ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2018 (November 16th)

The Group Stage of the World Tour Finals will come to a close on Friday and it is all to play for with all four players still capable of making it through to the Semi Finals to be played on Saturday.

Like with the other Group being played in London, things are most simple for the players who are either 2-0 or 0-2.

John Isner faces Alexander Zverev knowing he needs to win and hope Novak Djokovic can beat Marin Cilic to have any hope of making it through the Group. A straight sets win will be enough for Isner as long as Cilic is beaten, but a three set win makes things a lot more complicated especially if the Croatian is also beaten in three sets.

In that situation the three players will be locked on the same 3-5 set scores for the week and it would come down to percentage of games won which is currently being won by Cilic.

Novak Djokovic's situation is much clearer after winning back to back matches in straight sets- the Cilic win in three sets over John Isner was actually enough to send him through to the Semi Final but both Zverev and Isner will be hoping Djokovic is not going to let his foot off the pedal in this one.

The pressure is on Alexander Zverev who needs to win at least one set to have a chance to progress, but he may need to win his set by a wide margin and narrowly lose the other two to have that chance. In that case he would also need Cilic to either lose in straight sets or lose two sets by wide margins in a three set defeat, but that complication will be cleared up by the time Cilic and Djokovic take to the court later in the day.


Alexander Zverev-John Isner First Set Tie-Break: Matches between Alexander Zverev and John Isner have tended to be very close on the hard courts and the American was finally able to get the better of the youngster when beating him in the Final of the Miami Masters earlier this season.

The numbers in their three previous hard court matches have been very similar with both holding serve in the high percentage marks of around 88-92% and there has been a similar 27% return points won.

It may be a surprise to read that it is Isner who has actually created the majority of break points in all three previous hard court matches including 12 at the Miami Masters in what was a deserved three set win. The conditions in Miami may be much more to the liking of Isner with the court at the O2 Arena not playing as fast as he would perhaps like with more work needed to hit through the court.

He hasn't been helped by facing two return players like Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic who can be so effective on their day.

That doesn't look to be the case when he faces Zverev in this final Group match which is so important to both players. While he was effective against the Marin Cilic serve on Monday, Zverev struggled with this aspect against Novak Djokovic and the way he fell apart in the second set has to be a real concern for his fans.

Over the course of 2018 Zverev has shown he can be an effective returner, but he is also someone who can get down on himself very quickly and that has to be a concern against someone like Isner who will walk to the line and look to deliver big serves all day long. The American has to be feeling a little tired too though with the first three setter in the tournament being played on Wednesday evening, while there is an emotional factor in play too.

It was revealed on Wednesday that John Isner had heard of a friend's passing and there is no way you can just put that to the back of your mind easily. It was still raw news when he took to the court versus Marin Cilic, but there will have been more time for emotions to affect Isner with a day to digest the news before heading back into the O2 Arena.

That is a real 'x' factor that can't be determined as it could easily go two ways for him in this match.

Instead I am going back to a market that paid out on Wednesday and that is backing the first set to end with a tie-breaker between two players who will be heavily relying on the serve to set themselves up. Their last two hard court matches have both begun with a tie-breaker and both are capable of producing big serves which can limit the damage done on the return unless playing the very best in that regards.

Neither player has really strong holding numbers so far in this tournament (both around 75%) but neither Isner nor Zverev has been very productive at breaking serve either. I do give the German the slight edge as his focus may be on this match much more than Isner who is going through personal issues, while Zverev has a higher break percentage so far in the tournament, but the last two matches between these players have needed a tie-breaker to decide the first set and that looks like it could be the case again.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: With a place in the Semi Final secured on Wednesday and his opponent 'needing' to win to give himself a chance of joining him, there are some question marks about how much effort Novak Djokovic will want to invest in this final Group match.

Personally I am not sure it is situation where you can turn the tap on and off when it comes to motivation to win matches and I do believe that Djokovic is the kind of player who goes out to win every match.

Barring a complete and utter tank, I am not sure how Djokovic could conserve energy and his style of play is one that does involve a lot of running. This is also a player who is used to playing on consecutive days and finding wins so he is well rested going into Friday and should be strong for the weekend as he looks to add another ATP World Tour Finals title to his collection.

Marin Cilic has a poor overall record against Djokovic, but he did come from a set down to beat the Serb in the Final of the Queens tournament played in London in the lead up to Wimbledon. Since then he has lost two tight matches to Djokovic on the hard courts in Cincinnati and Paris, the latter of which took place just a couple of weeks ago.

Looking at the numbers from those matches it is clear that Cilic is put under a lot more pressure behind his serve than Djokovic and that is underlined by the Croatian having a 70% hold figure compared with the World Number 1 who is up at 82%.

It is a big difference between them and Djokovic was a more dominant winner when these two met in Paris at the end of last month compared with Cincinnati in the summer when he was looking to peak for the US Open. In the match in Paris Djokovic created a lot more break point chances and gave up a lot fewer and his performances so far here in London suggests he is going to be very, very difficult to beat.

Novak Djokovic has yet to be broken in the O2 Arena in 2018 and he has only faced two break points which came in the one game against Alexander Zverev on Wednesday. His performances have been considerably stronger than what Cilic has been able to produce and the latter had been under intense pressure from Zverev in their match earlier this week.

Cilic has held serve at 89% so far this week, which is impressive, but that is skewed by the three set win over John Isner and he was given a tough time by Zverev once the latter found his feet. That has to be a concern against Djokovic who has broken serve three times in both matches played and who has broken the Cilic serve at 30% of return games in 2018 hard court matches.

The intensity, or lack thereof, is a slight concern as far as backing Novak Djokovic is concerned, but he won't want to go into the Semi Final with a loss. Another strong win will make a statement to the other three remaining players in the draw and I think Djokovic can cover the same number he was successfully able to do when these players met in Paris a couple of weeks ago.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-John Isner First Set Tie-Break @ 2.22 Paddy Power (2 Units- 1.11 Units on Zverev win 7-6 First Set, 0.89 Units on Isner to win 7-6 First Set)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals: 5-6, - 0.14 Units (21 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)