NBA Playoffs 2025- First Round Picks Game 1-4 (April 19th-28th)
The second NBA Cup was won by the Milwaukee Bucks against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the long regular season is now in the books with the Playoff Bracket set for the 2025 post-season.
Both the Bucks and the Thunder are involved in First Round Series beginning this weekend, but it Oklahoma City who move into the Playoff as the favourite to win the NBA Championship in June.
They are the Number 1 Seed in the West, but this feels like a loaded Conference and there are some significant obstacles to overcome before the Thunder can even think about competing in the NBA Finals, never mind winning the Championship.
The monster trade made by the Los Angeles Lakers to bring in Luka Doncic has helped them finish with the Number 3 Seed and they were playing really well down the stretch. However, both the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors were arguably the hottest teams in the Western Conference over the last couple of months and both have players who have won Championships to guide them through what is a tough run to the top.
Despite the Head Coaching change, the Denver Nuggets are only two years out from winning it all in dominant fashion and their First Round Series with the Clippers looks like it could be incredibly competitive. The Houston Rockets may feel happy being the Number 2 Seed flying under the radar, but again it should be noted how tough this Conference is from Number 1 Seed to Number 8 and the reward for finishing with the Number 2 Seed is a Series with the Warriors.
The East feels much less open than the Western Conference.
The top two Seeds, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics, look clear of the rest and the latter is the defending Champion that looks to be peaking at a good time.
Credit has to be given to the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic for making the First Round- the Magic have a tough Series with the defending Champions coming up, but the Pistons may have plenty of backers when facing the New York Knicks.
It does feel like the Knicks have not developed enough to finally get back to the NBA Finals and even making the Eastern Conference Finals for only the second time this Century looks like it might be beyond them. They have to be a little wary about this First Round match up against the up and coming Detroit Pistons, but the winner will be a big underdog against the Boston Celtics, assuming they are able to move through.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is challenging the Milwaukee Bucks to give him another Championship winning roster, but the NBA Cup may be about as good as it gets for them even if they are able to beat the Indiana Pacers in the Number 4 vs Number 5 Seed Series.
When putting the Bracket together and trying to pick a way through, it does sadden me to think that mine is about as 'boring' as it gets.
That doesn't mean there won't be upsets, but ultimately I landed on a NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, the top two in the outright market and by some distance too.
Both teams from Los Angeles may have something to say about that with the Clippers tipped to face the Thunder in the Western Conference Semi Final Series and the Lakers expected to move through to the Western Conference Finals. Both may actually push Oklahoma City very hard and accumulated fatigue could be a factor against a young, growing team, although the Lakers would likely have had to come through an incredibly tough Semi Final Series with the Golden State Warriors first.
Over in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics have long looked the best teams and the defending Champions may just have the experience to edge past the Number 1 Seed.
And as for the overall winner, we have not seen a repeat Champion since 2018 and the Oklahoma City Thunder may just do enough to prevent Boston from doing that in 2025.
The 2023 Playoff run for the NBA Picks was a very strong one with a + 10.49 Unit return at 14.98% Yield and it was always going to be tough to match that last year.
In 2024, we did not get the strong First Round performance that was attached to the 2023 NBA Picks and so the final totals ended up reading as + 4.06 Units returned at a 5.34% Yield.
Yes, that is not as strong as 2023, but it is a positive return and that is always better than a losing one.
In reality, I would be happy if this year's Playoff run ends the same as 2024 and scoffing at any positive number would be foolish.
Once again the first three Rounds of the NBA Playoffs will split the Picks across six threads.
NBA Picks from Game 1-4 of the First Round will be placed in this thread and a new one will be created for the Game 5-7 that are needed to be played. It just feels a clearer way to present the selections from the post-season, and has been working for the last couple of Playoff runs.
Once again, four Series will begin on Saturday 19th April with the other four set for Sunday 20th April and selections will be added to this thread through to Monday 28th April when the Cleveland and Houston First Round Series are set to have their Game 4 played.
And once again, let's hope for the New York Knicks to surprise and find a way to secure a first Championship in over fifty years.
Saturday 19th April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 1 Pick: The NBA Playoffs begin on Saturday and this looks like one of the more competitive First Round Series out there.
That should not come as a big surprise considering it pits the Number 4 and Number 5 Seeded teams together and it is a rematch of the First Round Series that was played twelve months ago.
Back then the Milwaukee Bucks were the Number 3 Seed and clearly a NBA Championship calibre team, but an injury suffered by Giannis Antetokounmpo meant he was not going to be able to suit up. The Indiana Pacers took advantage in a 4-2 Series win before doing the same against another injury hit opponent in the Eastern Conferece Semi Finals against the New York Knicks, but the run was ended by eventual Champions Boston Celtics.
This time around the Bucks do have Antetokounmpo suiting up and they have beaten the Indiana Pacers in the regular season series. More positive is the news that Damian Lillard has been cleared to return having missed multiple games at the end of the regular season, although the Bucks will not take any risks and Lillard is hoping to be involved in Game 2 rather than the opening game of the Series.
There is a nice balance about this Indiana Pacers team and they have players capable of stepping up and making the big play at the big moment. Finishing up as the Number 4 Seed represents an improvement on the 2023/24 season, while the Playoff experiences from last year will really help the team and the Pacers have to be respected.
They are a solid team and one that is capable of grinding out results, but Milwaukee will be playing with revenge and with some strong form down the stretch. Being able to do that without Damian Lillard in the lineup has to give the Bucks a real boost in confidence too and they were shooting the ball efficiently as the regular season wound down.
Historically Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs has favoured the home team and they did go 7-1 against the spread last season.
This does make me a little wary about taking the points being offered, but Milwaukee hav matched up well with the Indiana Pacers throughout this regular season and having Giannis Antetokounmpo to lead them is a big bonus. That First Round loss twelve months ago will have stung, but the Milwaukee Bucks look capable of turning that around and they can begin by making that clear in Game 1.
The performance of home teams in the opening game of the First Round is a concern, but the Bucks look to be receiving enough points to at least keep this one close on the scoreboard. They may not quite steal away home court advantage, although for the sake of the NBA Picks we just need Milwaukee to continue to play the Indiana Pacers as hard as they have all season.
LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Two years ago, the Denver Nuggets were a strong NBA Champion, but things like this are quickly forgotten in the fast-moving world of sports.
Head Coach Michael Malone was on course to guide the Nuggets to another Playoff run, but has been surprisingly fired just days before the end of the regular season. Despite that, the Denver Nuggets have been able to hold onto the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference and the reward has been getting paired with the LA Clippers, who are about as hot as any team in the NBA.
Both of these teams are loaded with veteran players that have a huge amount of Playoff experience and there are Champions on both sides of the court.
This makes things that much tougher to call and the key for both the Nuggets and the Clippers is that they are coming into the post-season looking healthy. However, there is a history that suggests that some of the key players on both sides of the court have struggled to remain healthy enough for long stretches to take their teams further forward and that is also a concern over the course of a long Series and Playoff run.
There is a pressure on both teams- both the Clippers and Nuggets will be expecting to make a big impact over the next several weeks and a First Round loss would be seen as a huge underachievement.
The regular season meetings were split with two wins each, but it was the Nuggets who won two of their three home games with the LA Clippers.
It is a slight mental edge, even if the Clippers will suggest they are a lot more locked in now than when the teams met in early January and you would be forgiven for believing them. A hot end to the regular season saw the Clippers climb the standings and avoid the Play In Tournament and they will certainly believe this is a Series they can win, home court advantage or not.
Game 1 feels like it might be a slight edge for the Denver Nuggets, especially with Jamal Murray back in the lineup. He can perhaps help open some of the three point shooting spots and the smaller home favourites in Game 1 of the First Round Series have tended to be that much stronger at covering the handicap mark set.
Neither team was shooting badly down the stretch, but playing in Denver is always tough and the Nuggets may just have a bit more energy in the tank with the Clippers likely to take a slight breath having forced their way into the top six in the Western Conference.
With the talent on the Clippers side of the court, it would not be a huge upset if they win and the odds reflect that, but Denver's experience and the tough environment in which they host may just see them come out on top in Game 1.
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Last season they finished as the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference and there were genuine hopes that the New York Knicks would end the incredibly long wait to call themselves NBA Champions again.
The injury bug hit at the wrong time though and the Knicks were running on fumes as they were beaten in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, although not many New York fans would have expected them to get past the Boston Celtics without key players. They would have liked a shot at the eventual Champions and in 2025 the Knicks go into the Playoff as the Number 3 Seed with the most likely opponent waiting in the next Round being the aforementioned Celtics.
In saying all of that, it would be very foolish of the Knicks to overlook the Number 6 Seeded Detroit Pistons who have had a very strong season. The blend of experience and young talent has propelled this team from finishing with the worst record in the NBA in back to back seasons to almost pushing their way into hosting a First Round Playoff Series.
The upstarts lost their first regular season game with the New York Knicks, but the Pistons have won the last three and there really is not going to be a lot of intimidation about facing this opponent.
Of course the Playoff pressure is very different to playing in the regular season and so the Pistons are going to have to lean on the veterans to guide the likes of Cade Cunningham through the tough moments.
Encouragement can also be taken from the fact that the Knicks do not look as strong Defensively as they have previously and the Pistons will certainly have a chance to put some runs together. Getting back to basics and playing with more intensity on the Defensive side of the court will be the tough challenge laid out in front of the Detroit Pistons having struggled down the stretch, especially as they are going in with a Knicks team that have looked dangerous with the ball in hand.
Jalen Brunson has shown he can step up to the Playoff mark, but he will need support and there is considerable pressure on the shoulders of Karl-Anthony Towns. The Knicks will need everyone to pull together to ensure they are not the victim of a First Round upset, which will not go down well in Gotham, and they have to be firmly aware that this is a very tough Series coming up.
As mentioned, hosts have dominated Game 1's in recent years in the First Round, but this is a big spread being offered to the Pistons.
After the 7-1 ATS run produced by the home teams last season, it may be foolish to be going against another one, but this feels like too many points. As long as the younger Detroit Pistons are prepared for the occasion, they have played well enough to keep up on the scoreboard and the regular season wins over the Knicks will also give the road team a boost in their bid to steal away home court over the next few days.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: The regular season series was split two wins apiece, but the only game played between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves since the Luka Doncic trade ended in a win for the Number 3 Seed.
There are plenty of hopes of a deep Playoff run for the Lakers this season with LeBron James still capable of operating at a high level and having someone like Doncic with him. Last season it was Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks who made the NBA Finals, which included a crushing 4-1 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, and the Slovenian superstar is really looking forward to this Series.
We have heard Luka Doncic discuss his trade from the Dallas Mavericks for the first time this past week and he is clearly not very happy with how things went down. However, the focus will now shift into Playoff mode and looking to show the eliminated Mavericks what could have been if they had made the decision to prolong Doncic's stay with a team he loved.
Now all thoughts are with the Lakers and they played some strong Basketball down the stretch to believe they can have a big impact over the coming weeks.
However, there will be a lot of respct for the Minnesota Timberwolves who had a very strong end to the regular season and that allowed them to move into the Number 6 Seed and avoid having to compete in the Play In Tournament over the last few days. They are looking about as healthy as can be hoped and have players like Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle who will want to show their Playoff intensity in a big First Round Series.
It would be a real surprise if this is not a First Round Series that goes at least six games with both the Lakers and Timberwolves showing strong Defensive intensity to go with their Offensive capabilities. Both will want to use that Defensive side of their game to spark things in transition for them up the court and a competitive Series filled with competitive games looks likely.
Home court could prove to be crucial and the Los Angeles Lakers can open up with a win in Game 1.
Being set as a small favourite could see the Lakers become the latest Game 1 host to cover in such a spot with those teams being on a decent run in recent seasons. Overall it has been really tough for those small home favourites to win and cover in the First Round, but Game 1 has proven to be the best spot and you have to feel the week between games could mean the fans play a big part to push the home players into a position to win.
Rhythm is so important in a League where the three point shooting trend continues to dominate and Luke Doncic and LeBron James may just outperform Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle in the opener. It will be close and the spread should be in play right down to the wire, but the feeling is that the Lakers will find a way to win and likely hit a couple of Free Throws to ensure the cover.
Sunday 20th April
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: At one stage it looked like the Memphis Grizzlies were going to do enough to finish as one of the top six Seeds in the Western Conference, but ultimately they were forced to use the Play In Tournament.
Losing the first game to the Golden State Warriors meant having to play an elimination game on Friday, although the biggest impact is that the Memphis Grizzlies have to face the Number 1 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the First Round of the Playoff.
Beating the Dallas Mavericks in the manner they did will have given the Grizzlies confidence and they will be glad to have Ja Morant available as he prepares to play through the pain. He was important in the relatively comfortable win over the Mavericks, and Memphis are going to need Morant at his best if they are going to find a way to upset the odds.
This has not been the best match up for the Grizzlies with nine straight losses to the Oklahoma City Thunder, including all four games played in the regular season. Worse is how largely uncompetitive those games were with 13 points the closest margin of victory.
It is an early Sunday slot for the Number 8 Seed, which also makes it tougher and they are facing what has been the best team in the Western Conference by some distance through the regular season. There is pressure on the Thunder to make sure they back that up and reach the NBA Finals at the very least, especially after being upset as the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference Finals last year.
They were also upset in Game 1 of the First Round Series with the Number 8 Seeded New Orleans Pelicans so there is going to be something for the Thunder to think about ahead of this opening Playoff game.
However, you have to believe the experiences of last season are only going to benefit the Oklahoma City Thunder and they can come out with more intensity against an opponent they will know can be very dangerous.
Big home favourites have really performed well in the First Round of the Playoff over the last ten years and the Oklahoma City Thunder may continue that trend.
The Grizzlies will want to give the Number 1 Seed something to think about, but this is an opponent that has won plenty of games by wide margins all season and they can do that again.
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtic Game 1 Pick: They didn't just get over the line, but the Boston Celtics dominated the NBA on the way to the Championship in 2024.
This season was never going to travel the same way, but there is little doubt that the Celtics have turned their intensity up over the last couple of months. It is the kind of form that has Boston set as favourites to win the Eastern Conference, despite being down as the Number 2 Seed.
They may have been hoping for a slightly 'easier' First Round Series than facing the Orlando Magic, a team that have been hit hard by injury and that being a key factor as to why they failed to finish in the top six. They crushed the Atlanta Hawks to earn the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the Magic did push the Cleveland Cavaliers all the way in the First Round last season and so have that Playoff experience that can be so important at this time of the year.
Jaylen Brown is set to be involved for the Celtics, which is a huge boost, and they do continue to be an efficient Offensive unit with the Defensive intensity to wear down opponents.
A rested Boston team saw their back up players blown out by the Orlando Magic earlier this month, but the home win over Orlando came in blowout fashion and the Celtics are capable of doing that to anyone they face.
The Magic were playing well as the regular season wound down, even if they were not quite able to get up into the top six in the Eastern Conference. That will give the confidence and they are a team that are willing to double down Defensively and try and grind it out where it is needed.
Doing that against the Boston Celtics is never going to be easy and the home team may become the latest to secure a win and cover as a big host favourite in the First Round of the Playoff. As long as they can find their rhythm from the three point range, Boston may be able to do what they need to in order to pull clear of the underdog.
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: There is a history between these two teams which is based around The Decision when LeBron James took his talent from Cleveland to South Florida.
That is past history now and LeBron James helped both teams win a NBA Championship.
This year the Number 1 Seeded Cleveland Cavaliers move into the post-season with real ambitions to win the NBA Championship again, although they have only had a couple of days to prepare for this opponent. Some may not have believed the Miami Heat would earn the Number 8 Seed having entered the Play In Tournament after finishing tenth in the Eastern Conference and ultimately becoming the first team to reach the Playoff after beginning in that position.
Limited preparation time can be an issue, especially as you can just guarantee that the well Coached Miami Heat will have had a plan for Game 1 of this First Round Series before winning the Number 8 Seed elimination game on Friday. Eric Spoelstra will be aware of the challenge that his team faces, but the Heat have come through the Play In Tournament previously and still managed to make a big impact in the Playoff.
They are always going to be a threat when Coached as well as they are, although the feeling remains that Miami are missing someone who can take over any game. Those players are so important in the post-season, and that is certainly going to be something that may hurt Miami when facing the top Seed in the Conference.
Some of the best players on the Cleveland roster have not played for a number of days, which can be a concern, but the Cavaliers are set as a big favourite and those teams have thrived in the First Round of the Playoffs.
The Heat were involved in a couple of relative competitive losses to Cleveland in the regular season, but they were blown out in the other and the Cavaliers may do just enough to move past this big line.
Monday 21st April
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: There is going to be some regret in the Detroit Pistons locker room having allowed a 21-0 run through the Fourth Quarter that turned what looked like being a road win into a defeat in Game 1 of this First Round Series. Things spiralled out of their control and a team that had been in a strong position were beaten and failed to cover, despite the points they had been given on the spread.
This is one of the First Round Series being played with just a day of rest between Game 1 and Game 2 and all eyes will be on the young Pistons to see how they have handled throwing away the opening Playoff game.
Veterans will remind the team that the only thing that matters is reaching four wins before the New York Knicks, but getting back to Detroit at 1-1 feels important.
The home team will certainly believe they cannot play as poorly as they did in Game 1 and that should give the New York Knicks the impetus to back up the victory snatched from the jaws of defeat. Jalen Brunson looked to have hurt his ankle again during the win, but his performance in the Fourth Quarter has given New York the belief that he has avoided any issue that may keep him out.
After coming from behind to win, the Knicks have to enter Game 2 believing they have more room for improvement and that may give them the spark to really put their Playoff experience on the table. That has always been important in the NBA and home teams that have won Game 1 have a very good record of backing that up with another win in Game 2.
Since 2016, Game 1 home winners are 31-14 against the spread in Game 2 and the momentum feels firmly in favour of the Knicks in this First Round Series. A stronger start will help and the home team may be ready to head across to Detroit with a big lead in the First Round Series later this week.
LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: This First Round Series was tipped to be a highly competitive affair and Game 1 may just underline how close things are going to be when the Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers meet.
It will feel like a blow to the road team that they were not able to convert the victory having led by double digits in the Fourth Quarter, but this is a veteran loaded Clippers roster and they will be looking to bounce back. James Harden had a big game, but foul trouble was an issue and a cleaner game could see the Clippers bounce back and square up the Series before heading home for two games.
It was far from a perfect game from the Denver Nuggets, the 2023 NBA Champions, but they found the right plays at the right time and eventually came through in Overtime. Russell Westbrook and Jamal Murray showed up late and both were important in helping the Nuggets come through with a very narrow win and that will have given the team plenty of confidence and belief.
Like the visitors, the Denver Nuggets have plenty of experience to call upon and that will help them, but both are veteran teams and so there is some concern about fatigue building up in Game 2. Both would have certainly hoped that Game 2 had been scheduled for Tuesday or Wednesday, but instead the Nuggets and Clippers meet again with a day of rest between games and in what is usually sapping conditions.
Adjustments will be made and Denver will take further encouragement from how well home teams have played in Game 2 after winning Game 1. However, the Clippers ended the season in the kind of form to think they can clean up one or two issues that will enable them to just ensure they do not blow another big lead.
You may think a narrow loss would negatively impact a team, but those playing after a defeat by less than 4 points have a 35-18-2 record against the spread in their next game. When those teams are set between - 5 and + 5 favourite/underdog, those bounce back teams have a 21-8-2 record against the spread and the Clippers may have the experience to become the latest to add to that trend.
The two teams should both have the confidence and experience to believe they can be stronger in Game 2 than they were in Game 1 and that should mean another competitive game, albeit one that ends in favour of the road team this time.
Tuesday 22nd April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 2 Pick: There is still a real feeling that this is going to be a First Round Series that will be played very competitively, despite the blowout loss suffered by the Milwaukee Bucks at the hands of the Indiana Pacers in Game 1.
A lack of scoring really hurt the Bucks and they are going to need the starters to step up if they want to return home with the Series level at 1-1.
Giannis Antetokounmpo did his part, but the remaining starters struggled to produced as well as expected and ultimately that led to a heavy loss. Adjustments will need to be made, although the Bucks may just benefit from having a returning Damian Lillard joining the rotation on Tuesday.
Even if Lillard is not up to his best level, which has to be expected after such a long time out of competitive action, overall the Bucks have to believe they are going to be better than what they showed in Game 1.
Adjustments will also be made by the Indiana Pacers, which is so important within any Playoff Series and the blowout win in Game 1 usually bodes well for how a team will perform in Game 2 of the First Round of the Playoff.
They may feel they can shoot more efficiently from the three point range, but the Pacers only allowed five turnovers in the win over Milwaukee and doing that again will be very challenging for the team. Games between these two have been hugely competitive all season and the blowout in Game 1 was atypical from what has been seen before.
There are some trends that favour the Pacers and them backing up their Game 1 win with another in Game 2 to take a firm grip of this Series. Blowout losses have tended to be followed by strong wins, but this Milwaukee Bucks team is better than what has been seen when they underachieved in the opener and they can produce a much more competitive performance all around.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: While the expectation is that this First Round Series will be won by the Oklahoma City Thunder, no one could have expected Game 1 to end in the manner it did.
At one stage it was trending to be the widest Playoff win of all time, and the 51 point win will only have given the Thunder that much more confidence.
Ja Morant has stated that his team will not play that badly again, but the real concern for the Grizzlies has to be that they lost a game in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander failed to perform at the level expected. Some of the poorer numbers are down to the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander was not needed for the entirety of Game 1, but the Grizzlies have to be worried that more is to come from the top player on the Thunder roster.
For the home team, the focus has to be on noting that they have only won one game in the Series and so much more work is still in front of them.
Some have already stated that the Thunder have to think they won Game 1 and not worry about the eventual margin with a single point win meaning the same as a 50 point win and there is going to be a test for Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 with things expected to be more competitive.
However, the Thunder have dominated this opponent throughout this season and that is much more difficult to ignore.
Covering this mark will not be easy, but the Thunder will look to continue the strong trend of how teams perform when set as home favourites of at least 8.5 points in the First Round of the Playoffs. Add in how much teams have struggled when playing after a loss of at least 12 points in the opening Round of the post-season and the feeling is that Memphis will be much closer in this one, but ultimately find the Thunder have continued their dominance of the meetings between the teams in recent times.
Wednesday 23rd April
Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: The screw was turned in the second half of Game 1 and the Boston Celtics were able to limit the Orlando Magic to just 37 points in what was ultimately a blowout win.
It was not the perfect night with an injury scare for Jayson Tatum, while neither he nor Jaylen Brown had the biggest impact on the game. However, that bodes well for the Celtics and the depth of this roster is hard to ignore with so many capable of getting hot from the three point line.
Expectations are that both Tatum and Brown have a bigger impact on Game 2 as long as both are ready to suit up.
And that just places the pressure on the Orlando Magic who have come through the Play In Tournament and who had been in fine form down the stretch in the regular season. Both Paolo Banchero and Frank Wagner had impacts in Game 1, but the Magic know they need others to step up in support and that remains the big issue with some of the key players on the roster absent through injury.
Slight improvements in the three point shooting will help and the Magic would also like to force their way onto the Free Throw line to see if they can just slow momentum in their favour.
All of that is going to be challenging having been heavily beaten at the TD Garden twice already this season and Orlando may struggle to remain competitive in this one too.
Backing the Under in Game 2 of the First Round Playoff Series when a team is set as a double digit favourite has been very fruitful in recent years, but this total is set below 200 and that is easily surpassed. However, the respect for the Boston Celtics Defensive unit means that market is avoided and instead backing the home team to secure another big win feels the better option.
Big home favourites continue to thrive in the First Round of the Playoff and, like the Oklahoma City Game 2 being played on Tuesday, it should be noted that teams playing after blowout losses have struggled to be competitive against the spread in their next game.
The number is similar to the one set for Game 1 and Boston may do enough to cover again.
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: Some in-game adjustments helped the Miami Heat get close to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Fourth Quarter, but ultimately the Number 1 Seed had a bit too much for the first Number 10 Ranked team to earn a spot in the Playoff through the Play In Tournament.
You have to believe Eric Spoelstra will be encouraged by some of what he saw in he loss in Game 1 and so taking a similar Defensive approach from the off might be the key for the Miami Heat.
Cleveland may have hit 18 three pointers in Game 1, but those arrived at a 42% mark and the Cavaliers may still be a little out of rhythm with that shot. Donovan Mitchell has returned after some time off and the rest of the starters had been given a break that meant not playing competitive Basketball for a week, while the Cavaliers were a little more inconsistent shooting from beyond the arc down the stretch.
Over their last five games, Cleveland have been hitting the three pointer at 40% and Spoelstra may want his Heat team to dare the hosts to beat them from the distance in Game 2. He will have been disappointed with the amount of points Cleveland were able to generate inside the paint in Game 1 and finding the right balance on this side of the court is the challenge.
Overall Miami did not play badly in Game 1- they had too many turnovers and that was added to being out-rebounded, which is why the game eventually got away from them.
They did shoot the ball well, but there is a First Round Playoff trend that works against them with teams that have shot at least 40% of three pointers and losing going 16-33-1 against the spread in their next game.
As is the case wth the other First Round Series that began on Sunday, we once again have a big home favourite (8.5 points or higher) and those continue to not only win games, but cover the spread too. And Miami are the latest team trying to bounce back from a blowout loss, which is another trend that works against them.
With a Cleveland team likely to be in better shape all around after putting a competitive game back under their legs, even the well-Coached Miami team may not have enough to keep up on the scoreboard for a second game in succession.
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 2 Pick: They may have had to enter the Play In Tournament to earn a place in the post-season, but no one wanted to see the veteran loaded Golden State Warriors.
Not only are they are experienced, but they have NBA Champions who know how to get things done at this time of the season and the addition of Jimmy Butler has only sparked the team further. Beating the Memphis Grizzlies last week meant avoiding the Oklahoma City Thunder in the First Round and the Warriors may just be capable of picking up momentum to produce a truly special run.
Opening up with a road win at the Houston Rockets means the Warriors have already achieved all they would have set out to do in the opening two games of this First Round Series. Now they have a chance to take a stranglehold of this Series by beating the younger, inexperienced Houston Rockets for a second time before returning home in a bid to close out a spot in the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Head Coach Steve Kerr will be making some adjustments to counter what is to come from the Houston Rockets, who have ended their five year wait to earn a spot in the Playoff by finishing with the Number 2 Seed.
Four straight losses have just slowed some of the momentum, but there will be no panic in the Houston locker room and they will know that Game 1 was a pretty poor overall performance. They struggled with the three point shot and had too many turnovers, but this team is better at the former and that is key to finding a way to turn things around and level up this First Round Series.
Houston did dominate the boards and they do feel they can be the more physical of the two teams, but a cleaner, more efficient game is needed and that is going to be challenging.
Down the stretch, the Golden State Warriors were playing about as well as anyone in the Western Conference and so the Seeding has to be ignored. They will certainly feel they have the players to make the big shots when needed, but there is a feeling that this may be job done for a veteran group and that the attention may already be on protecting home court.
The Rockets have beaten the Golden State Warriors twice at home during the regular season, including earlier this month as the latter were pushing for a place in the top six. With the Playoff atmosphere now being felt by the team, Houston should be better in Game 2 and this time they can win at home and cover the spread set.
Thursday 24th April
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Game 3 Pick: Blowing Game 1 in the manner they did will have had an impact on the young Detroit Pistons, but all credit needs to be given to the team for bouncing back as they did in Game 2.
For all of the ups and downs, the Pistons will have left New York feeling they have done what they would have wanted and that is having home court advantage through the remainder of the First Round Series.
It is all about 'holding serve' over the next few days for Detroit who will play Game 3 and Game 4 at home- they have a solid record against the New York Knicks, which will give them confidence, but there is no doubt that the road team will want to have a big reaction to a really disappointing overall effort in the Game 2 loss.
There was so much to dislike- dominated on the boards, too many turnovers and a really poor 10/35 shooting effort from the three point range all contributed to the narrow loss. Most worrying for fans was seeing Karl-Anthony Towns produce 10 points and 6 boards, the kind of Playoff performance that was far too common in his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Head Coach Tom Thibodeau made it clear that Mitchell Robinson had been given significant playing time for his Rebounding effort and KAT has something to prove here.
The feeling is that the Knicks may have won if Jalen Brunson had been given the support expected from Karl-Anthony Towns and so there is pressure on a player that was supposed to lift the Knicks forward when the trade was made in the off-season.
Both Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson had big outings in Game 2 and they will lead their respective teams again, but it is the performance of KAT that feels key.
There is room for improvement for the Pistons too having struggled with their own three pointers, but the intensity around the boards was impressive and dominating those numbers again will give the Pistons the advantage.
They are not in the best spot though, especially with a reaction expected from the Number 3 Seeded Knicks.
Game 3 hosts have not had a very good time in the First Round of the Playoffs, even if playing after a win in Game 2.
This is also a spread that is set within a small section where hosts have struggled- those favoured or set as the underdog of between plus and minus 4 points have produced a 7-19-1 record against the spread in Game 3 since 2017 and they are only 8-19 straight up.
The Pistons may feel best placed to overcome that trend having beaten the Knicks four times in the last five meetings between these teams, but New York have the Playoff experience to immediately recover home court advantage by winning this one on the road.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Pick: Even before the first tip off in this First Round Series, the feeling was that the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference would really enjoy the match up.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be grateful that they are facing the Memphis Grizzlies rather than the potentially awkward Golden State Warriors in the First Round and back to back dominant wins has pushed the Thunder 2-0 clear already.
It was not really making a big statement when Ja Morant announced that the Memphis Grizzlies would not play as poorly as they did in Game 1- the reality is they were beaten by historical levels in that 51 point loss and the only way was upwards from there.
However, the Grizzlies were not really that much more competitive in the blowout loss in Game 2 and it is going to take a monumental effort for Memphis to turn this Series around.
The real worry for Memphis has to be the fact they have lost both games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing near to the levels that he has shown all season. A player who averaged 32.7 points per game is shooting at 32.6% in this First Round Series and yet the Thunder have still crushed Memphis twice.
Expecting SGA to be quiet for the entirety of this Series is perhaps asking too much and the Oklahoma City Thunder will head into the next two games of this Series with the full belief of trying to complete passage into the Conference Semi Finals before heading home for some rest.
More adjustments will be made by the hosts, but this is a tough spot for Memphis who have lost all six games against the Number 1 Seed by double digits this season.
Teams have struggled to compete after blowout losses in the First Round of the Playoffs and even the change in venue may not change the fortunes of the Grizzlies.
Hosts that lost Game 2 have a 13-18 record against the spread in Game 3, while those given at least 4.5 points as a home underdog have a 7-12-1 record against the spread since 2013.
Those playing on the road and being asked to lay at least 4.5 points have a 37-18-1 record against the spread in the First Round of the Playoff and it feels silly to move away from the Oklahoma City Thunder now.
Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers Game 3 Pick: Both games in this First Round Series have come down to the wire, but the LA Clippers have stolen home court advantage away from the Denver Nuggets. They would have hoped to have won Game 1, but the Clippers showed some confidence in their own ability by doing enough to secure the win in Game 2.
Veteran players look healthy at a good time for the Clippers and the performances over the last couple of months makes them dangerous in the post-season.
Everything is about 'holding serve' over the next few days and making sure they return to Denver with a lead in the First Round Series and the LA Clippers will believe they are in a good position to do that at the Intuit Dome. They piled up the home wins to avoid falling into the Play In Tournament and the Clippers have to feel that the Denver Nuggets are not nearly as tough when playing on the road as they are in their historically strong home conditions.
There wasn't a significant difference between the home and road record in the regular season, but Denver need to find more from their depth if they are going to win this Series. The starters played well in Game 2 and Russell Westbrook had an influence from the bench, but the rest of the roster will find it that much tougher to perform on the road.
Losing an experienced Head Coach in Michael Malone will test the quality of adjustments that Denver can make having narrowly come up short in Game 2 and they are in a tough spot here.
Teams that won Game 2 and return home for Game 3 have not had the best record, but hosts favoured by at least 4.5 points have put together a 14-4 run against the spread since 2013. This is something that the Clippers can extend having yet put together a total game and they will certainly feel they have the momentum having looked the stronger team in both games to open this First Round Series.
Friday 25th April
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: Jayson Tatum was considered a doubt for Game 2 just twenty-four hours before tipoff having been hurt during Game 1, but without having to miss any playing time. The Boston Celtics know how important the star player is going to be to their chances of picking up another NBA Championship and it was decided that it would make most sense to give Jayson Tatum some rest time as he missed a Playoff game for the first time in his career.
The 9 point win looks closer than the way the game played out and the Boston Celtics are 2-0 ahead as the First Round Series moves to Florida for two game. In reality, this gives Boston an opportunity to have Tatum travel, but they perhaps will not use him in Game 3 and ensure he is fully resting the wrist issue picked up in the Game 1 win.
Jaylen Brown should be given credit for stepping up having produced more than double the points he had in Game 1 as he made sure the absence of Jayson Tatum was not felt too keenly. Of course the Celtics have plenty on the roster who are more than capable on their day and it was balanced around Brown, albeit with room for improvement in Game 3.
They did not shoot the three ball very well in Game 2 and not as they did in their Game 1 blowout win, but it was still enough to deal with Orlando who are now under some pressure.
Paolo Banchero and Frank Wagner are trying to do what they can, but it is clear that there hasn't been enough support around them. In saying that, you do have to wonder if both players need to have more belief in their team-mates that are healthy to compete with the two combining for more than half of the shots taken by Orlando for a second game in a row.
Defensive adjustments made by Boston saw them double and sometimes triple-teaming Banchero to get the ball out of his hands, while the struggles from three point range meant the Celtics could stick with the plan.
Playoff atmosphere can be tough for players to deal with, especially on the road, but role players have tended to be much better in their home environment. That is going to be encouraging for the Magic, who beat Boston in both home games in the regular season, but this is not a good spot for those teams that may feel overmatched in the First Round Series.
Game 3 hosts playing after a loss have a poor record, while those being given at least 4.5 points as the underdog have a 7-12-1 record against the spread in this spot. Overall road favourites of at least 4.5 points have a very productive win-loss record against the spread in the First Round of the Playoff and it feels like the Boston Celtics can take firm control of the Series by moving onto the hill of progressing to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Pick: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity, but going to the well one more time with the Milwaukee Bucks is the plan in this First Round Series.
Truthfully they never looked like getting near the Indiana Pacers in Game 1, but the Milwaukee Bucks may feel they missed an opportunity having dragged themselves back to within 2 points in Game 2 and with under three minutes remaining. Two huge shots from the Pacers killed the momentum though and it was Indiana who covered for a second time in the First Round Series.
They now look in a very strong position with a 2-0 lead before heading to Milwaukee, but the Pacers still have some questions to answer as they bid to at least match the run to the Eastern Conference Finals produced last year. Despite moving through two Playoff Series, the Pacers finished with a 2-7 road record in the post-season and facing challenges on the road was the story of the regular season.
Indiana were beaten twice on the road in Milwaukee during the regular season and there is going to be a hostile atmosphere waiting for them after two chippy games already in the Series.
However, the Pacers will take great confidence from the fact their depth has really shone through and they have literally led for the entirety of both games played. That has to give the players a lot of confidence, while the Pacers will be full of beans after two very strong shooting displays and being really good with taking care of the turnovers in Game 2.
All of the pressure is on Head Coach Doc Rivers as he looks to make the adjustments to turn things back around for the Milwaukee Bucks. Having Damian Lillard back in the lineup is very important, and the Bucks will feel it was the turnovers that ultimately cost them in Game 2 as they looked to level this First Round Series.
Cleaning those up is important, although Milwaukee are in an unenviable spot having shot the three ball well enough in Game 2 and losing, which has proven to be a tough spot to bounce back from in the First Round of the Playoff. Those teams are only 16-33-1 against the spread in their following game since 2016, while Game 3 hosts playing after a defeat have also struggled.
However, the Bucks have been set as a big favourite and those Game 3 hosts are the ones that have thrived in recent times with those teams going 14-4 against the spread since 2014. The home environment should be a big help and you have to wonder if the Indiana role players can be as effective in these kind of Playoff atmospheres rather than those played at home.
With those two home regular wins behind them, the Bucks just perhaps need to take care of the ball a bit more to turn the tables on Indiana. Damian Lillard should be better with a competitive game under his feet and the Milwaukee Bucks may do enough to secure a cover and overcome some of the negative trends that a team in their situation have previously struggled with.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: When looking at the match ups before the First Round began, this Series had the potential to go very long and with the underdog likely to have a bite to match the bark.
All doubt about that was removed after Game 1 when the Minnesota Timberwolves trampled the Los Angeles Lakers to steal away home court advantage immediately. As good as they were in Game 1, the Timberwolves struggled massively in Game 2 and the shooting numbers are night and day between the two games with the Lakers having enough to level the Series before we move to Minnesota for two games.
The question now becomes which Minnesota Timberwolves team will show up? Will it be the team that had an eye-watering 21 three pointers in Game 1 having produced at 50% from the distance or the one that scored 5 threes in Game 2 at 20%? There was also a big difference on the boards having had ten more in Game 1 compared with Game 2 and some of the credit should of course be given to the Defensive intensity produced by the Los Angeles Lakers.
This First Round Series has been levelled up thanks to a more all-around performance from Luka Doncic who had similar points, but a lot more assists to take the Lakers forward. His experiences of playing the Timberwolves in the post-season last year will help, although Doncic will also be looking for a bit more support from LeBron James and Austin Reaves.
Despite the win, the Lakers will also seem room for improvement having also struggled with their three point shooting, although they may feel their overall level has been much steadier through two games. This was a team that finished the regular season looking very capable of having a deep Playoff run and the Lakers will look to take back home court advantage over the next few days.
It is this spot that may suit them best to do that.
As mentioned in other previews, Game 3 hosts have historically struggled and most when playing after a Game 2 defeat, while those set between 4 point plus or minus spreads have a 7-19-1 record against the spread in this spot since 2017. That cannot be ignored and will be a challenge for Minnesota to overcome, and memories of Luka Doncic having 65 points and 21 assists in the first two games at Target Center to open the Western Conference Finals will not have been forgotten.
Pre-Luka Doncic Los Angeles Lakers did lose twice here in the regular season, but they may be in a spot to do much better in Game 3 of this First Round Series.
Saturday 26th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: You always know that a Miami Heat team Coached by Eric Spoelstra will never feel beaten and the current roster showed all of their character, grit and determination as they battled back against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2.
Relentlessness on the Defensive side of the court helped the Heat close a huge gap that had developed during the first half and they moved into the Fourth Quarter believing they could earn the upset and level the Series.
Ultimately Donovan Mitchell showed why the Cleveland Cavaliers finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference by taking over and making some key buckets to prevent the momentum completely turning against this team. He is one of a number of starters capable of doing that and the Cavaliers will be very tough to stop in this First Round Series if they even find a slight bit of consistency shooting the three ball.
You could criticise some of the decision making in the Third Quarter, but the Cavaliers will feel pretty good overall after securing the victory. They are now 2-0 ahead in the Series and the Cavaliers are in a very good spot to extend that lead in Game 3.
Everything we have seen from the Miami Heat deserves respect, but the reality is that they do not have the same qualities as the top Eastern Conference team and especially without Jimmy Butler. The team have shown they can come together and have really good patches, but putting a whole game together is tough against an opponent like Cleveland and you have to favour the Cavaliers to take a complete hold of the Series.
The Heat will look to attack the Cavaliers when they have the ball Offensively and just see if they can rattle the top Seed, but the consistency may not be there to do that without a lead figure.
Miami are in a tough spot as a Game 3 host coming in after a defeat, while they are set as a big home underdog which has not been a great position in which to cover. Encouragement can be taken from how the Memphis Grizzlies played in Game 3 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they were eventually beaten and the Miami Heat may suffer something similar in pushing the Cavaliers, but ultimately coming up short.
Four straight wins have been produced by Cleveland over the Heat and that momentum looks difficult to shift now.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 4 Pick: Having one day rest after capitulating in Game 3 and allowing the second biggest comeback in NBA Playoff history would have immediately been a huge challenge to overcome for the Number 8 Seed Memphis Grizzlies.
However, that challenge feels so much tougher without Ja Morant who was injured in Game 3 and his departure felt like a key moment in which the game, and ultimately the First Round Series, turned in favour of the Oklahoma City Thunder for good.
It had been a game in which Memphis moved into a 29 point lead when Ja Morant was injured and the Grizzlies could not do much without their top Offensive player in the second half. The Oklahoma City Thunder deserve some credit for that, but you cannot shake the feeling that everything could have been different if Morant was available for the entirety of that Thursday meeting.
He has yet to be ruled out of Game 4, but the oddsmakers are not expecting Morant to suit up and the Thunder will not want to have to play a Game 5 at home. There is still some room for improvement for the Number 1 Seed, who are going to face much sterner challenges as the Playoffs continue, but they have broken the back of the Series and the broomsticks should be out on Saturday with the short turnaround between Game 3 and Game 4.
Hosts who have been given at least 3.5 points as the underdog in Game 4 have a poor 13-24-1 record against the spread since 2013, although Memphis are receiving plenty of points here. Even then, it is hard to know how they find the scoring power to keep this one close against a Number 1 Seed that is looking to close the Series out and earn significant rest and preparation time before the Western Conference Semi Final Series begin.
Top seeds in close out games are 17-7 against the spread in the last twenty-four tries in the First Round, while teams trailing 0-3 are just 15-20-1 against the spread in Game 4 in this Round.
Covering this huge number will not be easy, but the momentum is with the Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies may struggle after the deflation of losing Game 3 in the manner they did and without their top player suiting up.
Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers Game 4 Pick: The Denver Nuggets came out in Game 3 smoking with almost everything hitting over the first eight minutes of the First Quarter. Once the LA Clippers got over the initial punch in the mouth, the hosts dominated and they are now looking to move into a 3-1 lead before the Series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5.
Almost all of the adjustments have to be made by the Denver Nuggets, and that is not going to be easy without a permanent Head Coach following the firing of Michael Malone earlier this month.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are contributing as expected, but the reality is that the Clippers could not care less about that.
Instead the focus has been on shutting down the complementary players and this Clippers Defensive unit have shown they can do that very well. Aaron Gordon had a very strong opening Quarter in Game 3, but was largely ineffective after that and the 34 point win produced by the Clippers was thanks to shutting down everyone that was not playing with Jokic or Murray written on the back of the jersey.
Changing that momentum will be tough for the Nuggets who could be without Russell Westbrook and Michael Porter Jr for Game 4 and that would really shift this Series in favour of the Clippers. For many LA fans, the feeling has been that their team has been the stronger in all three games played anyway, but the depth of the Nuggets roster will be compromised significantly if they have to go in short-handed for Game 4.
There is a really nice balance to what the Clippers are doing right now and none of the team scored more than 21 points in the blowout win on Thursday to underline that statement. With the experience on the roster, all the fans will want is for the Clippers to have a healthy run for as long as they are in the post-season and you just never know how far they could potentially go.
Everything points to the Clippers taking that 3-1 lead in this Series as long as they continue to focus.
Teams playing after blowout losses have continued to struggle in the First Round and the Denver Nuggets may have issues changing that if they are not able to get the role players going.
Denver also shot 40% from the field in the Game 3 loss and teams that have shot less than 41% in the First Round have followed up with a really poor 52-77-3 record against the spread before the post-season began in 2025. There just feels like a lot for the Nuggets to do against a Clippers team playing with the Defensive intensity we have seen and with the Offensive players capable of making the big plays.
Spreading the ball around has been hugely important for the home team and the Clippers may move to the brink of earning a spot in the Western Conference Semi Finals with another strong win at the Intuit Dome.
Sunday 27th April
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Game 4 Pick: There were plenty of late game shenanigans in Game 3 that frustrated both the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks, but ultimately it was the road team who took back home court advantage. Now they go for a 3-1 lead before heading back to Madison Square Garden as the Knicks prepare for a second game in the hostile environment being created by the Detroit fans.
In an ideal world, the Knicks will be able to close the Series before having to head back here, but they will be expecting a reaction from the Detroit Pistons after the narrow Game 3 win.
The Pistons made some big runs in the narrow loss, but they were undone by a balanced New York Offensive unit. Adjustments that need to be made by the home team is finding a way to get Malik Beasley back in rhythm and produce from the three point arc as he has for much of the season.
Those points could be crucial in what is expected to be another tough, gritty game and the New York Knicks have to be preparing for a big effort from the Pistons to avoid falling into that desperate 3-1 down spot.
We saw in Game 2 that Detroit can bounce back from defeats, while those teams who have suffered losses by less than 4 points have recovered to produce a 35-18-2 record against the spread in their next game. If they are set between 5 points as a favourite or an underdog, those teams have a 21-8-2 record against the spread in their next game and so the Pistons have a bit of history on their side.
Hosts in Game 4 of the First Round of the Playoffs that have been set between 3 points as a favourite and underdog have a 20-9-1 record against the spread since 2013 and the Pistons have matched up well with the New York Knicks all season. If they can get that three point going through Beasley, the Pistons may be ready to head to Madison Square Garden with the First Round Series tied.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: Game 3 was close right down to the wire, but a late surge from the Minnesota Timberwolves saw them pull away from the Los Angeles Lakers and take a 2-1 lead in this First Round Series.
Game 4 is played with just one day of rest between games and that has to be an advantage for Minnesota, especially if Luka Doncic remains limited.
A sickness made it a tough night for Luka Doncic on Friday and the limited recovery time is far from ideal. Adding to that is the amount of minutes the starters had to log in Game 3 as they looked to help the Lakers retake home court advantage through the First Round Series and now there has to be a serious concern that the Number 3 Seed will be on the brink of being eliminated next time they play in front of the home fans.
So many numbers pointed to Minnesota in Game 3 and it is perhaps a surprise that the Lakers were able to hang in and almost pull the outright upset. That effort to keep the game close and bid to take the lead in the First Round Series has to have an impact in Game 4, especially with the limited time of recovery, and the Timberwolves look to have all of the momentum.
Small home favourites have struggled in the First Round of the Playoffs in recent history, but Minnesota covered this number in Game 3 and they may have the momentum to do the same here.
All of the pressure is on the Los Angeles Lakers to pick themselves up and that is going to be tough with a short rotation being used.
You can never rule out the likes of Luka Doncic and LeBron James considering the depth of Playoff experience both have and that is perhaps contributing to a smaller than expected spread in this Game 4. If the Timberwolves produce a similar level to Game 3, they should have the edges to find a late run to pull clear again and they might be ready to move through to the Western Conference Semi Finals again.
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic Game 4 Pick: The players and staff have not been happy with the physical approach that the Orlando Magic have taken to this Series, one that has seen a number of Boston Celtics players dealing with ailments. Jayson Tatum was back after missing Game 2, but Jaylen Brown has suffered an injury that may cost him a chance of suiting up for Game 4, while Jrue Holiday was a late scratch.
Adding to the frustration is that the Celtics were extremely cold in the Third Quarter of Game 3 having dominated the first half and that proved to be costly in a narrow loss.
The Celtics will not panic, and that has to be expected from the defending Champions- they will not be too concerned about the one day of rest between games either and the only focus for Boston is to secure a 3-1 lead to take back home and get this Series out of the way as soon as possible.
As mentioned, narrow losers have bounced back incredibly effectively in their next game in the First Round of the Playoffs, while big road favourites have enjoyed this Round prior to this season. We have not seen those road favourites dominating yet in 2025, but Boston will be encouraged by the position they had got into and have to believe they are not going to be as poor shooting the three ball as they were in Game 3.
Orlando will do what Orlando do- they are going to want to bully the Number 2 Seed and see if they can rattle them by playing hard and knocking bodies around. The refs have had their attention called to some of the physicality being used, which Boston feel has crossed a line, but the Celtics are also up for a fight and they are looking to produce a cleaner game all around.
This should be enough to secure the win and the Celtics are playing well enough to cover if the three pointers are landing as expected.
Hosts that are given at least 3.5 points as the underdog in Game 4 of the First Round of the Playoffs have a 13-24-1 record against the spread since 2013 and the Boston Celtics can respond in the manner expected of Champions.
Monday 28th April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: All three games in this First Round Series have been won by the Number 1 Seed and each by at least a nine point margin. The blowout win in Game 3 has pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to a single win from progressing through to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals and they would love to join the Oklahoma City Thunder in becoming a top Seed sweeping through to the next Round.
The performance in Game 3 was particularly impressive without Darius Garland and the Cavaliers will be comfortable on Monday, even if they have to play without Garland again. He is trending in a positive direction in terms of availability, but the Cavaliers showed a very different way in which they could dominate the Miami Heat by using big men to control the paint and open up the shooting lanes for those outside of the three point arc.
You have to believe there will be a reaction from the Miami Heat, but they have looked overmatched in the Series without a top player who is willing to take the game on his back.
The Heat shot the ball pretty well in the Game 3 defeat, which has been a tough spot to deal with when doing so and still losing.
However, it was an inability to prevent the Cavaliers from controlling the rebounding numbers that really hurt Miami, while they made a few more mistakes compared with the road team. Even cleaning those up may not be enough to push this Series back to Cleveland and teams that have fallen 0-3 behind have not had a very good record in covering the spread as they bid to avoid elimination for the first time.
Miami will fight hard and they will try and do whatever they can to avoid an exit in front of their own fans, but it has been a tough Series and Cleveland have not had to be at their ultimate best to win the first three games. A strong start is expected from the hosts, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are capable of keeping tabs with the Heat before taking over the game and they may have the depth and shooting capabilities to cover this line.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 4 Pick: They had a big lead and the Golden State Warriors had been struggling without Jimmy Butler in the lineup, but underestimating the experience of the Number 7 Seed would be foolish. Steph Curry and company were able to rally and ultimately beat the Houston Rockets to take a 2-1 lead in this First Round Series and they are hoping that Butler will be available in their bid to move into a commanding 3-1 lead.
While there will be some disappointment in the performance, the Houston Rockets have to be confident that they have more to offer after bouncing back from a Game 1 defeat to level the Series before both teams shifted to the home of the Warriors for two games.
Neither team shot the three ball very well in Game 3, but the Rockets will be more disappointed with their overall shooting display and that puts them in a pressurised spot. Teams that have struggled to shoot the ball have really had problems in their next game in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs and that is something that an inexperienced Houston team will have to make adjustments to try and turn things around.
They will still be encouraged by some of the Defensive work that has been produced, but Houston need to find more consistency when they have the ball in their own hands. Returning home at 2-2 is a massive difference compared with being 3-1 behind and Houston will be tasked with putting it all on the line on Monday.
Jimmy Butler does look to be trending towards a return before the Series moves back to Houston and that is important for the Warriors. They need players to step up alongside Steph Curry in their bid to move clear of the higher Seeded opponent, but the feeling is that another tight, competitive game is set to be played out.
Despite the ability of both teams to stack the three pointers together, the total line is extremely low and that is because the layers are expecting both Defensive units to be on top. The Rockets have based their season on the strong depth that can be called upon, but it was the role players who let them down in the defeat in Game 3 and those will be tasked with turning things around.
Playing on the road always makes things more difficult for the role players, but Houston have shown they can recover from a disappointing defeat for the second time in this First Round Series.
MY PICKS: 19/04 Milwaukee Bucks + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/04 Detroit Pistons + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Los Angeles Lakers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
20/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
20/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/04 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/04 LA Clippers - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/04 Milwaukee Bucks + 4.5 Points @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
22/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/04 Boston Celtics - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/04 Houston Rockets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 New York Knicks - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
24/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/04 LA Clippers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/04 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
25/04 Los Angeles Lakers + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
26/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 13.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/04 LA Clippers - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
27/04 Detroit Pistons - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Minnesota Timberwolves - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
28/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/04 Houston Rockets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
First Round: 13-15, - 3.13 Units (28 Units Staked, - 11.18% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
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