ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2018 (November 14th)

The ATP World Tour Finals continue to chug along and the second Group, the Gustavo Kuerten Group, will move through the second round robin of matches on Wednesday.

Fans attending the O2 Arena will certainly be hoping for better matches than what were produced on Tuesday as I described the two Singles matches involved players who could be considered 'no shows' in what were tremendously poor performances from Kei Nishikori and Dominic Thiem.

I backed Kevin Anderson so I am not just saying that out of a position of frustration, but I was disappointed with the lack of intensity both Nishikori and Thiem displayed considering what was on the line. Those two players will face each other on Thursday with plenty still on the line for both as we have yet to have any player eliminated from the tournament.

The dominant win in favour of Kevin Anderson has all but secured his place in the Semi Final, but he will finish up with Roger Federer so I imagine the big man will keep his intensity up as he looks to put an exclamation point on the 2018 season.


Before that we have to get through another round of matches in the second Group as we still await the first player to officially confirm a Semi Final spot and one to be eliminated. That could change on Wednesday evening if the matches go the same way as the predictions which you can read below.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: These two players both produced winning performances as expected on Monday although it was a much tougher afternoon for Alexander Zverev than it perhaps should have been. He had multiple games with break points against Marin Cilic but couldn't convert the chances when they came his way in an eventual straight sets win thanks to two tie-breakers.

Ultimately the key for Zverev is that he did win and winning in straight sets means he will be in a position to move through to the Semi Final if he can upset Novak Djokovic on Wednesday.

This is without a doubt the toughest challenge for a player on the ATP Tour, especially over the last six months when Djokovic has returned to something like the form that saw him dominate men's tennis. The two Grand Slam wins have moved him back to World Number 1 and Djokovic was a convincing winner on Monday as his return of serve gave John Isner fits throughout the match.

Despite the huge serve the American possesses, it has been a match up Djokovic has enjoyed and his return of serve could be a huge weapon in this match too. When Djokovic and Zverev met at the Shanghai Masters last month the World Number 1 dominated the match and had Zverev under constant pressure on his own serve and that could make the difference in this match too.

The Djokovic serve has been in exceptional form on the hard courts since he won the title in Wimbledon and seemingly had his confidence fully restored. In that time Djokovic has held serve at 90% of the time and he has managed to pick that up further since winning the title at the US Open which makes it very difficult to see him being knocked off by anyone.

The young German will need to return at the top of his level to challenge Djokovic as the expectation is that his own serve will be put under severe pressure throughout the match. There will be times Zverev finds the booming serve to get through a game, but most of the time I expect Djokovic to be involved in those games and I think that will see him break down Zverev's game and win by a good margin which should see him cover the spread.


Marin Cilic-John Isner First Set Tie-Break: If the John Isner serve is being attacked as effectively as Novak Djokovic was able to do on Monday it is always going to be a big ask for the American to win such a match. The head to head with Djokovic already gave us a real indication as to how difficult the match was going to be for Isner so I am not expecting him to be overly downbeat about his chances of making it through to the Semi Final in the ATP World Tour Finals.

The head to head with Marin Cilic is going to give Isner much more confidence and he is playing an opponent who has been having some rough times since the end of the US Open. While the American is down 3-7 against Cilic, Isner has won three of the last four matches including in their sole match at the Miami Masters back earlier this year.

To be perfectly honest neither Isner nor Cilic have been in very good form in the last couple of months and that makes it a slightly more difficult match to read. You know what you're going to get with Isner whose booming serve continues to be very difficult to break, unless your name is Novak Djokovic, but Isner's return game has been really struggling.

That's not going to be a huge surprise to anyone who watches tennis through the year, but his break percentage on the hard courts had been around 10% and has dropped down to 4% over the last two months since the end of the US Open. That 4% mark is similar to the level against Cilic throughout his career and even during the run of three wins from five matches since the beginning of 2016 Isner has only managed to improve that to 6.5%.

To say it is going to be difficult to see Isner breaking serve in this one is an understatement.

However it could be tough for Marin Cilic too considering the form he has shown over the last couple of months himself. The serve remains a strong weapon for the Croatian, but his own break percentage has dropped off from his overall 2018 record on the hard courts and Cilic has broken the Isner serve at 11% in the same time frame during which he has won two and lost three matches against the American.

With both players knowing the importance of the match, the serve is going to be very important to both and I think that is going to be the dominant shot in this match. I don't think anticipate either player having a host of break point chances and the odds for a first set tie-break is very appealing here with that in mind.

Three of the last five matches between these players has seen a first set tie-break played and one of the exceptions ended in a 7-5 set. It also means six of the ten previous matches between these opponents have ended in a first set tie-break and the two servers coupled with the poor returning numbers of late suggests we can get another here.

John Isner may also have the mental edge with three wins from four matches against Cilic and he does look a big price to win here too.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marin Cilic-John Isner First Set Tie-Breaker @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

ATP World Tour Finals: 3-3, + 0.24 Units (12 Units Staked, + 2% Yield)