NFL Week 10 Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I am going to have a small interest in the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover the spread in the Thursday night game for the following reasons:

First, I know there is a lot of hype, rightly for the most part, around Andrew Luck, but his touchdown-interception ratio is 2:6 on the road compared with 8:2 at home.

Second, are the Indianapolis Colts really playing that well to be favoured by more than a field goal on the road? They are facing a different pressure having won the last two games as the underdog.

Third, I know the Jaguars stunk for most of the game against the Lions last weekend, but I would not all be surprised if a team with one win was looking ahead to a Divisional game at home where they can put a dent in the Colts Play Off chances.

Fourth, the Jags beat the Colts on the road earlier this season meaning they have improved to 4-1 in the last 5 games in the series.


Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I am going to back to Oakland Raiders to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:

First, this is a horrible spot for the Ravens as they are between Divisional contests and could easily be looking ahead to the huge game with Pittsburgh next week.

Second, the Ravens are only 3-4 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Divisional teams and added to the poor spot, it makes the Oakland team more appealing.

Third, the Raiders are 8-4 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of last season.


Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was going to be a no-pick game for me, but I have changed my mind and will have a small interest on Denver Broncos covering the spread:

First, John Fox was fired by the Panthers before last season- I have absolute faith that he is going to get his team fired up to win this one for him despite it being a non-Conference game and San Diego next on slate.

Second, the Broncos are on a bit of a roll at the moment, covering in 4 of their last 5 games, and Carolina have struggled at home for the most part.


Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I am backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, Miami are an awful home favourite, going 9-32 against the spread in that spot over the last ten years.

Second, another factor is Miami have a big Divisional game against Buffalo on Thursday nights and teams have struggled as the favourite ahead of that new game on the schedule this season.

Third, Tennessee were blown out last week, but teams generally respond favourably in that situation in their next game.


Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I like the Lions to cover in this game and put themselves back in the mix for a Wild Card berth in the NFC for the following reasons:

First, Adrian Peterson will have success for the Vikings, but the absence of Percy Harvin is huge for their Offense and Special Teams and puts Christian Ponder in a tough spot.

Second, the Lions have enjoyed their last 2 visits to Minnesota, winning both and they look a team on the rise.

Third, Detroit have covered the spread in 4 straight games and the Offense is finding their feet, making them too strong for the Vikings to keep up.

Fourth, the Vikings are 1-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against Divisional rivals.


San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I am going to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Tampa Bay have been playing really good football over the last couple of weeks and I think  they will want this game 'more' with a gap to Atlanta to make up.

Second, San Diego are in a tough spot as they travel across the country and face Denver on the road in their next game so this could be a 'meaningless' contest for them.

Third, San Diego are 2-5 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons.

Fourth, Tampa aren't a great home favourite, but Vincent Jackson should help the Offense know the nuances of the Defense and I think he'll have a big game against his old club.


Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I'll back the Eagles to cover as the underdog in this one for the following reasons:

First, these two teams are the biggest fools in the NFL- both spend more time making mistakes and killing themselves than losing to the opposition so home field advantage could be critical for Philadelphia.

Second, the Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 games against Dallas.

Third, the Cowboys are not really a great road favourite to be backing, going 3-8-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons.

Fourth, both teams are in a must win spot, both are playing badly, both are making mistakes, so taking the points looks the best option.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I hate laying double-digit points, but I am going to back the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Todd Haley factor can't be underplayed in this one... I have heard the Chiefs might be extra focused against their former Head Coach, but I am thinking he won't play a conservative game plan in this one and will ask his Steelers Offense to take deep shots and put up a lot of points on the Chiefs.

Second, the Chiefs just don't take care of the ball and that isn't good news against a Steelers Defense that will be able to limit the impact of the Kansas City Offense.

Third, the Steelers are just on a bit of a roll right now and will not want to lose momentum ahead of the big clash against Baltimore next Sunday night.


Other Picks: Cincinnati Bengals + 4.5 Points; Buffalo Bills + 13.5 Points; New Orleans Saints + 1 Point; New York Jets + 6.5 Points; San Francisco 49ers - 12 Points; Houston Texans + 1 Point


MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Oakland Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 12.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)