NBA Playoffs 2025- First Round Picks Game 5-7 (April 29th-May 4th)
The post-season of any sport will have drama and controversy attached to it and every call at this time of the season can be critical.
At the end of a tough regular season, teams and Coaches want things to be decided on the field of play, or on the court in terms of NBA Basketball, but it does not always work out as planned.
My New York Knicks have been involved in the most controversy through four games of their First Round Series, but the calls have gone in favour of the Number 3 Seed and produced a 3-1 lead over the Detroit Pistons. Hearing about mistakes made in the officiating hours after the final score has been set will not do much for the Pistons right now and most of the Series have trended in the direction expected.
That does not mean the lower Seeds are all in trouble- the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors were seen as dangerous lower Seeds and both are leading their Series at the time of writing (the Warriors Game 4 with the Houston Rockets is played on Monday evening).
As expected, the tough Western Conference is where the majority of the drama now resides as we move into the back end of the First Round- the Oklahoma City Thunder swept through to the Semi Finals, but they may have to wait a while before knowing if they are going to be facing the 2023 Champions Denver Nuggets or the dangerous looking Los Angeles Clippers with that Series tied at 2-2.
Over in the East, the Number 1 Seed Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to wrap up their own place in the Semi Finals on Monday evening, although even a defeat is not expected to delay progress too long, while the Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and aforementioned Knicks are all one win away from moving through too.
It could all mean that the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series begin this weekend even while the West is yet to wrap up the opening Round, but this will all come out in the wash over the next few days.
The opening NBA Playoff Picks have been far too inconsistent and it has been a tough start, although there is still plenty of games to get through before the next NBA Champion is crowned.
A few of the selections have narrowly failed to get over the line, which can be frustration, but it is a long Playoff run and so nothing to get too panicked over.
Tuesday 29th April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 5 Pick: From the opening tip of this First Round Series, it has been a real slog for the Milwaukee Bucks and they may just have run out of any real hope of turning things around.
A strong Game 3 effort halved the deficit, but the Bucks were blown out in Game 4 and that in a game where Damian Lillard picked up a serious injury that is going to rule him out for a considerable period of time. After missing the end of the regular season, Lillard's return to the lineup offered a spark to Milwaukee, but they missed his Offensive output as Game 4 got away from them and the lack of depth has left Milwaukee on the brink of another disappointing early effort.
Twelve months ago they had the excuse of not having Giannis Antetokounmpo available, but the Greek superstar has played in this Series and has simply not been offered a lot of support from those around him. Once again there are going to be questions about his future with the team and whether the Milwaukee Bucks can really create a Championship-calibre team for the second time.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to need some serious answers, while Head Coach Doc Rivers has to be under pressure with the perception of another underachieving Playoff run looking destined for his team.
The Bucks will head to Indiana to try and win here for the first time in the Series and see if they can build some pressure on the Pacers, but all of this feels like a long-shot now.
The depth of the Indiana Pacers and the willingness to let the hot hand take over games has pushed them into a dominant position in this First Round Series and it is really difficult to imagine that changing. The Pacers crushed Milwaukee in Game 1 when Damian Lillard was missing for the road team and everything is pointing to a relatively comfortable win in front of the home fans again.
All of the pressure is on the Bucks to make the adjustments needed to create some uncertainty around the First Round Series.
It should be something that helps the Pacers who have been a steady and deep rotation and one that has controlled the Series. The confidence of having reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year should be just guiding this team forward and the Indiana Pacers look set to beat the Milwaukee Bucks and cover this spread.
All three wins in the Series have been by at least 8 points, but two of those wins have been double digit blowouts and the Indiana Pacers can use the depth of their rotation to break down the Milwaukee Bucks again.
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: The officials have admitted they missed a big call at the very end of Game 4 of this First Round Series.
Now while there is no telling if Tim Hardaway Jr would have made two of the three Free Throws he should have gotten, there is a definite feeling that it would have happened. And that would have meant the Detroit Pistons heading to Madison Square Garden at 2-2 and with the momentum, rather than 3-1 down and facing elimination for the first time in this First Round Series.
What will anger the Pistons most is that they feel they should have been given a call at the end of Game 3 that may have seen them find a way to win or tie that one and there is another dimension where the Pistons would be leading 3-1. It counts for nothing in this one though and the young Detroit team that have achieved so much this season have to find a way to dust themselves down and try and force one more game at home.
This is going to be a huge challenge for a Pistons team that started Game 4 really poorly and did not finish with the kind of flourish that may have just seen them edge in front of the New York Knicks. Inexperience is perhaps showing, but the failure of the officials will really have stung the entire team with just one day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5.
New York will be feeling pretty good after seeing Karl-Anthony Towns make some huge Fourth Quarter plays and just remind those watching why the Knicks traded to bring him in. Jalen Brunson picked up a worrying injury, but also came out strong in the Fourth Quarter and the two deserve a lot of credit for keeping the Knicks in touch and ultimately find a way to secure the victory that takes them to the brink of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Physicality has been a real feature of the Series, but the referees may be more ready to call fouls after allowing both teams to play as hard as they have. The fact they missed a big call at the end of Game 4 may mean wanting to take control of this game immediately and that could help this Game 5 move past the total line set.
All of the games have been competitive in this Series and we may just get one more of those, which makes the spread in favour of the Detroit Pistons look appealing.
Hosts of Game 5 are only 22-24 against the spread since 2017, while teams who have suffered a close loss have found a way to bounce back and cover the spread in their next game. You have to accept that backing an inexperienced team that has suffered two very close defeats is not a great spot, but the Pistons have shown they can compete with the New York Knicks all season and may do enough to avoid the heavy defeat as they put everything out on the court.
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: It has been a tough, physical First Round Series and one in which a number of key Boston Celtics players have picked up ailments that have either seen them miss a Playoff game or fight through the pain to compete. They have not been completely convinced that everything that has been done to them should be legal, but the Boston Celtics are NBA Champions for a reason and the win on Sunday may just have broken the back of the Series.
Jrue Holiday is expected to miss out again, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have refused to let this Series get away from the Celtics.
A lot of credit has to be given to the Orlando Magic for making Boston play a game that suits them best- they have been able to harass the key players and simply not allowed the Celtics to get going from the three point arc as they have been accustomed to doing all season.
Doing that at home is always going to be easier though and the Magic were pretty well beaten in both opening games here in Boston. Paolo Banchero and Frank Wagner are trying to do all they can to drag this Series back in the favour of the Magic, but the role players will be challenged in a much tougher environment and it may be tough for Orlando to have the belief to keep up with the Celtics having lost Game 4 pretty late on.
The Magic will look to keep doing what they have, but the adjustments can be made by Boston to try and find a few more open lanes for the shooters. That should be easier to make at home where the fans will just help out those role players who have not really been at the races in the last couple of games.
And despite being dragged into scraps, the Boston Celtics have still looked the superior team by some distance and that may all come out to show on Tuesday as they look to close out the Series and take their place in the Semi Finals. Being set as a big favourite has tended to work out well for the Number 2 Seed in recent history and Boston could easily have covered in all four games played, even if they are 2-2 against the spread through this Series.
This is a big mark, but the feeling is that the Celtics have perhaps broken the spirit of the Number 7 Seed and they can cover a big mark set for Game 5.
LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: There have been so many big Playoff moments through four games of this First Round Series and that makes it very difficult to know exactly where the Series is heading. We are tied at 2-2 after the Denver Nuggets overcame blowing a huge lead, the biggest in their franchise history in the post-season, to score a bucket as time ran out to level things up.
Both teams have seen big leads whittled away within games through the Series and all but one game has been very, very competitive.
The Series shifts back to Denver and the Nuggets have been set as home underdogs with the feeling being that the LA Clippers have easier adjustments to make. Falling in love with the three point shot is not the plan for the Clippers and they showed in that Fourth Quarter of Game 4 that they have the tools to beat the Nuggets, even if they were eventually undone by an unbelievable play to end the game.
Defensively they have allowed Nikola Jokic to have his numbers, but trying to limit the damage others have done has been important for them.
Those same decisions were made by the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 as they decided to hound James Harden and Kawhi Leonard and force others to beat them. This looked to be working perfectly, but the Clippers showed their strength and why they finished the regular season as well as they did and that is going to be key for them in Game 5, which could be a vital one in this Series.
Both teams will be proud of what they have largely been able to do Defensively and this could be another game in the Series that ends with the 'under' coming out on top.
The 'under' is 4-0 and that includes in Game 1 that ended in Overtime, although the layers have dropped the total again.
However, the 'under' is on a 24-16 run in Game 5 of the First Round in the Playoffs, while this has been the play when the total line has been set below 218 total points. Overtime would prove to be an end for the selection, but the two teams may look for the Defensive efforts to secure a lead in the Series with a maximum of two games left and that is the outcome to be backed.
Wednesday 30th April
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 5 Pick: There has not been much love lost between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors throughout this First Round Series and the chippy attitude is set to continue with the teams moving back to Houston.
The opening win in Houston has helped push the Golden State Warriors to the edge of moving through to the Semi Finals after holding serve in both home games. The victory on Monday in Game 4 saw the Warriors come out extremely well in the Third Quarter to turn things around and the returning Jimmy Butler was key for Golden State as they narrowly won the game and took complete control of the Series.
Championship experience will mean Golden State are focused in trying to get the job done without having to return home for a Game 6 and they will also be keen to earn a few days of rest. There is every chance that the Series between Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will also end on Wednesday evening and that will mean the Warriors will be keen on earning the same amount of rest before Game 1 of the next Series.
Draymond Green was in foul trouble on Monday so had minutes limited, but both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler played 40 minutes and that has to be a potential factor with just a day of rest between games.
The young Rockets team have shown some of the inexperience throughout this Series and they are under pressure with one more loss ending what has been a very good season. Trying to avoid that in front of the home fans will help, even if hosts have struggled in Game 5 of the recent First Round Series that have been played.
Number 2 Seeds that are set as favourites of at least 4.5 points have a very strong recent history of covering, while those Seeds playing after a defeat are on a 20-7 run against the spread.
As much as the Warriors would love to wrap up this Series, they may have to deal with one more big swing from the Houston Rockets, even if the higher Seeded team need to overcome the disappointment of not tying up this Series following two games at Golden State. The line is considerable if the inexperience shows, but a positive start from Houston could see them take control and have Golden State mentally preparing to complete the Series win later in the week.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 5 Pick: They may have players that have won NBA Championships and played in NBA Finals, but the Los Angeles Lakers will know they missed a trick by failing to win one of the two games played on the road over the last few days. Instead of returning home at least level, the Lakers are 3-1 behind and questions are being asked about the team and Head Coach JJ Redick.
He would have been given a lot of credit for making the in-game adjustments that had the Lakers motoring through the Third Quarter and moving into a position to control Game 4, but the failure to give those players any rest felt costly down the stretch. Even then, the Lakers frustration will have grown when officials admitted they had got a late call wrong, which may have given the Lakers a chance to have the last shot to win the game and tie the Series.
They had played well in Game 3 too before another late Fourth Quarter collapse and that will really disappoint a roster that has the likes of Luka Doncic and LeBron James to lead the team at critical moments.
Instead it has been Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves making the big late plays that have turned this Series in favour of the dangerous Number 6 Seed and they will be looking to close the show on Wednesday.
Doing so on the road will be challenging, but the Timberwolves can take confidence in how they have handled adversity in their last couple of games. They have also won Game 1 at Crypto.com Arena and Minnesota will be keen on extending what has been a poor covering spot for hosts in Game 5 of the First Round.
The Lakers will be grateful for an extra day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, but the noise around the team will have been deafening as they return home looking to keep the season alive. A short rotation has meant some of the players have had to spend considerable time on the court and that will wear down any team at this time of the season and especially when dealing with an opponent like the Minnesota Timberwolves who had ended the regular season in strong form.
Teams that are looking to close out a Series before Game 7 have a very strong record when either set as a favourite of less than 3 points or when they are down as the underdog like Minnesota are on Wednesday. Those teams are 14-6 against the spread in the last twenty occasions in that situation and the Timberwolves can make use of the points being given to them in this Game 5.
Thursday 1st May
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Game 6 Pick: There has to have been some feeling that the New York Knicks had gotten the hard work out of the way by winning twice on the road to move into a 3-1 lead in this First Round Series. One more big effort would have been needed, but the Series continues to be hugely competitive, as anticipated when the Playoff bracket was set, and this time it was the Detroit Pistons who edged to the win.
Twelve points- that is the combined total that has decided the last four games in this Series and those have been split with two road wins each.
Seventeen years have passed since the Detroit Pistons have won a home Playoff game and they will be frustrated with how each of the first two games have ended at the Little Caesars Arena. Better officiating may have seen the Pistons win both, but those are in the past and Head Coach JB Bickerstaff is just focusing on making sure his team is able to return to Madison Square Garden for one more game.
They found some solutions to slow down Jalen Brunson in Game 5 to bring this game back home, but they will need Ausar Thompson to make sure he is as disciplined as he was the last time out. The Pistons may also benefit from this Game 6 being played with just a day of rest, especially if Brunson and Josh Hart are both banged up.
It led to a late game situation in Game 5 where both Brunson and Hart were waiting to check back into action, but the Knicks Head Coach Tom Thibodeau refused to call a timeout, or ask his team to foul, to bring both back in. Questions will be asked about that if the Knicks are eliminated in the First Round and so there is plenty of pressure on the Number 3 Seed who are looking to progress at the second time of asking.
They have shown a real determination to win here twice, but it may be asking a lot to do that for a third time in the Series.
New York do have a couple of historical trends in their favour- road teams have played well in Game 6, while those looking to close a Series on the road have been very strong against the spread. Small favourites, or underdogs, who are looking to close out a Series have been productive before the Game 7 decider and so there will be people ready to back the Knicks.
However, it may be tough if Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart are not playing at their top level and the momentum is back with the Detroit Pistons having hung on for a road win on Tuesday.
Another competitive game has to be expected, and the Pistons may be ready to force that Game 7 later this week.
Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers Game 6 Pick: After coming out shooting the ball as efficiently as they did, the Denver Nuggets were able to dominate Game 5 from the opening tip off and that has put them 3-2 ahead in this First Round Series.
Nikola Jokic is the best player the Nuggets have on the roster, but the LA Clippers know that too and so it was extremely important for Denver to have Jamal Murray at his peak Playoff level in the blowout win in Game 5.
Now they take aim at moving past the LA Clippers and get ready to face the top Seed Oklahoma City Thunder, but there has to be a reaction expected from the home team. James Harden struggled and the Defensive intensity was simply missing in the loss in Game 5 and the adjustments have to be made to ensure both factors are turned around when they meet back in the City of Angels.
Back to back losses will have dented the confidence of the LA Clippers, but they have plenty of Playoff experience and that is so important. Players will have suffered heavy post-season losses before and know how to handle those and you have to believe it is going to be easier for the LA Clippers to fight back in front of the home fans.
It has been a Series dominated by the underdog and that cannot be ignored when the teams meet on Thursday.
Both are familiar with what the other wants to do and it does come down to execution and the Nuggets have shown they can win games in different ways to turn this Series back in their favour.
They are in a positive spot with road teams doing really well in recent years in Game 6 of the First Round of the Playoffs, while the Nuggets are also falling into the historical trends mentioned in the New York Knicks preview of road teams having a positive record at closing Series in this situation.
The outright winner of Game 6 has dominated the spread over the last decade and the LA Clippers are very dangerous. However, it feels the momentum shift makes this number of points difficult for the home team to cover and the Denver Nuggets can backed here.
Friday 2nd May
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: Plenty of reporters have written about the blowout loss suffered by the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 and compared it with the performance in the Semi Final Series win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the exact same situation in 2022.
The Warriors not only rallied to win that Series 4-2, but they were able to move forward and win the NBA Championship and this is a veteran roster who will not be panicking about one loss.
However, the concern has to be that the likes of Draymond Green, Steph Curry are much older in 2025 compared with where they would have been in 2022 and there is a lack of rest being offered to them between games as the First Round Series winds down. Head Coach Steve Kerr was able to give his older players plenty of rest with Game 5 getting out of hand and he resisted bringing them back in after the backups helped the Warriors rally and make the final score much closer than the overall feel of that game.
There was some concern in the Houston Rockets ranks having had to bring back the starters to end the rally the Warriors had put together and yet the Series remains very chippy. Another player faced an ejection and the teams clearly are not getting on with one another, while Golden State have suggested that the Rockets are trying to injure Steph Curry by bending the rules and hitting his thumb after a shot has been released.
Houston are resisting all of that talk and instead will feel they have some momentum as the Number 2 Seed bids to avoid being eliminated in the First Round. Heading to Golden State for Game 6 is going to present a big challenge for Houston, but they have been competitive in both games hosted by the Warriors and that has to give the Rockets a huge amount of encouragement.
They know they are the younger and fresher team, although you cannot ever dismiss the value of experience that Golden State have, and Houston will look to use their legs to wear the Warriors down.
The feeling is that we are going to get one huge effort from the Warriors, but a team looking to close out a Series having failed once to do so have struggled against the spread in recent seasons. Hosting Game 6 has proven to be a tough spot in which to cover too and Houston look to be getting enough points in this one to keep this close, even if they were to be beaten and eliminated.
Opposing Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler and everything we have seen from these players in the post-season is not exactly a position in which you can feel comfortable, but the Rockets look capable of pushing all the way and this feels like enough points that can see the road underdog cover.
Saturday 3rd May
LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: One or two First Round Series really stood out as potentially needing all seven games to decide a winner and this would have been one of the leading contenders to do that. Big adjustments made by the LA Clippers put them in a solid position to keep control of Game 6 and at least force one more outing at the home of the Denver Nuggets for a place in the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Both teams have plenty of veteran experience to lean on, although the challenge may come in the next Round against the Number 1 Seed Oklahoma City Thunder who have been resting after sweeping past the Memphis Grizzlies. That is a story for another day and everything that has been put into the 2024/25 season will come down to this 'win or go home' setting for the Clippers and Nuggets.
Picking a winner is not easy and that is backed up by the oddsmakers who have effectively left this as a 'pick 'em' contest.
The Clippers may feel they have the momentum having won Game 6 and the adjustments they made for that victory will stand them in good stead. They will be keen for James Harden to make another fast start and the experience of Head Coach Tyronn Lue is very important as the Clippers look to avoid what would be a disappointing First Round Playoff exit.
Despite not having the same level of experience as Head Coach, David Adelman can lean on a group of players who were key in helping the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Championship. He will be looking for a cleaner game from his players with the turnovers in Game 6 proving to be a key part of the reason that the team were beaten, while Adelman will sit with the veterans and look to find a way to get Jamal Murray going again.
At this stage of the First Round, both Denver and the LA Clippers will be well aware of the capabilities of the other and there won't be too many surprises. The favourite has tended to prevail in recent First Round Game 7s and that is largely down to the fact that the layers have a pretty good idea about the capabilities of both teams by this point of the Series.
However, as mentioned, picking a winner is not easy and instead it may be wise to look for this game to follow the last two and move past the total set. The Clippers have certainly felt they need to sacrifice some Defensive work to score more points, while the Nuggets will believe they can be more efficient scoring than they were in Game 6, which finished at 216 points combined/
The total has actually slipped from Game 6 and it may be partly down to the one day between rest and the games in Denver trending towards the lower end of the total line that would be set. However, the last one here ended with both Offensive units flying and the teams are capable of combining to move past this total if both continue to believe that scoring needs to be improved.
Calls for more fouls to be punished may also lead to a longer Game 7 with teams heading to the Free Throw line and it should be noted that the last sixteen Game 7s in this Round of the post-season have finished with eleven surpassing the line set. With both teams showing what they can do Offensively in the last couple of games, this is another may end with the 'over' coming in.
Sunday 4th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 7 Pick: You may have thought the Playoff experiences of the Golden State Warriors would shine through, but the Fourth Quarter collapse against the Houston Rockets in Game 6 is a worrying sign. The First Round of the Playoff Series comes down to a winner takes all Game 7 in Houston and all of the momentum is with the Number 2 Seed having recovered from a 3-1 deficit and looked the much stronger team in Game 5 and Game 6.
The adjustments made by the Golden State Warriors have not made the impact they would have hoped- they have managed to control Jalen Green, but Fred VanVleet has Playoff experience and has been getting stronger as the Series has moved on.
It was VanVleet who made the big plays in Game 6 and the Houston Rockets have to be feeling very comfortable in the position they are in.
The Warriors will always feel they have good chances with the experience on the roster, but Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green have been putting in big shifts on the court and you do have to wonder if the veterans are running out of gas. They have not been helped by the relentless pressure that the Houston Rockets have been able to put on them on the Defensive side of the court and the lack of depth on the roster has shown up in the last couple of games in the Series.
Everyone in Houston has to be expecting at least one more big push from the Warriors, but the key for the Rockets is making sure they continue to force Golden State to work as hard as they have been for every bucket they are making.
It could see Houston wear down this opponent and complete the recovery from 1-3 to secure passage into the Second Round of the Playoff.
Favourites have been a solid team to back in Game 7 in recent First Round Series, although they have struggled to cover. However, this time the Houston Rockets look to have the majority of factors in their favour and they will certainly be inspired by the feeling that the layers still do not believe in them by setting them as a narrow home favourite.
Game 7 is a pressurised situation and that is where the Warriors experience may yet shine through, but it is hard to look past the momentum picked up by Houston and how much stronger they have looked in the last couple of games in this Series. That should eventually be seen again in this big game and the Houston Rockets may power through to the next Round.
MY PICKS: 29/04 Indiana Pacers - 8 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
29/04 Detroit Pistons + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
29/04 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
29/04 Denver Nuggets-LA Clippers Under 208.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
30/04 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
30/04 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
01/05 Detroit Pistons - 2 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
01/05 Denver Nuggets + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
02/05 Houston Rockets + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/05 Denver Nuggets-LA Clippers Over 204.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
04/05 Houston Rockets - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
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