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Monday, 29 April 2013

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 29-May 5)

We are now less than a month away from the French Open so this week is the last one where the main players on both Tours decide to take off. After this, both Tours head to Madrid and Rome for the big tournaments at Masters and Premier level and then there will be just the eight days until the French Open will begin.

This week we have a joint tournament taking place in Portugal and another ATP event in Munich.

ATP Portugal Open
The Number 1 seed in at this tournament is David Ferrer and it is hard to look beyond the World Number 4 in the field that has come together for the Portugal Open this season. He was surprisingly beaten in his first match at the Barcelona Open last week against Dmitry Tursunov, but David Ferrer is certainly very capable of running some form together as proven by his title win in Buenos Aires earlier this season.

The draw seems to be kind to Ferrer here as he receives a bye in the First Round thanks to being one of the top four seeds here in Portugal and I don't think he will be too worried by any of the names in the top half.

The biggest danger may just be Tommy Robredo in the top half of the draw, but Ferrer has been too good for his veteran compatriot over the last twelve months and I would back the World Number 4 to be too battle hardened and consistent for Robredo.

I am not surprised that Stanislas Wawrinka is considered the second favourite, but Ferrer has a solid head to head record against him and I would back the Spaniard in that one. Other names in the bottom half like Fabio Fognini and Horacio Zeballos have had success on the clay courts, but neither would feel they have a favourable match up with Ferrer the Number 1 seed has to be the pick at odds against in this field.

ATP Munich
One of the more open tournaments in recent times takes place in Munich and it says a lot that the field is priced at 5.50 or better. There are plenty of big names in the draw and I have a feeling that backing a home favourite to come through the draw may pay dividends this week.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won this event twice already in his career, including last season, and he has reached at least the Quarter Final in five of his last six appearances here. The German is in the better half of the draw here and receives a bye in the First Round which may give him enough of an edge to come through the top half.

His main rivals are Mikhail Youzhny and Janko Tipsarevic, but there are some doubts about the chances of both of those players and Kohlschreiber looks the most likely to take advantage of those doubts.

The bottom half of the draw looks a lot more loaded with the likes of Ernests Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic all involved in the section. Cilic has enjoyed a lot of success in the tournament without quite winning it, but this is a really tough half of the draw and I think taking Kohlschreiber each way is the best way to be involved in this tournament.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 8.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)

Daily Picks10-5, + 8.18 Units (28 Units Staked, + 29.21% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013+ 41.28 Units (517 Units Staked, + 7.98% Yield)

Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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