Weekend Football Picks 2018 (November 24-26)

The international breaks are usually a real pain in the backside to deal with for fans as well as managers in the top European Leagues, but I will admit the introduction of the new UEFA Nations League was a real success in the first running of the competition.

The competition will come to a conclusion next June, but it did make the three international breaks in September, October and November more interesting than the usual rubbish the Qualifiers serve up. Those Qualifiers are now condensed into a nine month period beginning in March through to November 2019, and I am sure we will all be bored of some of the mismatches that are presented in those games.

That is where the Nations League made things more even and I thought it was a very positive start to what is going to be a feature on the calendar for the years ahead.


In saying all that, I know I am not the only one who is going to be glad to get the Premier League back as we get set to enter the grind of the festive period. This may not be a fun time for the players, but for the fans the football comes thick and fast through to the second week of January and it is a time for Fantasy Players to begin second guessing managers and the rotations they are set to use.

Making Picks from matches can become a little more haphazard at this time of the season with the short turnarounds between games, but everyone watching and playing has to adapt to the situations with vital points to play for.


With the weekend here, below you can see my Picks from the Premier League fixtures to be played from Saturday through to Monday and I also have my top Fantasy player, and Alternative, from those games.


Brighton v Leicester City Pick: Time can heal all wounds but you have to believe the Leicester City players are still not quite back to normal after the tragic events that saw owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha lose his life..

Claude Puel has been speaking to the press and making it clear the players have to try and focus on their jobs and making sure they honour the late owner as best they can. To be fair to the players they have actually played far better than could be expected in the 2 games since the helicopter accident that was witnessed by many of them and Leicester City are unfortunate not to have 2 wins from 2 played.

Last time out Leicester City did everything but score against Burnley as they dominated their visitors on an emotional day at the King Power Stadium. That came a week after winning at Cardiff City and I think Leicester City can edge out a Brighton team who have perhaps been a little lucky to have won back to back games at the Amex Stadium.

On pure chances being created Brighton were perhaps fortunate to beat West Ham United and Wolves without conceding a goal and they are going to be challenged by this Leicester City team.

The home form has to be respected for Brighton, but Leicester City had a solid win here last season and they are certainly good enough to win here again. If they continue to create the chances they have in their last 3 games it will be very difficult to beat Leicester City and I am not convinced this Brighton team are good enough at both ends of the field to do that.

Brighton have earned 10 points from a possible 15 at home this season, but Leicester City have shown they can win away games and I will back The Foxes on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: James Maddison- he is back from an injury and is a key player from set pieces while also a potential penalty taker.

Alternative: Ben Chilwell- potential assists from a defender can't be ignored and Leicester City have had back to back clean sheets too.


Everton v Cardiff City Pick: You just know Neil Warnock would have loved to have had another Premier League fixture between the Brighton win and the international break just to see if his side could build on the momentum that comes from a late winner.

Two weeks later the euphoria would have died down and Cardiff City players will know they are back into the hard work needed to compete at the Premier League level.

This weekend they travel to Everton who have been performing very well at home with numerous chances being created and the goals have not been too far away. The absence of Gylfi Sigurdsson could be a potential blow to Everton with the Icelandic player being a real key under Marco Silva, but Everton do have enough about them to put Cardiff City under some pressure.

Cardiff City simply have not defended as well as they would have liked at this level and that has seen them exposed to some heavy losses already. Those have come against the very best teams in the Division though and Warnock will be reminding his players that Everton are not up there with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City.

In saying that there is still a definite edge with the home team who have beaten teams like Fulham, Crystal Palace and Brighton at Goodison Park in the last few weeks. All of those clubs are of similar stature to Cardiff City and it has the feeling of being a tough afternoon for the visitors against an Everton team who have scored two or more goals in 3 straight home League games.

If they score two here I would imagine they would have too much for Cardiff City and I do think Everton are capable of doing that. Even without Sigurdsson, who is a doubt having missed the Iceland games during the two week international break, Everton have some quality players in the final third and I will back the home team to come out of the break and enter the festive period with a strong home win behind them.

Fantasy Star: Richarlison- plays in the Number 9 for Everton these days and scored for Brazil in a friendly last week.

Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- a two week break will be important for the Icelandic midfielder and he has been very strong in Marco Silva's system while also a threat from set pieces.


Fulham v Southampton Pick: The media are going to be loving the appointment made by Fulham now they get to hear from Claudio Ranieri every week, but the Italian is not coming into an easy situation. He will have had some time to work with the players in the squad, but many have been away with their international teams and there doesn't look to be a quick fix at Fulham.

At the moment the club are struggling at both ends of the field and Ranieri's first task will be to make sure they are defensively much sounder than they have been.

That does take time though and even if title winning Leicester City team needed around four months to get used to the defensive schemes Ranieri had put together. Fulham simply don't have that time after a poor start to the season and this game on Saturday is a huge one for their chances of avoiding the drop even though we are in November.

Failure to beat Southampton ahead of fixtures against Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United could see Fulham lose touch with the teams above them very quickly and there is pressure on them to perform.

The same pressure applies to Mark Hughes and his Southampton team who feel they were robbed of three vital points when drawing 1-1 with Watford two weeks ago. A controversial goal was disallowed on the day that would have seen Southampton go 2-0 ahead, but the performance was enough to give Hughes a little more time to try and get things turned around.

A lack of goals is a real concern for a team who could be without Danny Ings and Shane Long this weekend, but Southampton have actually played better than the results would suggest. They are creating enough chances to win games, but poor composure in the final third has really let them down.

I expect Southampton can create more opportunities when they visit Craven Cottage on Saturday, although my enthusiasm for an away win is reduced significantly by the potential impact a new manager can have for Fulham. This is still a team who look like they have the quality to be operating higher up the Premier League table and Ranieri could get an immediate reaction which would be a worry for Southampton fans and backers.

However I do think the chances being created by Southampton have been ignored by the poor finishing. If they had even taken half of the opportunities they have been creating they would have a few more goals than the 8 they have totalled so far this season and I do think Fulham will present them with chances in this one before Claudio Ranieri can really work on the defensive shape.

Backing Southampton on the Asian Handicap at least returns the stake in the event of a draw and I like them as the slight underdog at Craven Cottage where they beat Fulham in the FA Cup back in January.

Fantasy Star: Charlie Austin- will be leading the line for Southampton and has a decent finish on him. Can make headlines for a differing reason than two weeks ago.

Alternative: Aleksandr Mitrovic- scored for Serbia on international duty and will be Claudio Ranieri's focal point for the Fulham attack. Always a threat from set pieces.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: A difficult period of fixtures are now behind Manchester United and it is time for the team to start picking up some consistency and putting the wins together if Jose Mourinho is going to be proved right about where the club are going to stand ahead of the opening of the January transfer window.

A couple of weeks ago Mourinho insisted Manchester United can get into the top four of the Premier League, but there is a 7 point gap to trim in the weeks ahead. The fixture list certainly looks a kinder one for Manchester United in the weeks ahead with a number of games to be played against teams in the bottom half of the table, but they have to take advantage of that.

So far Manchester United have been far from convincing and injuries have not been helping the situation. You can't question the heart of the players or the determination to play for the manager having seen Manchester United come from behind to wins games against Newcastle United, Bournemouth and Juventus while also securing a draw with Chelsea in a game they trailed.

The fans will be hoping they can get on the front foot out of the international break with two big games at Old Trafford to come this week before the trip to Southampton.

First up is a Crystal Palace team who have lost 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions and who have been beaten in their last 4 away games. A defensive injury crisis has just reared up at the wrong time for Roy Hodgson although the majority of those players could be back in action next weekend if they cannot be involved at Old Trafford.

It will make it difficult to get a result on a ground where Crystal Palace have lost their last 5 visits and I do think Manchester United will prove too strong for The Eagles this weekend too.

Manchester United have been scoring plenty of goals in recent weeks and that should see them have success against what could be a makeshift backline for Crystal Palace. If Wilfried Zaha cannot make the trip to the North West it will even more difficult for Crystal Palace to offer a counter attacking threat and I think Manchester United can get this week off to a good, positive start with what could be the most comfortable home win of the season so far.

Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- his 'expected goals' stats suggest this run of strong form won't be sustained, but the Frenchman is well rested and is a potential penalty taker.

Alternative: Victor Lindelof- Manchester United's lack of clean sheets are well documented, but this is the start of a decent stretch of games for them and the Swede has looked more and more assured at the heart of the defence.


Watford v Liverpool Pick: At this stage of the season there really isn't a priority for teams in the Premier League and Champions League as they are trying to progress in both. With that in mind I do think the looming away tie at Paris Saint-Germain is going to be a potential distraction for the Liverpool players as they could potentially be left needing to beat Napoli by a wide margin to progress in the event of a loss in the French capital.

However Jurgen Klopp will know they can't take their eyes off the ball in the Premier League where Manchester City look like a team that are not going to be dropping too many points through the course of the campaign. With 2 points between Liverpool and the leaders, The Reds can't afford to drop points at Vicarage Road if they are going to genuinely compete for the title.

That may sound harsh considering Tottenham Hotspur have lost here already, but both Manchester United and Bournemouth won and Manchester City will be expected to do the same when they visit in a couple of weeks time. It means there are not excuses for Liverpool, but they have not found it easy in this part of Hertfordshire in recent seasons and Watford are playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous.

As much as Liverpool have improved defensively, they have only kept 2 clean sheets in 8 away games in all competitions this season. Both have come in the Premier League, but even in those games Liverpool have had to ride their luck at times and I do think Watford have enough in the final third to really cause some problems for their visitors.

While Liverpool have not been as threatening at the other end of the field as they seemingly were last season, this is still a team who create and score goals on their travels so it is hard to see Watford keeping them out.

Both teams look like they could score here although matching the 3-3 last season is going to be a tough task. I do think there will be chances at both ends though and backing both teams to score once looks a decent enough price considering how things have gone for both Watford and Liverpool at home/away respectively so far and in recent weeks.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- might not be hitting the heights of last season, but still scoring plenty of goals and scored both at home and away against Watford last season.

Alternative: Roberto Pereyra- if Watford are going to cause problems for Liverpool this is the player most likely to create or score for The Hornets.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: About the only thing that could be seen as a negative for Manchester City approaching the festive period is the number of injuries they have suffered with Kevin De Bruyne basically missing the majority of the campaign. Bernardo Silva's knock picked up on international duty is a blow, but this is a squad that is capable of picking up the slack for missing members and I don't foresee either potential absence from slowing down Pep Guardiola's men.

The comfortable win over Manchester United two weeks ago means Manchester City are clear at the top of the Premier League table but still being pushed by Liverpool and Chelsea. The next six weeks will be seen as a chance to really take control of the title race as Manchester City face both those teams before the FA Cup Third Round in early January.

Focus has been key for the players as they have not really overlooked any opponent they have faced and I expect that to be the case on Saturday.

On their day West Ham United can be a handful as Manchester United and Chelsea have found out at the London Stadium already this season, but this is a team that hasn't matched up well with Manchester City.

Since moving into the London Stadium West Ham United have lost 0-5, 0-4 and 1-4 against Manchester City and the only positive is that they have reduced the margin each time.

Manuel Pellegrini will have some insight of some of the players at his former club, and his new team should be motivated to perform for the manager, but it is a tall task for West Ham United. They look like a team who could be really susceptible to the pace Manchester City have in the forward areas and there is enough quality in the away team even without De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva to find cracks in a defence that has conceded three goals to Burnley and Huddersfield Town in their last couple of League games.

West Ham United have beaten Manchester United and drawn with Chelsea here, but Tottenham Hotspur won twice at the London Stadium in the Premier League and League Cup. While the home team will produce a big effort to try and knock Manchester City out of their stride or to catch them cold out of the international break, I think the mental demons of recent heavy home losses to this opponent won't be easy to shake.

Injuries are hurting the home team too and I don't think they will be able to contain a Manchester City team who could have Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, David Silva and Sergio Aguero all involved. I will back the defending Champions to keep their strong run going and I will back them to win by two or more goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: David Silva- with both Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva out, David Silva's hot form is going to be important to Manchester City. Didn't play here last season, but has scored in his previous three games against West Ham United including on two visits to the London Stadium.

Alternative: Leroy Sane- with Benjamin Mendy ruled out for three months, Leroy Sane's position in the starting eleven could have re-opened and he has a stellar record against 'weaker' Premier League opponents.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: The biggest game of the Premier League weekend comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur host rivals Chelsea with just one point separating these two teams and both chasing leaders Manchester City.

The playing surface at Wembley Stadium is far from in ideal condition, but it didn't play too badly when England hosted Croatia there last Sunday and I don't think the pitch is half as cut up as when the NFL hosted a game there a day before Tottenham Hotspur hosted Manchester City.

Neither team will be able to use a poor playing surface as an excuse and matches between Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have been very closely contested in recent years. Last season both teams were able to beat the other once, but surprisingly that happened in the away game for both Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.

Spurs have lost their last 4 games against Chelsea that have been played at Wembley Stadium including last season and they have not played as well at this ground this time around as they did in the 2017/18 campaign. Barcelona, Liverpool and Manchester City have all beaten Tottenham Hotspur here already over the last couple of months and Chelsea's away form has been strong.

However I do think Tottenham Hotspur's come from behind win over PSV Eindhoven will have given the players renewed confidence when playing at Wembley Stadium. They will need to take that into this game and pressure Chelsea, but the defensive injuries have just left the home team looking a little vulnerable at times.

Chelsea are certainly playing with enough belief to expose those issues and I think this will be a decent game of football on Saturday afternoon. The chances Chelsea have been creating makes them dangerous, but they have yet to truly convince defensively and Tottenham Hotspur look as healthy in the final third as they have at any time this season.

5 of the last 6 games between these two London rivals have ended with at least three goals shared out and I think that will be the outcome of this one too.

Fantasy Star: Dele Alli- it hasn't been a great season for Dele Alli thanks to injury, but he is back fit and healthy and has a strong record against Chelsea.

Alternative: Eden Hazard- boring selection but Eden Hazard remains a vital part of the Chelsea attack and could have chances in what is expected to be a game featuring goals.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: The first of the live offerings from the Premier League on Sunday comes from the Vitality Stadium where Bournemouth host Arsenal in a battle between two of the current top six.

It is a real testimony to the work being done by Eddie Howe that Bournemouth are as high as they are in a season where so many had tipped them for relegation. Back to back League defeats has just slowed down some of the momentum that had been built up, but Howe will have had two weeks to get his tactics right for this home League game.

In the last couple of years Bournemouth have proved to be a thorn in the Arsenal side with a draw and a win over them at the Vitality Stadium. Even in the drawn game Bournemouth were leading 3-0 before collapsing and they are certainly playing well enough going forward to challenge an Arsenal defence that has looked vulnerable throughout the season.

Wins can disguise the defensive frailties and that was certainly the case a month ago, but 4 draws in 5 games in all competitions has just underlined the point. Two weeks ago they needed a very late goal to earn a draw with Wolves at the Emirates Stadium, but Arsenal have shown they have plenty of goals in the side and that has seen them produce clinical performances in front of goal.

This weekend they could be without Alexandre Lacazette though and Arsenal may just be short of options in the final third. It is a concern until the January transfer window opens up and I think they look plenty short to win this game at a ground where Manchester United needed a very late goal to produce the victory.

With the problems at the back Bournemouth could certainly take advantage in what promises to be a decent game of football. Both teams will feel they are better going forward than defending and I think an attacking game could develop with at least four goals shared out between the teams.

Arsenal have played 5 away Premier League games this season and four or more goals have been shared out 4 times. There hasn't been as many goals in Bournemouth games at the Vitality Stadium, but the 6 League games have averaged three goals per game and that has included a goalless draw with Southampton.

An early goal could really get things going and backing four or more goals to be shared out at odds against is the selection.

Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- scored for England in an international friendly and should have some great chances against this Arsenal defence.

Alternative: Alexandre Lacazette- was given a chance to recover from injury over the last two weeks and was in good goal-scoring form for a team that will create chances at the Vitality Stadium.


Wolves v Huddersfield Town Pick: The second live televised game on Sunday afternoon in the Premier League looks to be one that Huddersfield Town have to be targeting if they have serious ambitions of wanting to avoid the drop.

After back to back games where they have produced a positive result, Huddersfield Town should come out of the international break with some momentum. They have also tended to be pretty tough away from home, Manchester City aside, but Huddersfield Town were disappointing in their 3-0 defeat at Watford.

However they have not lost back to back away games in the Premier League since the end of March and that has to give David Wagner some belief his team can earn a result here.

Wolves have been in a poor patch of form but they have continued to play some good football and you would say that only the home loss to Watford was a disappointing all around day for the team. Other defeats at Brighton and at home to Tottenham Hotspur saw Wolves play really well and they were very unfortunate to lose both of those games, while they could, and perhaps should, have won at Arsenal two weeks ago.

It can be difficult for newly promoted teams to get out of a spin once they hit one in the Premier League, but Nuno Espirito Santo has to believe Wolves will win more games than they lose if they can continue to perform like they have been. The injuries to the two wing backs is a blow and losing both would hurt, but Wolves have shown they have enough in the attacking third to create chances and give Huddersfield Town missing two of their defenders a tough time.

The poor home record against Huddersfield Town is a concern for Wolves who have lost 5 of the last 6 against them at Molineux including when they last met two seasons ago. However the exception was a 3-0 win for Wolves in the 2015/16 season so I don't expect a new look team to be overly concerned by the record against Huddersfield Town and I will back the home team to win by a comfortable margin in this one.

Fantasy Star: Matt Doherty- I can't move away from a defender who has a high chance for a clean sheet, but also offers an attacking threat that rivals Marcos Alonso's at Chelsea in recent seasons.

Alternative: Raul Jimenez- if you like strikers who want to assist rather than score, or so it feels, then the Mexican is your man and he does knit things together for Wolves in the final third.


Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: There is much to play for on Monday Night Football when Burnley face Newcastle United.

Both teams are looking for a vital three points to move clear of the relegation battle that is developing and that should mean there is a real intensity to this fixture.

It is hard to really know how this game is going to go- Newcastle United had some real momentum behind them going into the international break as they managed to ride their fortune to some positive results. They will need to be a little better defensively if they are going to avoid the drop, but the same can absolutely be said for Burnley who have been giving up far too many chances for teams this season.

However both attacks have not really flourished as the managers would have hoped and so chances may not be as frequent in this game as they have been in recent Burnley and Newcastle United fixtures.

The Magpies have been really tight away from home with a total of eight goals scored in their 5 away games in the Premier League. Newcastle United have a poor recent record at Turf Moor and they don't score a lot of goals which should give Burnley every chance of earning the win.

However Burnley have been far from consistent this season and they have already failed to beat the likes of Watford and Huddersfield Town here. It has been a real battle for them defensively and Burnley are missing some key players in that unit which can be exposed, even by a limited attacking outfit like Newcastle United.

Going forward Burnley should have some success too and I think the layers are perhaps underestimating the chance of seeing both teams score in this one. As poor as these two teams have been when it comes to the attacking side of things, they are facing two defences who have really been struggling and that includes a Newcastle United team who have 2 clean sheets in their last 3 away games.

Both of those games at Crystal Palace and Southampton saw the home team miss some absolute sitters and Burnley have scored in 3 of their 5 home games this season in the Premier League.

I think both of these teams should have chances in this one and the 1-1 final score is a real player. I will be looking for both teams to score here against defences who have given up big chances to opponents and that looks an intriguing price.

Fantasy Star: Joe Hart- urgh, this is a tough game to pick someone from because it really could be anyone and no one stands out. However Burnley have been struggling defensively and Joe Hart will have to be a key performer to secure a result here.

Alternative: Solomon Rondon- two quality goals two weeks ago will have given Rondon confidence and Burnley have been vulnerable at the back while missing key centre halves.

MY PICKS: Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

November Update: 14-22, - 16.86 Units (72 Units Staked, - 23.42% Yield)