Weekend Football Picks (November 17-19)

November has sucked for my football picks, but it isn't the end of the world with a couple of weeks left this month and it has been a very successful season which covers the small backward steps I have taken.

Below are my picks from the weekend Premier League games:

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The North London derby has produced some high-scoring games in recent seasons and the way that both of these sides have defended in recent weeks suggests this should be another one for viewers to enjoy on Saturday lunchtime.

While Tottenham haven't won too many games recently, their away form in the Premier League has to be respected and they had been scoring freely before being held to just the one goal in their loss at Manchester City last weekend.

However, I think Spurs can take advantage of the vulnerabilities in the Arsenal backline that has seen them concede at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 games, while teams like Manchester United and Schalke could have scored far more than they managed in their games against the Gunners.

Spurs have scored at least 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 visits to the Emirates Stadium and they had scored at least 2 goals in Premier League visits to the Majedski Stadium, Old Trafford and St Mary's so are capable of doing the same here if Andre Villas-Boas can hold back his defensive tendencies that have taken over at times.


Manchester City v Aston Villa Pick: Even at 2-0 down last weekend, I still thought United could come back and beat Aston Villa at Villa Park and that should tell you what you need to know about what I think of this young side that has a lot of pressure on their shoulders.

I appreciate Villa have won at the Etihad Stadium this season in the Capital One Cup, but I think the Manchester City win over Spurs last weekend will have given them some momentum to carry into this game.

If City hadn't been virtually knocked out of the Champions League, the game against Real Madrid next Wednesday would be seen as a real distraction, but I think their position means that game has significantly less pressure on them now. I expect they can ride the momentum from last week and win this one with some room to spare.


Newcastle United v Swansea Pick: Newcastle United lost 0-1 at home to West Ham United last week and their inconsistencies this season were shown up again as a lackluster display saw them fail to get anything from the game.

Swansea are another team that has struggled on their travels and they were fortunate to get a draw against Southampton last weekend when being outplayed for large periods and that is why I think they will lose here.

The injury list for the home side is a major concern, but they have three forwards that should pose Swansea plenty of problems and I'll back them for a second week in a row and hope they can bounce back in a positive manner.


West Brom v Chelsea Pick: Manchester City may not have a 'massive' Champions League game to look forward to, but Chelsea certainly do as a defeat in Turin against Juventus would mean the Italians and Shakhtar Donetsk would be in a very powerful position in the Group and Chelsea could be knocked out at the first hurdle when trying to defend their Champions League title.

That's not the only factor that will make this a difficult game, but the fact that a number of players will be returning from international duty means preparation for the game is not at the best level it could be.

Add to the fact that West Brom have been very, very good at the The Hawthornes this season and everything is pointing to Chelsea being far too short and the home side should be able to get a result in the game.

Only Manchester City have won at this ground in the League, but even that was with the final kick of the game and West Brom could easily have won that game too, while the Baggies beat Chelsea last season to remove the mental baggage that comes with 5 straight defeats to Chelsea prior to that win.

I am surprised that you can pick up West Brom to avoid defeat at a little under odds against and that looks to be the call.


Norwich City v Manchester United Pick: Last weekend, I mentioned the fact that United just seem incapable of keeping clean sheets at the moment, but they have the attacking firepower to deal with most of the Premier League teams (although I remain convinced that this will be highlighted by teams in the Champions League once the Group Stage is completed).

That could be the case again this weekend as they face a Norwich City side that have been playing much better in recent weeks and have beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur here.

Grant Holt should cause as many problems as Christian Bentenke did at times last week and it just seems United are making a few mistakes in defensive areas to expect a clean sheet this week.

It took a late Ryan Giggs goal to win the game for United last season here, but hopefully that won't be the case this time and it will be a little easier for the away side- however, I can't imagine them keeping a clean sheet, so it is likely another nervy, but entertaining game, is in the offing.


West Ham United v Stoke City Pick: Both of these teams have likely circled this as a game that they can pick up points from, but I just think the home side will be a little more motivated to grab them in front of their own supporters, especially considering they follow this one with a run of games against Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool.

Stoke have been one of these sides that struggle away from home because of a lack of goals, but they did perform well at Old Trafford in a recent away game and are clearly capable.

Both of these sides have a similar philosophy when it comes to style, but I think the game being played at Upton Park makes the difference. West Ham have won 3 of their last 4 home games against Stoke City in the League and they look worth a small interest at odds against.


MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Newcastle United @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Brom + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)



November Update: 3-9, - 5.60 Units (17 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)

October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)