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Saturday, 27 April 2013

Weekend Football Picks (April 27-29)

Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It was a vital last 15 minutes for Tottenham Hotspur last week as they turned around a 0-1 deficit against Manchester City and won the game 3-1 to stay in contention for a place in the Premier League top four.

That was a huge result for Spurs as they managed to close the gap to 2 points to Arsenal in 3rd with a game in hand to play and that will give the confidence to the players that they are capable of taking away one of the Champions League positions.

On the other hand, it was a terrible week for Wigan Athletic who not just lost at West Ham United, but saw a lot of their rivals earn big wins as the likes of Sunderland, Norwich City and Stoke City all picked up three points to move clear of the relegation zone. It looks like it will be a fight between Wigan and Aston Villa for the final relegation spot and with Villa hosting Sunderland, that makes this game even more important for the home side not to fall too far behind with games running out.

Both teams will need the three points and there have been plenty of goals in their home/away games respectively in recent weeks. I can see both creating chances against the other and the fact that Spurs can rely on a few more of their attacking players makes me think the over 2.5 goals is the right call.

Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: Luis Suarez was banned for the rest of the season and the start of next and it hasn't been the best time of the season for Liverpool as they end their campaign with a whimper rather than a bang.

I am actually surprised the layers have Newcastle United as the underdog in this game as I would have had the teams matched a little more evenly. Take away the 0-3 loss to Sunderland when Simon Mignolet had a blinder, and Newcastle United have been winning a fair few games at home over the last couple of months.

I just think the absence of Suarez does make Liverpool a little less of a threat going forward and I do think Newcastle have enough quality to fashion a couple of chances at least. As long as they fall to the right people, there is every chance the home side pick up the three points and they are worth a small interest.

Chelsea v Swansea Pick: The last few weeks have been tough for Swansea to focus after winning the Capital One Cup and I think they will find it tough at Stamford Bridge. Swansea did win here in their Capital One Cup run, but they have generally struggled for goals on their travels in the top flight and that may be the case again.

Chelsea have put one put into the Europa League Final thanks to their win in Switzerland on Thursday, but they are also in a very strong position to finish  in the top four in the Premier League and I don't think they will want to damage that without putting in the work here.

The rotation does make it hard to keep tabs on what Chelsea side will come out, but I do think they will win this game and are likely to do it with a clean sheet to boot.

Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: The Champions come to North London in what is always an important game and I do think Manchester United will have serious intentions of picking up the three points despite what the layers may think.

The absence of Olivier Giroud is a problem for Arsenal, but they are clearly still a team that has goals in the side, while Robin Van Persie will secretly be hoping to get his own chances I am sure. Van Persie has 5 goals in his last 3 games for United and will know the best way to get through this defence having seen them in training over the last few years.

I would be surprised if we don't see goals in the game and I think a 2-1 scoreline either way is definitely a player. However, there have also been a few 1-3 wins for United and a 2-2 draw in recent games between United and Arsenal at the Emirates so a small interest in over 3.5 goals.

MY PICKS: Wigan Athletic-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 3.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

April Update8-19, - 11.65 Units (39 Units Staked, - 29.87% Yield)

March Final16-20, + 7.43 Units (55 Units Staked, + 13.51% Yield)
February Final14-23, - 2.81 Units (48 Units Staked, - 5.85% Yield)
January Final10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13+ 12.57 Units (351 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)

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