I am away this week but I have been able to write out a few thoughts about the NFL Week 13 games and Picks which can be read below.
With the way this week is going, I might only have the Picks from Sunday and Monday selections, but it all depends on how long I have to add the thoughts I have written down.
In Week 14 I will have the season updates.
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints are both leading individual Divisions in the NFC, but there still looks to be a big gap between these teams. The Saints are dominating the NFC South and will be disappointed if they are not able to secure a top Seed in the Conference, while the Cowboys look like the best of a pretty poor bunch in the NFC East.
I think both teams are going to be in the Play Offs with the Saints closer to securing a post-season berth and they could take a big step towards that at the end of this Thursday Night Football game.
Both teams are off big Thanksgiving Day games and so both should be well prepared for this one too.
However it is going to be a big challenge for the Cowboys to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans Offensive unit who have been blowing opponents away since a Week 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The best hope Dallas has is by stiffening up on the line of scrimmage and containing Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram and hope they can put Brees in third and long and get after him with a strong pass rush.
It is difficult to see that happening with Dallas giving up 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games and both Kamara and Ingram could be a pass catching threat coming out of the backfield. The Cowboys Secondary has really not played up to the level that makes me believe they won't be able to slow the passing game of the Saints and Brees throws the ball so quickly that any pass rush could be negated by a strong Offensive Line.
This all adds up to pressure being on Dak Prescott to keep the points coming for the Dallas Cowboys who have scored at least 22 points in each of three games since the surprising defeat to the Tennessee Titans at home. Prescott has managed to force the ball through to Amari Cooper to get the passing game looking like it is returning to form and that has opened things up for Ezekiel Elliot.
Elliot has been running the ball pretty well, but the Saints have been proud of stopping the run in recent games. There has also been an improvement in the play of the younger players in the Secondary and that has seen New Orleans step up and make some big stops that has given their Offensive unit a chance to take complete control of games.
The Saints have not been as strong on the road, but they are 20-7 against the spread in their last twenty-seven away from the SuperDome. They are also facing a Cowboys team who are 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen against a team with a winning record, while they are also 2-7 against the spread in their last nine hosting a team with a winning record on the road.
New Orleans are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven of this series and I think this is a team who has too much firepower for the Dallas Cowboys. If the Saints go two scores up it will quickly mean Dallas move away from the game plan and I think that is when New Orleans will make some big Defensive plays to give their Offense a chance to pull away in this one.
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
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