The exception was the Golden State Warriors who did lose both games this week and saw the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies move into the PlayOffs at the expense of the team that finished with the Number 8 spot in the regular season.
That means the sixteen PlayOff teams have been confirmed and the First Round Series will begin on Saturday.
The first four games of all First Round Series will be played from this weekend through to the end of Bank Holiday Monday (in the United Kingdom) and I will use this thread for the Picks from those games.
A new thread will be created for any of the Series that need Game 5, 6 and potentially Game 7 to conclude their First Round PlayOff Series and I will add selections daily here.
I do love the NBA PlayOffs and I am looking forward to the next two months to decide the latest NBA Champion.
Saturday 22nd May
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: There has been some big talk coming out of the Milwaukee Bucks camp ahead of this First Round PlayOff Series as they look to earn a measure of revenge against the Miami Heat. Last season it was the Heat who upset the Number 1 Seeded Bucks inside the NBA Bubble, but this time we will have a 'proper' Series with home court advantage a real edge.
The pressure may be off for the Bucks having faltered in the PlayOffs as the Number 1 Seed in each of the last two seasons. That Seeding comes with a real sense of expectation, but the team is much more experienced now and some will have them below the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers when it comes to favouritism in the Eastern Conference and that can only bode well for Milwaukee.
Of course the statements that they pushed to be in a position to face the Miami Heat in the First Round is not something that will have been ignored by the veterans on the Heat roster. Last season they reached the NBA Finals with their gritty basketball style coming to the fore, but Miami have ended this season a little more banged up even if the results have continued to come.
They will use the 'disrespect' that the Bucks wanted to play them in the First Round as a big motivation tool and the feeling is that Jimmy Butler will be ready to suit up for Game 1 that takes place on Saturday to open the NBA PlayOffs.
Both teams have actually played well down the stretch, but this is a Series that is likely going to be decided by the role players. Giannis Antetokounmpo has not had his best games against the Miami Heat in the regular season, but he is going to be backed up by Jrue Holiday this time around and the Greek Freak is perhaps lowering the pressure on his team by suggesting things may not be different for the Bucks in the post-season this time around compared with the last couple of seasons.
Milwaukee have been lighting things up Offensively and a less than 100% Jimmy Butler may not be able to prop up the Miami Defensive unit like he would at full health. The Heat won't go away with their own Offensive rotations working really well over the last month of the regular season, but I do think the Bucks can come out with a statement making win.
Rebounding looks like being a big edge for the Bucks, but much of this Series may come down to the Miami three point shooters and whether they can get hot enough from the distance to take away the power on the glass Milwaukee have.
The Heat have seen enough to suggest they can and I do think this will be a tight Series, but Milwaukee beat Miami here last week when holding them to 41% from the field. Jimmy Butler did not play in that game and can offer Miami a boost, but Game 1 looks like an opportunity for Milwaukee while Butler is just shaking off a bit of rust.
I do think the number is a relatively big one and Miami are a dangerous team who showed in the Bubble last season how hot they can get. However, they have not been the best road underdog to back down the stretch with a 3-7 record against the spread in their last ten in that spot, while they are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against a team who have won at least 60% of their games played.
In saying that Milwaukee have not been a very good home favourite to back in recent weeks either, but they did cover as a 4 point favourite against Miami last week and I will look for the Bucks to come out hard and take Game 1 with a cover.
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 1 Pick: These teams are another pair that have been used to facing one another in the NBA PlayOffs and the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks meet in the First Round for the second season in a row. In the NBA Bubble the Mavericks surprised many by pushing the Clippers to six games before being banged up and worn down, but they surpassed most expectations.
That is not the case in the 2021 PlayOffs with the Mavericks entering the post-season as a team who genuinely believe they can have a big impact in the weeks ahead.
The First Round Series is a very difficult one for the Mavericks, but the players have to be motivated by what many perceive as the Los Angeles Clippers working their way into a position to face Dallas in the opening PlayOff Series. The Clippers would have moved up from the Number 4 Seeding if they had won either of their last two games, but somehow were beaten by the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder, two teams that have had a poor season.
It has been denied that the Clippers were deliberately 'tanking' those games, but the feeling is that Los Angeles did not want to be on the same side of the bracket as rivals the Los Angeles Lakers nor the Portland Trail Blazers and finishing as the Number 4 Seed has allowed them to do that.
The Clippers have suggested they were simply trying to make sure key players were fresh for the PlayOffs, but it does mean the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have not played for a number of days. That could lead to some rust for their top names, while some of the other key players in the rotation have been struggling for top health.
Last season the Dallas Mavericks showed how well they can match up with the Clippers and that was without Kristaps Porzingis for half of the Series. Luka Doncic is the key player for the Mavericks and he is capable of taking a game away from any opponent he faces, although my feeling is that the Clippers are likely to win this Series in six games.
However, I do think the Dallas Mavericks may be able to catch the Los Angeles Clippers cold in Game 1 and they can keep this one competitive. The sole meeting between these teams in the City of Angels saw the Mavericks blow out the Clippers, but that is largely irrelevant with it being played back in December and this is effectively a new season.
I have got a lot of time for the Clippers and I do think they are going to have a stronger post-season than they enjoyed in the NBA Bubble. However they are 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven as the favourite and they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as a PlayOff favourite and there are some mental demons to exorcise.
In recent games Dallas have been playing up and down to the level of opponent, but they will know they are playing one of the favourites to win the NBA Championship. I expect Doncic and Porzingis to have big outings and push the Clippers all the way and I like the underdog with the points even if they are to drop Game 1.
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Game 1 Pick: The first ever Play In Tournament winner was the Boston Celtics earlier this week when they saw off the Washington Wizards and secured the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They would have been pleased to do that without having the pressure to play a second game, but the Boston Celtics have been 'rewarded' with a First Round PlayOff Series against one of the favourites for the NBA Championship.
The Brooklyn Nets are still in that position despite the fact that we have not really seen their Big Three in action together for as long as most would have wanted to. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have all had various knocks and niggles through the regular season, but all three are ready to compete in the PlayOffs and have plenty of experience to fall back upon.
Teething problems could be evident, but all three players have spoken about putting aside their own statistical achievements to make sure the team are winning games. It has worked for the Nets to the point that they were able to finish up with the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference and they have shown enough to be considered one of the contenders to win it all.
Defensively the Nets have really found their groove and they have the mental edge over Boston having won all three regular season games against them. They've also gotten healthy at a time when the Boston Celtics have been banged up and the loss of Jaylen Brown may not have had an impact against the Washington Wizards, but it will be a factor in a best of seven Series.
There is a lot of pressure on Boston on the Offensive side of the court and I do think this is not a very good match up for them. Jayson Tatum will have moments and he is a definite star in the making, but it will be important for Kemba Walker to back up his performance against the Wizards and give Boston another shooting star.
Even then it is very difficult for the Celtics to keep up with the Nets who should have enough Offensively to wear down Boston. The pressure to keep up on the scoreboard will make it tough for the Celtics and I think that is where Brooklyn are likely to be strong favourites to effectively waltz through this Series.
This is a big number and Boston have been a very strong underdog to back with Brad Stevens as Head Coach. That has to be respected, but Boston are 1-5 against the spread in their last six following a win.
Brooklyn are well rested and I think their Big Three are going to be looking to come out and make a big statement in this opening game of the First Round Series. The Nets are 6-0 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite and they have covered the last six times the Boston Celtics have visited the Barclays Center.
I can see this game being competitive at times, but Brooklyn's superior Offensive power can see them surge clear and that can see them cover this mark too.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: A really strong end to the regular season helped the Portland Trail Blazers avoid dropping into the Play In Tournament and ten wins in twelve games means they will be feeling confident of their chances of overcoming the Denver Nuggets in the First Round Series. The Trail Blazers may be the lower Seed in the Series, but they are playing with the momentum that makes them dangerous.
You can add in the factor of the Nuggets being severely banged up and it is going to be a big test for Denver to match their run to the Western Conference Finals from the NBA Bubble last season. The Nuggets didn't limp into the PlayOffs, but they did lose half of their last eight games and they do feel like a vulnerable top three Seed.
Nikola Jokic has been a huge presence for the Nuggets and some believe he may win the regular season MVP award, and Denver will only go so far as Jokic can take them. There are some other key players that can make an impact in any given game, but the injury to Jamal Murray that has seen Denver lose one of their best players for the season is one that leaves them vulnerable.
Even without Murray, Denver have been dangerous Offensively and they can pose problems for the Portland Trail Blazers despite the improved form shown by the latter. The games could easily swing on which of the teams are most confident with their three point shot, but in recent games Portland have shown more consistency on the Offensive side of the court compared with Denver and that may spark the difference when they meet on Saturday in Game 1.
Portland also look like they can match up well with Denver by dominating the glass and when these teams met last Sunday in the regular season it was the Trail Blazers who secured 15 more boards than Denver. The Nuggets were more efficient with their shots, but it was Portland who had 11 more Field Goal attempts as they rounded out a 16 point win at home.
The Trail Blazers can back that up by winning on the road to steal Home Court from the Denver Nuggets. They are narrow underdogs, but Portland have covered in their last four against Denver, while they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight on the road.
Denver are 1-4 against the spread in their last five against a team with a winning record, while they are 4-8 against the spread when favoured by less than 3 points this season.
Sunday 23rd May
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 1 Pick: After losing the first Play In Tournament game, the Washington Wizards underlined the value of finishing in the top eight in the regular season as it meant having at least one more shot to reach the PlayOffs. They took full advantage of that by beating the Indiana Pacers handily, but the Wizards are now going to take on the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and they are big underdogs in this Series.
They visit the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 and winning games on this court is going to be a huge challenge for every team in the post-season. The 76ers have had a week to get healthy and they do look like they will go into Game 1 of this Series with their key players available.
It could make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things and especially if Washington are still hoping Bradley Beal can shake off the hamstring issues that have plagued him down the stretch. Russell Westbrook and Beal will need to be at their best if Washington are going to even extend this Series into a Game 5 or Game 6, but they perhaps do not match up that effectively with the 76ers.
Home Court is a big advantage for the 76ers in this Series, but the most telling player could be Joel Embiid who should dominate the paint at both ends of the court. Forcing Washington to rely on jumpers will be a huge advantage for Philadelphia who have been a strong Defensive team under Doc Rivers guidance this season and I expect we will see that in operation on Sunday.
I have been impressed with the Defensive intensity Washington have displayed in their strong run to the PlayOffs, but they are likely going to be dominated on the boards and not having an answer to Embiid could put them in foul trouble early in each Quarter. That will also open the floor to a talented group that surrounds Joel Embiid and I think the 76ers can win well.
Philadelphia have the mental edge having won all three regular season games between these teams, although it was Washington that covered the spread in the first two of those. The teams coming through the Play In Tournament are 0-1 against the spread in the opening PlayOff game that has been completed, but Washington won't be too worried about that right now.
The Wizards do have some strong trends behind them which makes it difficult to draw a line through them in Game 1, but I think Philadelphia will come out looking to make a statement. If they force Washington into relying on their jump shots I think the 76ers can begin to grind down their opponent and pull away for a comfortable win, although I imagine it will be tight through Three Quarters until the 76ers take total control.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns Game 1 Pick: A huge three pointer with seconds remaining from LeBron James helped the Los Angeles Lakers see off the Golden State Warriors in the first Play In Tournament played in the Western Conference earlier this week. It was a key win for the Lakers and the value was underlined when the Warriors were subsequently beaten in the elimination game against the Memphis Grizzlies and it was also key for allowing the Lakers to rest some of their better names.
LeBron James has been hurting and is clearly still not at 100%, but Anthony Davis is edging closer to full health and these two players are going to be very important for the defending Champions. The Lakers do have some decent role players around James and Davis, but ultimately they will only go so far as the health of their star players will take them.
Despite not being at his best, James made some big plays in the win over the Golden State Warriors and the experience of the Los Angeles Lakers is why so many have picked them to win this Series. It has not been an often occurrence in the NBA that the Number 7 Seed would be favoured to beat the Number 2 Seed in the PlayOffs, but the Lakers were long considered one of the more dangerous lower Seeds that would be heading into the post-season and especially if they are at 100%.
The Phoenix Suns are younger, but they do have some experience with Chris Paul coming in to help the roster know what needs to be done to take the next step. He was instrumental in helping the Suns lock up a top two Seed in the Western Conference, while Phoenix also have players like Devin Booker ready to take the next step in their own careers by producing big PlayOff moments like Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray have done.
For some time people have labelled Booker as a potential star in the NBA and he is going to be very important for Phoenix. They are still shooting the ball well, but in the PlayOffs you need to play better Defense if you are going to progress and that is going to be the challenge for the Phoenix Suns.
However, they may still be catching the Lakers at a good time with the visitors not quite at full health and I do think the excitement of the crowd and the youth on the side of the Suns can see them win Game 1. There will be plenty backing the Lakers to win the Series and that should also be a real motivation for the Phoenix Suns who did win two of the three regular season games between these teams.
The most recent was won by the Lakers in an upset, and they are in better shape than they were for that one, but Phoenix should be highly motivated to show why they did end up five places above the Lakers in the final Western Conference standings.
The Suns are 16-7-2 against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points, while the Lakers are only 3-4 against the spread as a small underdog this season.
Los Angeles are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog, and they are 2-12 against the spread in their last fourteen when coming in off a straight up win.
Phoenix have been a strong home favourite to back all season and I think they can use the crowd to help them edge past the favourites for this First Round Series.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: The New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks will both look back at the regular season in the 2020/21 season and feel they have overachieved compared with expectations. The Hawks were perhaps more expected to reach the post-season with the talent they have on the roster, but the New York Knicks would have been considered underdogs to even make the Play In Tournament.
Instead of that, the Knicks have finished in a position where they have secured a Home Court First Round Series in the PlayOffs and they are back in the post-season for the first time in eight seasons. There is a different sort of pressure on the New York Knicks in this one, although they will feel pretty good about their chances in this Series having beaten the Atlanta Hawks in all three regular season games.
There is a change in the mindset from those games though and that is the Knicks are favoured to win Game 1 at Madison Square Garden having been an underdog in the previous three games. The last two saw the Knicks as narrow underdogs so the slight shift in place should not be a major problem for a team that will feel like they are the underdog and playing with 'house money'.
The match up is a tight one for both of these teams and I would not be surprised if we need a Game 7 back here in the World's Most Famous Arena before the team that moves on is decided. The Atlanta Hawks will feel they have the talented Offensive players that can find spaces against what has been an incredibly disciplined New York Defensive unit, but on the other side of the court the Knicks may believe they can find a better consistency than the Hawks.
I really don't think there is much between the teams, but the Defensive edge and the regular season meetings edge may just lean towards the New York Knicks. In recent games the Knicks have found a groove from the three point arc and that could be important for them to earn the edge in Game 1 of a quality looking Series.
Atlanta have the capabilities of getting hot and the deeper rotation, but I am not sure they will be able to get over the line in this one. They have not been shooting the three ball as well as the Knicks and Defensive power can be so important in the PlayOffs when the refs do allow a little more physicality to be displayed by teams.
The Knicks have been a strong home team to back all season when they are set as the favourite, while the Atlanta Hawks have not covered in their last five on the road.
They are also 4-1 against the spread the last five times New York have hosted the Hawks and I think they take Game 1.
The line looks to have flipped late, but that should motivate the Knicks even more and I like them to find a way to win this opening game of the First Round Series.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Game 1 Pick: The top Seed in the Western Conference are the Utah Jazz who were considered one of the better teams in the NBA, but still surpassed expectations to lock up the Number 1 spot in the Conference. The team have some PlayOff experience and they have played well enough this season to believe this could be a special one, although the injury to Donovan Mitchell has hurt the roster.
There is every chance that Mitchell is going to be able to suit up for the opening game of the PlayOffs, but the Utah Jazz would love to find a way through this Series without extending their best player. The Jazz have continued to perform well without Donovan Mitchell, but once you get to this stage of the season you want every single one of your best players available for selection.
Even if Donovan Mitchell is able to suit up, you would have to expect he will be on some minutes limitations and the Jazz could be potentially vulnerable in their opening game of the PlayOffs. That is partly down to having a few days off between Game 1 and the end of the regular season, and also because they are facing a Memphis Grizzlies team that has to be feeling pretty good about themselves.
The Grizzlies are the only team that won two games to reach the PlayOffs having upset the Golden State Warriors on Friday and they can use that emotional bounce to look for an upset over the Number 1 Seed. Stealing home court will be tough, but the Grizzlies have to believe the first two games are going to be their best chance if there is any rust in the home locker room.
The Jazz did win all three of the regular season meetings, but two of those were won by a combined seven points. Defensively Memphis have been playing with a lot of intensity and that is going to give them an opportunity here, especially as their Offensive style has been one that has been working very well for them of late.
Utah are a team that is capable of getting very hot from the three point arc and that has been the foundation for their successes in the season. In recent weeks it has been tougher without Donovan Mitchell, but I think his return will make them dangerous, although I am convinced this Memphis team have the momentum to keep this one close.
Memphis are now 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven as the underdog and they have the momentum. In recent weeks Utah have been a touch over-rated at home which has led to a 3-7 record against the spread in their last ten here, and I think they could have a hard time covering such a number like this one.
It should be a tight and competitive and that suggests the Grizzlies can keep this one close enough to get within the number.
Monday 24th May
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: Both teams tried to impose their style on Game 1 of this First Round Series and in some ways the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks will feel they were pretty effective. However, it is the Bucks who came away with the narrow win and Game 2 is all about the adjustments that need to be made just two days after this First Round Series began.
It is a really important game for both teams- the Heat won't want to return home in a 0-2 hole against a higher Seeded team who are gunning for revenge. On the other side the Bucks know the mental edge will be lost if they drop Home Court advantage and have to go to South Beach in a 1-1 spot and much will depend on which of these teams is able to turn their weaknesses around.
In Game 1 it was clear where the Bucks and Heat had success and where they need to improve if they are going win this one. Amazingly Miami hit 15 more three pointers than Milwaukee on Saturday and still came up short which was largely down to the fact that Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler struggled to find their spaces and make their shots on the day.
Despite that huge three point discrepancy, Milwaukee dominated the paint and the glass and that made the difference in a narrow victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a tough season dealing with the Heat and had more issues on Saturday, but his team-mates stepped up for him, although the Greek Freak is going to need to make his plays to keep the Heat honest.
Miami have stated they have to be more effective from the three point arc to try and open things up for them to attack the rim, and that is down to the fact they hit 20/50 shots from that distance. While the total hit is a big number, the shots taken to get there meant Milwaukee could decide to pick off the boards and limit Adebayo's impact on the opening game.
An elbow injury to Antetokounmpo might raise some worries about his health for the rest of this Series, but the Bucks have a pretty solid rotation and that is important for them. Last season Milwaukee struggled to find effective shooting outside of their top player when losing to Miami in the PlayOffs, but they look like they could have more outside of Antetokounmpo in this Series and I do think that will eventually give them the edge.
However, the Bucks are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite and they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six following a loss.
I expect Miami to make the necessary adjustments in this Game 2 and they are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five after a straight up loss. The Heat are 4-1 against the spread in their last five in Milwaukee and I do think they are going to push the Bucks all the way again.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: They might have finished with a lower Seeding than their opponents, but the Portland Trail Blazers might have been considered the favourites ahead of this First Round PlayOff Series with the Denver Nuggets. That was before Game 1 was played over the weekend, but Portland backed the feeling up by taking away Home Court from the Nuggets as a narrow underdog on the night.
Once again the Trail Blazers are the underdog, but I am not sure they are being given the respect they deserve right now. This is one of the more in-form teams in the NBA going into the post-season and Portland do match up well with the Nuggets especially with Denver being short-handed.
Jamal Murray's injury that cost him the remainder of the season will have hurt Denver, but Will Barton has been missing and Portland look like they have the right methods to take them on. Barton is closing in on a return, but it will take him some time to get back to full health and shake off the ring rust, while Denver are going to need to find a way to improve on both ends of the court.
The Trail Blazers have made things very clear with their approach to this Series- they are going to allow Nikola Jokic to have his shots, but they are not going to allow Denver's big man to open the lanes and the shooting angles for his team-mates and in Game 1 the plan worked to perfection.
Of course you have to expect Denver to make adjustments and they will be hoping someone can step up and force Portland to change tactics. Michael Porter Jr can be that player, but the Trail Blazers have to be pretty happy with their approach and especially if they can continue to shoot lights out as they have been for a number of weeks now.
Injuries to the back court have hurt Denver and they simply do not match up well with CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard and much of this Game 2 feels like it comes to whether Portland remain warm from the field and not cool off significantly. They won pretty comfortably in Game 1 and Portland still feel they left points out there and I think they are a team that can win a second game in a row on the road and move into a position to move through to the Western Conference Semi Finals later this week.
The mental edge is with the Trail Blazers and they improved to 8-4 against the spread when set as an underdog of less than 3 points while Denver dropped to 4-9 against the spread in that spot.
I expect Denver to be better than they were on Saturday night, and they are a team that have bounced back from heavy losses effectively. Historically PlayOff teams coming off an upset loss at home that play at home in their next game have been very strong in the First Round Series and especially when they are a top three Seed like the Denver Nuggets.
The public look to be behind the Nuggets, but I think Portland are the better team in their current situations and the Trail Blazers will want to get into a strong position before Will Barton is back. Denver will push harder than they did in Game 1, but I will look for the underdog with the points to keep this one close and, in my opinion, win outright for the second time on the road.
Tuesday 25th May
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Game 2 Pick: There were some early PlayOff struggles for the Brooklyn Nets, but the subpar first half was replaced by a much stronger second half as they blew past the Boston Celtics. The underdog are going to be feeling pretty bad about themselves having held the Nets to 104 points in Game 1, 14 points lower than their season average, and I do think it is going to be tough for Boston to make a lot of adjustments.
There will be expectation of a better performance having shot the ball poorly in Game 1 and that may give Boston something to hold onto, but they can also expect the Nets to be much better Offensively. Neither team had as much success on that side of the court as they would have liked, but Brooklyn's Big Three are healthy and ready to go in this Series while the continued absence of Jaylen Brown is going to hurt the Celtics.
Jayson Tatum can step up for the Celtics and Brooklyn may even accept that he is going to get his numbers, but Tatum will be well aware that others have to find their shots. If that happens it does open the door for Tatum to have a big game, but the more his team-mates struggle the more likely it is that Brooklyn will have all eyes on Boston's best player and make sure he is contested every time he looks to make plays.
The absence of Jaylen Brown is also hurting Boston on the Defensive side of the court and they can't expect James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to have difficulties as they did in Game 1. Those three began to find their groove in the second half during which time the Nets scored 17 points more than the Boston Celtics to blow open the first game in this First Round Series, but I do think the Nets can open Game 2 in stronger form.
Boston will look for Jayson Tatum to come into his own, but they look short handed and the Celtics could be in a big hole by the end of Tuesday evening.
The Celtics have lost all four games played against the Brooklyn Nets this season and three of those have come by double digits.
Both teams have performed well in the home favourite/road underdog spot, but Brooklyn have covered the last seven at home against Boston. While the first two Game 2's have been covered by the team that failed to do so in Game 1, I think Brooklyn can have an all around stronger performance and eventually overwhelm Boston Offensively and cover the number in this one too.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns Game 2 Pick: Despite the feeling that the Los Angeles Lakers are the favourites to come through this First Round PlayOff Series, they were underdogs in Game 1 and were duly beaten by the Phoenix Suns. The Lakers were pretty disgusted with their own performance having scored just 90 points, but the Phoenix Suns have to feel there is going to be a big reaction from a team who bounced back from a couple of Game 1 defeats in the PlayOffs last season.
The layers seem to believe the same with the Lakers now favoured to win Game 2 and shift the momentum of this Series by stealing Home Court away from the inexperienced Suns. That inexperience could potentially be even more evident on Tuesday as Phoenix could be without Chris Paul or at least have a limited Point Guard playing for them.
Chris Paul was banged up in Game 1, but he was not having a dominant performance. Even then, Paul is a valuable player on the Phoenix roster as he can just remind his younger team-mates how to deal with the ups and downs that come with any PlayOff Game and Series.
LeBron James was also banged up in Game 1 to add to the health issues he has dealt with all season, but he should be able to shake things off and look to turn things around for the Lakers. Game 1 was not James' finest moment in the PlayOffs, but historically LeBron has saved his best for when his team really needs him the most and I have to expect one of the best players of all time to come out hot in Game 2.
The big question for Phoenix is how they will handle LeBron James at his best, but the attitude could be to keep the rest of the Lakers rotation struggling. Anthony Davis had a really poor Game 1 by the standards he has set in the NBA, and the rest of the team struggled to 43% shooting from the field and were dominated on the glass.
The focus is very much on the adjustments that the Los Angeles Lakers will make, but Phoenix will believe they were not at their very best in Game 1 and also have room for improvement. Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton impressed, but the team were below par in their shooting and will definitely believe there is better to come from their three point marksmen.
A switch in the favourite from Game 1 to Game 2 shows there is a reaction expected, but the Lakers are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite. The Lakers are also 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine road games and they are 6-13-1 against the spread in their last twenty played in the desert.
Phoenix have not only played well against teams with winning records, but they are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home underdog.
The Suns might miss Chris Paul somewhat, but I do think the veteran will suit up and can keep his younger team-mates grounded. All of the pressure is on the Lakers and, while they have proved they can deal with that by winning the NBA Championship last season, I do think the Phoenix Suns have played well all season and will be plenty motivated to prove the naysayers wrong by finding a way to secure a second home win.
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 2 Pick: Home Court has been lost by the Los Angeles Clippers, but this is not the time to panic when all around them may be losing their heads.
Last season the Clippers disappointed in the PlayOffs, but that experience should mean the team are able to move past Game 1 and be ready to compete and ensure the Series is level before heading to The Lone Star State for two games. They will know anything less than their best effort is going to leave them vulnerable to a Dallas Mavericks team who felt they would have beaten the Clippers in the NBA Bubble last season if not for injuries and who are much healthier going into this Series.
In Game 1 the Dallas Mavericks used Luka Doncic to inspire them to a victory, but the game was much closer than the final score and the Clippers will feel they allowed the Mavericks to take control late. Too many poor decisions were made by the Clippers on both ends of the court, but I do expect they will make some big adjustments to closing out Game 2 and that may see them turn the tables.
One of the key adjustments will be to trust one another and that means making the extra pass to find the open shooter than take contested shots. It was one of the reasons the Clippers struggled from the three point arc in Game 1 and I do think they will be stronger from that range which can see this game swing back in their favour.
Dallas were very good from the three point arc in Game 1 and I think the Mavericks will need to make some adjustments. Luka Doncic is likely to see Kawhi Leonard across from him in this one rather than allowing Patrick Beverley to be outclassed by him and Leonard has the length and Defensive nous to at least limit the impact the young player can make.
Kristaps Porzingis could have a better game without Leonard in front of him, but his consistency can be questioned and I do think the changes likely to be made by the home team can give them the edge.
Teams coming in off an upset loss at home and then playing at home again have been strong at bouncing back and the Denver Nuggets won in that situation on Monday. In today's NBA, the three point swings can make all the difference and the feeling is that the Clippers will be better from that range and Dallas may not hit their marks as efficiently as they were in Game 1.
The bounce of the ball off the glass should see the Clippers make it closer on the rebounding numbers too and the motivation is on the side of the favourites. Dallas would love to make sure the Clippers don't get off the floor, but they have Home Court and the adjustments favour the home team here.
Los Angeles tend to be over-rated, but the Clippers have covered the last five times in the game following one in which they have been blown out at home and I think they bounce back on Tuesday to level this First Round Series.
Wednesday 26th May
Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 2 Pick: It was not a perfect performance and there are plenty of things that could go differently in Game 2, but that has to be a bigger worry for the Washington Wizards rather than the Philadelphia 76ers. The favourites in this Series and the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference know there is plenty of room for improvement for them as they go forward, but Philadelphia fans have to be feeling good after watching their team win Game 1.
Early foul trouble took away Joel Embiid for much of the first half, but the big player for the Philadelphia 76ers showed how dominant he could be in the minutes he had on the court. Once again you have to say that Embiid is a match up nightmare for the Washington Wizards and their best approach may be to attack him and hope the referees are calling more fouls on him to keep Embiid from impacting this Game in a greater and more prolonged fashion.
Dominating the paint and having Joel Embiid getting to the rim consistently is going to hurt the Washington Wizards and force them to have to break down a Philadelphia team that are set up Defensively. Fast breaks are essential for the Wizards to try and break down the 76ers over the course of this game, but it is a tough task and Washington have continued to struggle Defensively which makes it hard to believe they can make this a tight Series.
Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook are a very good Offensive tandem, but the pressure ramps up on these two and especially if Philadelphia can carry the momentum over from their second half showing in Game 1. After the slow start as they tried to make up for Embiid's time on the bench, the 76ers dominated much of the second half and proved they do have a real match up edge over Washington.
The big task for the Wizards is finding a way to slow down Philadelphia Offensively, but that looks beyond them.
If Joel Embiid is going to be dominant inside the paint, Washington won't be able to challenge the Philadelphia shooters and that should only help the home team secure a more comfortable win than in Game 1 despite that being a pretty comfortable one by the end.
Both teams have strong trends like they did before Game 1 and Washington have played well coming in off a straight up loss. The Wizards did cover in Game 1, but barely and they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten in Philadelphia and I am expecting a stronger all around performance from the home team to move into a 2-0 lead in the Series.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: The first game of what many consider to be the tightest Series in the First Round of the PlayOffs went back and forth throughout the 48 minutes played between the New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks. No matter who lost there would have been some real disappointment in the losing camp, but on the flip side there is going to be a massive boost for the winner.
That winner was Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks and there is no doubt that a hungry Madison Square Garden crowd are going to be looking to get on the back of the star player for the Hawks. Trae Young hit the game winner with seconds remaining in Game 1 and he let the crowd know all about it, but the fans are likely going to want to rattle his cage again in Game 2.
Ultimately they can have an impact, but the New York Knicks players have to knuckle down and avoid falling into a 0-2 hole before heading to Atlanta for two games later this week. A 0-2 deficit is one that very few NBA teams have been able to overcome in the PlayOffs and especially when both games are dropped at home so there is a pressure on the Knicks to respond.
All eyes will be on Julius Randle who had a disappointing Game 1, but Randle has been so good this season that you have to expect a much better all around effort in Game 2. In the three regular season games against the Atlanta Hawks, Julius Randle averaged 37 points and he was under half that total in Game 1 while taking bad shots and perhaps pushing too far.
The Knicks will be looking to make the adjustments to try and get Randle back on track, while they are also going to look to double down on the Defensive effort. Nerlens Noel is banged up which is a real problem, but I do think the Knicks can bounce back having lost Game 1 in what was a very close game anyway.
I have little doubt that the Atlanta Hawks will be feeling good about their chances and they did build a big first half lead which will offer further encouragement to how they can match up with a team that swept the regular season meetings. The Hawks had a pretty steady three point shooting game in Game 1, but they have to believe the Knicks will contest those better than they did and Trae Young may be given extra attention after his late performance.
Turnovers played a key part in Game 1 too and that is another area where the New York Knicks will look to be cleaner all around which could see them at least level this Series.
The New York Knicks are 14-5 against the spread in their last nineteen games after a straight up loss. A late momentum shift in the odds saw the New York Knicks enter Game 1 as the favourite and the Atlanta Hawks have not covered in their last seven in the PlayOffs against a team who are favoured to win after losing as a favourite.
I am expecting another very close game decided in the Fourth Quarter, but this time I think the Knicks just lock down in the final minutes and find a way to win and cover.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Game 2 Pick: A late decision put a franchise and their star player at odds, but things have calmed down in the last couple of days and everyone seems to be back on the same page. Donovan Mitchell was supposed to start for the Utah Jazz in Game 1 of this First Round Series having missed multiple games to close out the regular season, but surprisingly he was scratched hours before tip off.
Many of the Utah roster admitted they were caught out by the decision made by the team, although that is not the reason the Jazz were beaten by the Memphis Grizzlies to fall 0-1 down in this Series. Of course you are always going to miss a player like Donovan Mitchell, and his return in Game 2 is going to be massive for the Jazz, but a poor shooting night and foul trouble for Rudy Gobert contributed to the defeat and Utah have to get back on track completely.
You do have to imagine the Jazz are going to be better from the three point arc than they were in Game 1, especially when you think how far below their season totals they were. Add in the return of Mitchell and there are going to be plenty more open looks and it is up to the Jazz to settle in and make their plays in much stronger fashion than they did this past weekend.
I don't want to be disrespectful to the Memphis Grizzlies who stepped up and showed they deserved their spot in the PlayOffs by winning Game 1 having come through the Play In Tournament. The Grizzlies are a young team, but players like Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks believe they should be playing and winning games at this level which makes them dangerous, although they should find the paint a little more clogged up if Gobert can avoid having to spend large stretches on the bench.
The Grizzlies have also played the Utah Jazz competitively all season and that will make them believe they are capable of securing a surprising 2-0 lead in the First Round Series.
However, you do have to think the crowd are going to be given a big boost by seeing Donovan Mitchell suited up, as are his team-mates, and especially after the reports that came out after Game 1. I did suggest a few days ago that Mitchell is going to be rusty having been off the court for as long as he has, but I do think his return will impact the rest of the team in a much stronger way after the way it was mishandled ahead of Game 1.
I expect Utah to be much more focused on matters on the court and the season suggests they will right the shooting from the three point arc which gives them the edge in Game 2.
Memphis will battle hard, as young players do, but the feeling is they have already managed to do what they wanted in the first two games and that is steal Home Court.
The Grizzlies are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games when coming in off a straight up win and I think the Utah Jazz will shoot much more efficiently and square this Series up with a big win.
Thursday 27th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: A blow out in Game 2 followed a narrow win in Game 1 and both add up to the Milwaukee Bucks leading 2-0 in this First Round Series. They look to have learned plenty from the defeat to the Miami Heat in the NBA Bubble last summer, but the Heat reached the NBA Finals in Orlando and won't be panicking just yet.
They do need a big reaction from their best players though, and mentally Miami are trying to stay strong knowing the Milwaukee Bucks have simply held serve by winning both games so far in the Series. However, the Miami Heat are under pressure to respond and at least give the Bucks something to think about and that means finding a way to challenge this team on the boards having been crushed in both games played so far.
A return home should be a boost for Miami and especially as they are likely going to have some big crowds to play in front of. They are also facing a Milwaukee team who have not been as strong on the road as they have been at home this season, although the fact that the Bucks have won both games in different fashions has to be a real concern for the Heat and how they can make the adjustments to turn this Series back around.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have really struggled to have an impact in this Series and the Heat's three point shooting was placed in the shade by the barrage they faced from the Bucks in Game 2.
It certainly makes it very difficult to back the Miami Heat, but I would expect a strong opening reaction from the narrow home underdog and historically it was a spot in which the home team could be backed with real success.
Take away the NBA Bubble games which really were very unique and teams that are down 0-2 in the NBA PlayOffs and playing the next game at home have started games very strongly. In fact those teams are 72-40-8 against the spread against the first half number since 2007, although it is a trend that has garnered enough attention that the layers are perhaps getting on top of it.
The theory works in that the home team is desperate, playing with plenty of energy in the first half in front of their own fans and I do think that is a position Miami can relate to. Add in the fact that the Bucks are just 20-16 on the road in the 2020/21 season and I do think the Miami Heat can make a strong start in this game.
Miami have played well on the rest they have ahead of this Game 3 on Thursday, and I do think they have enough players that can respond to the awful showing in Game 2. I think the overall game spread is hard to read, but the Heat can keep up a popular trend by coming out very fast and looking to smack the Bucks back in the face after the blow out and it may result in a first half cover for the home team.
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: There was always going to be a reaction from the Los Angeles Lakers having lost the first game of this First Round Series, but the Phoenix Suns will be wondering what might have been. They were trailing by a point with a few minutes left in Game 2, but the Suns made some poor decisions and the Lakers key players stepped up to ensure the Series is split 1-1 when we head to Los Angeles for two games.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis scored all seven points to take the game away from the Phoenix Suns at the end of the Fourth Quarter and the Lakers are now the favourites once again. Not many were doubting their ability to get back into this Series, but the Phoenix Suns can remind those watching that they are not going to be giving up easily.
The Suns may have to do without Chris Paul though with the banged up veteran a hindrance rather than a help as he bid to fight through a shoulder issue which was picked up in the Game 1 win over the Lakers. Unfortunately injuries in the PlayOffs has become something that Paul has dealt with far too often in his career, but the Suns will recognise that resting him may be a better decision in the hope he can return later in the Series.
Chris Paul really struggled in the minutes played in Game 2, but Phoenix will be encouraged by how their young players performed even if they ultimately came up short. Those performances will give Phoenix some hope as they look to steal Home Court back from the Lakers, although the layers do feel the Lakers may be able to pull away from here.
It was the difference in rebounding numbers from Game 1 to Game 2 which ultimately changed the outcome of the result, while Phoenix have to find a little more consistency Offensively. At this moment the Lakers have been struggling on that side of the court themselves and it has all the makings of another competitive game that could be decided very late on.
Phoenix are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine as the road underdog and they are 11-3 against the spread in their last fourteen following a straight up loss.
They are facing a Los Angeles Lakers team that is 7-19 against the spread in their last twenty-six games following a straight up win, and who have not covered in their last four as the home favourite. There is plenty of experience that the Lakers can call upon and they know exactly how and when they should turn on the afterburners if they have an opponent on the back foot, but this feels like a game where the Suns are being disrespected by the number.
The Suns have not really had a lot of success in Los Angeles against the Lakers in recent times, but I think this young team will want to show they are not going to fall away after one setback. The first two spreads were tight, but this one looks like giving the underdog too many points and I think the Suns keep this one competitive even if they do come up short.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: Both the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers have earned comfortable wins over the other in the opening two games of this First Round Series, but Portland will be happier at 1-1. The first two games were both played in Denver and the Trail Blazers have a big chance to take complete command of the First Round Series when hosting the next two games.
The feeling in the Portland camp was that Damian Lillard was not really surprised by the adjustment made by the Denver Nuggets who decided Aaron Gordon would guard him in the second half. It made all the difference as it significantly cooled down the hot-shooting Lillard after a strong first half showing, but Portland should be able to make a better adjustment to things in Game 3.
Overall it was a Game 2 in which Denver won the fine margins as they pulled away for a win to level the Series, but they remain short-handed and the feeling is that Portland control the destiny of this match up. As long as the Trail Blazers can continue to find the hot hand, they should have too much Offensively for a Denver team still missing some key players and waiting for the return of Will Barton.
It will likely come down to which of the two teams is able to find their three point shooting the best and that is where the Portland Trail Blazers may have a slight edge. Consistency is the key and the Trail Blazers look to have more reliable shooters from that mark which can help them just get over the line in this one.
The favourite has switched in this Series with the Trail Blazers now expected to win at home having been set as the road underdog in both games played in Denver. Being an underdog has not really sat well with Denver who are 6-10 against the spread in that spot this season.
The Nuggets are also 1-5 against the spread in their last six against the Portland Trail Blazers and have to expect a reaction from Game 2.
Portland have not always been a team you can trust as the home favourite, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven when coming in off a double digit loss. The blow out loss in Game 2 will remind Portland that they cannot take anything for granted in this Series, and I also expect that to inspire them to make the slight adjustments to just get on top of the Denver Nuggets again.
With the three point shooting of both teams, a spread like this one should not be an issue for the Trail Blazers to cover if they win and I think they can do that.
Friday 28th May
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Game 3 Pick: There were definitely moments in Game 2 when it looked like the Atlanta Hawks were going to pull away and take complete control of this First Round Series. After the late win in Game 1, momentum was with the Hawks and they built a big lead with the New York Knicks once again struggling to find enough Offensive power from their starters.
Like in Game 1, the Knicks turned to the bench and had considerable success, while adjustments at half time prevented Trae Young having the same impact he had been in the first half. Julius Randle still has room in which he can produce his best on the court, but the rest of the Knicks made up for their top player struggling and they were very strong at both ends of the court to level up the Series.
Now we head to Atlanta for two games and it is a big weekend coming up for both teams with this Series feeling finely balance. So far it has felt like the Hawks have the better starting unit, but the New York bench and the over-performance of this team all season has created a resilient and deep bunch of players that simply don't know when they are beaten.
After taking Game 2 the Knicks will feel they still have something of a mental edge over the Atlanta Hawks following the regular season sweep of the series. Only the first of the five games played between these teams in the 2020/21 season was played in Atlanta though and the Knicks won narrowly as a fairly big underdog.
Adjustments have to be made by the Hawks who have felt they have been too quick to settle for a three point shot rather than go through their progressions on the Offensive side of the court, although some credit has to be given to the Knicks Defensive unit which has been their strength all season. Being back at home could make the world of difference for the Hawks though despite dropping the game to the Knicks in early January and that is not only because they are going to be playing a PlayOff game in front of their own fans.
The Hawks have won nineteen of their last twenty-one home games including the last eleven in a row and that cannot be underestimated. They will also feel it will be easier to play with a lead without having to deal with the Madison Square Garden crowd and you can understand why the Hawks are considerable favourites to move into a 2-1 lead.
I do think they deserve to be favourites, but New York are going to be confident their Defensive schemes will hold out and much is going to come down to how well Julius Randle and the rest of the Knicks can play on the Offensive side of the court. The Knicks have also dominated the boards in the first two games and that can be a key factor in games that are coming down to the wire.
The Knicks are 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven as the road underdog, while they are also 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen when playing with just a single day of rest between games.
Atlanta have to be respected with a strong record as the home underdog, but they are just 5-15-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one games against the Knicks and this may be a number that is one or two points too big for the favourite to cover even if they win.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: The theory is that a team under the pressure of being in a 2-0 hole and returning home to play Game 3 will be come out with intensity and passion as they look to get back into the Series. For a long time it would have been wise to back those teams at half time and it was a trend that really did work, but the Miami Heat were blown out wire to wire by the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday and you do worry for the Boston Celtics.
Even before this First Round Series began the feeling was the Celtics did not match up very well with the Brooklyn Nets and especially not without Jaylen Brown. Jayson Tatum has not really impacted the first two games in the way he would have liked either and he played less than half the minutes of Game 2 after taking a shot to the eye, although it is not expected to keep him out of Game 3.
Both games have resulted in comfortable Brooklyn wins and they have dominated since the first half of Game 1 was completed. The Nets have gotten their Big Three coming together very nicely, but they have also shut down the Boston Celtics on the Defensive side of the court and it feels like a long road back for the Celtics.
They can make adjustments before Game 3 and the Series shifts to Boston so the home crowd are likely to be a factor, but all in all it feels really difficult for the Celtics to compete. In the regular season the Nets had not been the best Defensive team out there, but if the Boston Celtics can't do much on that side of the court this is going to be a Series that won't need Game 5 or beyond to be completed.
We will see how the Brooklyn Big Three respond when they are involved in tougher Series than this one, but so far they have shown a real willingness to move the ball and find the open shooter. That was really evident in the Game 2 blow out of the Celtics and I imagine the pressure will be on the Boston Defensive unit to get out and challenge those shooters better than they have so far in this Series.
It just feels a really difficult test for the Celtics and they might find it tough to lay a glove on the Brooklyn Nets in this one. Head Coach Steve Nash will be reminding his players that the Milwaukee Bucks are on the verge of sweeping into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals and he will want his Nets to do the same before those teams likely meet and that means coming out and silencing the home crowd as soon as possible.
Boston have to be better Offensively than we have seen in this Series, but the gap looks like one that will be tough to bridge.
The Celtics will have to contend with a Brooklyn team that are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as a road favourite and one that looks capable of a third straight double digit victory in this Series.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: The top players and the Head Coach have suggested they are unconcerned with being in a 0-2 hole, but the Los Angeles Clippers are in a historically bad spot. Not many NBA PlayOff teams have recovered from this deficit in a best of seven Series, but even fewer have done so after dropping the first two games at home which is the situation facing the Clippers as they look to begin to save their season on Friday.
There would have been some motivation in the Dallas Mavericks camp seeing the Clippers tank the end of their regular season to fall into the Number 4 spot in the Western Conference. The main reason would have been avoiding the Los Angeles Lakers until the Conference Finals rather than wishing to face the Mavericks, who gave the Clippers plenty to think about in the NBA Bubble PlayOffs last season, but the Dallas players will have been playing to make a statement.
They have done just that by outperforming the Los Angeles Clippers at key moments in the first two games of the Series and finding plenty of hot hands to help Luka Doncic out. It has been difficult for the Clippers to try and shut down the Mavericks on the Defensive side of the court which has put pressure on their own role players to step up and help Kawhi Leonard and Paul George who have both been as good as advertised.
Los Angeles may need Leonard to really pick up his play on the Defensive side of the court if they are going to get into this Series and it is a big test for the Clippers on Friday evening. They simply cannot afford to drop into a 0-3 hole and the Clippers will be feeling the heat of the media behind them having seen rivals the Lakers respond like Champions should ever since dropping Game 1 to the Phoenix Suns.
If they can just force one or two of the Dallas role players to second guess themselves this Series is one that can still be turned around and I still have some slight faith in the Clippers being better than what they have shown so far. Defensively you have to believe they will have been working on doing that, while the Offensive side of the court is actually not working badly.
The truth is it is hard to trust a Clippers team that have been over-rated by the layers for some time and that is shown up in their poor record against the spread down the stretch. There are plenty of positive trends that will make the Dallas Mavericks an appealing home underdog to back here, but the Clippers have the talent to win on the road and they are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight trips to Dallas.
I might have a bit too much belief in a team that was built to win a Championship, but I do think Leonard and George can inspire a big road performance to keep the Clippers hopes alive for a few more days. They came close to beating the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 and I do think Dallas are due a slightly cooler shooting night which can swing the momentum for the Clippers in what should be another pretty high-scoring game.
Saturday 29th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: There was a lot of anticipation about this Series and how close it could become and nothing changed after the Milwaukee Bucks narrowly defeated the Miami Heat in Game 1. After losing in the PlayOffs to the Heat last season, that narrow win suggested Miami had a way of playing the Milwaukee Bucks and would push them all the way, but things have panned out very differently.
The Bucks have not only won the last two games to move to the brink of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, but they have absolutely crushed the Miami Heat in those games. The margin of victories in the last two games have been 34 points and 29 points and there has literally been nothing the Miami Heat have been able to do to impact things on either side of the court.
A gentleman's sweep is possible here, but it is very difficult to know how the Miami Heat can make the adjustments needed to turn things around. They have struggled and the feeling will be of real disappointment as the Heat have dropped into this 0-3 hole, one in which teams have not been able to recover historically.
Milwaukee are able to do what they like and they have dominated the boards, but in the last two games they have really turned the screw Offensively while giving up very little on the other side of the court. It was only a huge, heavy dose of three point shooting successes that helped the Miami Heat even get close to the upset in Game 1 and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks will be looking to get a few days rest into the legs by securing the sweep and not having to host Miami in a Game 5 on Tuesday.
These teams have played four times since May 15th and Milwaukee have not only won all of those, but three have been in blow out wins.
There are some negative trends that the Milwaukee Bucks are holding, but the Miami Heat are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog. I do think the Bucks have the momentum behind them and even the loss of Donte DiVincenzo is unlikely to be felt in this Series, although a bigger issue for when the Bucks begin their Eastern Conference Semi Final Series later this week.
Teams that have lost three in a row in the NBA PlayOffs First Round Series have struggled to be competitive when looking to turn things around and I think the Bucks can cover again as they complete revenge and the sweep over the Miami Heat.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 4 Pick: A huge performance from Austin Rivers in the Fourth Quarter of Game 3 proved to be the difference as the Denver Nuggets regained Home Court advantage in this First Round Series. They have moved 2-1 in front of the Portland Trail Blazers, but Game 4 is played in Portland too and I expect the home team to have a reaction to back to back losses.
Game 3 was a close contest and it was only the hot shooting from Rivers in the final Quarter that prevented the Trail Blazers from taking the lead in the Series. Once again Portland will be looking to contain the role players for the short-handed Denver Nuggets, although adjustments will have to be made on the Offensive side of the court too as the Trail Blazers have just cooled down at the wrong time.
This is very much a Series that looks like it could be determined by the three point shooting successes of either team. In the last game, the Trail Blazers just lost their momentum at the wrong time and Damian Lillard will be looking to be a little more consistent with his play even though the numbers have remained very strong.
Nikola Jokic is likely to be named regular season MVP shortly and his play has been very important for the Nuggets that knocked down 20 three pointers in the last game. His presence in the paint has forced Portland to double down on Jokic, but the passing ability and getting opponents into foul trouble having only made things easier for Denver.
The momentum is with the Denver Nuggets, but the Portland Trail Blazers were playing really well down the stretch and they are looking to bounce back from the upset defeat in Game 3. Teams off an upset and playing at home in their next game in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have tended to respond positively and the feeling is that Portland will be able to make the adjustments they need.
I do have to respect the Denver Nuggets and the kind of reaction they are getting from their role players, but Michael Porter Jr and Austin Rivers have yet to show the consistency the Nuggets would like. I do think they can push the Portland Trail Blazers and it may come down to which of these teams shoot the ball best in the Fourth Quarter, but Portland should react to the last defeat and can edge past this number.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards Game 3 Pick: Game 1 ended in a relatively comfortable Philadelphia 76ers win over the Washington Wizards, but the second half momentum carried over to Game 2 which resulted in a blow out victory for the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They may have to wait a few days to find out any potential Semi Final opponent, but the 76ers won't care about that and the sole focus is to make sure they finish off the Wizards as soon as possible.
There really has been no answer for the 76ers on the Defensive side of the court and they have scored at least 120 points in both games won in this Series so far. It could have been more if the 76ers had not decided to give some of their starters a bit of rest after dominating Game 2 and they should be ready to handle what is likely to be a desperate Washington team.
I have to respect the level Washington have played at down the stretch to move into the PlayOffs, but you do have to wonder what kind of adjustments the Wizards can make to challenge Philadelphia. They are in a desperate 0-2 hole and returning home where the Wizards will be looking to be pushed by the home crowd, but Bradley Beal cannot do it all by himself and there is likely to be pressure on him.
Bradley Beal has stepped up and made some big plays in the Series, but he could be without his running mate Russell Westbrook who picked up an injury in Game 2. That didn't stop a 76ers fan from incensing Westbrook when pouring popcorn on his head as he was leaving the court, but the injury is also one that looks like limiting Westbrook at best or meaning he cannot suit up in Game 3 at worst.
Either way the 76ers look to have all the answers for the Washington Wizards who have struggled Defensively for much of the season.
The Wizards secured the Number 8 Seed, but this is a position that has struggled once the Number 1 Seed has gotten on top of them and I think that is the case here.
Philadelphia are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last thirteen as the road favourite, and I don't think Washington are going to be helped if Russell Westbrook cannot suit up. It should be closer than Game 2, but Philadelphia can move to the brink of making the Eastern Conference Semi Finals by riding out the early storm and once again imposing themselves and their game on this Wizards team.
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Pick: After stealing Game 1, the Memphis Grizzlies had to be aware that the Utah Jazz were going to come out with a real desperation in Game 2. The return of Donovan Mitchell was another inspiration for the Jazz as they looked to level up the First Round Series and ultimately it was Utah who came out on top before heading to Memphis for two games.
Despite that, the headlines were actually made by Ja Morant who scored 47 points in just his second proper PlayOff Game and who showed his team-mates what he is willing to go through to win games for the Grizzlies. An aggressive attacking attitude really helped Morant to get himself into the paint and make his shots even after Rudy Gobert had made a couple of big blocks to protect the area for the Jazz.
The Grizzlies are going to be looking for more of the same from Morant and they showed they don't match up terribly with the the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference. They took a barrage of big shots early and often in Game 2, but Memphis did not stop coming and will have shown the Jazz that this Series is far from over even though the top Seed have their key players back.
Memphis will need the bench to contribute much more than they did in the last game if they are going to upset the odds, but with Morant they have a player who is capable of going shot to shot with the Utah Jazz. That is important for the Grizzlies when they need to find some big buckets, but they will have to get out and challenge the Jazz at the three point line and hope some of the role players have cooled down after a strong Game 2.
The atmosphere is going to be different with Memphis now holding home court after the two games in Utah, but the Grizzlies will have to come out faster than they have in the first two in the Series.
The Grizzlies have covered in their last five as the home underdog and they are 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight when coming in off a loss by double digits.
I am expecting a reaction from the Memphis Grizzlies being back at home and Utah should be slightly cooler shooting the three ball which suggests this game will be a little tighter than Game 2.
Sunday 30th May
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Pick: As far as the New York Knicks are concerned, the Julius Randle struggles cannot continue to occur if they are going to turn this First Round Series around. Ultimately they do not have the Offensive firepower outside of Randle to make up for his lack of an impact on this Series and there is only so much Derrick Rose can do on his own.
Inconsistencies Offensively have been made more evident by the Knicks struggles on the Defensive side of the court where the depth of the Atlanta Hawks is proving a little too much. In Game 3 on their home court, the Hawks really found their rhythm and they did not need Trae Young to do things on his own with the role players beginning to knock down the three pointers that made the difference on the day.
In saying that, the Knicks have proven to be gritty and determined and that has been the main reason they have not been blown out too often. Even when they have fallen into a hole, the Knicks have fought back to give the Hawks something to think about, although there is a question about adjustments that need to be made.
In the last game, the decision was made to shake up the starting line up, but bringing Derrick Rose in hurt the bench and it was their issues that saw the Knicks fall into a big hole at half time. They showed flashes of coming back into things, but the Knicks could not make enough stops and there are some questions that need to be answered.
Atlanta have been very good at home and you can understand why many will expect them to move into a 3-1 lead in this First Round Series. However, the Knicks have shown all season that they won't let a defeat see their heads drop and they are 15-5 against the spread in their last twenty following a defeat and 5-1 against the spread in their last six when that loss has come by double digits.
I really have to admire how well the Hawks have played in this Series and the performance in Game 3 was a very good one, but even then they only earned an 11 point win. They shot really well on the night, but I think New York have shown they can pick up the Defensive intensity and it will be up to the bench to just stay with Atlanta to keep this one close.
It feels like the Series is still up for grabs, and the New York Knicks can play with a lot of intensity to try and take this one back to Madison Square Garden all level. We are getting to the point where it is hard to imagine Julius Randle turning around his personal level, but the Knicks can rally around him and keep this one competitive.
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: This First Round Series has swung on one moment for the young Phoenix Suns and that was when Chris Paul's injury issues in the PlayOffs reared up once again. The Suns held on for a win in Game 1 during which Paul picked up a shoulder injury and there is no doubt the veteran has been limited in the last couple of games.
At the same time the defending Champions the Los Angeles Lakers have just knuckled down with their own level of performance and have looked close to their best in winning both games. Anthony Davis and LeBron James have had injury issues all season, but both are looking good and finding their spots on the court, while also breaking down what they are getting from the Suns.
It has led to two strong wins for the Lakers and you do have to wonder how an inexperienced team like the Phoenix Suns can turn things around. At least with a healthy Chris Paul you could make a case for them, but the injury looks to have knocked the Suns completely out of sync and I do think they are feeling it desperately.
There is a youthful exuberance that has to be respected, but the Suns are going to need more than that in this Series and especially with the Lakers looking like they are very much focused on what they have to do. LeBron James has broken down the Suns Defensively and the Lakers have one of the stronger Defensive teams in the NBA especially when they look to be rounding into full health.
Last season the Lakers showed they make the adjustments needed to turn PlayOff Series around and losing the first game has not bothered them. They look capable of doing the same in the First Round here and the injury to Paul looks like being the key moment.
Phoenix have responded to losses all season and have been very good at the window when in that position, but the feeling is that this Series may be beyond them. I expect they will make this a little closer than Game 3, but I also think the Lakers can turn to James and Davis to make the big plays down the stretch which helps them clear another spread on their way to a 3-1 lead before the Series moves back to the desert.
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: There might have been just fewer than 5000 fans inside the Arena, but the Brooklyn Nets did not care when they made a 19-4 start to Game 3 as they looked to take complete command of the First Round Series.
Things change quickly in the NBA PlayOffs though and the Boston Celtics fought back behind a loud crowd and absolutely crushed the Brooklyn Nets with their shooting and their intensity getting to the boards. Holding Home Court is important for the Celtics and they are going to have a full crowd for the first time on Sunday when they look to tie the Series before the shift back to Brooklyn.
Jayson Tatum has struggled in the Series, but he did not have any issues in Game 3 as he landed a 50 burger on the Nets. The Boston star player had struggled in the first two games, but it is the second time in the post-season he has hit that number and both have resulted in Boston wins, although the pressure is keeping up those levels to hold off the Nets.
After two strong Defensive showings, the Nets struggled in all aspects in Game 3 and you have to imagine there will be a reaction from them as they try and avoid being dragged into a scrap. Kyrie Irving struggled in his return to Boston, but I do think the Big Three will be stronger in Game 4 after being given a jolt in the defeat a couple of nights ago and that is key for the Nets.
Brooklyn have to make adjustments to make sure they do not give Boston the same type of encouragement as in Game 3. That means a better intensity getting out to shooters and definitely more productivity on the boards having allowed the Celtics to earn plenty of second chance shots in their victory.
The Celtics have to be respected as a strong home underdog and with a full crowd behind them I expect the Boston players to come out with real intensity. Those crowds can make a big difference with so many having become used to playing without that vitriol coming down from the stands and that is certainly the case for road teams.
However, Boston are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven following a straight up win and Brooklyn are still the stronger team in this Series. I don't expect the Nets to be as loose with their desire as they were in Game 3 and that should see them get back to the kind of levels that saw them win the first two games with room to spare.
I expect the Nets to be much more active around the boards and that can see them swing this one back in their favour.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: They convinced everyone that the real Los Angeles Clippers would stand up in Game 3 of this First Round Series as one of the favourites for the NBA Championship found themselves in a historically difficult position. Dropping both home games in this First Round Series with the Dallas Mavericks has historically put teams on the brink of exiting the PlayOffs, but the Clippers were happy to put it on record that this Series is far from over.
The Clippers were punched squarely in the mouth very early in Game 3 and found themselves in a big hole, but the team showed why they have been considered as one of the favourites. Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George performed at a high level and the Clippers feeling that the Dallas role players could be cooled off ultimately prevailed.
Those players did cool off and Luka Doncic's 44 points were not enough to carry the Dallas Mavericks into what would have been an almost unassailable 3-0 lead. Luka Doncic has shown he is more than ready to star in this League, but he picked up an injury in Game 3 and he is going to be limited at best in Game 4 which is a major problem for the Dallas Mavericks.
As long as Luka Doncic is healthy there is a feeling that he can perform at a high enough level to help the Dallas Mavericks overcome the odds. However, a limited or absent Doncic puts a lot of pressure on the other players on the roster in Dallas and I simply do not believe they are good enough to compete with this Clippers team who showed what they can do when at their best in Game 3.
Dallas have covered in their last four games following a straight up loss, but the reports about Doncic are very concerning.
I do have to say the Clippers tend to be over-rated, but they covered here on the road in Game 3 and I think they level up the Series before returning to the City of Angels. They have improved to 7-2 against the spread in their last nine in Dallas and I do think the Clippers will continue to focus in on the Mavericks role players and limit their impact on this Series to try and turn the momentum back in their own favour completely.
Monday 31st May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards Pick: It has been a long time since the Philadelphia 76ers have swept through a Series in the NBA PlayOffs, but there needs to be significant changes to the way the first three games have gone to prevent them doing that this season. The 76ers have dominated the Washington Wizards in almost all facets of the game and that has led to back to back blow outs as they look to secure safe passage to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
They do have to wait and see who they could potentially face, but the 76ers will be inspired to follow the Milwaukee Bucks into the next Round. The Bucks completed their own sweep on Saturday, but the 76ers will still think there is time to get some rest before the next Series as long as they can stay focused.
You have to expect the Washington Wizards to have one last rally in them, but the pressure has built up on their star players. Bradley Beal is doing what he can, but Russell Westbrook is banged up and the Wizards don't have enough Offensive firepower to make up for what has been lacklustre Defensive performances.
The Defensive side of the court has let the Wizards down for much of the season, but it has really been evident in this Series against a balanced 76ers team. We all wondered how Washington could deal with the impact Joel Embiid would have on the Series, but they haven't had any answers and the Philadelphia star player does 'trust the process' which has the 76ers on the brink of another Semi Final appearance in the Eastern Conference.
This is the mere minimum of what Philadelphia expect of themselves and I think there is enough motivation for them to come out and make a statement on their way to the next Round. Giving Washington any hope will not be the mindset, and the 76ers will be looking to show the remaining teams in the East that they are the Number 1 Seed for a reason.
Teams coming off three straight defeats have struggled to be competitive in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and I think that may be the case for a Washington team that invested a lot to merely get into the post-season mix.
The 76ers have improved to 10-3-1 against the spread in their last fourteen as the road favourite and I expect they can put in one more dominant performance to cover this big number.
I do anticipate an early push from Washington behind their home crowd, but the 76ers will want to silence them through the opening half and then push through to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It has been a close and competitive Series so far, but the Utah Jazz have had the edge when it comes to the consistency in shooting and will look to put themselves in a commanding position by winning this Game 4 on the road.
That would mean the Number 1 Seed can wrap up the Series later this week and rest before the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks conclude a First Round PlayOff Series that will go at least six games.
Much will depend on whether the Grizzlies can find a way to challenge those shooters better than they have so far in the last couple of games, but I do think Memphis are likely to come out and compete for a full 48 minutes better than they have been. There is pressure in Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks to find the consistency Offensively to keep up with the Jazz, and the feeling is that they will ultimately come up a little short when all is said and done.
Desperation in a team cannot be underestimated, but the Jazz look like they can land the big shots to pull away and hold onto a win here. Another cover won't be easy to earn, but Utah can do that on their way to what looks like a decisive 3-1 lead.
MY PICKS: 22/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/05 Dallas Mavericks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/05 Brooklyn Nets - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
22/05 Portland Trail Blazers + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/05 Philadelphia 76ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
23/05 Phoenix Suns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/05 New York Knicks @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
24/05 Miami Heat + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/05 Portland Trail Blazers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
25/05 Brooklyn Nets - 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/05 Phoenix Suns + 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/05 Los Angeles Clippers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/05 Philadelphia 76ers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
26/05 New York Knicks - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
26/05 Utah Jazz - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/05 Miami Heat - 1 Point FIRST HALF @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/05 Phoenix Suns + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
27/05 Portland Trail Blazers - 4 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
28/05 New York Knicks + 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
28/05 Brooklyn Nets - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
28/05 Los Angeles Clippers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
29/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
29/05 Portland Trail Blazers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
29/05 Philadelphia 76ers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
29/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
30/05 New York Knicks + 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
30/05 Los Angeles Lakers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
30/05 Brooklyn Nets - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
30/05 Los Angeles Clippers - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
31/05 Philadelphia 76ers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
31/05 Utah Jazz - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 16-16, - 1.48 Units (32 Units Staked, - 4.63% Yield)
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