Week 4 was a tough week for my picks as so many looked to be in a great position only to be blown with 4th Quarter meltdowns.
The picks that hurt the most were the Atlanta - 4.5 and Philadelphia - 8.5 picks, especially considering both had 20 point leads in the 3rd Quarter yet allowed their poorer opponents to come back and cover the spreads.
Tampa Bay decided they would kill themselves considering the Colts were struggling to get much going on Defense on their own.
In saying that, I also made a couple of really bad calls with St Louis being the most obvious one.
The one thing I am holding on to right now is I am reading the games fairly well, I just need that bit of luck to send me going back to the profit side of things.
WEEK 4 THOUGHTS
1) Atlanta have spent too much bringing in Julio Jones: This is absolutely, positively, totally nothing to do against Julio Jones who is really a top WR in the making, but the Falcons gave up a lot to bring him in and the lack of depth in other areas of the team are hurting them.
Atlanta have rolled the dice to win now, but the Offensive Line is struggling, the Defense made Tavaris Jackson (yes, THAT Tavaris Jackson) look like Tom Brady and now they go home to face the Green Bay Packers.
The Falcons are in one of the toughest Divisions in the NFL and could have a hard time making the Play Offs a year after finishing with the best NFC record in the regular season.
2) Miami take the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes: I am a Miami fan so the best thing I can think of this season is that at least there is a good chance of picking up Andrew Luck in the Draft next April.
Chad Henne has struggled as the starter for the Dolphins, but his injury means Matt Moore comes in and I really have no faith in him.
The Dolphins Defense is not as good as people thought it might be at the start of the season (I was not one of those and have not been as surprised as some) and they have a tough schedule.
Add in the problems of winning at home and I can only see them winning 2 games which could be enough to 'win' the overall Number 1 Pick.
3) Philadelphia Eagles are already staring down the barrel: Ok, I am being a little dramatic by saying that, but the Eagles are in a really tough Division and they are 1-3, blowing yet another game with a poor 4th Quarter display.
A real problem is the much vaunted Defense that has been torched this season, and that is something they need to resolve quickly as Washington and the New York Giants both look capable of doing big things this season and the 'Dream Team' could find themselves without any commitments in January.
They face a big game at Buffalo next week and, while not a 'must win', they need to show some real character against a tough opponent on the road.
4) Donovon McNabb is just about done in Minnesota: The Vikings lost again this week to move to 0-4 and effectively end their chances of making the Play Offs in a Division containing Green Bay and Detroit, even though they have had a tougher start to the season in terms of opponents than it may seem.
That start means they may as well give Christian Ponder a chance at QB and see whether he is going to be good enough in the NFL- with someone like Andrew Luck available in the Draft, the Vikings would be foolish to not see what they have in Ponder and they are better off doing that sooner rather than later.
McNabb has had a very good NFL career, but his play has been erratic this season, and he looks like he has lost a couple yards in his play.
I am beginning to think Mike Shanahan was not as silly as some of us thought when he ditched McNabb for Rex Grossman this offseason.
5) The Marion Barber celebration for his first TD as a Chicago Bear really did make me chuckle: This has to be the best thing I saw this weekend... as the boys on ESPN say, C'Mon Man http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3VdgBdkGZ4
POWER RANKINGS TOP 10
1) Green Bay Packers (4-0): As I said last week, this Offense can't be stopped and the only way to beat them right now is to outscore them... Good luck with that.
2) Detroit Lions (4-0): Another huge comeback in the 2nd half in a 2nd consecutive road game shows the heart they have. They have a big night on Monday Night Football against the Bears next.
3) New Orleans Saints (3-1): Only defeat to the Packers prevents them being unbeaten
4) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): As poor as the Offense was, the Defense was impressive
5) New England Patriots (3-1): Impressive win in Oakland
6) New York Giants (3-1): Playing some very good football over the last 2 weeks
7) San Diego Chargers (3-1): A good start under Norv Turner and cream of the crop in AFC West.
8) Houston Texans (3-1): Big win over the Steelers but at a BIG cost if Andre Johnson is out for an extended period of time.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1): Need to cut some of the mistakes if they want to keep tabs with the Saints.
10) Washington Redskins (3-1): The Defense will help keep them in a lot of games this season.
MY TOP 5 and BOTTOM 5
1) Green Bay Packers 32) Miami Dolphins
2) New England Patriots 31) Indianapolis Colts
3) New Orleans Saints 30) St Louis Rams
4) Baltimore Ravens 29) Minnesota Vikings
5) Detroit Lions 28) Seattle Seahawks
WEEK 5 Picks and Previews
The Picks here will be updated as the week progresses right here- you can follow me on Twitter where I update any time I have put some previews and picks up. This is key to grabbing the same lines I will be rather than waiting until Sunday and finding spreads may well have moved over/below key numbers.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11960-Denver-Broncos-v-San-Diego-Chargers.htm) LOCKED THURSDAY
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11965-Atlanta-Falcons-v-Green-Bay-Packers.htm) LOCKED THURSDAY
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11971-Houston-Texans-v-Oakland-Raiders.htm) LOCKED SATURDAY RIP AL DAVIS 1929-2011
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11972-New-York-Giants-v-Seattle-Seahawks.htm) LOCKED SATURDAY
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11973-Buffalo-Bills-v-Philadelphia-Eagles.htm) LOCKED SATURDAY
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11974-Pittsburgh-Steelers-v-Tennessee-Titans.htm)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11975-New-England-Patriots-v-New-York-Jets.htm)
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11979-Detroit-Lions-v-Chicago-Bears.htm) LOCKED IN SUNDAY
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 6 Points @ 1.85 BetFred (3 Units)
New York Giants - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units
WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units
WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units
WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units
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