NFL Week 12 Picks 2018 (November 22-26)

Last week was a pretty miserable one for the NFL Picks I made but I can't take too long to dwell on that and instead I have to analyse and move on.

I made some poor selections and also didn't have a lot of luck with Houston blowing a big lead and then missing a Field Goal that would have covered the spread.

But I have to move on with a busy Week 12 coming up beginning with the three Thanksgiving Day games.

I will add the NFL Picks from Sunday and Monday either on Friday evening or Saturday and I will have the NFL Picks up as the 'Featured Post' from Saturday afternoon.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: The traditional opening Thanksgiving Day game is hosted by the Detroit Lions but this is not a team who have enjoyed a lot of success on this day. However you can't ignore the fact that they had won four Thanksgiving Day games in a row before losing to the Minnesota Vikings last season and in 2018 they will be hosting another Divisional rival who look to be heading to the Play Offs.

If you had just come out from living under a rock you may assume the Detroit Lions are hosting either the Green Bay Packers or Minnesota Vikings after reading that last sentence. However the NFC North is being run by the Chicago Bears who beat the Vikings on Sunday Night Football to take control of the Division at 7-3.

You can't argue that this is not an ideal spot for the Chicago Bears as they become the first team to play on Sunday Night Football ahead of a Thanksgiving Day appearance. To make things even more difficult from a scheduling point of view, the Bears are playing in the first of three games on Thanksgiving Day which means they have had even less time to prepare and it is hard to know how they will respond.

Mitchell Trubisky has been all but ruled out for this game too after suffering a shoulder injury towards the end of the win over the Vikings. The feeling was that he would have played if this game had been scheduled for Sunday, but instead the young Quarter Back will have additional rest before returning in Week 13 and it is Chase Daniel who will begin at Quarter Back.

Daniel has some experience of the system used by Matt Nagy in Chicago from his time with him at the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is only the third ever start he will have made in the NFL. That is a difficult position for the Quarter Back and it is hard to know how he will respond to the pressures of playing on such an occasion as this one, but Daniel should be able to have some success moving the ball with short passes and check downs likely to be key for the backup.

There should be time for Daniel thanks to the strong Offensive Line play, but the pressure will be on the Quarter Back to make the right plays as both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen figure to have a difficult time running the ball. They struggled in the first game with the Lions and Detroit have shown toughness stopping the run in recent weeks although the Secondary have not really been able to stall drives as they would like.

Matthew Stafford had a pretty terrible time against the Chicago Bears when he played them at Soldier Field but he had tended to dominate them at home over recent years. It may be much tougher for him to do that on Thursday as Stafford is missing a number of key Offensive weapons who are either banged up or have been traded away.

The Quarter Back has not been protected as well as he would have liked and the Detroit Offensive Line figures to be challenged all day by the Chicago Defensive Line. With the pass rush pressure generated by the Bears, Stafford figures to be throwing under duress throughout the game and that will only mean missing Marvin Jones and Golden Tate that much more.

It would help if he was going to be supported by a strong running game to open up the passing lanes, but Kerryon Johnson was banged up in Week 11 and looks set to miss out. Even if Johnson was available, running the ball against the Chicago Bears would not have been easy for Detroit and the Defensive unit could be the key factor in determining the outcome of this one.

Chicago are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games in Detroit and they have a poor Thursday Night Football record. The spot could be better with an extremely short week to come without their starting Quarter Back but I think that is going to inspire the Defensive players to really step up and get after Matt Stafford as they did in the home game against the Detroit Lions.

Chase Daniel may not have had too many starts in the NFL, but he should be comfortable in the system and I think the Bears can be backed to win here. They are still the favourite even though it looks like Trubisky is going to sit out and I do think they are the better team which should see them prevail.

The Bears Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays to shift the game in their favour and I am looking to back them to cover here.


Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It wouldn't be very difficult to make a case to say the NFC East is the worst Division in the NFL after being amongst the best a few seasons ago. The surprise would be that the current Super Bowl Champions reside in this Division, but none of the teams have won more than six games so far while only the Washington Redskins have a winning record in 2018.

It will be difficult for the Redskins to keep that going through the injuries they are suffering and they have dropped two of their last three games. The Offensive Line is seriously hurting at the moment and it was a big Sack last week in the home loss to the Houston Texans that saw starting Quarter Back Alex Smith lost for the season.

Smith suffered a pretty horrific injury in that game and the keys to the Offensive unit have been turned over to Colt McCoy who has been a backup in Washington for a number of years. McCoy has been rumoured to be one of the best backups in the NFL because of the intensity of his preparation and I do think he is going to be comfortable in the system so I don't think the Redskins will be a lot worse without Smith in the line up.

The problem would have been the same if Smith was available and that is the Offensive Line is hurting so badly at the moment that Washington are finding it tough to move the chains with consistency. In the last three games the Redskins have been outgained significantly in games, but the Defensive unit have had a 'bend, don't break' mentality which has kept them in games.

Washington are not going to move the chains easily in this one with the Dallas front seven looking like they have a serious edge over this Redskins Offensive Line. McCoy will be able to scramble away from some of the pressure, but ultimately it is very difficult to throw the ball under duress constantly and I think the Cowboys are going to be able to stall some drives just with the pressure they can get up front.

Even running the ball won't be easy against the Cowboys who have speed on the edges and at Linebacker to chase down Running Backs and Wide Receivers being used in jet sweep formations. Leighton Vander Esch has been a monster coming in to play more minutes with Sean Lee sidelined and the Cowboys look like a team who will force Washington into unwanted third and long situations which they can exploit.

The Redskins haven't scored more then 20 points in any of their last seven games and they will struggle to surpass that number in this one. However it is still a big spread for the Cowboys who will need to find some consistency with their own Offense to have a chance to do that.

Dak Prescott has been given a real weapon on the Receiving front with the arrival of Amari Cooper, but he needs to be more aware of the situation around him with teams being able to get to the Quarter Back too often for Dallas' liking. He will be faced with some intense pressure from the Washington Redskins pass rush, but Dallas can slow things down by giving the ball to Ezekiel Elliot and getting him to establish the run.

It should be possible for the Cowboys to do that against a Washington team who have given up 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games. The Secondary have also been suffering by giving up some major plays and the arrival of Cooper gives Prescott a genuine target that will need to be given attention by the Redskins.

All in all it does feel like Dallas will be able to move the chains with more consistency than the Redskins and I think the Cowboys Defensive pressure could force a couple of turnovers.

The trends in this series do point to the Redskins being the right side to back as they have a strong record here and the underdog has gone 31-10 against the spread in the last forty-one in the series. Colt McCoy did lead the Redskins to a win over the Cowboys in Dallas back in 2014 and the Cowboys don't have a great recent record on Thanksgiving Day.

However Dallas look to have an edge on both sides of the ball though and I think the Defensive front seven can cause havoc for the Redskins which could lead to one or turnovers to turn the game in their favour. Dallas are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against their Divisional rivals and they should be highly motivated to win and erase the loss to the Washington Redskins from earlier this season.

A defeat would mean Dallas are back to two games behind the Redskins, but that would effectively be three games with Washington having two wins over the Cowboys. It should mean a big effort from the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day and I think they can find the big plays on both side of the ball to win and cover.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There have been times in the past where an NFL team was flying in November and found out they had peaked too early when it came down to the Play Offs. For some reason it feels a lot different for the New Orleans Saints who have found a real balance on the Offensive side of the ball and seen their young Defensive playmakers from last season rounding into better form.

A three game lead at the top of the NFC South has put the New Orleans Saints on the brink of securing a Wild Card spot, but the focus may already have turned to trying to win out and secure the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. That would put them in a very strong position to make the Super Bowl, but the Saints can't overlook their Divisional rivals with four of their final six games against NFC South foes.

They complete their season against the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving Day and their visitors are going to be desperate having dropped back to back games to fall to 4-6. You have to feel the Falcons are going to need to go at least 5-1 in their final six games to have a chance to make the Play Offs in what has been a disappointing season for the team.

At the start of the 2018 season Atlanta had to be thinking about playing the Super Bowl in their home Stadium, but they have struggled Defensively all season and it is hard to see that changing this week. Deion Jones was officially ruled out for this game on Wednesday despite edging closer to a return and that is a huge blow to a Defensive unit which has struggled without him.

New Orleans are going to be potentially short-handed on the Receiving corps with Brandon Marshall only just arriving with the team and Tre'Quan Smith didn't practice which means he may not be able to back the career day he had against the Philadelphia Eagles. It shouldn't matter too much for Drew Brees who seems to throw a new name out to the masses every week when targeting players that teams haven't been prepared to deal with.

Brees could also hand the ball off to the likes of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara and both should have success against the Atlanta Defensive Line which has given up almost 160 yards per game on the ground at 5.8 yards per carry in their last three games. The Falcons have been weaker on the road too so New Orleans should be able to open up their passing lanes by running the ball, while both Running Backs are a threat taking short throws long distances.

The Atlanta Secondary hasn't played horribly, but they find it tough to get off the field and this is the most powerful Offensive unit they have faced since giving up 41 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Instead of trying to contain New Orleans, the Falcons may need to rely on Matt Ryan and the Offensive unit to keep up with the home team in a shoot out. This is a strong team with the ball in their hands with some quality Receivers that should help them move the chains much better than the Philadelphia Eagles were able to do on Sunday.

Atlanta could be made to look very one-dimensional because teams have not found it easy to run the ball against the New Orleans Defensive Line. There are a couple of injuries up front which may make it a little easier for Tevin Coleman to find some running room, but teams have quickly found out they need to throw the ball to keep up with the Saints and this game has the feel of being no different.

Matt Ryan should have some successes, but he has to be careful of the New Orleans pass rush which has managed to rattle Quarter Backs as they have been able to pin back their ears once teams are in obvious passing situations. There has been an improvement in the New Orleans Secondary which has seen the team turn the ball over and also make some plays to get off the field and it won't be as easy for Atlanta to move the chains as it was when they played New Orleans at home back in September.

I would figure Atlanta have more success than the Philadelphia Eagles did, but I stepped in front of this New Orleans buzz-saw on Sunday and that did not end well for me. Playing under the lights in the SuperDome has proved to be very effective for New Orleans and they have beaten Atlanta by 10 points in two of their last three home games against them.

The underdog does have a very strong record in this series, going 8-2 against the spread in the last ten, but Atlanta are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven visits to New Orleans. The Falcons have not been very good on the road this season and they are 1-4 against the spread in those games while being blown out by Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

New Orleans have been a covering machine at the moment and the line has shrunk just enough at a couple of layers to be worth being behind the Saints in this one. This has the feel of a shoot out and I expect the Falcons to be a lot more competitive than the Eagles, but ultimately it may end up the same way with the Saints pulling away thanks to some big time plays from the Defensive unit to give Drew Brees the extra possessions to win and cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)