Matching the Playoff run through the 2023 tournament was always going to be challenging, but back to back years with a profit returned cannot be ignored.
After a long regular season, and the second NBA Cup, we are back into the post-season beginning with the Play In Tournament from Tuesday through to Friday. We have seen the opening schedule for the Game 1s of the First Round with four to be played on Saturday and four to be played on Sunday and it is no surprise that the four teams that are able to come through the Play In Tournament will be featured on the second of those days.
Of course the final two places will not be decided until Friday and so those two teams will be the ones with the least amount of recovery and preparation before the Playoffs get underway, but that is the downside of either finishing as a the Number 9 or 10 Seed in either Conference or having lost the battle between the Number 7 and Number 8 Seeds.
Those opening games between the highest Seeds involved in the Play In Tournament have been set for Tuesday with the first elimination games played on Wednesday.
The regular season may still be tweaked in the years ahead to ensure games matter even more than they do now, although that does not mean it was a year devoid of storylines.
Even now, the trade made by the Dallas Mavericks to move Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers is being felt throughout the League and the former of those teams has to find a way to win two games and earn a spot in the First Round of the Playoffs. Anything less than that will have Mavericks fans wondering whether there should be firings in the executive areas of the team, namely Nico Harrison, especially as it would have happened less than twelve months since Dallas were playing in the NBA Finals.
It is a big week for the likes of the Golden State Warriors and Orlando Magic, two teams in each Conference that will certainly feel they can give the top Seeds something to think about if they are able to make it through the Play In Tournament. Others may value the experience that participating in the First Round of the Playoffs will give them, even if they are not expected to have a big impact in the Playoff and so there will be plenty of motivation on display when the first phase of the post-season this week.
As in previous years, the First Round Picks for the NBA Playoffs will be split into a couple of threads, but the first of those will be published on Friday evening/Saturday morning.
Before that, the focus is on the Play In Tournament with selections added to this thread over the next four days as the match ups are set.
Tuesday 15th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The regular season series may have been split 2-2, but you cannot place a lot of stock in the Atlanta Hawks win over the Orlando Magic on the final day of the regular season. The Seeds for the Play In Tournament had already been set by then and both the Hawks and Magic knew they would be meeting in Orlando in the first of the Play In games with the teams holding the Number 7 and 8 Seeds.
The reason the Orlando Magic are hosting is thanks to a home win over the Atlanta Hawks last week and that was a game that had meant a lot to both teams.
It will give the Magic the mental edge in this game where the winner will move into the bracket for the Playoff with a Series against the Boston Celtics to come. The losing team will have a second opportunity to earn a spot in the post-season later in the week when hosting the winner of the Chicago-Miami Play In Tournament game, but neither Orlando nor Atlanta will be thinking about anything other than winning this one.
The top two Seeds in the Eastern Conference are both looking very strong and will be tough to beat, but the Orlando Magic may be the most dangerous opponent to meet. Injuries are perhaps the main reason Orlando finished 3 games out of the top six in the Eastern Conference with the likes of Frank Wagner and Paolo Banchero missing significant time during the regular season, but both have been influential to earning the top spot in the Play In Tournament.
Jalen Suggs is missing, which is a blow, but the Orlando Magic have continued to play strong Defensive basketball and that is expected to be key in this game. When beating the Atlanta Hawks at home last week, Orlando were a bit more careful with the ball, but the key was matching the three point output of the Hawks on the night.
They may need more of the same in this one with Atlanta still looking like a team that can rack up the points on any given night. Trae Young has shown his ability to perform in the pressurised environment of the post-season plenty of times and the Hawks finished the season in very consistent form on the Offensive side of the court, although they will have to respect how well Orlando have played against that.
There is also pressure on the Hawks Offensively as they have not performed as well on the other side of the court throughout the season. This Orlando team may not be that convincing Offensively, but they have those players like Banchero and Frank Wagner capable of doing enough and that is how this opening Play In Tournament may end up landings.
With the Magic better at home, they can do enough Offensively to keep the Hawks under some pressure and that should allow the Defensive schemes to just pressurise the road team to force up some shots. As long as the Magic continue to challenge on the boards as they did last week, Orlando can find a way to win this game and cover the spread set.
The Number 7 Seed is 6-2 in the Play In Tournament since this format was introduced and the Orlando Magic can extend that further with the win and cover.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Pick: They were one of a handful of teams that had so much riding on the final regular season game, but the Golden State Warriors were beaten at home in Overtime by the LA Clippers. Despite being one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the All Star Game, that defeat has cost the Warriors an opportunity to take their place in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs and instead they enter the Play In Tournament.
This is still a veteran team that will feel they can have a major impact in the post-season, but the key for the Warriors may be winning this first of potentially two Play In Tournament games. Winning this one would mean facing the Houston Rockets in the First Round, which feels a much more winnable Series than having to go in with the Number 1 Seed and title favourites Oklahoma City Thunder.
Head Coach Steve Kerr will not be too concerned, but it does feel the Number 7 Seed in the Playoff will offer Golden State a much better chance to really build momentum. With players like Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler in the rotation, the Warriors are going to be very dangerous if they can play their way into the First Round.
This opening Play In Tournament game sees the Warriors hosting the Memphis Grizzlies, who had a late, disappointing collapse in their own bid to earn a top six finish in the tough Western Conference. Memphis did win four of their last six games, but consecutive defeats to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets saw those two teams earn one of the top six places and with Memphis now scrambling for a spot in the First Round.
The losing team is likely going to be a favourite in the last elimination game later this week, but having to face the Thunder in the First Round instead of the Rockets will mean there is plenty of motivation to avoid that pressurised final game.
With Ja Morant in the lineup, there has not been a lot wrong with the Memphis Offensive approach down the stretch, although this is a tough test for them against the Golden State Defense. It becomes that much more challenging on the road and the Grizzlies may be put under pressure by the continued absence of Jaylen Wells.
His absence has really been felt on the Defensive side of the court and that may be the case again on Tuesday as they prepare to face an opponent that won three of the four regular season games. That includes the Golden State Warriors winning as a road favourite at the Memphis Grizzlies earlier this month when Steph Curry put up 52 points and was well backed by Jimmy Butler (27 points).
This feels like a decent enough match up for the Warriors and they should have had ample time to recover emotionally and physically from the Overtime loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That game was played in the afternoon and this one is set for Tuesday evening so there will be no excuses for Golden State as they look to avoid an elmination from this Play In Tournament format for the third time in five years.
Last year they were beaten as the Number 10 Seed, while losses to the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies saw the Warriors eliminated in 2021. It has been a few seasons, but revenge can be earned for that home defeat in 2021 with a strong victory over Memphis to take their place as the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference Playoff bracket.
Wednesday 16th April
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The regular season has been completed and we move into a portion of the schedule where experience can be more valuable than outright talent.
The experience edge has to be with the Miami Heat in the first elimination game played in the Play In Tournament in 2025 when the Number 10 Seed visit the Chicago Bulls. However, it is the Number 9 Seeded Bulls hosting this game and they will point out that they have won all three regular season games between these rivals and all have been played since February.
That includes the Bulls beating the Miami Heat by 8 points last week, which is effectively why Chicago are hosting rather than travelling to South Florida. In saying that, the situation is a bit different in this Play In Tournament game compared with the three regular season games and that is because the Bulls have been set as the favourite, albeit narrow favourite, for the first time.
Players and fans will know that and that does build pressure with a sense of expectation around the team.
Trades were made by both Chicago and Miami during the regular season which will have dampened enthusiasm for a deep post-season run and both know that their only opponent in the First Round is the Number 1 Seed Cleveland Cavaliers. Even reaching that Round will mean winning two games in a row this week, but the focus has to be on Wednesday when the 'win or go home' state first comes up.
Seeding has tended to be important in the opening Play In Tournament games and the Number 9 Seed has a 6-2 record against the Number 10 Seed. That includes Chicago winning as a host in 2024, while in 2023 the Bulls were one of the Number 10 Seeds that have secured a road upset to move through.
In saying that, it will not have been lost on anyone that both the 2023 and 2024 Play In Tournament runs ended in the Number 8 Seed Game and both times the Chicago Bulls have fallen at the hands of the Miami Heat.
This is going to be a mental factor that the Bulls have to overcome if they are going to progress and earn one more shot at taking their place in the post-season.
Chicago will need their key players to be healthy and all of the talk in the City is about Josh Giddey and his availability after it was announced he has been dealing with tendinitis issue that could affect his three point shooting capabilities. Like many of the starters, he was rested at times down the stretch in order to be ready to compete and his status is going to be important.
The expectation is that he will suit up and this is a Bulls team that have dominated those they will have expected to beat in recent games. However, the team have struggled against the top teams and so anything more than a First Round Playoff run would be seen as a huge success.
They will be able to attack a Miami team that have not been as strong since trading Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors, but a team that could benefit from the development some of the younger players have had. Like Chicago, the Heat were focused on the Play In Tournament when concluding the regular season and they will be confident that they can create the situations to hurt a Bulls team missing some of their better Defensive talent.
However, the Heat no longer have that go-to player who can take a post-season game over, while the team lost four of their last six games to close out the regular season. When they played here last week, the Heat actually won the turnover battle, but that was still not enough to secure the victory and Josh Giddey's availability would see this game lean in favour of the hosts.
This is not a big spread so it is reasonable to point out that the Heat have struggled as road underdogs with a 6-14 record in twenty games played in that spot. It is the first time they are being given points against Chicago this season, but those three regular season wins have to count for something and recent history continues to give the Number 9 Seed the advantage in this elimination Play In Tournament game.
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings Pick: Both of these teams made big moves by trading away their best Guard ahead of the trade deadline, but there is little doubt that the biggest noise continues to be around the one that the Dallas Mavericks made.
Most teams may have shopped around for the best haul when talking about moving a potentially generational talent, but Nico Harrison has been hugely criticised for not only deciding that the Mavericks are better off without Luke Doncic. Furthering the disgust of the fans has been the news that Harrison had focused only on Anthony Davis as the trade piece he wanted back and so Dallas quietly moved behind the scenes to make a really poor trade with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Poor for the Mavericks, not for the Number 3 Seeded Lakers.
This is going to go down as a historically poor trade and even winning the NBA Championship may not be enough to excuse Nico Harrison's thinking.
The reality is that the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA Finals last year with Luka Doncic a huge piece of that run, but this year they have almost backed into the Play In Tournament and Kyrie Irving has been injured and ruled out for the remainder of the season. Many were baffled that Harrison was so keen to bring in injury-prone Anthony Davis and that is how it has worked out with Davis missing considerable time, although available for this Play In Tournament game.
When the Sacramento Kings moved De'Aaron Fox days after the Doncic trade, it barely made a blip on the radar that was still shaking by what Dallas had done.
The Kings have not exactly been flying since their own trade, but they have been solid and they look to have a team that can produce too much scoring for the current Dallas Mavericks roster. Being at home is another advantage, while the Kings have won both regular season games against the Mavericks since February.
Four losses in five games to round out the regular season offers little encouragement for fans of the Dallas Mavericks and they are likely going to need some fortune if they are going to prolong their season for a few more days. Ultimately they will need the Sacramento shooters to have a poor evening shooting the ball if the Mavericks are going to be able to impose their size on this Play In Tournament game, but that feels like a big ask and Sacramento may have too much.
Sacramento blew out the Golden State Warriors in this exact same spot twelve months ago and there is a chance that this gets out of hand for the Dallas Mavericks.
In recent games, the Dallas Mavericks have been inconsistent when it comes to shooting the three point shot and there is every chance this game becomes ugly if they are being forced to throw up too many of those shots. They are also playing a Kings team that have been pretty good Defensively over the last couple of weeks and one that has the Offensive talent to really push the pace against their opponent.
Nico Harrison is going to have some big questions to answer from those above him if the Mavericks are bounced out early having reached the NBA Finals in 2024, but that looks the only likely outcome of this elimination game. Fans will be wondering what may have been if someone could have stopped the trade that rocked the NBA world, and that may become even more painful to watch and/or read if Dallas do not make the First Round of the Playoff and the Los Angeles Lakers have the kind of run that many feel they can.
Friday 18th April
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: These two teams could not be heading into this lasr Play In Tournament game in different moods, but the results since the introduction of this stage of the post-season have perhaps been surprising.
You may anticipate that the team that won the first game would have the momentum in the Play In Tournament, but it is the higher Seed that lost the opening Tournament game who have won five of the eight elimination games played. That includes winning the last four in a row and so it cannot be underestimaed the edge home advantage can give any team.
The Miami Heat have earned their place in this Play In Tournament game by crushing the Chicago Bulls on the road and they are just the third Number 10 Seed that have made it through to the Number 8 Seed game. The previous two were both beaten and Miami will know that it is going to be a challenge for them to continue producing on the Offensive side of the court at the high level that they have been.
Facing the Atlanta Hawks, who were blown out by the Orlando Magic on Tuesday, will give Miami the mental edge after winning the last two regular season games between these rivals. However, both were at home and the Heat have lost twice in this Arena already this season.
Miami came out very quickly against the Chicago Bulls and then suffocated them Defensively by holding them to just 90 points. This has to give the Heat plenty of reason to believe they can win here and this is a team that will look to the strong Defensive play to spark what they do Offensively with turnovers the key.
There is no doubting that the Miami Heat have been shooting the ball well in recent games and they can put some pressure on the Atlanta Hawks, although there are players in the home uniform who will also feel they can make a big Defensive impact on the game.
A concern has to be that Atlanta struggled to deal with the Orlando Magic Defensive schemes on Tuesday, even before Trae Young was ejected from the game. They are gong to need to organise more effectively on this side of the court and the Hawks have to play a cleaner game than the Miami Heat in terms of turnovers and rebounding numbers and this has the feeling of a very close game.
Neither is expected to offer too much resiliency against the Number 1 Seed Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference, but the narrow lean has to be with the Miami Heat to become the first Number 10 Seed to earn a spot in the First Round of the Playoff. Nothing will come easy, but Miami may feel that their Defensive work gives them the edge, as long as they can find someone to step up and perform Offensively as they have seen in recent games.
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Dallas Mavericks upset the odds to beat the Sacramento Kings and that has earned them the right to compete in the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference Play In Tournament. They are just the second Number 10 Seed to make it through the opening elimination game and that occurred just hours after Miami Heat had become the first to do that.
Making the First Round may not appease the unhappy fans, but the knives could be out for Nico Harrison if Dallas fail to make the Playoff.
He will have been very satisfied watching Anthony Davis lead the Mavericks to that win earlier this week, but this is another big test for Dallas when they head out to face the Memphis Grizzlies. A narrow loss to the Golden State Warriors has forced the Grizzlies into this Number 8 Seed game, but they will be encouraged by the overall performance and a couple of blowout wins over the Mavericks since the Luka Doncic trade will also help.
One of those may not matter too much with it being played on the final day of the regular season, but the win in March is important and will give Memphis plenty of belief to take into this game.
However, there is one concern that Ja Morant may miss out.
While he has not reached previous levels, Morant's recent performances have been much more encouraging and his absence will hurt Memphis. The Grizzlies are 18-14 without Ja Morant this season, but they will give him all of the time he needs to get himself ready to play having hurt his ankle in that loss to the Warriors.
The Grizzlies will know that their Offensive plans will be impacted without Ja Morant, although they can still give Dallas more to think about than the Sacramento Kings did in a disappointing home loss. The Mavericks will try and use their size to dominate the boards and limit the Memphis Grizzles to one and done, while grinding it out has to be part of the plan Offensively.
Most teams in the NBA will look to really get going from the three point range, but that is not a strength for Dallas and instead they will want to get the ball down into Anthony Davis and use him to open things up for others. The Mavericks did hit 14 three pointers in the win over the Kings and at 50% of the shots thrown up, but this Memphis team has plenty of intensity when getting out to the shooters and that could prevent that happening again.
Klay Thompson did remind people of his obvious talent in that win over the Kings to support Davis, but the veteran is not the force he once was. Replicating that effort will be tough and it gives Memphis the edge, even if Morant has to sit out.
This is a big spread if Dallas can impose themselves on this Number 8 Seed game, but the feeling is they may not have the consistency to do that as they did when beating the Sacramento Kings. This may just give Memphis the impetus to pull away in the Fourth Quarter and cover this mark set for the last Play In Tournament game.
MY PICKS: 15/04 Orlando Magic - 5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
15/04 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/04 Chicago Bulls - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/04 Sacramento Kings - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Miami Heat + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
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