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Thursday, 25 April 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (April 25th)

Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: I think Janko Tipsarevic made a telling comment last week after his exit at Monte Carlo when he stated this is 'more than about forehands and backhands now'... It is clear that his poor recent form is beginning to affect him mentally and he is not feeling particularly confident at the moment, but I think there is a bit of value taking him to win this match today.

Anyone who has seen Santiago Giraldo play will know that he is a player capable of hitting opponents off the court when he gets going, like he did to Juan Carlos Ferrero a couple of seasons ago in Rome. However, he can be up and down in his performances and while happy on the clay courts, I think he has the game that will help Tipsarevic get going too.

I think Giraldo can help by making a few unforced errors and I think the fact that Tipsarevic is here in Bucharest suggests he is trying to work his way into some form by playing in a weaker tournament than the one taking place in Barcelona.

This will surely be tight at times, but I think Tipsarevic is too big a price to ignore and can move through to the Quarter Final.

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Julia Goerges: I have picked Petra Kvitova as my sole outright pick from the weeks tennis, but I think she is worth taking to see off Julia Goerges in this Third Round match.

It took some guts to see off Annika Beck in the last Round, but Kvitova has been playing some solid tennis in recent weeks, while still not quite at the level that brought her the Wimbledon title a  couple of years ago. However, I think she is playing at a decent enough level to see off Goerges.

The German has recently recovered from an injury and hasn't been in the best form in recent weeks. Goerges also had a down season on the slower clay courts last season after a breakthrough time on the surface in 2011 and I just think Kvitova can exert enough pressure to see her off.

I would not be surprised if we see a few breaks of serve in the contest, but I do think Kvitova can be the one that comes out on top and will be able to cover the spread.

Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Nadia Petrova: The slower surfaces don't particularly suit Nadia Petrova so much as her movement is not always the best and that is exposed on the clay where she is likely to have to play one more shot.

Petrova is also facing a tough opponent in Ana Ivanovic who is capable of hitting the ball as hard as Petrova and is slighly better on moving on this surface, although her own movement is not exactly inspiring at times.

I am not surprised that Ivanovic has won the last 3 matches between these players on the clay courts and she has shown some good form in beating Mona Barthel and Angelique Kerber on this surface over the last week. I think the Serbian former French Open winner will come through 7-5, 6-3.

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos: Albert Ramos is a solid competitor these days, but I think he is still capable of making too many unforced errors and that can be exposed by someone like Kei Nishikori.

It is tough to hit through Nishikori when you're at the top of the Rankings, so the players lower down don't have the consistency to really get through him as much. I was not surprised to see that Nishikori beat Ramos twice last season on the clay courts and I think he will likely be a little too consistent again.

The young Japanese star is Number 15 in the World Rankings at the moment, but I could see him closing to the top 10 in the next six weeks or so as he has nothing to defend in terms of points. That means he will look for a good run here in Barcelona before following it up with big performances in Madrid and Rome and the French Open and that will likely start with a 7-5, 6-3 win in this match.

MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-2, + 8.54 Units (18 Units Staked, + 47.44% Yield)

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