NBA Conference Finals Picks 2014

And then there were four... The NBA season is winding down with the four teams that most would have predicted would be facing off in the Conference Finals all taking their seats.

Eastern Conference Finals Picks and Preview

                                                                       

Indiana Pacers (1) v Miami Heat (2)

The two teams that were considered the best in the Eastern Conference get a chance to meet once again with a place in the NBA Finals on the line and this should be a better series than what some may expect after seeing what we have in the Play Offs to this point.

The Indiana Pacers have looked vulnerable as they struggled to see off the Atlanta Hawks and the Washington Wizards in the first two Rounds of the Play Offs. After losing just six home games during the regular season, the Pacers have lost four times on this court in the Play Offs and the hard work to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.

However, the Pacers clearly match up very well with a Miami team that have crushed Charlotte and Brooklyn for the loss of one game so far in the Play Offs. Roy Hibbert provides the height and power to prevent the easy access to the rim, while they have enough length and speed to close on the three point shooters that make the eat so dangerous.

An issue for Indiana is going to be try and get a consistent performance from the team through this series as their up and down games against their first two opponents won't cut it. They've only won back to back games once in the Play Offs and failed to do that at home.

I do think the series will be closer than the form may indicate simply because Indiana have played Miami so close as shown by the 7-7 record over the last 14 games. Even with that in mind, I can't go against the Heat making to their fourth straight NBA Finals simply because the Pacers have been too inconsistent to beat them four times in my mind.

Prediction: Miami Heat in Six Games

Sunday 18th May

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game One Pick: The Indiana Pacers certainly can make life difficult for the Miami Heat with the rotations they can put on the court and this is a bad match up for the defending NBA Champions, but it also means ignoring what we have seen over the last two months from Indiana.

If they can impose their style on Game One, the Pacers will always be able to win their share of games against Miami, but home court hasn't been much of an advantage for the team over the last three weeks. Losing four games on their own floor in the Play Offs doesn't inspire confidence in the Pacers to win this series and Miami have plenty of experience to come to the Bankers Life Fieldhouse and steal at least one of the first two games here.

Indiana have rarely put together back to back impressive performances in the Play Offs so Game One might be a real chance for Miami to take away home court that the Pacers invested so much energy into taking in the regular season. A couple of extra days of rest is also on Miami's side in time for Game One and I believe they win and cover the spread to open the Eastern Conference Finals.


Tuesday 20th May
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game Two Pick: Before the Eastern Conference Finals began, it was clear that the Indiana Pacers would give Miami plenty of match up problems, but I doubt anyone would have predicted the performance they were going to produce in Game One.

Indiana were hitting plenty of shots outside of the three point perimeter and managed to earn a big lead when it came to free throws attempted and that raises the question of whether they can achieve the same thing for two games in a row.

I would have to expect Miami to improve their defensive effort in Game Two than they had on Sunday, but the Heat will be confident they can steal home court advantage if they can replicate their own offensive success from Game One. The Heat will also expect to be better from the three point perimeter where they struggled on Sunday and I do think this will be a lot closer in Game Two.

This Pacers team is built to beat Miami, but they are so inconsistent that it is hard to see them back up their Game One almost perfect performance with another one on Tuesday. I expect a tough, tense Game Two, but one where the Heat make the adjustments to take away home court before the series returns to South Beach at the weekend.


Saturday 24th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Three Pick: The Indiana Pacers certainly do match up well against the Miami Heat and better shooting in the Fourth Quarter of Game Two would have given the Pacers a two game lead in the series. However, their offensive problems are well-documented and the lack of consistency, especially once they get down to the bench players, is going to be tough to overcome.

The three days rest will have given Paul George enough time to recover from the concussion he suffered in Game Two and I would expect him to take to the court. However, if he is limited or unavailable, the Miami Heat will have a big advantage when they have the ball in hand.

Even with George on the court, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade showed what they are capable of doing in the Fourth Quarter of Game Two and they will need a little more help from their role players to get away from the Pacers. Chris Bosh is yet to show up in the series so could be due a big game and Miami have found a way to get it done against Indiana at home in recent games of the series.

Miami have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 games against Indiana overall and have also covered in 3 of their last 4 at home. I will back them to cover the spread in Game Three.


Monday 26th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Four Pick: The Miami Heat have overcome slow starts to win the last two games in this series and I think they have a little too much depth and offense for the Indiana Pacers to deal with.

With the chance to really put their foot on Indiana's throat, I think Miami extend their home winning run against the Pacers.

The fact that they have also covered the spread in four of the last five games against Indiana at home is another plus for Miami and I think they can do the same again in Game Four.


Wednesday 28th May
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game Five Pick: The close out game of any series is always a much tougher game to play, but the experience of the Miami Heat over the last four years should give them the confidence to get this Eastern Conference Finals completed as soon as Wednesday night. The Heat will also be very much aware that they have got the Indiana Pacers on the floor and they will not want to allow this dangerous opponent get up and force a pressure filled Game Six back in Miami.

Being without Ray Allen could present some problems as he has been very effective from the three point line and has been provided Miami with another offensive spark outside of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but these two players have been the best players during the series at clutch time which has helped Miami lead 3-1 when they could easily be at 2-2 or 1-3.

I do expect a big effort from the Indiana Pacers, but I think they are lacking another consistent offensive weapon outside of Lance Stephenson and Paul George, while the bench isn't providing enough to allow Indiana to pull away from the Heat.

I've backed Miami in every game in the series and they have come up trumps three times out of four games- I would feel I've over thunk this situation if I don't back the Heat to close the show on Wednesday evening.


Friday 30th May
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game Six Pick: There were a few very strange calls in Game Five from the officials that gave Indiana the chance to win after being in a big hole and all with LeBron James having to have extended time on the bench. The calls of James were ridiculous with at least three of the five fouls he picked up being very poor decisions from the officials, but the Heat, unlike Indiana, didn't do any talking about that and are simply focusing on Game Six and closing the series.

The other major talking point of Game Five was Lance Stephenson and his antics during the entire evening, one that may come back to bite him on the backside after he was caught blowing in James' ear.

With the pent up disappointment of Game Five that saw James log a Play Off low in minutes and points, I can see him reclaim his place on the throne with a huge performance in Game Six.

Can Paul George really replicate his performance from Game Five that saw the Pacers stave off elimination? I think it would be much harder when he is mentally trying to keep up with James and I also like to remember how close Miami came to winning Game Five even without their best player on the court for much of it.

I tweeted that Miami will blow Indiana out in Game Six after the third quarter of Game Five because of all the poor decisions that went against them and James sitting for all but 13 minutes to that point- the last couple of days haven't seen me change my mind.

Western Conference Finals Pick and Preview

San Antonio Spurs (1) v Oklahoma City Thunder (2)

The Western Conference Finals should be very good fun to watch, although I think the key injuries on both sides of the court are going to cast a shadow over the series. The Oklahoma City Thunder look like they will be missing Serge Ibaka for the rest of the Play Offs and that will only put more pressure on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to take over offensively.

On the other hand, the San Antonio Spurs are going to have a limited Tony Parker who should take to the court in Game One of the series, but who is going to have to look after the hamstring that forced him out of Game Five of the Semi Final series win over the Portland Trail Blazers.

It is a difficult series to predict because the Thunder have the two best players on the court, as far as I am concerned at least, but the San Antonio Spurs have a deeper rotation that can provide a spark and are a better unit.

I think the absences of Ibaka is going to be critical for the Thunder who have dominated San Antonio in recent games in the series between the teams. However, without another scorer on the court besides Westbrook and Durant, Gregg Popovich is likely to find the formula to force enough stops and then find the hot hand on the offensive side of the court.

Danny Green, Patty Mills, Kahwi Leonard or Marco Belinelli are all capable of going off from outside the three point perimeter and the Spurs may just get their rematch with the Heat that they have wanted ever since last season.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs in Seven Games


Monday 19th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game One Pick: Oklahoma City's speed and athleticism goes against the San Antonio experience and proven system and this should be a fascinating Conference Finals. The loss of Serge Ibaka may just have swung the pendulum in favour of the San Antonio Spurs, but I also can see Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson causing big problems for Tony Parker and testing the hamstring out to the full.

The Thunder have also had a strong recent record against San Antonio which will give them a boost in confidence for the series.

Game One should be a close one to call with both teams able to go on scoring streaks but I think Oklahoma City are being given a little too many points in the point spread market. They have found a way to deal with San Antonio over the last couple of years and I expect this series to be similar to the one the Thunder played against the LA Clippers with games likely to be very close throughout.


Wednesday 21st May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game Two Pick: It was a largely impressive performance from San Antonio in Game One of this series and I am not sure what adjustments Oklahoma City can make in time for Game Two. The absence of Serge Ibaka was always going to be instrumental in the series, but I still think it was surprising to see the Thunder give up the paint as much as they did in Game One.

That only opened things up for the Spurs to get their three point shooting going and I think there isn't enough Oklahoma City can do defensively to change things with just one day between games.

The Thunder might have to resort to the small line up that gives them a real offensive identity, but also means they may struggle defensively, and I will back this game to finish above the total points line that has been set.


Sunday 25th May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Three Pick: I am of the belief that this series is dead in the water unless Serge Ibaka has made a miraculous recovery and not just takes to the court, but is also at his best to keep the San Antonio Spurs from doing what they want for a third game in a row.

If Ibaka sits again, the Spurs are going to be incredibly difficult to stop if they continue hitting their shots from the three point mark and dominate the paint as they have in the first two games of the series. This is leading to foul trouble against Oklahoma City, who also need to find a consistent third scorer on the court from one of the role players to turn this series around.

Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook also need to be more efficient with the points they are scoring, but both are dealing with a San Antonio defensive scheme that is effectively playing 5 on 2 basketball.

If they can't get another playing going, this is going to be an incredibly short series, but I feel the Thunder are going to have recouped and come out in a better manner than they finished Game Two. Whether that is enough to win the game is another matter and the layers aren't quite sure either as to which way this game goes.

However, I expect more scoring from Oklahoma City which could help this game head over the total points set.


Tuesday 27th May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Four Pick: The return of Serge Ibaka in Game Three highlighted why his presence is so important for Oklahoma City on both ends of the floor- he finished with 15 points on the offensive side of the court, but added 4 blocks defensively and also clogged up the paint where San Antonio had made hay in the first two games of the series.

It also showed why the Thunder have such a strong record against San Antonio over the last couple of years as their athleticism and length caused problems for Tony Parker and the outside shooters that the Spurs rely upon.

I do think the Spurs are going to play better in Game Four than they did in Game Three, but I also have a lot of respect for the fact that Oklahoma City have dominated them at home in recent games in the series.

With another big performance from Serge Ibaka, I think the Thunder find a way to level this series as it moves back to San Antonio in two days time.


Thursday 29th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game Five Pick: When looking at this series, you can see a definite shift in momentum since the return of Serge Ibaka for the Oklahoma City Thunder and now they can really make that point with Game Five taking place back in San Antonio and the Spurs seemingly reeling.

Ibaka's return has shown why the Thunder have posed so many problems for San Antonio over the last couple of years and they improved to 6-0 with the big man in the starting line up and 0-2 without him.

There have to be some tension in the Arena today too as the fans will only be too familiar with the pattern of the series that is replicating the Western Conference Finals of two years ago that saw the Thunder come back from 0-2 down in the series and win four straight games to make the NBA Finals.

All four previous games have been won easily by whichever team has gotten away, but I think Game Five is so pivotal for both teams with the winner the clear favourite to win the Western Conference. That should have both teams focused, but I can't ignore how well Oklahoma City match up against San Antonio.

With Ibaka in the line up and Reggie Jackson cleared after turning an ankle in Game Four, all the momentum is with the Thunder and I am going to take the points on offer and look for them to make this a very close Game Five, even a game that Oklahoma City could win outright.


Saturday 31st May
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game Six Pick: There was a feeling that the Oklahoma City Thunder were a little fatigued when they were blown out in Game Five on Thursday and now they face an elimination game at home against the San Antonio Spurs.

The Miami Heat will be resting up at home in the hope that this series is extended to Game Seven, which is scheduled to be played on Monday (three days before the NBA Finals are due to begin), and the Heat may just get their wish.

Oklahoma City were able to rest their starters towards the end of the blow out in Game Five so I expect a fresher team to take to the court, while they have dominated San Antonio at home including blow out wins in Game Three and Four.

The concern is trying to slow down the momentum San Antonio picked up on Thursday as an adjustment in bringing in Matt Bonner to the starting line up opened up the shots for the Spurs. However, I think the Thunder will have at least one more big stand and I can see the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook duo finding a way to help the Thunder extend this to one more game.

MY PICKS: 18/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
19/05 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
21/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 211 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
24/05 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs Over 208 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/05 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/05 Miami Heat - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/05 Oklahoma City Thunder + 5 Points  @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/05 Miami Heat - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-7, - 2.20 Units

Conference Semi Finals: 12-10, + 1.36 Units
First Round Final: 22-19, + 2.02 Units

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (May 17-18)

The last major piece of silverware to be decided in England is the FA Cup and the Final between Arsenal and Hull City will be back in the more traditional setting of coming at the end of the League season.

I was never a fan of sticking the Cup Final a week before the end of the season as the prestige of the competition took another blow with that decision, although I do wish they had stuck to the regular 3pm kick off instead of this 5pm one they have for the weekend (spare a thought for the Hull City fans who might actually be heading home after the game).

It might have worked out a lot better for the FA Cup Final if it had been set for the 3pm kick off slot because this game is going up against the final La Liga games of the season with the Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid match kicking off at the same time. Personally I would watch the FA Cup Final, for as long as it is competitive, over the La Liga game, but I have a feeling there will be plenty of neutrals who might not do the same thing.

Of course the game at the Nou Camp is essentially a 'Final' between the top two teams in the Spanish top flight, although one that can be won by Atletico Madrid as long as they avoid defeat. There will be a real confidence they can do that ahead of the big Champions League Final against their city rivals Real Madrid next weekend, but I believe that both of those games are going to end up being linked.

If Atletico were to lose the La Liga title this weekend after virtually having two hands on the trophy two weeks ago, I would fear for their chances of winning in Lisbon. However, win the title this weekend and the momentum would certainly be behind the side considering how off the boil Real Madrid have been following the win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League Semi Finals.


It was a good week for the picks that have improved the numbers from May and the season in general as both League One Play Off Semi Final second legs were won by the home team. That has set up two good Play Off Finals next weekend with the League Two Final being set by Saturday afternoon.

With the season winding down, there might only be a few picks left for May before the World Cup post will be created in the first week of June in preparation for the tournament that kicks off on June 12th.


Arsenal v Hull City FA Cup Final Pick: If games and Finals went the way they should on paper, Wigan Athletic would never have beaten Manchester City last season and that alone should keep Arsenal fans from counting their chickens before their eggs have hatched.

For the second year in a row, the FA Cup Final looks a mismatch on paper, but Arsenal are accustomed to failing to produce in a big moment when the team is expected to win and the memories of the League Cup Final loss to Birmingham City will still be fresh in the minds of the fans going to Wembley Stadium.

Arsenal were expected to waltz through Birmingham and I get a similar feeling that they are expecting something of the same in this one, but the tension of not winning a trophy for almost a decade will play its part. As much as players tell the media they don't listen to such statistics, the Arsenal players would have to be machines to not realise the importance of winning this game.

That will bring tension into the match, although the side will also feel they have a mental edge having dismissed Hull City twice already this season. Hull are also missing the likes of Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long and I am not convinced they will have enough of a goal threat to really cause Arsenal problems through the ninety minutes.

Hull City's biggest impact is likely to come from set pieces, but they haven't scored in either game against the Gunners and I think Arsenal are going to snap their run of nine years without a trophy. Backing Arsenal to win to nil in normal time looks the call for the game.


Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The maths for this game are very simple- if Barcelona win, the win the La Liga title, but if they fail to pick up the three points, it will be their opponents Atletico Madrid who will pick up the trophy on Saturday at the Nou Camp.

They may be back in the title race, but Barcelona haven't looked like a team that is on the same page in in the last few months and I think they are going to struggle to break down Diego Simeone's team.

It is the sixth time that Atletico and Barcelona will be meeting this season and four of the last five games have ended in draws with the sole exception coming in the Champions League Semi Final that was won by Atletico Madrid in the Vicente Calderon.

My gut feeling is that Atletico are going to make themselves hard enough to beat to earn the requisite result to win the title, although this game is likely to be a draw if they are to win the League.

MY PICKS: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Barcelona-Atletico Madrid Draw @ 3.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

May Update: 11-12, + 4.80 Units (42 Units Staked, + 11.43% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Rome Tennis Picks 2014 (May 16th)

When Jo-Wilfried Tsonga missed a number of chances to take the first set of his match against Milos Raonic, I tweeted out that I was hoping it wasn't going to be one of those days when the little bit of luck needed was not going to be on my side.

I had nothing to fear as the rest of the day proved to be very successful for the picks and has rebuilt the season totals that were so badly affected by a poor week in Madrid last week.

With the Quarter Finals all scheduled for Friday, hopefully the good run of the last couple of days can go on for a few more days before the French Open begins in a little over a week from today.


Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Jeremy Chardy followed up his impressive win over Roger Federer with a comfortable one over Ivan Dodig, but his tournament could come to an end against the big-serving Canadian.

I backed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Milos Raonic on Thursday, but the aggressive style of play that is favoured by the latter these days paid dividends once he got through a first set he should really have lost.

The match up with Chardy that is seemingly up Raonic's street as he has won all four previous matches they have played on the professional Tour, including a comfortable straight sets win in Madrid last week.

Raonic can put immense pressure on Chardy with his serve and it could lead to the Frenchman perhaps pushing too hard to stay with him. The groundies of Chardy can be erratic too and Raonic dominated his second serve last week to the extent that anything similar will give him a great chance to record another comfortable win against him and move into the Semi Final.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Tommy Haas: The veteran Tommy Haas is showing very little sign of slowing down as a threat on the Tour and his win over Stanislas Wawrinka in the Third Round was impressive.

Arguably, Grigor Dimitrov's win over Tomas Berdych later in the afternoon was even more impressive in the manner it came about and this should lead to a top quality Quarter Final between two one-handed backhand exponents.

I am giving the edge to Dimitrov in the contest as I believe he will have a little more in the tank at this stage of their careers, while also slightly better when it comes to the serve and the return of serve. These can make all the difference in what should be a fascinating encounter and I like Dimitrov to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.


Andy Murray + 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: It is hard to believe that these two players have not met since 2011 considering they have both been at the top of the men's game in that time, so this is going to be an interesting match to view.

Andy Murray wanted the match with Rafael Nadal to assess how well his preparations have been going for the French Open, although I don't think anyone is confusing this Nadal with the one that has been so dominant on the clay courts over the last decade.

For the second match in a row, Nadal was pushed harder than expected and I think Murray has every chance of becoming the latest player to be able to do that. The Brit hasn't been serving as well as he will need to in this match, but I think he will also have a few chances to break serve as Nadal just isn't getting enough from that aspect of his game.

Can Murray win the match? I believe he could, but that will come down to taking the key points and keeping Nadal down if he gets into a strong position, something Mikhail Youzhny couldn't do on Thursday when leading 76, 20 before losing 11 games in a row.

Even a competitive loss would give Murray the cover and I think he will be able to do that at the least.


Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: I have backed Ana Ivanovic twice this week and I am going to risk being behind her for at least one more match- it is simply a risk because Ivanovic can blow hot and cold on a tennis court and you can't always be convinced with what you are going to see.

If she is cold, Carla Suarez Navarro has the nous and expertise on the clay courts to take advantage and move through to the Semi Final, but if Ivanovic is on her game, I would expect her to be too strong for the Spaniard.

The extra power should see Ivanovic through if she is on form, especially against the weaker second serve that Suarez Navarro possesses. The inconsistency is the biggest factor that can't be determined in Ivanovic's game at this moment, but I would think she can win this match 63, 64.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Agnieszka Radwanska has won the last five matches in a row against Jelena Jankovic which suggests there is something not quite right in the match up for the Serb.

I can't quite put my finger on what that is apart from the fact that Radwanska employs a few more variations in her game and that might be hurting the rhythm that Jankovic likes to play with.

Losing rhythm means more unforced errors against an opponent that thrives on them and that is where I think the clay courts will only make it harder for Jankovic to hit through her opponent.

She did win their only previous meeting on a clay court, but I expect Radwanska to square that up here with a 63, 57, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray + 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Rome Update: 12-6, + 9.26 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.72% Yield)

Rome Tennis Picks 2014 (May 15th)

The tournament in Rome continues on Thursday after the dramatics of the Wednesday night match between Rafael Nadal and Gilles Simon which won't have done much for those who have already pencilled in a Nadal win at the upcoming French Open.

In years past, Nadal would run through these clay tournaments with barely a sweat broken and he certainly wouldn't be getting pushed to the edge as he has been over the last six weeks. He is making matches out of opponents that most would expect the Spaniard to have too much for on the clay courts, but Nadal is struggling and the draw is going to determine what happens to him at Roland Garros.


There was also a loss for Roger Federer which was perhaps unsurprising in hindsight after he became a father again last week- there must have been a few sleepless nights for Federer and he admitted before the tournament that he wasn't expecting a lot from it.

The unforced errors would concern a perfectionist that Federer is, but I also think he will be happy being able to focus on Roland Garros and spending more time with the newest members of his family in the next two weeks.


It was also another positive day for the picks, although Andrey Golubev's retirement just two games from defeat and some poor serving from Tomas Berdych prevented it being a far better day. I can't complain with a positive return after the previous week in Madrid so I won't worry myself too much about the results that didn't go the way I wanted, but will just look for Thursday to be another positive step towards a successful week.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Milos Raonic: Both of these players would prefer the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general to aid their game, but both have shown signs in the past of being able to be competitive on the clay courts too.

Of the two players, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga certainly has the better clay court pedigree with strong showings in his home Grand Slam in Paris.

Tsonga may also have an added advantage of facing a big-server in Kevin Anderson on Wednesday and that may give him additional patience that is required on the clay courts. The Frenchman has won both previous matches against Milos Raonic, although both have been tight, closely contested matches and I will look for him to make it three in a row.


Tomas Berdych-Grigor Dimitrov Over 23.5 Games: This is the fifth time these two players will be meeting one another and the previous four have all gone the distance, including in Madrid last week.

With the way both Tomas Berdych and Grigor Dimitrov both play, there is every chance that this could also go three sets as both players can hit hot form, but also come off the boil at times.

The serves are solid weapons for both players too, but again this is an area where both Berdych and Dimitrov can suddenly throw in a bad game and both players are closely matched to think it could be competitive and another long match between them.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Rafael Nadal isn't in great form and that is despite him winning the title in Madrid last week, while he is also coming off a huge match against Gilles Simon that must have taken something out of him.

With no rest days between matches in the Masters tournaments, Nadal's fitness has to be the concern in a match up that has proven very comfortable for him over the last few years.

Mikhail Youzhny was never a player that troubled Nadal on the clay courts simply because his weight of shot wasn't effective enough on the slower courts and getting into the net, one of Youzhny's strengths, is much more difficult on the clay courts.

He does have the character to not take a backward step against Nadal, but if the latter is ready to go, I would expect he could record a 62, 64 win and move into the Quarter Finals.


David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: This is another rematch from Madrid last week and I expect David Ferrer to frank the form that saw him beat Ernests Gulbis in the Quarter Final.

That improved Ferrer's record to 3-0 against Gulbis and I think he can take advantage of his rest from Wednesday while the Latvian was having to struggle through against Stephane Robert.

The clay courts should favour Ferrer, but Gulbis does have his best Grand Slam result on the clay courts too so he won't be intimidated by the task in front of him. Unfortunately, Ferrer is also capable of seeing his opponents break down against his as he tests their resolve and consistency with the longer rallies and his solid defensive play.

It was that kind of play that gave Gulbis a tough time in Madrid and I think the slightly slower conditions here will favour Ferrer a little more so a similar result to last week looks on the cards.


Ana Ivanovic + 4.5 games v Maria Sharapova: Ana Ivanovic can be guilty of lacking consistency off the ground and I also feel she can drop her head when falling behind in matches, but I still believe she is being under-estimated with the games head start she is being given.

As erratic as Ivanovic's serve can be, I expect her to get after Maria Sharapova's serve and force some breaks for herself which will give her a good chance to take a set and cover with the games she is given.

Ivanovic has heavy groundies that can cause Sharapova problems and they will be meeting for the fifth time on a clay court in the last two years. In that time, the Russian has won every match, but Ivanovic would have covered with this head start in all but one of those matches. That includes their three set battle in Stuttgart last month and I think backing the Serb to keep this competitive is the far to go.


Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: I will be backing another big Serbian star to move through to the Quarter Finals as I expect Jelena Jankovic to be a little too solid for Flavia Pennetta, despite the home support the latter will receive.

This is another rematch of one that took place in Stuttgart last month which resulted in yet another win for Jankovic over Pennetta and she has also beaten the Italian here in Rome previously, albeit back in 2008.

Both players are solid competitors that play on the edge of their emotions and neither is afraid to show off their emotions during matches.

Confidence should be higher on Jankovic's side of the court as she continues to win plenty of tennis matches on the clay courts and I believe she will have a little too much consistency for Pennetta to keep up with. I won't be surprised to see a number of breaks of serve, but eventually suspect the Serb moves through 64, 46, 63.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych-Grigor Dimitrov Over 23.5 Total Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Rome Update: 7-5, + 2.1 Units (24 Units Staked, + 8.75% Yield)

Rome Tennis Picks 2014 (May 14th)

After a long week and a half of making picks in the two big tournaments that have been taking place in Madrid and Rome, Tuesday proved to be the best day for a long time. Hopefully that will spark a solid week the rest of the way and get the season moving in the right direction again after a couple of tough weeks and also get the momentum trending positively ahead of the French Open which is under two weeks away.


Wednesday will see a few more of the big names open their campaign here in Rome including the returning Roger Federer who is fresh off becoming a father again which meant he missed out in Madrid last week.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Marcel Granollers: It was this time last year when Andy Murray had to retire from a match against Marcel Granollers that eventually saw the British Number 1 miss out on the French Open.

On that occasion, Granollers was taking advantage of the hip/back issues that Murray was feeling, but the latter is in better health in 2014 even if he hasn't had the best results so far and has dropped down the Rankings.

Murray suffered a disappointing result in Madrid last week after coming through a tough Second Round match against Nicolas Almagro and the clay courts are not his favoured surface. However, Granollers hasn't been in great form himself even if he did beat Feliciano Lopez in the First Round and his serve is incredibly vulnerable at times.

It won't be easy for Murray at times, especially if he doesn't serve well, but I like Murray to find a way to come through 64, 64.


Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 games v Andrey Golubev: Mikhail Youzhny continues to battle on the Tour, but I think it has become clear that the Russian is winding down what was a decent career, albeit one that saw him fail to reach the very upper echelons of the men's game.

That isn't taking away anything from the way Youzhny competed on a weekly basis and he was one of the real characters on the Tour. The form hasn't been that good in recent weeks, but Youzhny can still be a handful for the players lower down the Ranking totem pole.

He faces Andrey Golubev who is coming off a hard earned win over Fernando Verdasco and who has come through the qualifiers so the confidence has to be in a good position for this Second Round match.

However, the clay courts are not the favoured ones of Golubev and I think Youzhny poses enough problems to come through with a 76, 64 win.


Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: I must be a little crazy to be backing Tommy Haas to win another match this week after the hard work he made of Andreas Seppi following a 61 first set score and especially as I backed the German against Igor Sijsling in Madrid last week.

In that tournament, Haas was seemingly more than a little in control of the match as he won the first set and had numerous opportunities to break Sijsling in that set, but then he suddenly came off the boil.

It was a similar situation on Tuesday for Haas, but I still think he has enough in his locker to see off the Dutchman and earn a measure of revenge from last week.

This will come down to which of the players takes his chances the best, but I think Haas reverses the loss from last week and comes through 62, 46, 64.


Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: Tomas Berdych has dominated Dmitry Tursunov in their meetings in the past, but the match in Monte Carlo last month was far closer than I would have imagined on the clay courts.

On that day, it was Berdych's poor serving that let him down and I expect the extra time spent on the red dirt would make him a much tougher prospect for Tursunov in this match.

The Russian did come through a very surprising win in the First Round, but he hasn't had the best of time on clay courts this season or in the recent past and Tursunov has also suffered a number of bagels over the last month.

It isn't something I am expecting to happen here, but decent serving from Berdych should help him prevail with a 64, 62 win unless Tursunov can find the form that makes him much more dangerous on a faster surface. I just don't believe he has the patience for the longer rallies that occur on the slower clay courts and may struggle to stay with Berdych.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Rome Update: 5-4, + 0.26 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.44% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (May 13-16)

The domestic football season is about two weeks away from finishing off and the attention will soon turn to the World Cup in Brazil which begins in a little over a month from today.

During this week, we will see the Europa League Final and also a couple of the Play Off Finals in the lower Leagues in England set for the week on Saturday.


It was a surprisingly tough final day in the Premier League for the picks, although it was a late goal from a Fulham youngster and a Sergio Aguero miss from two yards with the goal gaping that prevented it being a very good day.

The good news is that there wasn't too much damage done to the totals for the month thanks to Derby County's success in the second leg of their Play Off Semi Final.


Leyton Orient v Peterborough United Pick: I picked the first leg to have some goals and a little better finishing from Leyton Orient would have certainly seen at least three goals scored, but the 1-1 draw will also make the home team a strong favourite to move through to the League One Play Off Final.

However, Peterborough United have proved their capabilities against Leyton Orient already this season by winning at Brisbane Road and they are a dangerous team that can't be under-estimated considering the amount of goals they do score.

The weather in London might bog down the pitch which could reduce the chances for goals, but these teams love getting forward and I would be surprised if there isn't at least three scored tonight.

I also considered picking Leyton Orient to win a game where both teams score which looks a huge price considering the way games have gone when these teams have met this season, but I am going to stick with just picking the home team to win at odds against.


Rotherham United v Preston North End Pick: If it wasn't for a truly special goal from Joe Garner in the first leg of this Semi Final, I don't know if I would have fancied Preston North End to break down Rotherham United and I believe the home team in this second leg will prevail.

Rotherham have been playing very well at home in recent games and they do score plenty of goals which could make it tough for Preston North End to keep up with them.

The fact that Preston have come off the boil to the extent of losing 3 of their last 4 away games in the League doesn't bode well for them. However, Preston can be tough to beat and that does raise some doubts about backing the home team.

On the other hand, Preston have been beaten at Peterborough United, Wolves, Brentford and Swindon Town on their travels this season and those teams were four of the top seven in the campaign. Goals also change teams approach, especially in a close tie like this one and I have a feeling that Rotherham United can score first and then counter-attack their way into the League One Play Off Final next weekend.

MY PICKS: Leyton Orient @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Rotherham United @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

May Update: 9-12, - 0.60 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.58% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Rome Tennis Picks 2014 (May 13th)

It wasn't a good Monday for the picks as the last week's poor form carried over to the opening day of the Rome Masters, but it is still early in the week and the return of the big names to the court should hopefully provide better results.


Marin Cilic v Santiago Giraldo: The last month has been the most consistent one that Santiago Giraldo has put together on the main Tour and he followed up his appearance in the Final in Barcelona with a Quarter Final showing in Madrid last week.

Giraldo continued the solid form he has been showing by winning a couple of qualifiers here in Rome too and he has plenty of big names beaten in the last few weeks with the likes of Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Nicolas Almagro all beaten, so Marin Cilic won't hold too many fears for the South American.

However, I think Cilic serves well enough to give Giraldo something else to think about, especially if he continues to return as aggressively as he has been in 2014.

The Croatian hasn't been as good form as he was showing a couple of months ago, but Cilic has won all three previous matches against Giraldo and is yet to drop a set against him. As well as Giraldo has been playing, I believe he might be a touch over-rated in this First Round match and I will back Cilic to come through.


Tommy Haas v Andreas Seppi: Rome hasn't been a happy hunting ground for Tommy Haas in recent seasons and he is playing an opponent that will be getting a lot of support from the home crowd which could make this a very tough First Round match for the German.

Andreas Seppi hasn't been having a great 2014, but he is still an awkward customer and the Italian support should help him really take the attack to Haas.

However, I do think Haas' has a strong head to head record against Seppi because he has the more consistent serve and can earn cheaper points on that shot. That wasn't the case in a surprising early loss in Madrid last week, but it has only been two weeks since Haas beat Seppi in Germany.

That was a very close match that was decided by two points and this is bound to be another close match, but I think Haas will be able to set up the points more consistently on his own serve and come through in three sets again against Seppi.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 5.5 games v Pere Riba: Pere Riba surprised me by coming through his First Round match against Paolo Lorenzi, but there is little doubt that the competition he will be facing on Tuesday has been ratcheted up to a whole new level.

Riba spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and there really isn't a lot about his game that will be giving Stanislas Wawrinka a sleepless night ahead of this match.

The win in the First Round was the first on the main Tour on a clay court for Riba since 2011, while Wawrinka should be more focused after being beaten in the First Round in Madrid last week in surprising circumstances.

I expect Wawrinka will dominate behind the heavier serve and groundstrokes and he should be good enough to record a 64, 62 win.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: David Ferrer crushed Mikhail Kukushkin when they met on the hard courts earlier this season and I think the clay courts are only going to work in his favour that little bit more.

It has been a strange kind of season for Ferrer who has beaten Rafael Nadal on clay, but who has been dismissed by Teimuraz Gabashvili on the surface too. He will have to be aware of the decent serve that Kukushkin does possess, but the Kazakhstan player has never really enjoyed the slower surface.

Before his win in the First Round, Kukushkin had lost 8 in a row including 4 in a row on the clay courts and I think he will have trouble in the slightly slower conditions in Rome that will come with an overcast day that is expected.

Ferrer has to serve better than he has been in recent weeks, but the Spaniard can pick up a 63, 63 win to move through to the Third Round.


Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: Both Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci have had a downturn in their form in 2014, but the Italians are back in front of their home crowd on a surface that should favour their games.

I expect Vinci to show that in her First Round match against Ekaterina Makarova who has generally struggled when it comes to the slower clay courts.

That could be down to the lack of patience and consistency that Makarova shows off the ground and I think Vinci can force mistakes with the extended rallies that are likely to come about on the surface.

Vinci hasn't been in great form, but did reach the Third Round in Madrid last week after a Quarter Final appearance in Oeiras the week before and that might have restored enough confidence to come through this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Tommy Haas @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rome Update: 1-3, - 4.54 Units (8 Units Staked, - 56.75% Yield)