It's been a remarkably poor season for my NCAA College Football Picks and it really has been a big disappointment for me.
Last season was very successful, so it is balancing it out into a small profit over the last two years, but I expect much more from the picks.
Some of it has been bad luck... Some of it has been terrible picking, but it all adds up to the same thing and I'll be hoping for some sort of comeback over the last couple of months left this season.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: I am taking the road underdog to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, these teams have both been very good against the spread this season, but I just think Rutgers can make more big plays on the Defensive side of the ball and that could keep them close throughout.
Second, Rutgers are 4-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last 18 months.
Third, the underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games in this series.
Memphis Tigers @ UAB Blazers Pick: I'll be backing the UAB Blazers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, UAB have just picked up a bit of momentum with back to back wins and I like their chances to make it three in a row despite Memphis snapping a 4 game losing run last time out.
Second, I have more faith in the Blazers Offense and like their match up more than I like the Memphis Tigers doing the same.
Third, UAB have won 3 in a row in the series and they are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 in the series.
East Michigan Eagles @ West Michigan Broncos Pick: Neither of these teams have been playing well of late, but I'll take the West Michigan Broncos to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Broncos were beaten last season so they will be in a revenge spot and West Michigan had on the previous 3 games in the series by at least 15 points per game.
Second, the Broncos Offense matches up better against the Eagles Defense than when the other two units are on the field in my opinion.
Third, West Michigan are 7-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season. East Michigan are 1-4 against the spread as the road underdog this season.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: I am going to back the home team to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Nebraska should be fully focused with the Big Ten Legends Division still within their grasp and they are the better team.
Second, the Cornhuskers bashed Minnesota on the road last season and they have been incredibly strong at home this season, going 4-1-1 against the spread as the home team this season.
Third, Minnesota were comfortably beaten when facing the best of the Big Ten teams this season, losing by at least 22 points to both Michigan and Wisconsin and I think Nebraska can reach the same margin in this one.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Second, Oklahoma State are 8-3 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season.
Third, Texas Tech just seemed to be off the pace since their beating from Kansas State and Tommy Tuberville is suspended so they'll be missing their Head Coach for this one.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ South Alabama Jaguars Pick: I'll be backing the Middle Tennessee State team to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Middle Tennessee have certainly enjoyed the team bonding when going on the road this season as they are 4-1 straight up and against the spread in those games so far and should be motivated with the Sun Belt Championship still within their grasp.
Second, South Alabama are a school that has faced this level of opposition for the first time and they may just be feeling the tiredness after a long season.
Third, South Alabama have lost all 5 home games against the spread so far this season.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Illionois Fighting Illini Pick: I'll back the Purdue Boilermakers to cover the spread against a poor Illinois team for the following reasons:
First, Illinois have been blown out in 7 straight games and have looked like a team that is looking forward to the end of the season and they are also 0-7 against the spread in those games.
Second, Purdue can at least point to a 3-1 record against the spread in their 4 road games this season.
Third, the Boilermakers are 6-1 in the last 7 games of this series.
Oklahoma Sooners @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I'll back the Sooners to win this high-scoring game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, West Virginia have just struggled in the last few games as they get used to playing the higher level competition in the Big 12 than they were used to in the Big East. They have lost their last 4 games and they are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games.
Second, the Sooners will be in a big revenge spot as they were beaten in the Fiesta Bowl by West Virginia in 2008 and this is still an important game for Oklahoma as they look to finish in 2nd in the Big 12.
Third, West Virginia are just 3-8 against the spread in their home games since the beginning of last season.
Arizona Wildcats @ Utah Utes Pick: I am taking the Utah Utes to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Utah have won the last 3 games in the series, including a 13 point win on the road last season.
Second, the Utes have a 4-1 record at home this season and Arizona have lost every game on the road so far in 2012.
Third, the Utes have the better Defense and that could make all the difference in what figures to be a close game.
California Golden Bears @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: I'll take the home team to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Beavers have won their last 2 home games against California and they have covered the spread in each of those wins.
Second, the Golden Bears have just hit the wall as far as this season has gone with 4 straight defeats and 4 losses against the spread and only one of those losses has come by less than 18 points.
Third, I think the match ups favour Oregon State on both the Defensive and Offensive sides of the ball and I just think they can break Golden Bears hearts and run away with this game when it is all said and done.
MY PICKS: Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
UAB Blazers - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Michigan Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 20 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders - 7 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Utah Utes @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oregon State Bears - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Week 11: 5-4, + 0.71 Units
Week 10: 1-3, - 2 Units
Week 9: 1-2, - 1.08 Units
Week 8: 3-3, - 0.21 Units
Week 7: 2-4-1, - 2.03 Units
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units
Week 5: 4-6, - 2.18 Units
Week 4: 3-8, - 5.10 Units
Week 3: 5-5, + 0.15 Units
Week 2: 4-4, + 0 Units
Week 1: 2-4, - 2.10 Units
Season 2012: 33-45-1, - 13.02 Units
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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