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Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Midweek Football Picks (November 6-8)

It was a terrible start to the month for me on Saturday, but hopefully the next couple of days will see fortunes turned around somewhat.

My picks for the upcoming games in the Champions League and Europa League match day 4 will be found in this thread:

Schalke v Arsenal Pick: Both of these sides have had a couple of issues defensively and you have to believe that will be exploited tonight, although picking a winner from the contest is not as straight-forward as the layers may think.

Schalke have been strong at home in recent weeks, but they did fail to beat Montpellier in the Group Stage of this competition and are facing an Arsenal side that have found a little steel in their away performances in Europe since the beginning of last season.

However, Arsenal will have to produce a lot more than they did at Old Trafford on Saturday as they were outclassed from start to finish and could have been beaten by a lot more than the one goal margin indicated.

If they defend they way they did at Old Trafford, Schalke may not be as generous as Manchester United and it could be another long day in the office for the away side. However, I would rather just back the over 2.5 goals option in this one as it looks a much safer proposition than the home win.

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Real Madrid were stunned in Germany a couple of weeks ago, but that should focus them a little more to get a bit of revenge on Borussia Dortmund and virtually assure themselves a place in the last 16.

I have been impressed with the way Dortmund have played in the Champions League so far and any team that wins back to back Bundesliga titles has to be respected.

However, I think they may be a little over-rated here after their draw at Manchester City, especially considering they were beaten at Marseille and Olympiacos on their travels last season in this competition and Real Madrid have been scoring goals for fun in recent games.

They have won 10 of their last 13 home games in the Champions League by at least 2 goals and I think they will add Dortmund to that list in this one.

Manchester City v Ajax Pick: Roberto Mancini is clearly feeling the pressure from above as he lost his cool somewhat in the press conference ahead of this match, but the rumour persists that he will be out of a job in City do not proceed to the last 16 with the likes of Pep Guardiola out of a job at the moment and friends with Txiki Begiristain who was appointed at Eastlands last month.

Essentially this is is a must win game for City, but the layers are aware of that and know that people will want to back them at any price and that is disrespectful to an Ajax side that outplayed them in Amsterdam and have also won at Old Trafford in this calender year.

Injuries are hurting the City squad, but they have enough good players to think they can earn a result in this one, but I am expecting it to be tight and tense throughout and they may have to settle for a close win, something that Mancini would surely snap up right now.

MY PICKS: Schalke-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.38 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City win by one goal @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

November Update: 1-3, - 0.20 Units (5 Units Staked, - 0.4% Yield)

October Final9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

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