The most simple reason is usually the right one- in this case there have literally not been any matches that have fit my criteria.
It is perhaps a surprise to read that, but some of the reasons were wanting to see what kind of form players are in, while a top tournament like the one being played in Madrid will have some very competitive matches that feel difficult to call.
Another reason is that the ATP Madrid event hadn't begun at the same time as the WTA one and so it is natural that there are fewer selections anyway.
Things look different on Tuesday 4th May and I do like the look of a number of matches on this day.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: A run to the Final in Istanbul and two solid wins in the main draw in Madrid will have given Elise Mertens plenty of belief in her ability to perform on the clay courts. However this is not a surface on which she has been able to produce her best tennis consistently and now she will be facing an opponent who is not only one of the best players on this surface on the WTA Tour, but one who has gotten the better of Mertens in their head to head.
Simona Halep is the current World Number 3, but she is entering one of her favourites part of the season. In general you would describe Halep has an all-court player, but her most consistent tennis has been played on the clay courts and she has looked strong in her two wins in Madrid after reaching the Stuttgart Semi Final.
I have little doubt that Halep will go into the French Open as one of the favourites, but this is still a match in which she will have to work hard to win. The serve has largely been working well for Halep, but the Romanian will be well aware of the returning qualities of Mertens which should fashion some break points for the latter and at least help her try and remain competitive.
Returning on the clay courts has been a huge strength for Simona Halep too and since 2017 she has produced four seasons in a row on this surface when she has won at least 50% of return points played in clay court matches. That is always going to exert a lot of pressure on opponents and it has been evident already this week having won two of the four sets played without losing a game.
Neither of these players have a dominant first serve, but the key for Simona Halep and Elise Mertens is to not allow the other to see too many second serves. That side of their tennis is going to be attacked by the other, but I do think Halep is the stronger all around player on the surface and also has the mental edge thanks to a 4-1 lead in their head to head matches.
The three previous head to head matches on the clay courts have all been won by Simona Halep and all in relatively routine fashion by the former World Number 1. Elise Mertens has really struggled in those matches and the numbers back that up with the Belgian struggling to protect the serve and not being able to get into the Halep service games as well as she would have liked.
There was at least some competitiveness to the last match they have played against each on the clay courts of Prague in 2020, but Simona Halep was still a fairly comfortable winner. I expect breaks of serve in this one for both players, but for Simona Halep to eventually showcase her superior comfort on the clay courts and break down Elise Mertens for a win and cover.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: After being a pretty solid, but unspectacular, clay courter, Aryna Sabalenka looks to have taken the next step in her development on the red dirt. We only have a small sample of matches played in 2021 on the clay, but Sabalenka reaching the Final in Stuttgart and producing two strong wins in Madrid should not be overlooked.
The run in Stuttgart is particularly impressive for the one-sided Semi Final win over Simona Halep, while Sabalenka took the first set against Ashleigh Barty before the former French Open Champion turned things around. While I have no doubt that Aryna Sabalenka will have been frustrated with her performance in the last two sets of the Final against Barty, I do think the Belarusian has picked up some valuable confidence and has looked really strong this week.
She takes on Jessica Pegula who has not really shown a lot of confidence when playing on the clay courts. A strong 2021 to this point is encouraging for Pegula, but there has been little clay court tennis played and her previous record on the surface offers little encouragement.
The win over Sorana Cirstea in the First Round is impressive considering Cirstea has won a title on the surface this season, but this is another level being stepped up by Jessica Pegula and she knows full well how tough it can be to beat Aryna Sabalenka on the clay before.
Last Autumn, Sabalenka crushed Jessica Pegula at the French Open for the loss of four games and she dominated the return of serve.
Jessica Pegula served well in her first win on the clay, but she did not return as well as she will need to in this match and I do think Sabalenka can put her under immense pressure in this Third Round match. It will be close with this spread being a pretty big one, but the Belarusian looks in very strong form and can get over the mark in a win.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Albert Ramos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madrid Masters Update: 7-7, - 1.90 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6.79% Yield)
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