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Saturday, 29 October 2011

NFL Week 8 Picks and Previews

Another tough week for the picks, but not because of the quantity, but more to do with poor money management as both the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens failed to cover the spread in contrasting manners as my two biggest plays of the week.

The Packers failure was a little unlucky as a couple of lucky throws from Christian Ponder were completed on the Minnesota late drive that resulted in a TD, although they were also aided by a very strange official call.

Baltimore just laid an egg in losing outright to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football in a terrible Offensive performance as they could not get anything going until it was far too late.

The poor officiating is beginning to annoy not just us betters, but also teams across the NFL with many of them now agreeing this is as bad as it has been for years with so many strange calls.

I won't moan too much about them considering I had a big winner in the Green Bay-Chicago game earlier this season when a phantom call prevented the Bears covering, but I have been hit on at least 3 occasions off the top of my head so am hoping that 'evens up' for my wagers.


Week 7 Thoughts
1) We stink... No, you stink... Yes, we all stink: I don't know how many of you managed to watch the Miami-Denver game last week, but it was brutal. Miami finally looked like they were going to win a game, but the Miracle of Tim Tebow occurred to allow Denver to come back from 15-0 down with 3 minutes left to tie, and then win the game in OT.


There have been a lot of talk over what went wrong which all began when a few Miami players indicated that the Defense was in the wrong formation to stop the Tebow run that tied the game.


We then heard Reggie Bush say the team 'stinks', only for Yeremiah Bell to respond that 'he (Bush) stinks'... Bush has since said Bell is correct and that the whole team stinks as well as anyone who is connected with the Miami Dolphins.


It just looks like this team is pretty much falling apart at the moment, while the news that all Dolphins fans were really hoping for came through this week- they have signed JP Losman and he could very much be involved this weekend as Matt Moore is suffering from sore ribs and now faces the sack happy Giants.


I feel so blessed to be paying to see this team(!) Urghhh...


2) Was that the worst Week we will see in the NFL this season?: I said before the week started that there were some awful games on the schedule last week and was not disappointed as the game mentioned in point 1, the Seattle-Cleveland game and the Baltimore-Jacksonville game all stunk out the day.


We also saw Tennessee and Indianapolis get ripped for huge numbers, while Oakland threw SIX Interceptions in their loss to Kansas City.


It just seems the bad teams this season really suck, and I am not sure how much of that is down to the lockout either.


Here's hoping Week 8 is more fun to watch.


3) Kansas City are surprisingly back in the AFC West race: I will be honest and say I really thought the Chiefs were going to have a big fall back season after reaching the Play Offs last season as I just thought they had taken advantage of a very soft schedule and through the first 3 Weeks of the season I was feeling comfortable with what I thought they were going to be.


Kansas City also lost Eric Berry on the Defense and Jamaal Charles on the Offense so I really didn't think they would be challenging in the AFC West this season... Until last Sunday.


I picked the Chiefs with the points last week, but I still thought they would ultimately lose the game. However, they won big and now know they can be tied for the Division lead at 4-3 if they can beat San Diego at home on Monday Night Football.


That will also allow them to move to 2-1 in the Division, while having to play Denver twice and hosting Oakland and all of a sudden the Chiefs are a real threat in this Division again.


4) San Francisco could be the first team to secure a Play Off place... and by Thanksgiving no less: I am being a little dramatic with the suggestion they secure a Play Off spot so soon, but the NFC West is BAD again this season and the 49ers already hold a 3 game lead over second placed Seattle, who scored just 3 points against Cleveland last week.


7 wins secure this Division last season, and I think that could be the case again this season, but the 49ers already have 5 wins on the board and their schedule reads Cleveland, @ Washington, New York Giants, Arizona, @ Baltimore, with the last of those taking place on Thanksgiving Day.


Now I can see the 49ers going at least 3-1 in their next 4 games, which will leave them at 8-2 before the Thanksgiving Day game at Baltimore and I think that would be good enough to see them make the Play Offs, even if it is not official by then.




Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers (7-0)
2) New England Patriots (5-1): Team to beat in the AFC, but big test at Heinze Field this week
3) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): Biggest test since being hammered by the Ravens in Week 1 as they host the Patriots
4) San Francisco 49ers (5-1)
5) New Orleans Saints (5-2): Anyone take the New Orleans - 50 point spread last week?
6) New York Giants (4-2)
7) Baltimore Ravens (4-2): Ugly loss at Jacksonville has people questioning whether they can win the big one again this week.
8) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
9) Detroit Lions (5-2): Can they really afford to lose a 3rd game on the bounce being in the tough NFC North?
10) San Diego Chargers (4-2): One more loss to Kansas City on Monday Night Football and people will begin wondering if this talented team will ever get to the big game.




My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay Packers                             32) Miami Dolphins
2) New England Patriots                         31) Indianapolis Colts
3) New Orleans Saints                             30) St Louis Rams
4) Pittsburgh Steelers                              29) Arizona Cardinals
5) Baltimore Ravens                                28) Minnesota Vikings




Week 8 Picks and Previews
I have not locked in any picks yet this week as I have been trying to tweak my system just a little as I have been reading about how the same things that have worked in the past have not been working this season.

The rumours in Vegas is that all the 'wiseguys' have had a terrible season so far, while a lot of the public plays keep coming in.

I can't imagine that will last all season, but it has meant I have been following line movements more this week before I begin locking in picks.

It was almost a wonderful week for the picks last week and, while going 5-4, it was the bigger picks that let me down from having a very profitable week and instead left with a loss.

As always, I will update my Twitter page whenever I lock in picks, but you can start expecting them to be placed in the next few hours and updated throughout the day tomorrow.

The picks:

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12261-Miami-Dolphins-at-New-York-Giants.htm)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12262-Jacksonville-Jaguars-at-Houston-Texans.htm)

New Orleans Saints @ St Louis Rams Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12264-New-Orleans-Saints-at-St-Louis-Rams.htm)

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12266-Arizona-Cardinals-at-Baltimore-Ravens.htm)

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12268-New-England-Patriots-at-Pittsburgh-Steelers.htm)

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12269-Cleveland-Browns-at-San-Francisco-49ers.htm)

Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12270-Detroit-Lions-at-Denver-Broncos.htm)

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12271-Dallas-Cowboys-at-Philadelphia-Eagles.htm)


MY PICKS: New York Giants - 9 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 12.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (3 Units)
New England Patriots - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Detroit Lions - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinncale (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)



WEEK 7: 5-4, - 2.61 Units
WEEK 64-4-1, - 2.24 Units
WEEK 55-3, + 3.15 Units
WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units
WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units
WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units
WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units


SEASON UPDATE29-28-2, - 8.09 Units

3 comments:

  1. I just heard that both Daniel Thomas and Vontae Davis have been ruled out for Miami on Sunday.

    Upped my Giants pick to a 4 Unit play and making them my biggest bet of the weekend.

    Good luck guys

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey Dav,

    What are your thoughts on the San Diego game. Bookies seem to have priced it as a close one.

    Any room for one team to dominate the other...on the scoreboard mainly :) I had some good luck with the Eagles, Bills and Cincinnati (lucky I guess) on bigger lines than the starting ones.

    Cheers,
    Dan

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good on you Dan, nice winners picked there.

    I read some of the games so wrong this weekend that I decided to skip this MNF for the week, but I had liked the Chiefs with more than a FG head start.

    The Chargers are super-talented, but just seem to play within in themselves, while the Chiefs are in fine form at the moment, even if they have to played anyone that good in their winning run (not counting Oakland who had QB issues).

    Philip Rivers has looked a little off for the Chargers this season too so can see the Chiefs keeping this close.

    Think it is settled by 3 points either way, but I won't be putting my money down on it

    ReplyDelete

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