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Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (April 30th)

Victor Hanescu - 2.5 games v Rui Machado: Rui Machado will have the crowd behind him in this one and must be feeling a little better about his game having come through three rounds of qualifiers to reach this First Round match. He hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last few months due to injury and that has seen him slip outside of the top 300 in the World Rankings.

It isn't the easiest of matches to get going in the main draw as Victor Hanescu has always been very comfortable on the clay courts and is coming off a Quarter Final appearance last week in Bucharest.

The majority of Hanescu's main court wins over the last few seasons have come on the slower clay courts and I think he will be a little too battle hardened for Machado. There just isn't any substitute for playing competitive matches and Hanescu also possesses a bigger serve which should help find a way to hold on to serve a little more easier at times.

They have met twice before on the clay with both matches being won by Hanescu and I think he completes the hat-trick with a 6-3, 6-4 win in this First Round match.

Horacio Zeballos - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: Gastao Elias is a young Portuguese player who has experienced a lot of success on the clay courts in his career, but almost exclusively at the Challenger level and it will be interesting to see how he copes with a Main Tour draw in this match. He was invited to play in the First Round here last season, but ended up being beaten in three sets against one of his compatriots and this is likely to be a tougher test.

However, Horacio Zeballos has spent a lot of time losing matches since surprising Rafael Nadal in the Final at Vina Del Mar earlier this season when the Spaniard was making his return to the Tour after the injury suffered at Wimbledon.

It does seem that Zeballos has perhaps struggled to cope with having a target on his back after that win and he is just 3-7 since. That has to be a concern for me, although I don't think Elias is perhaps at the level to take advantage.

They have met three times before in their careers so both should be familiar with one another and although all of those matches have needed three sets to separate them and it is Zeballos that leads 2-1, I think the Argentinian can perhaps do enough to cover this spread in this one.

Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: Julia Goerges was very unfortunate to lose against Petra Kvitova last week in Stuttgart, but she showed enough form to think she is capable of seeing of Monica Puig in the First Round here.

It was the clay courts where Goerges really began making a name for herself on the WTA Tour a couple of seasons ago and she is clearly very comfortable playing on this surface. While that is the case, it hasn't been a good start to the 2013 season in general for the German and she has suffered a couple of surprising losses.

However, her match up against a player that has not had a lot of experience at the highest level of the Women's game looks like a good one for Goerges to get started here in Portugal and I would expect her to come through some breaks of serve to record a 7-5, 6-3 win.

MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Horacio Zeballos - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)

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