The ATP World Tour Finals move onto Day 3 at the O2 Arena and the first of the potentially critical second round robin of matches will be played in two sessions.
This is already the stage of the week where the two losing players from Sunday's opening matches will know another defeat will likely be the end of their 2018 season. On the other hand any player who reaches two wins from two matches played has to believe they are on the right path to make it through to the Semi Final to be played on Saturday.
Surprisingly one of those players on the brink of exiting the tournament is Roger Federer who was upset by Kei Nishikori on Sunday. He will be in action in the late match with Dominic Thiem after both were beaten in straight sets which makes another loss that much more difficult to recover from.
First up will be the match between Kei Nishikori and Kevin Anderson who play each other for the third time in a little under a month and the winner likely will have made a huge step towards Qualifying for the Semi Final. A straight sets win will probably be enough for whoever wins this opening match.
After a poor Sunday I had a much better Monday with two winners to get this week moving back towards a positive position. There is still some way to go before the direction of this week is decided but hopefully Day 3 can get the week into the black for the first time this week.
Kevin Anderson v Kei Nishikori: I went back to my selection at the Paris Masters when I backed Kevin Anderson as the underdog to beat Kei Nishikori, but was on the wrong side of things that day.
At the time I mentioned there were potential fatigue issues for Kevin Anderson, and that may have been a factor in his defeat as he struggled to cope with the Kei Nishikori serve.
Prior to that Anderson had beaten Nishikori twice on the indoor hard courts in 2018 and his service numbers have remained consistent in all three matches against the Japanese player. The difference in Paris was the steep drop off when it came to the return of serve, but the courts at the O2 Arena should give the South African every chance to find some very aggressive returns against what is an attackable serve owned by Nishikori.
That could be the key area in this match with Nishikori able to avoid the poor service games that can blight his game in the win over Anderson in Paris. Nishikori is also coming off a huge win when beating Roger Federer in the first Group game on Sunday so there is a chance he is in for a let down here and I think Anderson can be backed as the underdog.
There has been a drift on the Anderson price which can be a concern, but I think he can serve big enough to edge out Nishikori and move to the brink of a place in the Semi Final.
Dominic Thiem + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: At this point in his career you would say that Dominic Thiem is at his most dangerous on a clay court and the conditions at the O2 Arena may not be exactly ideal for him. You are going to have to hit through the court with some conviction in this one and Thiem has to bounce back from a disappointing performance on Sunday.
He did look better in the second set of his loss to the Kevin Anderson, but Dominic Thiem will have to be much better if he is going to challenge Roger Federer.
It should be noted that Federer was a little out of sorts and very irritable in his own loss on Sunday when he was beaten in straight sets by Kei Nishikori. Any hopes of winning a 100th career title rests on winning this match else Federer will be ready for an early exit from the World Tour Finals, but he has not been completely himself since the end of the US Open.
Federer is just a top player who can grind out results when not at his best and the title win in Basel underlined that point. However his service numbers have slipped considerably on the hard courts over the last two months compared with how Federer was playing earlier in 2018.
The return is still effective as it was, but the hold percentage for the season is up 90% for 2018 on the hard courts and Federer is winning 70% of points behind serve but both numbers have slipped back over the last two months to 84% and 66%. That can make all the difference in a sport where one or two points can swing a match from a win to a loss and Thiem has to be encouraged.
The Austrian has not been in great form heading into the ATP World Tour Finals which reduces some of the enthusiasm in backing him, but Thiem has found his best in the last two matches against Federer. Those were back in 2016 and Thiem beat Federer on clay and grass in those matches and I think he can keep this one close despite the poor loss on Sunday.
None of the matches have gone to a third set so far, but Thiem can at least push this the distance and get within this number.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Season 2018: + 58.18 Units (1741 Units Staked, + 3.34% Yield)
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