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Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 16th)

It was a mixed bag of results on Monday with the picks going 2-2, but hopefully it will be a little more productive moving forward as some of the Second Round matches begin today as well as completion of the First Round.

The news surrounding Novak Djokovic is that he will announce whether is playing on Tuesday too and I wouldn't be surprised if the World Number 1 decides to rest until the Madrid Masters at the beginning of May.

Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Pablo Andujar: I know Philipp Kohlschreiber has only been back for a short period since suffering an injury in the Davis Cup, but the German has already snapped his 4 match losing run on the Tour and I think he can be a little too tough for Pablo Andujar in this match.

Kohlschreiber has shown in the past that he is more than capable of performing on the clay courts and I think his serve is the more effective of the two players and that should lead to Andujar offering more chances to have his serve broken.

Andujar is also off a tough three set win over Jeremy Chardy just yesterday and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if mental and physical tiredness takes over the Spaniard's play. While Andujar also enjoyed success on the clay last season, I think Kohlschreiber will just be a little too strong and come through with a 6-3, 7-5 win.

Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Jesse Huta Galung: Jurgen Melzer is certainly not the player of old and throws in far too many erratic matches these days to trust with any real certainty, but I do think he has enough experience and talent to beat Jess Huta Galung.

The Dutchman has qualified for the event so will be aware of the kind of conditions he will be facing in Monte Carlo, although he hasn't had a lot of clay court pedigree to fall back upon if he gets into a bit of bother in this match.

At least Melzer can point to some really significant runs at the French Open in the past, although he did struggle last season to get wins during this European clay court portion of the season. Both have won Challenger tournaments on the hard courts recently, but I like the veteran to have a little too much 'know-how' in this one for Huta Galung.

Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Albert Montanes: A couple of seasons ago, Albert Montanes may have been the value call to knock of Gael Monfils and while the latter is coming off an injury, I still think he will be good enough to level their personal series at 2-2.

Monfils is just 2-4 since the Australian Open and he went 1-1 on the clay courts in Houston last week, although that has seen him arrive here early enough to at least have some sort of feel as to how the courts are playing.

Facing a clay court specialist that has won a couple of matches to reach the First Round proper is a tough prospect for Monfils, but the Frenchman has shown plenty of talent on these slower surfaces in the past and I think he'll have enough belief to get the job done in this one.

The one thing you will have to face are the break points chances that will be created as Monfils can mentally check out of games, and I do think there will be a fair few breaks of serve in the match. I just believe Monfils will find a way to get on the right side of those and book his place in the Second Round.

Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: I barely ever include Alexandr Dolgopolov matches in my picks thread as he had sat in my blacklist book for some time with performances ranging from erratic and a little better than a decent club player to putting in some very impressive wins and looking like someone who belongs in the top 20 in the World Rankings.

The problem for Dolgopolov is that he tends to throw in at least one truly terrible service game and that will be punished by someone as good as Juan Martin Del Potro, especially on his current run of form.

Del Potro also finished with an impressive 17-3 record on the clay courts last season and the extra time he gets on the ball seems to sit very well with the Argentine. It can be tough to get a rhythm off of Dogopolov who has to be the player with the most variation in his shots on the ATP Tour. However, his decision making on which shot to play can be suspect and that is why I think Del Potro will make it 4-0 in the personal head to head.

The slower court should give Del Potro to come away with a 6-3, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2. - 0.68 Units (8 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)

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