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Friday, 21 October 2011

NFL Week 7 Picks and Previews

First things first- I really hope I don't come off as someone who whines about missed wagers, simply because luck goes around in circles, but wow was I annoyed with the Miami-New York Jets game on Monday Night Football.

A quick look at the scoreboard suggests the pick was not close to coming in, but watching the game, it was hard to believe that it didn't win.

First off, Darrelle Revis somehow got away with choke-slamming Brandon Marshall on an Interception he then took back 100 yards for a pick 6- it was an infringement so obvious that Jon Gruden was going mad in the commentary booth at the non-call.

That alone should have given the ball to Miami on the Jets 1 yard line with a 3 point lead but instead they were down 4.

Miami also outgained New York by over 150 yards in the first half, yet were somehow down by 8 points and then the huge number of dropped passes and Matt Moore missing open receivers that would have led to TDs was scary and was probably the most frustrating loss of the season so far.

Week 6 Thoughts
1) Carson Palmer traded to Oakland: This was the biggest news of the last week as Oakland traded for the former Cincinnati Bengal and at the same time have made themselves a real contender in the AFC to at least reach the Play Offs.

Palmer is a definite improvement on Kyle Boller and on Jason Campbell (whose injury means he is unlikely to ever play for the Raiders again) and they look like an Offense that should be able to roll.

That is not to say Mike Brown and the Bengals have not had a great day either- they have picked up two 1st Round picks for Palmer and already have the makings of a good team in Ohio.

The biggest question at this moment is whether Carson Palmer still has what it takes to be an effective  QB in the NFL and how long it will take for him to get involved with the Oakland system.

2) Brain dead plays are killing teams and punters alike: I don't know what it is, but there seem to be more dumb moves made by players this season than I recall in recent years, plays that don't need to be made.

The latest to fall foul of this was Pierre Garcon who inexplicably threw the ball as a lateral with his team down by 3 and with around 2 minutes to go. The Cincinnati defender gladly picked up the ball and ran it back for a TD that gave the Bengals the cover against the Colts when Indianapolis were in a position to at least find a way to drag the game to overtime.

It has not just been the players- officials have made a few 'suspect' calls in the first 6 weeks of the season that have essentially decided whether teams cover or not... The Darrelle Revis incident on Monday Night Football essentially helped the Jets cover, while a 'unnecessary roughness' penalty on Denver a couple of weeks ago allowed San Diego to kick a FG to cover a spread (the Denver call was so bad that the officials didn't even call a number to indicate who the foul was against, while the commentators couldn't figure it out either).

3) Tony Sparano should be out of Miami within the next month: I will be very surprised if Tony Sparano is coaching the Dolphins by the time I get to Dallas at the end of next month, as the Miami team just seem short of ideas and don't look like they can buy a win, let alone earn one.

They had everything going for them against the Jets, but killed themselves with dropped catches, while the Defense has been getting little to no pressure.

I say fire Sparano, let Mike Nolan take over for the rest of the season and then give Bill Cowher a call and ask him how he fancies restoring the Dolphins to some semblance of respectability.

4) Jim Harbaugh v Jim Schwartz: This had to be the weirdest incident of the weekend as the two coaches almost got into blows at the end of the San Francisco 49ers win over the previously unbeaten Detroit Lions.

At first I agreed with Schwartz that Harbaugh had been a little over the top with his celebrations, but then an interesting story emerged that the two, along with John Harbaugh of Baltimore, had met for dinner during the lockout where it was suggested by Schwartz that Jim Harbaugh would have 'no chance of winning' in San Francisco with the lockout taking full effect.

Harbaugh bit his tongue on that occasion, but it sounds like this game may just have meant a little more to him after those comments.

The whole game had been a little chippy anyway, with Schwartz shouting at Harbaugh at one point when the 49er Head Coach mistakenly tried to challenge a TD (against the rules now) and it seemed to have culminated with that crazy ending.

4) Rex Ryan v Norv Turner?: After the Harbaugh v Schwartz appetiser, we could possibly some tense moments in the San Diego-New York Jets game this weekend after Rex Ryan was quoted as saying he would have had a 'couple of rings' if he had been given the Chargers job in 2007.

That is a slight on Norv Turner who has obviously not even reached the SuperBowl in that time, but who shot back about Ryan adding those to the 'couple he guaranteed in the last two seasons'... Get ready for the handshake!

Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers (6-0): Say no more...
2) New England Patriots (5-1): How many teams need to learn that you do not give Tom Brady a chance with 2 minutes left on the clock and only down a score?
3) Baltimore Ravens (4-1): Another impressive Defensive effort with just enough Offense to keep rolling.
4) San Francisco 49ers (5-1): Jim Harbaugh is doing an excellent job with this squad.
5) San Diego Chargers (4-1): Almost time for the Chargers to go on their usual run.
6) Detroit Lions (5-1): Still a good team, but the long term absence of Jahvid Best will really hurt them.
7) Oakland Raiders (4-2): Right in the thick of things in the AFC West and big improvement at QB with Carson Palmer.
8) New York Giants (4-2): Big win over Buffalo to stay in front of the NFC East.
9) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2): Most surprising team in the top 10 at this stage of the season.
10) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): The AFC North is loaded with some talented teams this season and the Steelers are right in the thick of things as expected.

My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay Packers                                   32) Miami Dolphins
2) New England Patriots                               31) St Louis Rams
3) Baltimore Ravens                                      30) Indianapolis Colts
4) New Orleans Saints                                   29) Minnesota Vikings
5) San Francisco 49ers                                  28) Arizona Cardinals

Week 7 Picks and Previews
This is where I will be placing my picks for Week 7 from the NFL as soon as I have locked them in with the lines I like.

Last week was disappointing as I was so close in some games, but 3 of the 4 bigger picks fell and that left me with a loss on the week. It has been a tough season so far, but I have full faith it will be turned around.

I will update my Twitter page whenever I put up new picks and let us all hope for a bit more luck this week:

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12153-Green-Bay-Packers-at-Minnesota-Vikings.htm)

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12154-Baltimore-Ravens-at-Jacksonville-Jaguars.htm)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12155-Kansas-City-Chiefs-at-Oakland-Raiders.htm)

San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12156-San-Diego-Chargers-at-New-York-Jets.htm)

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12157-Atlanta-Falcons-at-Detroit-Lions.htm)

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12158-Denver-Broncos-at-Miami-Dolphins.htm)

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12159-Washington-Redskins-at-Carolina-Panthers.htm)

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12160-Indianapolis-Colts-at-New-Orleans-Saints.htm)

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12162-Chicago-Bears-at-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers.htm)

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (4 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (4 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs + 5 Points @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers - 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 4 Points @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 1 Point @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts + 14 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 1 Point @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)

WEEK 6: 4-4-1, - 2.24 Units
WEEK 55-3, + 3.15 Units
WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units
WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units
WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units
WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units

SEASON UPDATE: 24-24-2, - 5.48 Units

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