It was a frustrating Tuesday at the Rome Masters for my Tennis Picks and that is largely down to the fact that it felt like a pretty good day aside from the eventual results.
I have not had a very good season to this point and it is a far cry from the majority of the season since I started to do this, but I do think there is a positive run coming sooner rather than later.
You have to stay balanced and stay clear of thought, but I do hope we have a recovery day on Wednesday when there is a very, very busy day at the tournament after rain curtailed play on Tuesday. Essentially we have a full Second Round for both the ATP and WTA Tournaments to be completed over the course of what is going to be a long day and I do have a number of selections from the play to come.
I have written out some of the analysis as to why I am making the selections I am, but adding the remaining selections below.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: Defeats to Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud on the clay courts won't have dented too much of the confidence that Stefanos Tsitsipas usually brings to his tennis. Both of those players will be expecting to have strong showings at the French Open, but Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he deserves his place alongside them as one of the top names that could win the next Grand Slam to be played.
The relatively early defeat in Madrid will have hurt, but Tsitsipas will arrive in Rome believing he can have a strong run to match his showing in Monte Carlo where he took the title home. The numbers in 2021 have been really impressive on the red dirt and Stefanos Tsitsipas has long played his best tennis on this surface, while improving on other surfaces all the time.
One of the main criticisms of Stefanos Tsitsipas is his return game and not getting as much from that side as he perhaps should and needs if he wants to win the major titles that he will be targeting. However, the Greek player usually finds his best returning on the slower clay courts and there has been an improvement on that side of his game in 2021 with 32% of return games played ending in a break of serve.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is able to build scoreboard pressure with his strong serve and it is key for him to produce that against veteran Marin Cilic in this Second Round match. Marin Cilic came from behind to win his First Round match against Alexander Bublik, but the Croatian is not the player he once was and Cilic has been dropping down the World Rankings which means he is likely going to be entering the French Open Unseeded.
The last twelve months has seen Marin Cilic produce a 15-15 record, but some of his better performances have come on the clay courts even if the numbers are pretty average.
Marin Cilic does have a decent serve, but he is winning just 63% of points behind it on this surface in 2021 and he is holding in less than 80% of his service games. At his best Cilic was a very good return player, but his numbers have declined significantly on this side of his game over the last sixteen months and I think that is where Stefanos Tsitsipas should be able to take advantage and begin to exert pressure on the veteran across the net.
The early games could be important in this one and it will be important for Tsitsipas to prevent Marin Cilic from building a rhythm behind his serve. The returning shown by the current top 10 World Ranked player is encouraging enough to believe Stefanos Tsitsipas will move into a position to win and eventually cover a big spread.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: He has spent some time away from the Tour to rebuild some of the fitness and Dominic Thiem has made it clear that will be scheduling his appearances in tournaments with much more care and attention going forward. The return in Madrid last week was a solid one for Thiem who reached the Semi Final at the Masters event before coming up short against Alexander Zverev, but the Austrian will be feeling good about his chances of having another solid week here in Rome.
He won the US Open last year, but Dominic Thiem has been very close to winning the French Open in recent seasons and he has long been considered one of the top three clay courters on the Tour alongside Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Others might have pushed their way into consideration as potential Grand Slam Champions in Paris, but Dominic Thiem will believe there is a chance for him at the French Open as long as he can put some more solid matches under his belt beforehand.
Dominic Thiem will feel this is a big week for him in that regard and he has proven to be an effective returner on the clay courts. There will be an improvement in the return numbers produced in Madrid and that is largely down to the fact that the conditions at that clay court tournament are quicker than you would find in other European events played on the red dirt.
The opponents also contributed to the Thiem return numbers, but he should have more chances to get into the return games against Marton Fucsovics. The Hungarian has shown decent pedigree on the clay courts throughout his career, but Marton Fucsovics lost in the First Round at both the Monte Carlo Masters and Madrid Masters before beating a Lucky Loser in the First Round here in Rome.
It will be encouraging for Marton Fucsovics, but his serve is one that can be attacked and I think Dominic Thiem will be able to have success against him in this Second Round match. A talented player like Fucsovics is capable of playing well on the return on most surfaces, but I do think it is a tough challenge for him against this Thiem serve which has proved to be one of the big weapons in the Austrian's arsenal when playing on the clay.
Last week we saw strong serving from Thiem for the most part and he has also won all three previous professional meetings against Marton Fucsovics. All of those wins have come on the clay courts over a number of years, but the most recent came in Hamburg in July 2019 and it resulted in a relatively one-sided win for the higher Ranked player.
In those previous matches, Dominic Thiem has had a huge advantage when it comes to the return of serve compared with Marton Fucsovics and it has seen him pull clear for the victory. The feeling is that something similar will happen in the Second Round in Rome and I think Thiem can work his way to a win and a cover.
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Jannik Sinner: There is going to be much excitement in Rome on Wednesday as one of the more talented Italian players coming through the ranks takes on the 'King of Clay' Rafael Nadal in the Second Round. I don't think there will be much intimidation or feelings of awe for Jannik Sinner who played out a memorable match against Nadal at the French Open last Autumn and who has already opposed the likes of Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the red dirt this season.
Jannik Sinner has come up short in both of those matches though and he was beaten handily in Madrid last week by Alexei Popyrin, which would have been a big disappointment. However, I expect him to be inspired playing at home and last season Sinner had a very good run in Rome which included a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.
There is plenty to like about Jannik Sinner's tennis and I think the Italians will be very happy with some of their younger players coming through on the ATP Tour to take over from the likes of Fabio Fognini and Andreas Seppi who are veterans of the Tour. He looks to be at his best on the clay courts and the numbers have been decent in 2021, although Sinner will likely want to get a bit more out of his serve to back up the 30% mark of return games in which he has broken serve.
Over the last twelve months Sinner has held just shy of 80% of the service games played and backed that up with breaks in 33% of return games played on the red dirt. Those numbers are very impressive, but the two fairly one-sided losses to Tsitsipas and Djokovic this season have come in a similar manner as Jannik Sinner's serve has been hurt and his return has not quite reached the levels needed.
Those two players will be the favourites to win the French Open alongside Rafael Nadal who is the latest top 10 World Ranked player that Sinner will take on this season. The Spaniard has long been the top clay courter on the ATP Tour, but his numbers are significantly down on the marks produced in recent seasons, although that is not to say that Rafael Nadal is still not playing at a very good level.
Rafael Nadal will still be largely happy with his return game, but the Spaniard will be trying to find the right solutions to make the serve a more potent weapon. The former World Number 1 is still holding in 81% of service games played on the clay courts in 2021, but in recent years those numbers have been pretty consistent at 87%, 86%, 87% and 88% between 2020 and 2017.
It might not look a lot, but that is a significant knock on the Rafael Nadal serve and it is making matches that much more difficult for him to negotiate. It cost him in his defeat to Alexander Zverev last week in Madrid, but Nadal has been holding at 86% of service games played against opponents Ranked outside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
That could be key for him in this Second Round match as he looks to lay down a marker before the French Open begins.
It was a highly competitive first two sets when these two players met at the French Open, but Nadal had a significant edge on the returning side on that day. Now he has experienced what Jannik Sinner will throw at him, I think Rafael Nadal should be more comfortable in this match and he should be able to produce the tennis to earn his way through to another Third Round in Rome.
Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: There is so much to admire about the Denis Shapovalov game and he does have the look and feel of a player that could be challenging for the biggest prizes in the years to come. At 22 years old, however, there is room for improvement so Denis Shapovalov can take the next step in his development and the main task for the Canadian is getting more out of his return game.
The lack of experience on the clay courts would have hindered him early in his career, but Shapovalov has shown a liking for the surface over the last several months and is coming into this match off a very good win in the First Round. He is playing on consecutive days against an opponent who would have been rested, but that should not bother a young player like Shapovalov.
His return game has really been in good nick on the clay courts in 2020 and 2021 and over the last several months Denis Shapovalov has broken in 33% of return games played on the surface. That is considerably stronger than his numbers on the faster surfaces and I do think Shapovalov enjoys the extra time to really punch his groundstrokes through the court that he gets on the red dirt.
I do think Denis Shapovalov will want to get a bit more out of his own serve, but he should be pretty confident in getting his teeth into the Stefano Travaglia service games in this Second Round match. He won't want to underestimate the clay court specialist from Italy, but Travaglia had lost all four clay court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents before beating Benoit Paire in the First Round.
The win over Paire doesn't prove anything considering how the Frenchman has approached this season, and Stefano Travaglia is going to see his serve tested having won just 62% of points played behind the serve on the clay courts over the last year. However that number dips under 60% when only considering matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents and the Italian has held serve in 71% of games played on the surface.
It will put some pressure on Stefano Travaglia's return game, although the Italian is someone who can get his teeth into games when returning and try and extract errors from his opponent. While I have to respect that, I do think the numbers show Denis Shapovalov has a considerable edge on both sides of the court in this match and I expect him to work through and earn a win and a cover in this match.
Denis Shapovalov reached the Semi Final here in Rome last Autumn and he will be under pressure to put some solid Ranking points on the board here, but I like the confidence of the Canadian and I think he will at least move through to the Third Round here.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Veronika Kudermetova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 1 Game @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rome Masters Update: 3-7, - 9.14 Units (20 Units Staked, - 45.70% Yield)
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