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Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (April 24th)

There may be a lot of tennis matches going on around the various tournaments across the World on this Wednesday, but that doesn't mean I have found a lot of decent shots.

I find there are a lot of question marks around some of the players, but not enough that I like their opponents either, while some of the pick 'em contests really have only enough room for a cigarette paper could just about be placed between the players.

The layers have been a touch lazy at the moment so the full markets for the Barcelona matches have not been priced up, so any picks from that tournament will be added in the morning.

Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Tobias Kamke: I know how badly Victor Troicki has been playing this season so far, but I still think he should be a heavier favourite to see of Tobias Kamke, a player that struggles at this level and one who is hardly pulling up trees himself.

Troicki will also have picked up some confidence from a win over Marinko Matosevic in the First Round here in Bucharest and he has shown some form on the clay courts in the past, even if the last twelve months have been tough work for him. 

He served well in the First Round and if he can bring that in to this match, I would like his chances to outbreak Kamke in the match. While Kamke is getting more accustomed to playing in Main Tour events, I think he looks like a player that would favour the faster surfaces as some of his unforced error making tendencies can be hidden behind some big winners.

Kamke doesn't have that luxury on the clay and losing to Troicki on the hard courts earlier this season may not give the German enough to keep tabs with him here either.

Marcel Granollers - 3.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: This might be his hometown, but Marcel Granollers has never really performed in Barcelona, although he couldn't have asked for a better match in this Second Round than the one he has.

If Granollers wins, it will be his best result in Barcelona, which is a surprise considering the clay courts should be to his liking. His opponent, Blaz Kavcic, has won a match here already but has spent a lot of time losing in recent weeks on the Tour, while he finished with a poor 2-8 record on the clay courts last season.

I don't particularly trust Granollers as he can fade and start producing error after error, but I think he has enough experience of the clay courts to see of Kavcic in this match.

Benoit Paire v Pablo Andujar: This has been set as a pick 'em contest and it is hard to separate the two players, although I do believe there is more upside in the Benoit Paire game and I think he should be the slightly stronger favourite.

While Pablo Andujar has had success almost solely on the clay courts in his career, it would be foolish to write off someone with Paire's own ability on the surface. I also think he has the slightly better serve which will offer up a few more free points than his opponent and the belief will also be behind Paire having won both previous matches over the last twelve months.

This match does have all the features of what could be a three setter, but I like the Frenchman to come out on top and move through to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcel Granollers - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-2, + 2.90 Units (12 Units Staked, + 24.17% Yield)

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