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Wednesday, 17 April 2013

Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 17th)

That was one of the worst days I have had this season as every pick decided to kill themselves before things could even get started.

I don't think I can ever remember a time when three of the four picks all lost the first set either 6-1 or 6-2, putting the chances of a cover almost out of reach straight away. It was a real surprise, especially the scores in the Jurgen Melzer and the Gael Monfils matches. The latter failed to even come through and win his match against Albert Montanes, but all in all it was a terrible day.

I can't be overly disheartened about that though as it has been a very good couple of months since the Australian Open ended and one of these days was always going to happen at some point or another. Hopefully that can be changed as the rest of the week goes on.

Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: Nicolas Almagro and Jurgen Melzer both came through in three sets in the First Round, but I do think the Spaniard is going to have too much in his locker in this clash.

I just think Almagro is a lot more solid behind his own serve and will definitely get chances on the Melzer serve and that will prove to be the difference between the players. Melzer is still good enough to string together periods of winners, but his consistency over the course of a best of three or best of five set match is definitely not at the level of a couple of years ago.

The one thing to consider though is that Melzer should have a lot of confidence from a recent tournament win and then a successful Masters appearance in Miami. He has also won a lot of matches having gone a set behind so confidence shouldn't be an issue. However, saying all that, I think Almagro is the better clay court player at this stage of their careers and I do think he can come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win.

Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: Albert Montanes has come through qualifying and also rallied in the First Round against Gael Monfils to book his place in this Second Round match, but I think he may struggle to stay with Stanislas Wawrinka in this one.

Wawrinka was a little sloppy in losing in the Semi Final last week in Casablanca, but he has got the clay courts underneath is feet now so I am expecting a much more solid performance than Monfils seemingly gave yesterday. I know Montanes is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces, but I am not convinced he is still able to perform at the level needed to take it to the better players, despite the win yesterday.

Even though Wawrinka is not a top 10 player, he is still very comfortable on the clay courts and I think he will be too consistent for Montanes, although I am expecting a few breaks of serve both ways.

However, when it is all said and done, I would expect the Swiss Number 2 to come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.

Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: With this being the first tournament on the clay courts for most players, we have seen a lot of surprise scores in sets with a number of the top players struggling early on.

That could be the case for Andy Murray in his first match here in Monte Carlo, but I think he will still be good enough to win this one going away at the end of the day. His opponent isn't one of the dangerous lower Ranked players that is completely comfortable on the clay themselves and while Edouard Roger-Vasselin has won three matches this week and also played in a clay tournament last week, I think it is asking a lot of him against the World Number 2.

I don't think it is wise to under-estimate Roger-Vasselin either as he did push Nicolas Almagro (twice) and Juan Martin Del Potro on the clay courts last season. However, I don't think either of those players are as good at returning serve as Andy Murray and that could be the difference at the cover in this one.

As long as Murray serves half-decent, I think he will win 7-5, 6-2.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.68 Units (16 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

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