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Friday, 19 April 2013

Tennis Picks Monte Carlo 2013 (April 19th)

This has been my toughest week of the season so far as a lot of the bigger name players have struggled in their first tournaments on the clay courts. Some of the results have been surprising, while the performances, or lack thereof, have been disappointing.

Now we have reached the Quarter Final here in Monte Carlo as the first major clay court tournament gets down to the business end of things.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Stanislas Wawrinka: I am not surprised that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been set as the underdog in this match, but I think he can make the odds pay and pull out the victory in front of a crowd that should be more behind him than Stanislas Wawrinka.

There is no doubt that the clay courts are the weakest of the surfaces for Tsonga, but he has put in some solid performances on the surface and I think he is capable of doing the same against Wawrinka, a player that has had had two close matches with Tsonga on this surface in the past.

Both of those came at the French Open in each of the last two seasons, both went to five sets and both players have one win each. The statistics from both matches shows how evenly these players are matched, but I think Wawrinka's level has to drop form the performance that ousted Andy Murray so comfortably on Thursday.

While Wawrinka has a lot more clay court matches under his belt this season, I can't help but think he is over-rated here because he beat Murray and I like Tsonga to come through, even if it takes three sets.

Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Both of these players had impressive wins in the Third Round against the likes of Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych, but I think it will be Richard Gasquet that is taking part in the Semi Final on Saturday.

There are some similarities with the way both of these players go about their business, but I think Gasquet is slightly stronger off the ground, while Fabio Fognini is the better mover. Fognini was perhaps a little fortunate to beat Andreas Seppi in the First Round when he recovered from a set down and also being 4-3 down in the second set, and I think he is coming up against a player that feels more comfortable within his own mind.

Gasquet has surrounded himself with a good team and it is clear that he is feeling confident and has that little bit of arrogance that he deserves to be playing in amongst the top ten players in the World. He also has had a lot of success against Fognini in their two previous meetings, although the courts he will give the Italian more chances in this one.

However, at the end of the day, I would expect Gasquet to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win from this match.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.20 Stan James (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-9, - 10.12 Units (28 Units Staked, - 36.14% Yield)

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