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Tuesday 20 November 2012

Midweek Football Picks (November 20-22)

It's back to the Champions League and European football this week as we get set to enter a busy two months in England with a heavy run of fixtures around the festive period.

Remember to keep an eye on team news ahead of these games as some teams have qualified and others are already out of the competitions so resting players in not against the norm at this stage.


Galatasaray v Manchester United Pick: I find it horrible to back against my team and usually steer clear of doing so... Unless it is a Capital One Cup game or a meaningless Champions League game like we have on Tuesday evening.

Sir Alex Ferguson has taken a youthful looking squad to Turkey and that is not the easiest place to get some experience as Galatasaray have been very tough to play out there in front of their passionate fans.

After seeing the amount of chances Galatasaray created against a stronger United team at Old Trafford, I have little doubt they will be able to do the same in this one, but I also think the home side have shown some vulnerabilities in the Champions League this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet.

The layers know United have a weaker squad out here, and they have also priced down the home win simply because Galatasaray 'need' to win... However, I would rather have a small interest in Galatasaray winning with a few goals scored in the game as I doubt they keep a clean sheet.


BATE Borisov v Lille Pick: Talking about skeleton squads, Lille have taken a very young squad to Belarus to face a BATE Borisov side that has played well in the Champions League and already thumped the French side on their travels and beaten Bayern Munich here.

BATE should be on the front foot for much of this game and the inexperience in the away side may make all the difference.

I expect Lille to make an effort to get off the pointless track, but BATE should be too strong when it is all said and done.


Juventus v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea have really hit the wall in recent weeks and I think they are going to have another tough day in the office and could be faced with the prospect of being knocked out of the Champions League at the Group Stage.

Juventus should be on the front foot in this game and they look capable of exposing a Chelsea back line that is missing John Terry and one that has struggled for clean sheets. The Blues have conceded at least 2 goals against the likes of Manchester United (twice), Shakhtar Donetsk (twice) and West Brom in recent games and you have to favour Juventus to grab the win here.

However, Chelsea should be able to get on the scoreboard themselves in this game as they have players that will certainly help create chances. My issue is that they are too open at the back and could be picked off by a Juventus team that could have beaten them at Stamford Bridge and clearly can create chances against this defence.

We should see goals in this game so a small interest in Juventus winning a high-scoring game looks the call.


Valencia v Bayern Munich Pick: Two teams in very good form meet each other in a game that could determine the winner of this Group and a chance to avoid some of the bigger names in the last 16.

Valencia have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions, while Bayern Munich have only lost 1 of their last 9 away games. The German side will be very happy avoiding defeat in this one as that would mean a win over BATE at home would win them them the Group.

A draw actually would suit Bayern down to the ground in this one and I think Valencia would be happy too as that would secure their place in the last 16.


Arsenal v Montpellier Pick: Arsenal look remarkably short considering their recent struggles in both the Premier League and the Champions League, but Montpellier have been a little exposed in the competition as they are inexperienced and struggling to reach the heights of last season when they won the French domestic League.

I think Arsenal probably win, but the best way to get on seems to be Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to win which is offered at 3.00 by Ladbrokes.

The home side have earned just 1 clean sheet in their last 14 games in all competitions and look vulnerable, something that Montpellier could expose as a team that has scored in every away game they have played this season, including at Schalke and Olympiacos in this competition.

Arsenal have also had 3 clean sheets in their last 10 Champions League home games and this looks a spot of value considering they have won 8 of those games.


Manchester City v Real Madrid Pick: This looks like a game that may continue from where they left off in Madrid as both teams will be pushing forward to win the game.

Manchester City have to win and hope Ajax beat Borussia Dortmund to give themselves a small chance of progressing from the Group, while Real Madrid come here with less pressure as they can afford to lose as long as they beat Ajax at home in their final Group game. However, Jose Mourinho will still harbour ambitions of finishing top of the section and he has to see his side earn 2 more points than Dortmund if they are to do so and that means they cannot sit back and wait for things to happen either.

Both defences have shown vulnerabilities in the competition, while both attacks are definitely clever enough and have enough pace and creativity to cause problems.

The over 2.5 goals has been priced down accordingly, but I still think taking the odds against quote for over 3.5 goals may be the way to go.


MY PICKS: BATE Borisov @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Galatasaray Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Juventus Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Valencia-Bayern Munich Draw @ 3.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)



November Update6-12, - 3.75 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.4% Yield)

October Final9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

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