Midweek Football Picks 2018 (November 6-8)

The international break is fast approaching in November, but there is time for one more round of Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches. Match Day 4 of both competitions is a time when some teams will begin to earn their places in the Knock Out Rounds while others are on the way out of European competition.

This is already a pressurised situation for teams who may need all the points they can earn to challenge for Knock Out spots and some of the English representatives have been left in difficult spots after the results of Match Day 3.

Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are in comfortable positions, but Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some work to do if they are going to progress from the Group Stage.

Out of those three teams Tottenham Hotspur look in the most precarious position, but things can quickly change with two Champions League rounds to be played in November and they can get back on track this week.


Crevena Zvezda v Liverpool Pick: We have reached the stage of the Champions League Group Stage where teams can be in a position to move through to the Last 16 of the competition while others begin to realise their European adventure is almost at a close.

That is not entirely the case for this Group which sees two points separate Liverpool at the top of the section and Paris Saint-Germain in 3rd place with Napoli in between. All three teams will feel they are good enough to have an impact in the Champions League and that makes their remaining games against Crvena Zvezda as 'must win' fixtures.

Napoli have already dropped points here, but Liverpool will head to the Serbian capital as a big favourite to beat Crvena Zvezda who have found the step up to the Champions League a gap too far to bridge. Holding Napoli will give Crvena Zvezda some confidence, but the heavy losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool two weeks ago will have dented some of that and the home team will need all the passion coming from the stands to inspire them to a famous result.

In reality Crvena Zvezda were perhaps a little fortunate to even earn the goalless draw with Napoli and it will be very difficult to contain this Liverpool team. Goals have not exactly been flowing for Liverpool away from home, but they have been on a tough run and this Crvena Zvezda team are not up to the level of Chelsea, Napoli or Arsenal.

Last season Arsenal did earn a tough win here and playing in Belgrade is never easy, but Liverpool should be starting a strong team knowing the Champions League Group is still very much in the balance. With the defensive shape Liverpool have shown this season I think they can win this game and contain the Crvena Zvezda attack which will mainly be a threat from set pieces.

I expect Crvena Zvezda to cause some problems with the support they are going to have behind them, but that may not be enough to upset Liverpool. A tough away win looks to be on the cards which makes the Asian Handicap unappealing, but backing Liverpool to win to nil is a decent looking price.

Crvena Zvezda have failed to score in their last couple of home European games and in 4 of their last 8 here. Liverpool can become the latest to keep a clean sheet here as they put up three points to continue to lead this Group.


Inter Milan v Barcelona Pick: The Group has developed in such a way that Barcelona can win on Tuesday and that would not only be enough to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League but allow them to do that as Group Winners.

The theory is that it means an 'easier' Second Round tie in the Champions League and that has to be the focus for Barcelona so they can put full focus on the Spanish Primera Division in the weeks ahead.

Lionel Messi's absence has not slowed down Barcelona's attacking threat as shown in their 2-0 win over Inter Milan two weeks ago and in their 2-3 win at Rayo Vallecano in the League this past weekend. The goals conceded are more of a concern for Barcelona fans and this is a team who have looked more vulnerable away from home.

Even in the home win over Inter there were enough chances for the Italian team to be confident of their chances of perhaps producing an upset.

Inter Milan create plenty of chances at home and they don't have a lot to lose by giving this game a real go considering both Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven have a point each in the Group. A win for Inter Milan would put them right on the edge of making it through to the Last 16 and so there has to be a real effort at trying to pick up those points here.

Barcelona have not been the best traveller in recent Champions League years and they have not enjoyed recent visits to Italy. In the last couple of seasons Barcelona have lost Knock Out ties by the same 3-0 scoreline at Juventus and Roma.

This time Barcelona look like they have enough of an attacking threat to challenge Inter Milan and could also have Lionel Messi returning from injury. Inter Milan will feel they can also test a vulnerable Barcelona defence and I think these teams are going to combine for a decent game of football that ends with at least three goals shared out.


Napoli v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: A Group containing Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli looked like one that could see all three teams push each other all the way to Match Day 6 before determining those who will make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

A couple of surprising results involving Napoli have just changed the whole feel of the Group- this is a team who could not win at Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1, but Napoli have since beaten Liverpool at home and then draw in the French Capital against PSG.

The last result means a home win for Napoli on Tuesday will put them in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 16. With a home game to come against the Serbian Champions later this month, Napoli will know two home wins are going to be good enough to see them through to the Last 16.

Napoli are a point clear of Paris Saint-Germain having been unbeaten in the Group and a 4 point lead with two games to come would be tough to blow. However they have to feel that Paris Saint-Germain are going to be much better than they were two weeks ago and this becomes a dangerous game that is hard to pick a winner from.

Home advantage is enough of an edge to make Napoli appealing as the underdog, but the Italian side are one that will give up chances to opponents who are willing to take the game to them. The French Champions will do that, but Napoli showed there are some vulnerabilities in the Paris Saint-Germain defence too and I can see another game which features goals developing.

The layers feel the same and they do think there will be at least three goals shared out at odds on. I expect that total to be hit, but I am going to back at least four goals to be shared out as there was when these teams met in Paris two weeks ago.

Napoli are a team who will look to attack with some talented players in the final third while Paris Saint-Germain games continue to produce fireworks and I will look for that to occur on Tuesday.


Porto v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There has been a much improved performance coming from Lokomotiv Moscow which has to be respected, but they look like they have dug too big a hole to climb out of in the Champions League.

The Russian Premier League has to be the focus for Lokomotiv Moscow and despite beginning to put the wins together they have still been struggling in the Champions League. Losses to Galatasaray, Schalke and Porto have been difficult to swallow and the fact that two of those have come at home means Lokomotiv Moscow are unlikely to progress out of this Group.

Things do look much better for Porto who have won back to back Champions League games to top the Group. Another win on Tuesday will put Porto on the brink of making it through to the Last 16 and they are a team who have been strong enough at home in Europe to believe they can win this fixture.

Lokomotiv Moscow have lost back to back away games in Europe by the same 3-0 scoreline at Atletico Madrid and Galatasaray. They are in the difficult position of having to attack against a Porto team who will thrive on the counter attack and I do think it is going to be very difficult for the Russian Champions to earn a result here.

They have conceded too many goals in the Champions League and Porto can match the margin of victory secured in the Russian capital. Porto did have a narrow win over Galatasaray at home in the Group, but they should find more spaces to exploit against a Lokomotiv Moscow who have to come forward and I will back the Portuguese leaders to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.


Tottenham Hotspur v PSV Eindhoven Pick: If Champions League games were played for 85 minutes rather than 90 minutes Tottenham Hotspur would have had two wins under their belt in this Group and be in a strong position to make it through to the Last 16. However that is not the case and Tottenham Hotspur blew a 0-1 lead at Inter Milan to concede twice, while a 1-2 lead at PSV Eindhoven ended in a 2-2 draw.

So instead of being in a strong position, Tottenham Hotspur find themselves 5 points behind Inter Milan in 2nd place in this Group and now have two must win home Champions League games to be played this month. Win both and Tottenham Hotspur will have a chance to make it through to the Last 16 when visiting an already Qualified Barcelona on Match Day 6, but anything less and this will be seen as a really disappointing campaign in the Champions League.

You have to wonder about the state of the playing surface at Wembley Stadium with just eight days since it was used on back to back days. That is going to make it difficult for two teams who do like to pass the ball and play attacking football, but Tottenham Hotspur have run out of excuses having blown games already in the Champions League.

They have to put PSV Eindhoven under pressure from the off and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are capable of doing that. The Premier League club looked much better than PSV Eindhoven for long periods of the game on Match Day 3 and it was only two errors that allowed the Dutch Champions to secure a point.

PSV Eindhoven have to be respected for the way they continue to dominate domestically, but the Dutch League has slipped off the standards it once had. In the Champions League PSV Eindhoven have looked second best in all 3 Group games played and this is a team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away European ties.

I expect Tottenham Hotspur to add to that even through the injury crisis they are suffering in centre midfield. I am a little concerned with the defensive performances of late which has seen Tottenham Hotspur offer chances to opponents, while they have lost 3 of their last 4 at Wembley Stadium.

However those defeats have come against some of the best teams in Europe and I will back Tottenham Hotspur to reinvigorate their Champions League challenge by winning this game by a couple of goals on the day.


CSKA Moscow v Roma Pick: When you factor in Roma's run of 1 win from their last 17 away games in the Champions League it is hard to imagine that they would be as short a price as they are to win in Moscow on Match Day 4.

Roma did crush CSKA Moscow at home a couple of weeks ago but they have shown they are not quite so good on their travels and come into this one on a run of 5 consecutive losses on their travels in the Champions League.

The majority of those defeats have come against some of the best teams in European Football although Roma were beaten in Shakhtar Donetsk last season too. Those results are a concern but even then I do think Roma can win this game with the amount of chances they are likely going to create against this CSKA Moscow team.

On Match Day CSKA Moscow did beat Real Madrid 1-0 here, but the European Champions are out of whack at the moment and even then they were unfortunate to not only avoid a defeat but to win in the Russian capital. Since that win CSKA Moscow have lost back to back home games in the Russian Premier League while they also lost 2 of their 3 home Group games in the Champions League twelve months ago.

Roma have been a little inconsistent this season with some young, talented players being brought in to back up the team that reached the Semi Final of the Champions League last season. They have not been dominant away from home, but Roma do create enough chances to think they can win here and move into a strong position to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

The first goal will be crucial, but I do think Roma can be backed despite their awful away record in the Champions League.


Valencia v Young Boys Pick: As a Manchester United fan seeing another draw between Valencia and Young Boys would be an ideal result as it could mean a place in the Last 16 could be secured before Match Day 6 is played.

Even a Young Boys win in Spain would not be a bad result for United who would then be a home win over the Swiss side from making it through.

Both Valencia and Young Boys are unconcerned by what Manchester United fans want though and these teams have to be well aware of the importance of winning this fixture to have a chance to progress from this Group. The losing team would almost certainly be missing out on a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League and that pressure can make it difficult for players to perform.

Valencia have really struggled to turn draws into wins all season which does make it hard to trust them to win any game of football. The 0-1 home loss to Girona was a really poor result for Valencia, although they created enough chances to think they are going to turn thing around and start putting the wins on the board.

They will have to respect a Young Boys team who should really have beaten Valencia in Switzerland a couple of weeks ago. However Young Boys have not been as good away from home in European Football in recent years and that may give Valencia enough of an edge to earn what will be a very important win for them on Wednesday.

The draws are a real concern for Valencia backers, but they have been creating chances and I think they can get the better of Young Boys this time. It may not be the result I would want to see but Valencia should also have chances on the counter attack if they are leading as Young Boys try and get back into the Group too.

I will look to back Valencia to win this game and will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Juventus v Manchester United Pick: It was an eye-opening experience for Manchester United fans and players alike as they were convincingly beaten by Juventus at Old Trafford two weeks ago to show how far behind the European elite Manchester United have slipped.

They get a second chance to prove the gap is not as big as it looked at Old Trafford but the test is much bigger when heading to Turin where Juventus have generally been so strong.

Prior to the win over Young Boys Juventus had failed to win any of 3 home Champions League games but those came against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur with the last of those seeing Juventus blow a 2-0 lead.

With recent Manchester United starts to fixtures it is a real concern that they could find themselves in a hole they can't dig out of in this fixture. Manchester United have shown enough to fight back and draw with Chelsea, but Juventus may be a step up from The Blues and this is a team who have made scoring look very, very easy for most of the season.

That is a real concern for Manchester United whose defensive shape has not been at its best and the chances teams are creating against them is a real problem ahead of this fixture and the Manchester derby on Sunday. It makes it very difficult to see a different outcome to this fixture on Match Day 4 as what we saw at Old Trafford, although Juventus are even more clinical in front of their own fans and the suggestion is that this margin of victory is also greater than two weeks ago.

Backing Juventus to win a game featuring two or more goals may be one for non-Manchester United fans out there.


Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: There are some major leaks coming out about Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, but I don't think there will be a serious impact on the playing side of things as they look to take complete control of their Champions League Group.

Back to back away wins have moved Manchester City to the top of the section, but it is a little strange to think they have lost their last 3 home Champions League games. I would imagine they stop that run on Wednesday when they face Shakhtar Donetsk for the second time in the Group having won 0-3 in the Ukraine two weeks ago.

Last season Manchester City were comfortable 2-0 winners over Shakhtar Donetsk and the feeling is they are going to be fairly comfortable again.

There will likely be some changes to the starting eleven with the Manchester derby in mind, but Pep Guardiola will want his team to keep the momentum going having won 4 in a row at the Etihad Stadium since their 1-2 loss to Lyon in the Champions League.

The attacking threat posed by Manchester City won't be lessened even with the changes they are likely to make. While Shakhtar Donetsk are a talented team who can be a threat going forward themselves, I think they play with a freedom that can be exposed by Manchester City as they were in the home game a couple of weeks ago.

As with any Manchester City home game against supposedly lesser teams they are going to be asked to cover a big handicap for a decent payout. Last season Shakhtar Donetsk lost 2-0 here and were 3-0 losers in Napoli and I do think Manchester City are playing with enough confidence to secure a big win here with the chances they are likely to create after once again dominating the ball against Shakhtar Donetsk.


Dynamo Kiev v Rennes Pick: There was an element of fortune for Dynamo Kiev in winning 1-2 in Rennes on Match Day 3 and they can't take anything for granted in this Europa League Group which looks to be one of the more competitive ones in the tournament.

Another victory would put Dynamo Kiev in a very strong position in the Group, but they have been inconsistent both at home and in Europe which makes it difficult to trust them.

Dynamo Kiev have only won 1 of their last 5 home games in European competition and they have failed to win their last 2 this season against Ajax and Astana. You could make a serious argument that both are superior to a Rennes team who have been struggling at the wrong end of the French top flight, but there may also be a slight lack of belief in the home dressing room which is contributing to some inconsistent results.

On the other hand Rennes may be unbeaten in their last 3 away games since their loss in Astana which has left them in 3rd place in the Group, but they have now lost 4 straight away Europa League ties.

They can create chances which makes them dangerous, but I think Dynamo Kiev will be a little too good for them with home advantage the key. Both teams can score goals, but I like Dynamo Kiev and will back them on the Asian Handicap to get the better of their visitors.


BATE Borisov v Chelsea Pick: It can be difficult to get a read on what a manager will do in the Europa League, especially those that manage in the Premier League but I think this game is pretty easy to read.

The layers seem to be on the same page as me with the Chelsea price looking fairly attractive as most of the starting players will be left at home.

A long trip to Belarus before a home game with Everton is not ideal for Maurizio Sarri, but he has rotated his squad throughout the Europa League Group Stage and it hasn't affected Chelsea at all. They have won all 3 Group games played and Chelsea have been far too good for the other teams in this section and I think they can win in Belarus when they visit on Match Day 4.

Last year BATE Borisov were being hammered by Arsenal in both games played against them in this competition. The 3-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge looks close, but Chelsea dominated and they should have enough about them in the final third to get the better of their hosts again.

BATE Borisov have lost back to back home games in European competition and conceded at least three goals in both against PSV Eindhoven and PAOK. They will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to contain Chelsea and I think the visitors will return with a comfortable victory and cover the Asian Handicap.


Lazio v Marseille Pick: You have to question the belief of the Marseille players as they head into Match Day 4 of the Europa League having lost 3 in a row in all competitions and also finding themselves on the brink of exiting the Europa League in which they had reached the Final a few months ago.

There is pressure on Marseille to find a way to win in the Italian capital, but they have a poor away record in the Europa League in recent years and it is hard to see how they turn that around.

As poor as Marseille have been on their travels Lazio have been strong at home and they know another win could see them put the Europa League to the back burner until February. They have been very good at home with 5 wins from their last 6 at the Stadio Olimpico and Lazio have created plenty of chances and scored plenty of goals in those games.

Marseille are better than what they showed in the 1-3 home defeat to Lazio, but following that up with back to back losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier while conceding at least two goals in each game is hard to ignore. They have to attack here too with a point likely not good enough as one more for Lazio from their remaining two games would see them at least finish above Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt are clear.

With a team likely having to come forward, Lazio can punish Marseille on the counter attack and I will back the home team to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Rapid Vienna v Villarreal Pick: With just 3 points separating the four teams in this Group, a win on Match Day 4 for either Rapid Vienna or Villarreal could be a huge boost in their bid to earn their place in the Last 32 of this competition.

The 5-0 loss in Spain has put Rapid Vienna in a difficult position, but they have two games left to play at home in the Group and winning both should be good enough to move out of the section.

It won't be easy against a Villarreal team who have drawn half of their last 8 games in all competitions, but Rapid Vienna will have chances. Villarreal have not won any of their last 4 away games and they have been conceding plenty of goals in that time which is something that Rapid Vienna will look to exploit.

I expect the home team to create chances, but Villarreal should also be able to create some opportunities. They have scored in their last 6 away games and Villarreal have been able to create plenty of chances of their own while the dominant win over Rapid Vienna will give the players confidence.

These teams met in the Europa League Group Stage three seasons ago and it was Rapid Vienna who edged out Villarreal when they played here. They did share out three goals that day and I think these teams will both score on Match Day 4.

With the importance of the three points on the line, I think the teams will take risks to win this game too and I think it is worth backing at least four goals to be shared out between these teams on Thursday.


Vidi v PAOK Pick: This has been a Group that has been dominated by Chelsea and not seen one home win outside of the two the English club have earned in the section.

Vidi were beaten at home by BATE Borisov who have lost at home to PAOK who were last seen losing to Vidi at home which means second place in the Group is wide open.

Both teams will have all to play for on Thursday and I am slightly surprised PAOK are the favourites away from home. It wasn't an undeserved loss at home two weeks ago and so the layers are expecting a lot for things to be turned around that significantly.

However PAOK are far better than what they showed in the game at home and Vidi are a hard team to read. They can certainly make this a very competitive game and I think both teams will have their chances to score which makes the price on seeing both scoring in this fixture look appealing enough.

An early goal could really open the whole game up with the three points being so important for both teams assuming Chelsea beat BATE Borisov in the other game in the Group.


Arsenal v Sporting Pick: The win in Portugal two weeks has put Arsenal on the brink of making it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and this is clearly a competition that Unai Emery wants to be successful in.

He has won the Europa League as manager multiple times as manager of Sevilla and Emery has admitted he would prefer returning to the Champions League with a trophy rather than simply finishing in the top four of the Premier League.

Arsenal look good in the Premier League despite back to back draws against Crystal Palace and Liverpool and they will want to get back to winning ways ahead of the next international break. Two home games remain before the international break begins and Emery looks to be a manager who will play strong teams in the Europa League so I am not concerned about backing The Gunners.

Two weeks they looked significantly better than Sporting and I expect the home team to frank that form. As solid a start Sporting have made to the new season it is clear they are not the best European travellers with 4 losses from their last 6 away European ties.

Losing key players in the summer has not put Sporting in as difficult a position as was suggested it was going to be, but they are going to need to be a lot better on Match Day 4 than they were when they hosted Arsenal.

All in all it is hard to see anything other than a strong Arsenal win as Emery looks to secure a place in the Last 32. The manager should pick a team to reflect his desire to put the Europa League aside until February prior to the busy festive period in England and I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap.


Bayer Leverkusen v Zurich Pick: After a 3-2 win for Zurich on Match Day 3 between these teams in Switzerland I am expecting to see another high-scoring game between Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich when they meet for the second time in this Group.

The two teams look certain to be heading into the Last 32 of the Europa League together, but Bayer Leverkusen will want to get back on track in trying to win the Group.

Leverkusen games at home have been full of goals as they have shown a real attacking intent, but the Bundesliga team have not been as strong defensively as they would like. Even a Zurich team coming out of the Switzerland top flight can cause problems for Leverkusen, although I am expecting the German team to have enough going forward to hurt their visitors too.

Zurich really have nothing to lose here and that should see them take part in an entertaining game. A draw would put them in command of the Group, but Zurich will be looking to work the counter attack throughout this fixture and I do think there will be goals in this one.

Backing at least four more to be shared out by Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich after the five shared out in Switzerland is my selection.


Celtic v Leipzig Pick: Both Celtic and Leipzig are coming into Match Day 4 in decent form and I do think this is going to be a much more competitive fixture than when they met in Germany two weeks ago.

On that day Leipzig were far too good for Celtic and the Bundesliga club could have won by a much larger margin than the eventual 2-0 scoreline.

It was a bad day in the office for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players, but they should be able to produce a much more all around effort when playing at Celtic Park. They have not been dominant at home, but Celtic have won 5 of their last 6 European games here and they are facing a Leipzig team who are still finding their feet when it comes to travelling for European games.

Leipzig did win at Rosenborg in this Group though which will give them the belief they will need to take into this game.

Overall it looks very difficult to pick a winner, but I would have to expect there will be more chances in front of goal for both teams. They created enough two weeks ago to share out at least three goals and the situation for Celtic is clear that they likely need to win this game which means they could leave spaces for Leipzig to exploit in this one.

Celtic should be able to be a little better in all aspects of their game in this fixture and I think both teams will be able to score in this game. With the situation as it is, I will look for these teams to share out at least three goals on Thursday in what could be one of the more entertaining Europa League games to be played on Match Day 4.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.85 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Napoli-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lazio & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna-Villarreal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vidi-PAOK Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen-Zurich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic-Leipzig Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November: 5-5, - 1.66 Units (20 Units Staked, - 8.30% Yield)