Not quite the final outcome I was looking for yesterday as Fernando Verdasco won a tight first set against Juan Carlos Ferrero, but then proceeded to fall apart and lose in 3 sets.
It has been a strange tournament so far with big surprises, for example Kei Nishikori beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 3 sets, but the big favourites Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are still there and could only have shortened in the outright markets.
We have reached the last 16 now and my picks for Thursday are below:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Rafael Nadal has been in very good form since the US Open and has not dropped off from that bad defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Final and he has plenty of ambitions to reach the Number 1 ranking in the World again.
He should be too strong for Florian Mayer, who surprised me in the last round by beating David Nalbandian, as the German's serve will not give him enough free points and I expect him to be ground down by the Spaniard.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: I am not the biggest fan of backing Alexandr Dolgopolov because he can play so hot and cold at times that he is hard to read. However, he is a player that can build momentum in tournaments and I think he is in line for a big week.
Bernard Tomic has had a big win this week over Mardy Fish so confidence should be high in the young Australian, but he too is a player that has not gained the consistency in his play just yet and I have a feeling this could be after the Lord Mayor's show for him as he tries to build on the win over Fish.
Dolgopolov has taken care of Tomic twice before, both wins coming on the hard courts in Australia, and I think he can complete his hat-trick at a decent price.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters: 1-2, - 2.20 Units
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Hey Dav,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about the Berdych - Lopez match?
I'm leaning towards Berdych but appreciate your thoughts.
Cheers,
Dan
Well, I was thinking about picking Lopez with a 4 game start in the handicap Market, but Berdych has been in fine form of late.
ReplyDeleteThink Berdych should win but odds of 1.33 are a little short for me as I have lost most of my faith in him over the course of the last 12 months!