And just like that, we come to the end of the 2012 ATP tennis season!
It just seems to be that it was only yesterday that Andy Murray was winning his first Grand Slam of his career at the US Open, but that is almost 2 months ago now.
I usually shut down my picks after the US Open and wait until this tournament as there seems to be too much disinterest from the leading players and it's almost like you are second guessing yourself to try and figure out motivations of the top players.
That 'lack of motivation' and players resting little injuries means the tournaments in Shanghai and particularly Paris, two Masters events, are heavily affected by withdrawals and there are real suggestions that the Calender will be revamped.
Paris really struggled last week as Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were out before the tournament started, while both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray exited the tournament early and it was no surprise really that the organisers are discussing a way of bringing this tournament to early in the season, maybe even opening the indoor tournaments in early February/March just ahead of the events at Indian Wells and Miami.
Back to focusing on this tournament: With Rafael Nadal out for the season (as I predicted way back before the London Olympics), it means Janko Tipsarevic was able to sneak into the event although he was forced into retirement last week as he was suffering from 'fatigue'.
The two groups have been drawn and both have some really interesting match ups, but I am not sure how many surprises we will see at the Semi Final stage.
The form player is Andy Murray as far as I am concerned as he has reached match points in his last three defeats since winning the US Open and should really have added the Shanghai Masters to his title list this season when falling short against Novak Djokovic in the Final of that event.
Speaking about Djokovic, the Serb is going to finish World Number 1 regardless of what happens at this tournament and he has also been placed in the same Group as Murray. His fans would argue that he is the man to beat as he won back to back tournaments following the loss in the US Open Final before his early defeat in Paris.
Both of these players will feel confident of progressing from this Group although it is made up by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych.
Tsonga is going to be working with Roger Rasheed going forward as he finally decided he does need a Coach if he is going to progress through to the next level and he may not see the best of that partnership until the New Year. Tsonga has a poor recent record against both Murray and Djokovic, although the conditions should favour his game with the big serve and heavy groundstrokes being able to fly through the court. However, he has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks and may not have the energy against the other 3 tough players he will face.
Berdych has played well with a tournament win at Stockholm under his belt since the US Open, but he has mentally struggled against both Djokovic and Murray and I just think that is what will give the big two players in this Group the chance to progress.
The second Group doesn't have as many of the names, but don't expect David Ferrer to make it easy for either Roger Federer or Juan Martin Del Potro in this section.
Janko Tipsarevic is a good player, but he is just 1-11 against the other 3 players in the Group and I think another long, but successful season, will be too much to overcome and I don't see him winning any of his 3 matches and thus won't qualify.
Roger Federer clearly enjoys playing indoors the most at the moment and has a 14-0 record against Ferrer and has been a little too good for Del Potro for the most part this season (did lose his last match against the Argentine in Basel no less).
The key match as far as qualification goes is the David Ferrer-Juan Martin Del Potro match and it will be interesting to see how Ferrer will respond to the amount of tennis he has played recently. The Spaniard has won tournaments in Valencia and Paris in back to back weeks and he has been too good for Del Potro this season so I do think he may surprise and finish in the position behind Federer in this one.
I expect both the players from Group A to be able to win their Semi Finals as I think there is a real chance that Andy Murray is the player that will meet Roger Federer and there is no doubt that the British Number 1 has found a chink in the armoury of the Swiss man's serve.
Picking a winner at this event can be tough, and this tournament looks more open than previous editions if I am honest, but I do think Murray is the man to follow.
He had to retire from the event last season after just one match in the Group and I think he will be fully motivated to put a big performance in front of the home support he will receive.
It will also be a big marker for him to show the rest of the field that he is hungry to add to his maiden Grand Slam win at the next tournament in Australia which is a around 9-10 weeks away and he looks the best pick here at 3.60 being offered at BoyleSports.
I don't want to disrespect Roger Federer who loves playing indoors and has a stellar record at the End of Year Championships, but he has played a lot of tennis in the last year and he definitely has to go back to the drawing board if he faces Murray and that is why I am holding off.
Day 1 Picks
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Before this season, Tomas Berdych had a solid record against Andy Murray, but the British Number 1 is beginning to find it a little more comfortable going up against the big serving Czech player.
Murray has been returning serve exceptionally in his recent matches and I think that is what will make the difference for him in this opening match.
As I said above, Murray also has to make up for his retirement last season at this event and I think he comes out with a big performance in this one.
Berdych did reach the Semi Final here last season and is clearly a very solid indoor player with the attributes he has, but I think his big weapon, the serve, may just get nullified and Murray winning 7-6, 6-3 will do for me here.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Novak Djokovic Over 21.5 Games: There is every chance one of the first two sets is going to run into a tie-break as both of these players are capable of being very effective behind serve.
I also think this is the one match up that Tsonga really likes against the players in the top 4 in the World Rankings and that should see him at least play the game tough throughout and not lose heart even if he falls behind a set.
Djokovic has won 5 sets in a row against Tsonga, but I'll be looking for the Frenchman to hopefully break that streak and perhaps even force this into 3 sets.
MY OUTRIGHT PICK: Andy Murray @ 3.60 BoyleSports (1 Unit)
DAY 1 PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Novak Djokovic Over 21.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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