At this stage the NBA season is overshadowed by the College Football and NFL regular seasons which are well on their way to being concluded.
The television numbers are decent enough for the NBA, but for most fans it is accepted that things only really become important once Super Bowl weekend is concluded in February.
At this moment you can dig yourself into a hole, but most teams are focused on building chemistry and just moulding their rosters for the Play Off push that really gets going in February. Of course you don't want to be a number of games below 0.500 when that month rolls around, but the regular season is a long one and none of the contenders want to peak in November.
The NBA Picks will be a little erratic at this time too because it is tough to find good spots, but October proved to be a decent month for the limited picks made.
The season is an incredibly long one though so a positive start is nothing more than a positive start and something to build upon. Like I have the last couple of years, I will break up the monthly spread for ease of reading and this one covers the first full week in November.
After the Premier League game to be played on Monday, this will be the Featured Post through to Thursday and I will then be switching it in and out as Picks are made.
Monday 5th November
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers Pick: Out of the two Conferences the Western Conference is the one where you would think teams don't really want to be chasing Play Off spots later in the season. There are a number of teams who look like they will be able to build real momentum once they get things cleared up in their minds and I would imagine ten teams are full of belief they can make the top eight and the post-season.
Two of those play on Monday when the Los Angeles Clippers host the Minnesota Timberwolves although there are question marks about both teams.
The Clippers are a long way away from the days of the Big Three and will be looking to entice big names in Free Agency next year. They still have a group of veterans that will be looking to do anything but tank for the season and Lou Williams continues to show the form that has seen him as a leading Sixth Man of the Year for a number of years now.
It is still a group that will be challenged in the tough Western Conference and the Clippers will be returning home having dropped two of three games on a road trip. They did snap the run of losses by beating the Orlando Magic last time out and the Clippers have shown some Offensive power which is going to be tough for the Minnesota Timberwolves to contain.
Things could be that much tougher on Monday with Jimmy Butler, Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague all doubts to suit up. Rose dropped 50 points in a win over the Utah Jazz last week to turn back the clock, but the Timberwolves have suffered back to back blow outs at the Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers since which has knocked the confidence.
Butler's continued demands to leave Minnesota is not helping their cause and a team who made the Play Offs last April for the first time in fourteen years look to have taken a step back. The Timberwolves have been struggling Offensively and look like they can't make enough stops Defensively which means they match up poorly with this Clippers team in the form they are in.
Los Angeles should also have a distinct advantage on the glass and the stronger bench play should give the home team a chance to snap their poor recent record against Minnesota. The Timberwolves won all four games against the Clippers last season and they have won six in a row while going 5-1 against the spread in those games.
However the Clippers are 4-0 against the spread as the favourite this season and they look much healthier than Minnesota for this game. The visitors are playing the second of a back to back spot and Minnesota are only 1-4 against the spread in their last five in that situation while they are 8-22 against the spread in their last thirty road games.
The Clippers should be well rested and they can show enough on both sides of the court to get the better of Minnesota so I will lay the points with the home team.
Tuesday 6th November
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Two teams who have made promising starts to the 2018/19 NBA season will play on Tuesday and both the Milwaukee Bucks and Portland Trail Blazers have been in good form.
The confidence that comes from that start can't be underestimated and the layers are finding it very difficult to separate the Bucks and the Trail Blazers.
Much of the success has come down to strong performances on the Defensive side of the court and both the Bucks and Trail Blazers will look to continue their dominance on that side of the court. The two teams are holding teams to under 40% shooting at home/away respectively and so it is going to be a challenge for the big name players to build some momentum in this one.
There are other similarities between these teams with both showing strength on the glass and having similar successes from the three point line. When teams are matched up as closely as these two are then it could come down to the home advantage Portland have in this game, while turnovers are going to be very important with the team winning that battle likely going to come out on top.
The Bucks are actually 0-2 against the spread in their two road games against a team with a winning record this season and their record has been built on the majority of their games taking place at home. The spot could be a difficult one too with the Bucks getting set to take on NBA Champions Golden State Warriors next up on deck and they may well feel that is the kind of statement making game that sees them distracted in this game.
Milwaukee do have a strong 6-1 record against the spread in their last seven visits to Portland, but they are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games overall. The Trail Blazers are 21-7 against the spread in their last twenty-eight home games and they could take advantage if the Bucks are not completely focused with Golden State on deck.
Wednesday 7th November
There are quite a few games scheduled in the NBA on Wednesday but I can't say anything appealed enough to be selected.
I had leans towards Denver and Toronto and came closest to pulling the trigger on those two teams, but they are playing a couple of teams who can be competitive at home.
After a couple of winners this week I will move past Wednesday and keep the powder dry.
Thursday 8th November
It would have been a nothing kind of day on Wednesday with the two potential Picks I highlighted going 1-1 against the spread.
On Thursday there are only half the games of Wednesday being scheduled but I like three selections which you can read below.
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Over the last couple of seasons the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets have been the biggest threats to the Golden State Warriors dominance of the Western Conference. Both have made much poorer starts to the 2018/19 season than expected although there are real signs the Thunder and Rockets have found a winning formula as they head into this game against one another.
Houston look the healthier team with both James Harden and Chris Paul back and playing, but the Thunder are expected to miss Russell Westbrook who was resting his ankle in the last game. The Thunder still beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road but this is a step up without Westbrook, although his status remains questionable and I for one would not be surprised if he is announced as a starter.
With or without Westbrook it will be a real challenge for Oklahoma City to extend their winning run to seven games in a row- if he plays he can't be at 100% and if he doesn't then the Thunder are missing a key Offensive player against a Houston team who can put up big points when feeling their game.
It hasn't happened during the three game winning run for the Rockets with any consistency, but the Defensive effort being produced has been encouraging as the team begins to fit in Carmelo Anthony into the rotation. Anthony would love to have a big game here after his one season stay with Oklahoma City when his numbers took a sharp decline, but he will be coming off the bench despite telling the Thunder he would not do the same for them.
Oklahoma City have been playing well which makes them a dangerous home underdog, but they have not exactly beaten a really strong list of teams during their winning run. This is a much bigger challenge for them against an improving Rockets team who have had plenty of success against them in recent games.
The Rockets are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine visits to Oklahoma City and they are 13-5 against the spread in the last eighteen overall in this series. With the team rounding into decent form, I will look for the Rockets to keep those trends going here with a fourth consecutive road win to keep moving up the NBA standings.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Two days ago I selected the Portland Trail Blazers to beat the Milwaukee Bucks as the home underdog and they won outright. They have continued to be a very good home team following on from last season and I do think the Trail Blazers can put another win on the board when they host the Los Angeles Clippers.
There wasn't a deep expectation with the Clippers going into the season, but they have been better than advertised so far. They have some quality veterans like Tobias Harris and Danilo Galinari leading the starters while Lou Williams continues to display the form off the bench that took him to Sixth Man of the Year honours.
If the Trail Blazers are even contemplating the upcoming game with the Boston Celtics they will be in for a rude awakening here, but that game is set for Sunday so I do think the focus will be where it should be.
I do like the way the Los Angeles Clippers have been playing and they did return me a winner earlier this week, but this is a team who feel like they are much better at home than on the road. They have not been as strong Defensively on the road as they have at the Staples Center and the Clippers are only 2-3 on the road in the 2018/19 season which seems to back that up.
While I do think the Defensive issues with the Clippers will see the Portland Trail Blazers continue to produce points, it is the Portland Defensive performances at home which have really stood out. They are holding teams to a tick over 40% from the field at Moda Center and the Trail Blazers have the size around the glass to prevent teams from picking up second chance points.
Los Angeles will challenge them on the boards and they have a decent three point shooting team that has to be respected. However it will be difficult to put that together for 48 minutes in an Arena where Portland have tended to blow out their opponents when they have won here.
I think it is also telling that the Clippers have yet to beat a team with a winning record in the 2018/19 season and they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five against the Trail Blazers.
Portland have continued to be a team who cashes for their backers at home and they are playing a Clippers team who have not covered in their last four road games against a team with a winning record at home. Add in Portland's strong trends at home and I like the Trail Blazers to win and cover on Thursday.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors Pick: One of the reasons I opposed the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this week was because I felt they could be looking ahead to their trip to the Oracle Arena to take on the defending Champions Golden State Warriors.
It must have been part of the reason why the Bucks did go down to a defeat to the Portland Trail Blazers and they do have something to prove here. As strong as the start has been for the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2018/19 season, this is a team who have lost road games at the Boston Celtics and Portland Trail Blazers and I do wonder if there is a ceiling for this team.
That's not easy to write when you think the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo in their line up and the 'Greek Freak' has to be respected as one of the best players in the NBA. However I am remain unconvinced the Bucks have enough support around him to be more than a Number 4 or Number 5 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
It may be a little harsh to say that considering they are 8-2 to open the season, but a couple of wins over leading Eastern Conference contenders at home are the ones that stand out. Now they have to play the Golden State Warriors who look to be in mid-season form already and who have been dominating opponents which means a big step up for the Bucks.
Draymond Green will be missing for Golden State which is a blow as they have yet to really get the Defensive side of their game cranked up. It will mean Milwaukee can perhaps find better looks than they would if Green was on the court, but Golden State have the quality to make up for his absence with the hot shooting Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson can put together.
Those three have helped the Warriors score at least 116 points in their last eight games and I expect Golden State to challenge the Milwaukee three point Defense which has seen them give up that shot at almost 38% on the road. This Warriors team is significantly more dangerous and consistent from that range than most though and I would expect the Offensive unit to cover for any Defensive deficiencies that may be exploited by Milwaukee.
The Bucks have a very strong 8-1 record against the spread in their last nine visits to Golden State, but the Warriors are playing with revenge having been beaten outright the last time they hosted Milwaukee in March.
Golden State have covered in their last five games at home, while Milwaukee have dropped to 1-8 against the spread in their last nine on the road. The Bucks are also 10-21 against the spread in their last thirty-one games against a team with a winning record, which adds to my feeling that they may be a touch overrated at the moment, and I will look for the Warriors to produce another big home win as I back the defending Champs for the first time in the 2018/19 season.
Friday 9th November
It was not a very good Thursday with the NBA Picks going 1-2.
Steph Curry's injury in the Third Quarter knocked the Golden State Warriors and they could not recover, but the Houston pick was a poor one from the outset as they didn't get anything going against the Thunder.
On Friday there are a number of NBA games scheduled and I have picks from two of them.
Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Both the Charlotte Hornets and the Philadelphia 76ers have winning records going into this game, but it can't be ignored that the Hornets have built their record against some of the weaker teams in the NBA.
They won't be facing one of those on Friday but the Hornets came very close to upsetting the 76ers when they visited this Arena last month. That should give Charlotte some confidence to take into this game and it may not be a great spot for the 76ers who return home for one game before heading back on the road.
Philadelphia have really struggled on the road, but they felt more relaxed last time out as they finally snapped their wait for a win outside of this Arena. They can now make it back to back wins before heading back on the road as Philadelphia put their 100% record on the line at home.
This is also the start of a road trip for the Hornets who are 2-3 on the road this season, but whose numbers are down both Offensively and Defensively when playing away from home. It will be a test for the Hornets who are continued to be led by Kemba Walker and this is the player who will be the biggest threat for the 76ers on Friday.
My expectation is that Philadelphia will be able to have enough of an edge on the glass to really find a way to pull away from the Hornets this time after the close game last month. The three point shooting will be key for the 76ers but they looked more comfortable last time out and they are a team who have been much better at home than on the road.
The 76ers are 4-2 against the spread when favoured by 5 or more points so far in the 2018/19 season. Philadelphia have also improved their trends to 24-9 against the spread at home and 20-6 against the spread when facing a team with a losing record on the road. The Hornets still have something to prove as they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight when facing a team with a winning record at home and they are 1-6 against the spread in the last seven of this series, albeit covering last time these teams played.
I do think Charlotte can cause problems with their Offensive rhythm giving them confidence, but Philadelphia should be focused having almost lost to this team once this season. That focus should see them pull away in the Fourth Quarter and cover this number.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Pick: A tough home loss for the Indiana Pacers has frustrated the players who believe they are better than what they showed against the Houston Rockets. They have to remain focused when they head to the Miami Heat on Friday even though revenge could be on their minds with a visit to the Rockets next up on deck.
Games against Conference rivals are going to be much more important for the Indiana Pacers though and that should mean all of the attention is on this game against the Miami Heat. The Heat may not be one of the favourites in the Eastern Conference, but they do have a roster that should be challenging for a Play Off spot in the Eastern Conference.
A win over the San Antonio Spurs underlined some of the depth the Heat feel they have on the roster as they managed that win without Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade. The latter is expected to miss out again as he is with his family following the birth of a child, but Dragic's status is much more up in the air.
There are some similarities with these teams who believe their Defensive strength makes things much easier for their Offensive talent to shine through. Both teams will want to impose themselves on the other, but Indiana may just have a slight edge on both ends of the court which makes them the surprising underdog in my opinion.
Hitting their buckets is going to be so important for Indiana because they can't really expect to compete effectively with the Miami Heat on the boards. In the last game against Houston they did miss some huge shots down the stretch which ultimately cost them the chance to win that and the focus has been on improving in those critical moments.
Miami are still looking for some consistency but they have won two in a row which should give the players some real belief to take into this game. The Heat have tended to play up to the level of opposition and they have a strong 21-10-3 record against the spread in their last thirty-four games against a team with a winning record.
However I like Indiana who I feel match up pretty well with Miami and the road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series. In fact the underdog is also 4-1 against the spread between Indiana and Miami, while the Pacers have been very good at bouncing back from losses with a 40-19 record against the spread in that situation.
The Pacers are also 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven road games and I will take the small advantage in favour of the road team here.
MY PICKS: 05/11 Los Angeles Clippers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/11 Portland Trail Blazers + 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/11 Houston Rockets - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
08/11 Portland Trail Blazers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/11 Golden State Warriors - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
09/11 Philadelphia 76ers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
09/11 Indiana Pacers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
November 5-11: 3-2, + 0.77 Units (5 Units Staked, + 15.40% Yield)
October Final: 3-1-1, + 1.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 34.60% Yield)
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