As mentioned at the time, the decision was made to wait until the Monte Carlo Masters before the opening clay court Tennis Picks of the season would be made and that was mainly so the events on the European red dirt would begin. There have been events in the United States, which always feel like clay courts that play a lot differently than those in the build up towards the French Open, while the ATP events last week were at the 250 level and they were events which would give us some early indication of the form of those much lower in the World Rankings.
The Monte Carlo Masters is perhaps not seen in the same light as Madrid and Rome in the preparation for the French Open, but a very solid field has come together this week. For many it will be the first clay court action for several months in a competitive environment, and that can lead to some early upsets, but the picturesque setting should mean fans will arrive at the tournament in as good spirits as most of the contenders.
Most of the First Round has been completed through the first two days at the event, although there are still some opening matches to be played on Tuesday. On the same day, the top Seeds join the Monte Carlo party and this should be another solid week on the Tour for those on the ATP side of the table.
Stuttgart will be the first big event for those on the WTA Tour with that 500 level event being played next week ahead of the Madrid 1000 events to round out the month. All eyes will be sharpening up towards that second Grand Slam of the season with the men's tournament looking pretty wide open and Iga Swiatek still being the player to beat in the women's event.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: The last two times these players have met on the Tour have been huge battles with both Jordan Thompson and Stefanos Tsitsipas working their way to a victory apiece. However, both were played on the hard courts and there feels like a big advantage in favour of the higher Ranked player when it comes to matches on the clay.
Furthering that advantage is this Second Round match being played in Monte Carlo where Stefanos Tsitsipas has really enjoyed his time.
His 22-3 record is one thing, but it should also be noted that Stefanos Tsitsipas has won the title in three of the last four years after returning to the event in 2021. The only exception was a Quarter Final defeat to Taylor Fritz in 2023, but the World Number 8 made up for that by winning the title in 2024 with wins over the likes of Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner on the way.
He was born in Greece and represents that nation, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is clearly very comfortable in Monte Carlo with this being his main home these days. That has been reflected in his level of performance at the event and since 2021, Tsitsipas has dominated most aspects of his tennis when playing at this Masters event.
The serve has been very strong, although the key to the successes that Stefanos Tsitsipas has had is the returning numbers with 37% of return games ending in a break of serve in his favour. Numbers on both the serve and return move even more in his favour when only considering matches against players Ranked lower than him and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be seen as a strong favourite, even in his first match back on the clay courts.
A couple of disappointing efforts in Indian Wells and Miami may have knocked the confidence, but being back on the red dirt will really help Stefanos Tsitsipas.
His opponent has come through a First Round match, so is adjusted to the conditions, but you have to consider Jordan Thompson as a pretty poor clay courter. The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston last week, and he had lost sixteen of seventeen clay court matches played on European soil before his First Round win.
Jordan Thompson can take confidence from that win, but his numbers have been really poor on the surface and going up against someone as comfortable on this surface as Stefanos Tsitsipas makes it hard to believe the former can be competitive.
The serve is a big weapon for Thompson on most surfaces, but that is not the case on the clay where patience is as important as power. Ultimately his return has also suffered with opponents capable of pushing him around the court and this may be a rare match against Stefanos Tsitsipas where the World Number 38 is unable to challenge the top ten player as he would like.
It is a big spread for a first match on the surface, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is capable of covering in surroundings where he has always felt right at home.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
2025 Season: 68-51, + 13.08 Units (157 Units Staked, + 8.33% Yield)
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