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Saturday 17 November 2018

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2018 (November 17th)

The final four players competing in the ATP World Tour Finals were confirmed by Friday afternoon when Alexander Zverev was able to get the better of John Isner in straight sets.

His appearance in the Semi Final is not a big surprise and I don't think many will be shocked to see both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic also playing in the final weekend of the 2018 Singles Tour.

Kevin Anderson has underlined the progress he has made on the Tour by rounding out the four and this is the chance to produce one more big effort before a short break ahead of preparation for the 2019 season which actually begins at the end of this calendar year.

Next weekend will officially be the end of the 2018 tennis season when the Davis Cup is played between France and Croatia. It means Marin Cilic's season is not over despite the three matches played in London this past week and he will be leading the favourites into battle, although playing away from home can be tough.

I don't anticipate the move onto the indoor clay to be a major problem for Cilic, especially not with a week to go before the first matches are played, but before that we need to put a period on the ATP World Tour Finals.

The dream Final is not far away, but I think Zverev and Anderson will feel they have something to say. First up is the match between Zverev and Federer in the afternoon session before Djokovic returns to the court against the player he beat in the Wimbledon Final.


Roger Federer - 2.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Last season these two players met in the ATP World Tour Finals and it was a very close three set match which eventually saw Roger Federer pull away in the final set to edge out Alexander Zverev.

One year on and Federer is again the favourite to beat Zverev but the two players now play for a spot in the Final rather than meeting in the Group Stage as they did in 2017.

There has been enough to like about the way the two players have performed this week to believe this is going to be a very good Semi Final and I don't think I can really separate the two players. Roger Federer has played at a more consistent level through his three matches, but he has not had to face Novak Djokovic like Alexander Zverev did and that match has skewed the German's numbers for the week.

In their two previous matches against each other on the hard courts the numbers have been very similar and there really hasn't been much between them. Alexander Zverev won the first of those in the Canadian Masters Final in August 2017 before Roger Federer got revenge at the O2 Arena twelve months ago.

I think Federer can do that again when they play this weekend- Zverev has been talking about the difficulties of the schedule and whether players have enough time to recover physically and mentally through the course of a season. He has not shown any sign of tiredness so far this week, but it is a worry that it could be something at the back of his mind.

Federer also has the better returning numbers so far this week and I think that can make a difference in a match that is expected to be a competitive one. So far he has broken at 30% while Zverev is under 10% for the week and Zverev is also down at 83% when it comes to holding compared with Federer's 88%.

The defeat to Djokovic and the manner of it is a concern for Zverev backers and I also think Federer has shown signs of improving in each match he has played. There is the potential this needs three sets to separate the players but that didn't stop Federer covering this number of games in a win over Zverev twelve months ago and I will back the former World Number 1 to win and cover here.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Kevin Anderson: It has been a dominant week so far for Novak Djokovic but make no mistake about it that he won't be happy unless he wins the title at the O2 Arena and makes a statement to his rivals ahead of the 2019 season.

He has yet to be really tested and his wins so far have been very comfortable with the serve yet to be broken and the return game putting opponents under intense pressure.

Both of those facets of his game will be tested by Kevin Anderson in this Semi Final, which may be a surprise to read. The South African is not known for his return game so you would believe Djokovic's serving will be too much for him, but Anderson is someone who is willing to take a swing at the return and he can grow in confidence if his own serve is working to the best of its ability.

The Anderson serve was key to his successes earlier this week, but he was struggling at times against Roger Federer. Some of that may have been down to the fact that Anderson had already moved through to the Semi Final, but he would have wanted to win the Group and avoid Novak Djokovic before the Final.

Instead I think both Dominic Thiem and Kei Nishikori underachieved against Anderson, but he can't expect Djokovic to do the same. Roger Federer broke Anderson four times in their match two days ago, and Djokovic has some strong return numbers against Anderson in their previous matches on the hard courts including a win over him at the Shanghai Masters.

Much depends on how big Anderson is serving- he can be very tough when finding confidence, but I would expect Djokovic to get plenty of balls back in play and wear down his opponent mentally and physically. Novak Djokovic was not overly taxed in his win over Marin Cilic on Friday evening so I expect him to be fresh and ready to go and I think he will break down the Anderson game and match the margin of victory that Federer had over Anderson on Thursday..

All three Novak Djokovic wins this week has seen him win by margins of five or more games and I think he can continue that in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals: 7-6, + 4.30 Units (25 Units Staked, + 17.20% Yield)

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