The first clay court Tennis Pick of the season produced a frustrating result, but it is only day one and there are still two months of action to get through.
Stefanos Tsitsipas had his chances, but ultimately missed the cover by a game after missing the multiple Break Points opportunities he had in the middle of set two and beginning of set three. By the time he brought his clinical best tennis into the biggest moments, the cover was missed and the final set 6-2 win was too little, too late (for the Pick if not for his own personal record at the tournament in Monte Carlo).
The rest of the Second Round is going to be played on Wednesday and it is another very busy day in Monte Carlo.
As frustrating as it was on Tuesday, taking careful steps is the only way forward if we want to build on what has been a productive start to the 2025 season.
Two matches have made the shortlist and the selections can be read below.
Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: Partnering with Marat Safin will have made the headlines, but Andrey Rublev will be much happier if it leads to a bit more consistency on the Tour. He is the World Number 9, which means a Bye through to the Second Round in Monte Carlo, but it has not been the most consistent of twelve months and Rublev is looking for answers to just turn things back around.
The form in 2025 has been feast of famine for Andrey Rublev- he has lost opening matches in Hong Kong, Indian Wells and Miami and was also beaten in the First Round at the Australian Open, but the Russian has also won a big title in Doha and had a Quarter Final and Semi Final run during the indoor hard court season in Europe.
An opening clay court match would have been tough anyway, even if Rublev is very comfortable on the surface, but that challenge is that much greater when opposed by someone like Gael Monfils. All of the support in the crowd will be with the player on the other side of the net, which is a challenge to deal with, while Gael Monfils continues to enjoy an Indian Summer with some big performances throughout 2025.
His fightback to comfortably win his First Round match will have certainly helped Gael Monfils after a couple of difficult years playing on the clay. The numbers have not been good enough on the clay in recent seasons with the Gael Monfils serve looking vulnerable, but that First Round win will improve the confidence even as he steps up his level considerably to face a top ten Ranked opponent.
Andrey Rublev, for all his troubles, continues to serve well and that will be key in working his way past the veteran home player.
Breaks have to be expected in this match on this surface, but Andrey Rublev may get his clay court season underway with a solid win over an opponent in good form. His partnership with Marat Safin will be enjoyable to watch, and the hope for Rublev is that his compatriot can just help spark his season with a solid win to open up.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Valentin Vacherot: For the second year in a row, Valentin Vacherot represents Monaco in the Monte Carlo Masters and he is up against Grigor Dimitrov.
The 26 year old will receive plenty of support, although he is facing a popular player, but the World Number 255 has a gap in quality to bridge and that is the much bigger issue for him to deal with.
A Davis Cup win over Nuno Borges on the clay courts will have given Valentin Vacherot confidence, but the majority of the opponents he faces on the Tour are Ranked outside the top 100 and he was crushed by Damir Dzumhur last week in Bucharest.
The First Round win over Jan-Lennard Struff will help, but it is still asking a lot of Valentin Vacherot to compete with Grigor Dimitrov, even if the Bulgarian is much happier on the faster surfaces.
In saying that, it would be foolish to think that Grigor Dimitrov cannot compete on the clay courts with his positive numbers throughout his career suggesting otherwise. His First Round win over Nicolas Jarry underlines the ability of Dimitrov on the red dirt and the World Number 18 has won 66% of his matches played on the clay since the beginning of the 2022 season.
This includes a routine win over Valentin Vacherot on the clay courts of Monte Carlo twelve months ago when Grigor Dimitrov was able to find four Breaks of serve. During that match he only allowed a single Break Point to be created against his own serve and pushed through the gears through the second set to comfortably progress past the Wild Card.
Something similar could happen in this Second Round match with Grigor Dimitrov expected to be able to get on top of rallies as they develop.
Much like that match in 2024, the first set could be competitive, but that soon followed by a more routine set for Grigor Dimitrov and he can do the same here to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Monte Carlo Update: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)
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