Wow, I can't believe how quickly the week has come through. I will be fleshing out this thread in the next couple of days, but for now, these are my Thanksgiving Day Picks.
EDIT: Will have to wait to have a more fleshed out thread as just been too hungover/busy/going to see United since Thursday so it'll only be the picks for the games again this week.
Have a great Thanksgiving if you're celebrating it.
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Pick: I like the Houston Texans in this game for the following reasons:
First, Detroit are off back to back emotional Divisional losses and they could easily be a little down in this one.
Second, the Lions have notoriously struggled on Thanksgiving Day, losing their last 8 against the spread.
Third, I think the Detroit Offense has just been too banged up and I believe the Texans Defense will play much better than they did against Jacksonville on Sunday.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Picks: I'll back the Washington Redskins to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, Dallas are so up and down as a team and have struggled as the home favourite, going 3-14 against the spread in that situation.
Second, they have been even worse as a home favourite against NFC East teams, going 4-15 in that spot over the last few seasons. Washington are also 12-3 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional contests.
Third, I think RG3 has a huge game coming back to Texas and I think the Dallas Secondary has just slipped a little bit of late so I expect he can make enough big plays with the spread over a field goal in difference.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: I'll back New England to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think they will be play up and hard with the loss of Rob Gronkowski and the Jets Defense has really struggled at the moment.
Second, Mark Sanchez had a decent outing against the St Louis Rams but I don't trust him to have back to back strong games and that could be the difference.
Third, the Patriots are 14-6 against the spread as the road favourite against AFC East teams over the last few seasons.
Four, I think Aqib Talib does make the Patriots a better Defense and he should help in shutting down this Jets Offense that makes too many mistakes with dropped balls and bad decisions from the Quarter Back.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Steelers in this contest to grab an important win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers have dominated this recent series, winning 21 of 23, and they will also be focused despite this game being the meat in a Baltimore sandwich.
Second, I expect the Pittsburgh Defense to step up again this week (remember they only allowed Baltimore to 6 Offensive points) and I think they will be able to create one big turnover that wins the game for them.
Third, very few rookie Quarter Backs get the better of Dick LeBeau who is 17-1 straight up against them.
Fourth, Cleveland are just 2-9 against the spread over the last 3 seasons when set as an underdog of less than 3 points.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I like the road favourite to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, road favourites have a very high percentage of covering games when they are off a bye.
Second, the Jaguars lost a heartbreaker to the Houston Texans last week and while this is a Divisional game, they could still be flat with nothing really going except playing out the string this season.
Third, the Titans have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Jacksonville and the Jaguars have really played badly at home all season.
Fourth, Jacksonville are 3-10 against the spread as the home underdog this season and have already lost to both Divisional rivals here while failing to cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Another road team I will be backing is the Denver Broncos and I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Denver have Peyton Manning... Kansas City start Brady Quinn.
Second, the Broncos have also won 2 of their last 3 visits to Arrowhead and will not take the game lightly as it is a Divisional game and Denver can still force their way into one of the top two seeds in the AFC with the way the schedule has gone down.
Third, the Chiefs just don't protect the ball and a couple of turnovers should allow Manning and this Offense to pull away and earn the cover.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I'll take the momentum and pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, I think the Buccaneers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and they will have been given a real boost by their come from behind win over Carolina last week. That momentum and the home field advantage could be huge.
Second, this is an important game for the Falcons as it is a Divisional game, but I am still not convinced that they are not looking ahead to their Thursday night tussle with the New Orleans Saints.
Third, the Buccaneers knocked off the Falcons here last season to snap a 2 game home losing run in the series and that should bolster their confidence.
St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I'll back the road underdog to pull the upset, but I'll take the small number of points to be on the safe side. I like St Louis for the following reasons:
First, Arizona have been on a long losing run and they are starting a rookie Quarter Back behind an Offensive Line that blows. Rian Lindley struggled last week and I expect Chris Long and Robert Quinn make it tough for him this week.
Second, St Louis haven't been playing well at all in recent weeks, but they have shown some signs of being able to move the chains and I expect Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson to do enough to score enough points to win the game.
Third, the Cardinals shouldn't be favoured over any team right now and they are 1-6-2 against the spread as a home favourite over the last three seasons.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers Pick: I'll take the San Diego Chargers in this spot for the following reasons:
First, this game doesn't mean as much to Baltimore as it does to San Diego as the Ravens are much more likely to be looking ahead to the second clash with Pittsburgh in 3 weeks, a game they can win and basically wrap up the AFC North.
Second, Baltimore are 2-10 against the spread when playing on the West Coast, which includes a 20 point loss here last season.
Third, after beating the Steelers twice last season, Baltimore failed to win or cover the spread in their next game. In fact, over the last five seasons, the Ravens are just 3-6 against the spread in their game immediately following one with the Steelers in the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: I'm backing the New Orleans Saints to win this game for the following reasons:
First, New Orleans have been playing a lot more like their old selves in the last few weeks to bring them back in contention in the NFC and I think they are ready to show off what they can do and earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss at Candlestick Park last year.
Second, the Saints should not really be considered a home underdog with Drew Brees as they are 5-0 against the spread in that spot.
Third, I just believe the Saints are playing with a lot of momentum and confidence right now and I just think the revenge angle helps their cause in this one to win the game outright, although expect some swings and turns.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants Pick: I don' think the Green Bay Packers should be an underdog, let alone one by 3 points so I am picking them to cover for the following reasons:
First, actually that above is a pretty good reason- should the Packers really be giving anyone a field goal start with the way they have been playing? Personally, I don't think so.
Second, Eli Manning was not himself in the weeks prior to the bye and he is going to have to have recharged his batteries to keep up with the Packers in what could be a shoot-out.
Third, the Giants are 7-18-1 against the spread as the home favourite... Green Bay are 17-6-1 against the spread as the road underdog including that shelling of Houston earlier this season.
Fourth, this looks a shoot out and I favour Rodgers over Manning in that sense.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
St Louis + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (3 Units)
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