Weekend Football Picks 2013 (December 21-23)

This is the start of the busy Christmas and New Year period in which English football takes a centre stage while the majority of European Leagues will be closing down for the 'winter break'. This a topic that divides many in England as to whether our Leagues should have a break in the middle of the season too, but I can't be the only fan that loves the football coming thick and fast.

I don't think I would appreciate having to wait two to three weeks for the next set of football games as I barely get through the international breaks we already have during the course of the season.


It is an important time for a number of clubs as we play the final round of games before Christmas Day. The Premier League already knows that the bottom club on that morning will be Sunderland who will look to become only the second team in the last 20 years to escape the drop despite occupying 20th spot in the table on the 25th December.

Who will be top of the League is less clear as any of three clubs (Arsenal, Liverpool or Chelsea) will have the chance to be in that position by the end of the weekend's football, while the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will look to move a little closer to the top four.


We have also seen a number of manager sackings in recent weeks in the top flight as Chairmen around the top flight begin to feel a little twitchy if the season hasn't gone as planned to this point. One manager who doesn't deserve what is happening to him is Malky Mackay and the only thing I have to say on the matter is that Cardiff City may end up reaping what they sow.

Vincent Tan would do well to read the story of what happened to Blackburn Rovers when their owners decided the club was 'under-achieving' in the Premier League and his Cardiff team could potentially go the same way. His attitude has stunk for much of the season with various strange power moves from Tan to display his authority, but this one is a new low and he better make the right choice for the next manager if Cardiff are to avoid the drop.


Liverpool v Cardiff City Pick: It would be one of the biggest surprises in memory if Cardiff City were able to replicate the 0-4 result they achieved in their last League visit to Anfield and I think it is much more likely that the reverse of that result will be achieved.

On current form, there is no better striker than Luis Suarez who has made a particularly habit of feasting on the lesser sides in the Premier League. Suarez has scored 12 goals in his last 5 appearances at Anfield against the likes of Crystal Palace, West Brom, Fulham, Norwich City and West Ham United and I think it will take a huge effort for Cardiff City to avoid joining that list of sides.

Liverpool have been scoring so many goals at Anfield that I can't really find a reason for anything but a straight-forward home win, although I don't like the Asian Handicap needing Liverpool to win by three clear goals to cover. Instead, you have to perhaps focus on the attacking potential of this Liverpool team, even without Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge.

They have hit at least 3 goals in their last 5 games at Anfield, while Cardiff City did concede 4 goals in their toughest away game of the season so far at Stamford Bridge. With so many games in a short space of time, you can forgive the away side for perhaps looking at other games during this festive period from where they will pick up their points.

Momentum and form is behind Liverpool in this one and I think they will score at least 3 goals in yet another home game.


Fulham v Manchester City Pick: The layers are absolutely taking no chances with Manchester City this weekend and their price for winning at Craven Cottage is almost sickeningly low. The 6-3 win over Arsenal was impressive, but you can't take a price like that with confidence considering Manchester City have only won 2 of their 8 away games in the Premier League and are missing their star striker in Sergio Aguero.

However, I can't state anything other than the fact that Manchester City are the most likely winner of this game and they are beginning to score enough goals away from home to cover some of their defensive deficiencies that have been obvious at times.

That is where Fulham will certainly feel they can cause problems, especially when you consider scored in every home game they have played so far this season including against the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur.

It does seem the layers have caught up with my thinking of backing Manchester City to win their away games with both teams scoring and that would have been a winner in each of their away wins in the League this season. Manchester City do concede, but they have been creating enough to win games and I can see them perhaps emulating the United scoreline at this ground from November.

At the moment, City can't be trusted to keep a clean sheet but the layers know this as much as anyone. Still, the 2.70 being dangled that City win this game without a clean sheet still looks the best way to get onto the game rather than the handicap or straight odds markets.


Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: It is going to be a very important afternoon for Manchester United and manager David Moyes who are more than a little aware that they cannot afford to drop too many more points if they are to get back in contention of the Premier League.

The issue for Manchester United is that they have struggled to impose their will on games at Old Trafford and have reserved their best performances, especially in the Premier League, for games away from the ground. This game looks one that they could make hay as West Ham United are struggling for goals, although they have also sent out a warning with their win at Tottenham Hotspur during the week.

West Ham United are a stubborn team and are very organised defensively that they will make it hard for Manchester United to win this game comfortably, although I do think that United have shown some real determination in the last week to ten days.

The return of Wayne Rooney will give them a spark up the pitch, while the performance at Aston Villa was exactly what the doctor would have ordered for United and anything similar to that will give them a strong chance of seeing off West Ham.

The lack of goals in the West Ham side would be a concern for the Hammers, but Manchester United need to get on the front foot and try and put in a dominant performance at Old Trafford for the first real time in the Premier League. It is a risk with the way United have played and the way that West Ham have defended, but I like the home team to win this one by a couple of goals.


Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Sometimes a team can need a really tough game following a couple of defeats to try and get back on track and that is the way Tottenham Hotspur have to approach this game, although it is a big ask against a confident team.

I am not at all convinced that Tim Sherwood has enough to be given the job on a permanent basis and I am not sure he will be able to lift a side that is in a strange position of trying to adjust to a new voice that may not be in the dressing room for too long.

The players seemed to run out of gas in their game against West Ham United as they conceded two late goals to go out of the League Cup and they will be under pressure in this game as Southampton will look to pressure Spurs up the pitch and look to force mistakes.

Southampton's goals conceded in recent games would be a concern, but they have shown more heart after losing 3 in a row in the Premier League and that determination may see them overcome their opponents in this one.

I have to respect the away record that Tottenham have built this season, but Southampton look like they are getting back to the form they displayed a few weeks ago and that could be enough to come through with the three points.

Things may get a little worse for Spurs before they get better and I like Southampton in this one.


Swansea v Everton Pick: This should be a game that should be very enjoyable for the neutrals who are watching on Sunday afternoon as both Swansea and Everton will look to get the ball down and play football.

With both sides playing the same kind of flowing football, it should mean that this is an open game and that should only aid Everton who have been in better form of the two teams.

If Everton put together a performance as they did against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, Swansea are going to find it very tough to prevent them from taking the three points. I have felt that Swansea have shown some signs of tiredness with a long season already in their legs thanks to the Europa League games and Everton's passing game could make it very difficult for them to keep up through the game.

Both teams have goalscorers in their ranks, but Everton have shown the more defensive discipline in recent games too and putting those factors together gives them the edge to get the three points in this one.

Their record in their last two visits to the Liberty Stadium is an additional confidence booster and I will back Everton to win this game.


Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: Arsenal have the chance to move back to the top of the Premier League table with a win in front of the television cameras on Monday night, but it won't be easy for the home team against a Chelsea side that have been inconsistent all season.

That inconsistency has seen Chelsea find a way to beat Manchester City and earn draws at Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, but also lose at Stoke City and just about avoid defeat against West Brom at home.

Which Chelsea turns up will have a big impact on this game that is to be played in wet and windy conditions that have affected the UK and London. I also am interested to know how Arsenal will react in a big game after failing to beat the likes of Dortmund here and losing at both Manchester clubs and in Napoli.

As good as Arsenal have played against the lesser lights, they have struggled in their biggest games and I am not convinced that they have the mental confidence to win a game of this magnitude and move to the top of the Premier League table in time for Christmas morning. They should be able to create chances against this Chelsea defence, but I also feel the away team will have a counter-attacking threat that could pay dividends in this one.

Have Chelsea enough to win? I'm not entirely sure, but I think backing them on the Asian Handicap is the right way to go as anything other than an Arsenal win will provide a winner.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 2.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Southampton @ 2.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Everton @ 2.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Chelsea + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

December Update: 11-11-1, + 5.25 Units (32 Units Staked, + 16.41% Yield)

November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 63-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2013 (December 14-15)

The Champions League and the Europa League competitions have both reached the knock out stage and I can only imagine how disappointed both Arsenal and Manchester City are in finishing second in their Groups which means they are almost certainly going to have a difficult last 16 tie.

There is clearly a difference in quality between the Group winners and the runners-up and I think Chelsea and Manchester United will both be satisfied that they can only meet Bayer Leverkusen/Schalke, Galatasaray, Olympiacos, Milan, or Zenit in the next stage.


In the mean time, neither Manchester City or Arsenal will be worrying about the draw that will be made on Monday morning as they meet each other in the big game of the Premier League this weekend. You can always tell how much the game means by the level of pressure each manager is trying to put on the other, although I do have the feeling that Arsene Wenger is the one that is trying to shift the pressure off his own side. Wenger knows Arsenal need to 'prove' they are capable of winning the Premier League, and he won't have a better stadium to prove his team's credentials in what is a fascinating game for everyone to enjoy.


The other thing that obviously would have caught my eye this week was the documentary produced by ITV, 'Vieira v Keane: Best of Enemies'- it was a fantastic piece put together, especially getting to hear my hero Roy Keane speak about some of the battles that are still so fresh in my mind.

The charisma and strength of character that Keane displayed in his pomp is still burning brightly and it shone through and I would do anything to see Manchester United sign a player like him to dominate the midfield as he did for twelve and a half years.

I was, however, a little surprised by the two teams that the players put together, especially Patrick Vieira making no mention of Marc Overmars who was such a big part of the 1998 Double winning team. Overmars might not have had a long career with Arsenal, but I remember him being a fantastic player with a direct threat full of pace and goals, a lot like Andrei Kanchelskis for United.

It wasn't made clear if the teams consisted of players playing to their standard while with the club, or just what they became, because Keano couldn't have picked Cristiano Ronaldo in 2005 as being a better player than Ryan Giggs was... That looked like a pick of a player that became the fantastic player he was in the season after Keane departed (that wasn't linked, I actually think the crap he got from the media after the Portugal-England World Cup game sparked Ronaldo's dominating season in 2006/07).

If I was picking from Vieira's and Keane's times at their respective clubs and I was picking players solely for individual seasons during that time and not what they did over a period of years, my team may have been slightly different.

I would have gone for, in that case, Schmeichel, Neville, Stam, Adams, Irwin, Kanchelskis, Keane, Vieira, Overmars, Henry and Cantona/Van Nistelrooy.

My only changes from a longer period of players work and not on individual seasons would see Beckham and Giggs come in as the wingers instead and it would be a United dominated team (no bias, I swear!!)


Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: This is by far the biggest game of the weekend in terms of the Premier League, and it is just a shame that the two clubs had contrasting results in the Champions League this week.

Before those games during the week, Manchester City were a big price to win this game, a ridiculously big price that would have been one of my biggest picks of the season to win.

I still think Manchester City are being under-estimated considering their home form and I can see them causing Arsenal a lot of problems in this one. While Arsenal have played well this season, they have not impressed so much in their big games and a quick look through those results suggest Manchester City are going to be a little too good this weekend.

Arsenal struggled to a win over Tottenham Hotspur at home and were a little fortunate to win in Dortmund even with the injuries that the home side had in that game. The Gunners didn't play well at Old Trafford in the 1-0 loss to Manchester United nor in Naples and any kind of performance like that will see Manchester City come off as comfortable winners in my opinion.

There is enough talent in the Arsenal squad to cause problems for this Manchester City defence, but I don't know how they will contain City when they come forward. It is hard to see this game going in another way and I like Manchester City to win this one.


Everton v Fulham Pick: I'm not a big fan of siding with a 'flavour of the month' team, and that is what Everton are after their performances against Manchester United and Arsenal, but I do like Everton to see off Fulham in this one.

One element of the Everton game that has changed from last season is the attacking potential they are showing in games at Goodison Park as proven by scoring 3 goals against Newcastle United and Liverpool and also hitting 4 against Stoke City.

It won't be easy against a Fulham team that may have been reinvigorated by Rene Meulensteen in the last couple of games, although both of those games came at Craven Cottage. Fulham haven't travelled so well away from home and have been conceding a fair few goals and that is an area where Everton could take advantage.

Everton are not usually a team you want to back to win by a couple of goals in any game, but they do hold the edge in this one and I think the week off will have helped recharge their batteries. They have scored enough goals to think they can win with a decent margin and at odds against, I think they are worth chancing.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: Alan Pardew was rightly given a lot of praise for engineering Newcastle United's first win at Old Trafford for over 40 years last weekend, but it would be just the way of Newcastle to fail to win this game as a follow up.

To be fair to the home side, they have backed up wins over Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur previously, but they will be missing Yohan Cabaye for this game and I don't think Southampton are to be under-estimated.

Southampton have hit the wall of late, but they did earn a big point against Manchester City last week and have also picked up points at Liverpool and Manchester United this year. They are capable of coming to St James' Park and winning, but losing Artur Boruc for a prolonged period would be tough for them to handle.

There should be chances at both ends in this one as Southampton have begun to loosen up defensively from the performances they had earlier in the campaign. Newcastle have scored 2 goals in each of their last 5 home games in the Premier League, but they only have 1 clean sheet in that run and Southampton have scored in 5 of their last 6 away games, while conceding at least 2 goals at Arsenal and Chelsea in their most recent away games.

All of this is pointing for the potential for goals in this one, which is perhaps under-rated by the layers and worth backing.


Aston Villa v Manchester United Pick: David Moyes just can't seem to get the run of health in his squad that he is desperate for, although the problem with Robin Van Persie has looked predictable after he played the full game against Newcastle United last week and came off the bench in the Champions League on Tuesday.

The training regime has also been criticised, but I do think Moyes could have done with a bit of luck and a chance to partner Van Persie with Wayne Rooney over Christmas.

It has made a visit to Villa Park that much tougher for Manchester United who need to find a way to earn the three points and get moving in the right direction up the table. They can't afford to drop more points to that end and I think Manchester United need to improve defensively if they are to win points in the coming weeks against opposition they are expected to beat.

Odds on quotes are ridiculous when you consider the form United have displayed, but I also feel Aston Villa are a much different prospect at home than they are away. Paul Lambert hasn't quite got the balance right at Villa Park as his team seems to be much more comfortable counter-attacking and that has seen them struggle to score goals at home.

Both Everton and Tottenham Hotspur both have come to Villa Park and left with a clean sheet along with the three points and I think Manchester United will look to base their success on a solid foundation. While they have looked vulnerable away from home, this is the kind of game where United will look to dig in and make life tough and I will back the away side to win with a clean sheet.


Norwich City v Swansea Pick: There aren't many times when you look at the fixture list but can't understand why one team is considered the underdog when it feels like so many factors are in their favour.

This week Norwich City are at home, where they have won their last 2 games, and they are playing a team that has just had to travel for a Europa League game a couple of days ago.

I also think the layers are not taking into consideration that Swansea have been struggling away from home a little bit in recent weeks with  5 losses from their last 7 in all competitions and also losing 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League.

The win over West Brom will have given Norwich some confidence and they could be playing a tired team that is facing its third game in less than a week having been asked to play Monday and then Thursday already.

All in all, it seems strange that Norwich are considered the underdog in this game and I think too much emphasis is perhaps placed on their heavy away losses. Norwich have actually played pretty well at Carrow Road and were unfortunate to lose to Chelsea here, while wins over West Ham United and Crystal Palace will have given them the belief that they can see of Swansea.

Norwich look a big price and hard to ignore in this game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: One of my major concerns with Andre Villas-Boas has been his tactical approach to games which has seen his side come out in a cautious fashion, but they played a lot better against Manchester United in their most recent Premier League game at White Hart Lane.

Goals from open play have been a problem for Spurs, although they have started to find their feet a little bit and this is a game where Liverpool certainly look ripe for the taking.

Liverpool have struggled away from home in recent weeks compared with how they have played at Anfield and they are missing two of their more influential players. Luis Suarez is a real threat for the side up front, but Spurs have defended well for the most part this season and I think they can do enough to keep Liverpool from getting some momentum going in this game.

They will pose problems of course, but Tottenham themselves should find some joy going forward against a defence that looked out of sorts in the loss at Hull City. Everton and Newcastle United have also exploited problems for Liverpool in their backline and Spurs do have the players that are capable of at least creating some chances.

My only hope is that Villas-Boas sees this as winnable a game as I believe it is for the home side. If he is even slightly more adventurous than usual, I like Spurs' chances to win this at White Hart Lane and once again get amongst the leading contenders in the Premier League.

MY PICKS: Manchester City @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Everton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Norwich City @ 2.88 Stan James (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)

December Update: 8-8-1, + 3.31 Units (21 Units Staked, + 15.76% Yield)

November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 63-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Week 15 Picks 2013 (December 12-16)

It was during these weeks last season that what looked like being a promising year for the picks, turned out into a poor one that was only recovered by a perfect run in the Play Offs. This time around, the picks have been much stronger and last week's small profit means the run has moved to five consecutive weeks with a winning end.

Week 14 has to be have been one of the wildest ones I have ever seen with a lot of strange turns at the end of games and it is one I am happy to escape with a winning record. This week doesn't look as intriguing on paper as last week did, but with only three weeks left of the regular season, there are of course a lot of Play Off implications that can be resolved.

Week 14 Thoughts

And I thought it was crazy in Miami: Earlier in the season after the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin issue broke, I would have been surprised to see any other team going through the strange events that had happened in Miami. I must have forgotten about Washington and all that that team gives the NFL in terms of craziness.

Last week, rumours came out that Mike Shanahan was upset with the relationship that Dan Snyder had with Robert Griffin III and that the Head Coach was looking to get out of the capital as soon as the season was over, although it was indicated that he would have gone at the end of last season if not for the injury suffered by the Quarter Back in the Play Off loss to Seattle.

Snyder has apparently placed RG3 in a position of power in the locker room, perhaps even under-mining what Shanahan has tried to do and it is no wonder the Redskins have been as unsuccessful under the owner as they have been. What happened to let an owner own and a Head Coach coach? Just when you think Snyder has taken the backward step for the team as he should have, up pop issues like this.

The owner has created a friction between the Quarter Back and the men he is supposed to lead, while Shanahan can't really enforce his rule when Snyder has acted the way he has. To give one player the extra attention has divided the locker room and no wonder the team has fallen apart in the manner it has with players like Pierre Garcon making their feelings known to the press.

Shanahan is likely out in the off-season, but who is going to take a job where someone like Snyder can't keep himself out of the team affairs? With their top draft picks gone from the RG3 trade, this is just a mess in Washington and one caused by the owner again.

RG3 has been benched for the rest of the season which is clearly a power-play from Shanahan, but most probably the right decision too if they feel they can do better with Kirk Cousins. It may also benefit the Redskins a little bit as the Quarter Back class in this year's Draft is not going to be as loaded as some initially thought.

If Cousins plays well, a Quarter Back desperate team may be wanting to trade him from Washington and perhaps help the Skins pick up a Draft pick they desperately need to fill a few spots on their roster.

Week 14 should whet your appetite for Super Bowl in New York: It seemed a lot of people were fascinated by the weather that hit some parts of North America last Sunday and if you liked that, you are sure to love the Super Bowl this year.

I have no doubt that it is going to be cold in New York with a high chance of snow in an evening kick off for the Super Bowl and I am not sure what that does for the spectacle for the fans who have paid as much as they have for tickets, or those who will be watching at home.

I thought it was fun last week, but there is no way I would want to see the Super Bowl played in the conditions we saw in Philadelphia where it was virtually impossible to kick the ball either for extra points or field goals.

Jeff Triplette botches another call: The decision to award Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis a Touchdown in the Cincinnati win over Indianapolis was by no means the only poor call made by officials last week (check the DPI call at the end of the New England win over Cleveland), but it was the second big mistake by Jeff Triplette and his crew in consecutive weeks.

The call was to award a Touchdown for Green-Ellis on fourth down despite him clearly being knocked to the ground in the backfield and falling short of breaking the end zone.

It was a terrible call and one that Triplette admitted he hadn't even looked at the fact that Green-Ellis was touched in the backfield by the Colts Defender. That has led to the NFL considering all reviews to be watched in one location, something that has aided the NHL in the reviews they have.

The idea seems smart, although it is to be voted on, but at least it will give the officials one less thing to be worried about, although bogus Pass Interference calls can't be changed.

Are New England dead in the water without Rob Gronkowski? That was the consensus view after the Tight End was lost for the season and now looks doubtful for the start of next season when tearing his ACL in the win over Cleveland on Sunday.

I don't think Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to suddenly stop scoring points, but their Defense has to be a bigger concern especially when it comes to the Play Offs and likely a second meeting with the Broncos but this time in Denver.

You just have to accept that Brady and Bill Belichick are going to find a way around the problem of not having Gronkowski, and they did manage to do without him earlier in the season. They still have Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen who can cause match up problems for Defenses, but the Patriots will only go as far as their Defense can take them and that is the bigger issue rather than the Offense.

Play Offs becomes a little clearer: The results from Week 14 have clarified a few issues in terms of the Play Offs going forward, for example I think New Orleans have almost certainly secured the Number 2 seed in the NFC behind Seattle.

Indianapolis are very much expected to host Kansas City on Wild Card weekend, while defeats for the likes of Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have almost certainly knocked these two recent Super Bowl Champions out of the Play Offs.

I also have some changes to my Play Off predictions, although the coming three weeks could throw a wrench into them.

AFC- 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Miami

NFC- 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Detroit, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco

Top Ten

1) Denver Broncos (11-2): That Offense is going to be tough to stop, even in cold weather.

2) Seattle Seahawks (11-2): I wouldn't back too many teams, if any, to win a Play Off game in Seattle which makes them favourites to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC.

3) New Orleans Saints (10-3): Bounced back from a loss in Seattle by completely handling the Panthers.

4) New England Patriots (10-3): Even without Rob Gronkowski, Offense should put up points but Defense has to play better.

5) San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Maybe the only team with the confidence to win in Seattle.

6) Cincinnati Bengals (9-4): Could potentially challenge New England for the Number 2 seed in AFC.

7) Kansas City Chiefs (10-3): Most likely locked in as Number 5 seed in AFC.

8) Carolina Panthers (9-4): Loss at New Orleans will likely leave Carolina scrambling for a Wild Card spot in the NFC.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (8-5): Convincing me more and more as a genuine Play Off team, while Dallas' loss on Monday Night also improves those chances.

10) Arizona Cardinals (8-5): Hanging on to the Wild Card race, although schedule does not make for great reading.

Bottom Five

32) Houston Texans (2-11): Eleven straight losses, firing your Head Coach, inside track to Number 1 pick in the Draft.

31) Washington Redskins (3-10): This is just a complete mess in Washington.

30) Atlanta Falcons (3-10): Been a bad year for Atlanta, but at least showing signs of being competitive despite that.

29) Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1): I have absolutely no idea how they lost that game in Baltimore.

28) Oakland Raiders (4-9): Another bad year for Oakland.

Week 15 Picks

There were so many crazy endings to games in Week 14, things that I have never seen before to be absolutely honest. The Baltimore-Minnesota game had a crazy FIVE Touchdowns in the last 2 minutes and 5 seconds of the game as it swung one way and then the other.

It was vital for Baltimore to win that game in the race for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, but it was one of a number of games that ended in such strange manners that the early games were considered the best in one timeslot that the NFL had ever seen.

I will be hoping for a slightly less erratic end to games this week, and also to keep the winning run going from the last five weeks. It has been a good season, but a strong end is required before the Play Offs begin in early January.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: Everyone knows what they are going to get with the Denver Broncos and that is an Offense that is going to be very difficult to stop. Even without Wes Welker, there are too many weapons for even the best Defenses to slow down completely, but it is even worse for a Defense like the one that San Diego have.

The Chargers haven't been able to slow down Offenses that are not even close to the talent level that Denver have and it would be a surprise if Denver don't surpass the 30 point mark again.

Peyton Manning is also playing with a chip on his shoulder after hearing the suggestions that he can't play in the cold weather, so I expect him to retaliate against those again in this game.

I wouldn't sleep on the San Diego Chargers either, as they are a team that is capable of scoring a lot of points with the methodical approach they have on Offense. However, they are not really a team that is built to recover from big deficits as they don't really have enough quick-strike Offense to score a lot of points quickly.

A lot of what Philip Rivers does is short, check down passes with the odd shot deep, but coming back from a big deficit would mean the Denver pass rush has their way with this Offensive Line.

It is a big number on the spread, but Denver should be able to score enough points against this Defense to see them cover.


Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants Pick: The Giants are out of the running for the Play Offs, but they have made it clear that they refuse to lie down and this may be one of the games that gets their blood pumping.

They are not a team to trust with Eli Manning going back to the turnovers that blighted his game at the start of the season, but they are facing a Seattle team that is travelling across the country to play an early game after losing a tough game against the San Francisco 49ers.

I do think Seattle are by far the better team, but this doesn't look a great spot for them and getting more than a Touchdown start in a game where both teams will pound the ball on the ground looks a lot in this game.


Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This is a very important game for the Indianapolis Colts who are trying to build some confidence ahead of their Wild Card weekend Play Off game, but I would be surprised if Houston simply roll over for their Divisional rivals.

The problem for the Texans is trying to figure how they will respond to the firing of Gary Kubiak who has been the Head Coach since the franchise was created. The team have also lost 11 games in a row, twice to Jacksonville, and there may already be some thoughts to the off-season.

Indianapolis should be able to move the chains in this game, but the Defense has to step up if they are to win the game. The Colts have struggled to get off the field when it comes to third downs, while Case Keenum can string together some big passes to keep the Texans moving down the field.

Keenum has struggled to put together a full game though and that is where the Colts may be able to do enough to see them off this week. Andrew Luck will get a little more help from his running game to at least keep the pressure off his own shoulders and it may be tough for the Texans to recover mentally if they fall behind.


Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I didn't think I would be backing Jacksonville too many times this season, but I like them with the points for the second week in a row as they host the Buffalo Bills with the Play Offs a dream for both.

The Jaguars have picked up some form in recent weeks so I don't quite understand them getting a field goal headstart in this one with the spread looking out of sync with what we have seen in recent games.

Maurice Jones-Drew may sit out, which is a concern, but Jacksonville are not afraid of using the full playbook and that makes them a dangerous team with the ball. The Buffalo Defense is playing well which would be another concern, but they have struggled against the run and I still expect the Jaguars to be able to run the ball even without their star Running Back.

I also believe the Defense is playing well enough to at least contain the dual threat of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson from out of the backfield and that will give the Jaguars every chance of securing the win. EJ Manuel isn't as good on the road either, although this is far from a vocal and intimidating home crowd, but there is enough to think Jacksonville can make this competitive and getting the 3 point start looks hard to ignore.


New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I wasn't sure the Miami Dolphins would make the Play Offs before last week, but the win at Pittsburgh gives them a great chance to take the Number 6 seed in the AFC.

However, this is a big game for them against the banged up New England Patriots who can take over as the Number 1 seed in the AFC if they win out the rest of the way. That motivation is hard to ignore, as is the fact that Tom Brady would have been hearing all week how the Patriots are finished as a Super Bowl threat now they have lost Rob Gronkowski for the year.

The Dolphins have lost 7 in a row to the Patriots, but I do think the Miami Offense will have success running and throwing the ball in this game. Ryan Tannehill has looked comfortable at Quarter Back and is beginning to find Mike Wallace more often, while Daniel Thomas has been improving with the ball in his hands out of the backfield.

New England should also have some success with their running game in this one and they will need that to be established to keep the pass rush off of Tom Brady. You can't underestimate Brady to find a way to win this game as the underdog, especially after seeing Denver open the door for the Number 1 seed and home field advantage through the Play Offs.

It might also be a mental barrier for the Dolphins, who should have really won the first game between the teams, to win this one and it could be very close so I will take the points in this one.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Philadelphia won't have to worry about the weather conditions this week as they travel to Minnesota to play in the dome, although the snow only stopped the Offense for one half last weekend in the win over Detroit.

It is going to be incredibly tough for the Vikings to slow down the Offense indoors, especially with the injuries in the Secondary and with the run Defense seemingly wearing down. LeSean McCoy should find running lanes which will only open things up for Nick Foles and the Eagles should continue scoring plenty of points.

The question then becomes whether Matt Cassel can help the Vikings keep up despite being without Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart. The Eagles Defense has been improving as each week has passed and I imagine they will do enough to at least force Cassel to complete passes from third and long situations.

Philadelphia will get pressure on the Quarter Back up front and I do like the Eagles to win this one. Unfortunately we are at the time of the season when the layers will add points to those teams that are chasing Play Offs and this isn't a great number for the Eagles to cover.

However, they do score enough points to see them get ahead of the Vikings although my concern is the battling qualities that Minnesota have displayed in the last month of the season.


New Orleans Saints @ St Louis Rams Pick: The season may not have gone exactly the way Jeff Fisher would have hoped, but there are signs that the St Louis Rams are improving an they could only get better for next season. The Rams are likely to have a fairly high Draft pick from their own position this season, but Washington's collapse means they will also have potentially the Number 2 pick.

Off the back of a couple of defeats against Divisional rivals, it is tough to see how St Louis will muster enough Offense to keep up with the New Orleans Saints in this one. The Rams will look to keep Drew Brees on the sidelines with their running game, but the Saints have shown signs of being capable of shutting that down and forcing Kellen Clemens to try and keep up with his arm.

I expect the New Orleans pass rush to keep the pressure on Clemens, while I don't really see how the St Louis Defense can improve sufficiently to slow down the Saints. The Rams have given up huge yards through the air despite being good enough to restrict rushing attacks and that is going to be a real issue against this passing Offense that Drew Brees will muster up.

Playing indoors should aid New Orleans that much more, even if the spread is out of whack for the game. The Saints might have this game between the two with Carolina, but they will finish Number 2 in the NFC even if they lose to the Panthers but win their other two games.

I think they will be able to win this by a Touchdown, but the Rams can make it competitive for a while.


Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: These two teams have different aims for the remainder of the season thanks to results over the last month or so and it will be interesting to see how Tennessee get up for this game with the Play Offs essentially gone.

The Titans play two Divisional games to end the season and may already be looking to end the season on a high note in those games. On the other hand, Arizona have to win out to have any chance of claiming one of the Wild Card spots, which is still a distinct possibility.

Arizona do have to face Seattle and San Francisco so losing this game may effectively end their hopes of making the post-season, especially as the Seattle game is on the road where Russell Wilson never loses.

With the way the Cardinals Defense has been playing, Ryan Fitzpatrick could be forced into making a couple of mistakes that costs the Tennessee Titans the game in this one. As long as Carson Palmer steers clear of those turnovers and Arizona win that turnover battle, the Cardinals should be able to see themselves through for a vital victory.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants + 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 4 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 3 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
New England Patriots + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 68-51-2, + 23.50 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

Midweek Football Picks 2013 (December 10-12)

The final round of Champions League and Europa League Group games are to be played during the week and while the English clubs all look set to qualify for the last 16 in the Champions League, it is still an important time for them to pick up some momentum.

That is especially true for Manchester United and David Moyes who can't afford to drop his third home game in a row in the space of less than seven days. The result against Everton was a touch unfortunate, but the performance against Newcastle United was nothing like what is expected at Old Trafford, while United also trying to secure top spot in this Group.

Arsenal are the only English club that is yet to secure their passage into the last 16 despite having more points than Chelsea or Manchester United in their Groups, but it would take a big loss in Naples for them to be in danger of exiting the competition.

Generally the big names are all set to progress, which makes finishing top of the Group that much more important for the sides going for it... However, knowing Moyes' luck so far and the pressure he is under, United will likely draw either Dortmund or Juventus in the next round.

Benfica v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: The chance of qualifying for the last 16 is no longer in the hands of Benfica who have to hope that Anderlecht can get some sort of result in Olympiacos as a win for the home team in that game would see the Portuguese former European Cup winners exit the competition.

It has been made clear that Benfica are concentrating mainly on winning their domestic title, but progressing in the Champions League does provide a financial boost for the club, although they have secured a place in the Europa League. They reached the Final of that competition last season, but for now they are concentrating on trying to get as far in the Champions League as possible.

Benfica will feel they will be too strong for a second string Paris Saint-Germain team that will visit Lisbon after securing top spot in the Group. They have a decent record at home in Europe, but I don't think PSG should be under-estimated as a lot of their second team would have an impact at other clubs around Europe.

The theory also goes that Benfica could drop their heads if they hear Olympiacos are winning, but PSG's only defeat in the last couple of years away from home in the Champions League also came in Portugal. I think the Stadium of Light will keep the home team going forward in this one and I do think Benfica will come away with a win, even if they do exit the competition.

Galatasaray v Juventus Pick: Playing in front of the passionate support they receive is usually a big bonus for Galatasaray and the Turkish sides in general, but I feel it could play against them in this game. The fans won't show the patience that Roberto Mancini has urged from his side and they will want Galatasaray to get amongst Juventus and get ahead early in the contest.

While the manager may be asking for patience, the players could be forgiven for losing their discipline with the fans asking them to get forward and that may play into the hands of this Juventus team.

Long gone are the days when Italian clubs would sit back and try and defend what they have- even though a draw will be enough for Juventus to get out of the Group, the Italian giants are unlikely to look to defend to earn a goalless draw.

They have players that can be very effective on the counter and I think Juventus have defended with enough discipline to then exploit spaces that may open up. If Galatasaray get desperate, Juventus have shown they can get forward and score goals, as they did late in their last 16 game with Celtic last season.

Juventus don't win many away games in the Champions League, which does make their odds of winning this game a little short, but I think they can match a win in Shakhtar Donetsk in the last game of the Group last season. Galatasaray could become a little desperate to score as the game goes on and Juventus may capatalise and will be worth backing to win here.

Olympiacos v Anderlecht Pick: You have to feel this is a perfect place for Olympiacos to ensure they book their place in the last 16, but anything less than a win would open the door for Benfica to sneak in front of them.

It won't be an easy game for Olympiacos as Anderlecht have proven to be a far more difficult side to break down on their travels than at home where the onus is on them to attack.

However, I do think Olympiacos have proven to be a very comfortable team at home in the Champions League and that includes beating the likes of Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal here over the last couple of years. Olympiacos have scored plenty of goals at home in recent games and it may be tough for an Anderlecht team to keep up, especially with the lack of motivation to get back into a game if they fall behind.

Olympiacos have won plenty of games here by a couple of goals and I think they can see off Anderlecht with a similar performance in this one.

Manchester United v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: It has been a hard week for David Moyes as manager of Manchester United as they have slipped up twice in quick succession, while the manner of the defeat to Newcastle United was of particular disappointment.

However, the manager will feel there are some positives in returning to Champions League action as that is where his Manchester United team have produced their best performances of the season. There is no pressure on this game with qualification to the last 16 already assured, but United will want to finish top of the Group.

David Moyes will also be able to pair Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney together for the first time since the 1-0 win over Arsenal and I can see the two producing something creative for the home side. United will also benefit from the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk can't afford to sit back and hope Bayer Leverkusen fail to beat an eliminated Real Sociedad and there may be more space to exploit than they would see in a Premier League game.

United have put together their best performances in this competition and I can see them picking up a morale boosting win in this one. They might not need a win to go through, but for confidence David Moyes will be hoping they can do that. I expect Shakhtar to cause problems, but they may be caught on the counter as they look to earn a result if they hear a different score coming from Spain.

At odds against, United do look worth chancing to earn a win in this one.


Chelsea v Steaua Bucharest Pick: Chelsea have responded well to their last 2 defeats over the last month and I am expecting them to get back on the horse in this one after the loss at Stoke City.

They should be too strong for Steaua Bucharest, especially as I am expecting a fair few of the first team to start in this one to ensure Chelsea finish top of the Group. They have scored plenty of goals at Stamford Bridge since the loss to Basel and the strikers have actually performed better in the Champions League than they have in the Premier League for the most part this season.

I don't think it will be straight-forward because Steaua Bucharest have been tougher to play away from home in recent weeks, but they were beaten comfortably in Schalke earlier in the campaign.

With the way Chelsea have been defending, I don't really want to be on them to cover the large looking Asian Handicaps, but I think the bigger price on them scoring at least 3 goals has to be considered.

Chelsea have hit that total in 3 of their last 5 home games and also hit at least that number in their last 2 games against Steaua Bucharest over the last nine months. With top spot up for grabs, I think Jose Mourinho will look to use this game as a confidence builder for the next month of football to be played and I can see Chelsea reaching 3 goals in this game.


Napoli v Arsenal Pick: This is a more important game for Napoli than it is for Arsenal when it comes to qualifying for the last 16 of the Champions League, especially as they need a big win to secure their place in the next round.

While Arsenal can afford a single goal loss, Arsene Wenger will be aware of the importance of finishing top of the Group, particularly this season and his Arsenal side have been burnt by that failure in the past.

The pressure is on Napoli to win this game and that could leave gaps to be exploited by Arsenal as the game goes on. You do have to respect the home record of Napoli in the Champions League and they have beaten Dortmund and Marseille here this season, but Arsenal have won 4 in a row away from home in the competition and they have the speed on the counter to make it five in a row in a game where the home team have to push on.

Of course, Arsenal have a big game on Saturday to prepare for, but I don't foresee Arsene Wenger making too many changes to his first team with qualification not 100% confirmed, and I do think Arsenal can win this one and are worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Benfica @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Juventus @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

Olympiacos - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Manchester United @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chelsea Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 2.88 Coral (1 Unit)

December Update: 5-5-1, + 3.01 Units (15 Units Staked, + 20.07% Yield)

November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 63-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2013 (December 7-9)

The World Cup draw was made on Friday and you can only imagine the disappointment of England that they ended up in the 'Group of Death' despite the fact that they were not the non-seeded European side that had to be moved out of Pot 4.

I wasn't that impressed with the manner in which the draw is conducted as there isn't the balance in the Groups that you would want to see- a couple of the Groups look far 'easier' thanks to the likes of Switzerland and Colombia being considered first seeds ahead of the Netherlands and Italy. Even with that in mind, there is enough football in the Group Stage that will have the neutrals salivating that I can only see a strong tournament next summer.


For the next six months, the World Cup will move to the back of fans minds as they concentrate on their club football and for some that means trying to pick up enough results this December to achieve their goals in the new year. A lot of things will become clearer at the end of the day on January 1st as teams will begin to find their place in the League, especially in the English Leagues where a lot of football will be played.


Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: Last season, Manchester United scored a lot of late goals that helped them win games that they had no real right to and this year it seems that the luck has gone the other way.

Manchester United created enough chances in the game against Everton to have won that one, although there are still some vulnerabilities in the United team that could be exploited by Newcastle United in this one.

I am expecting Alan Pardew to rely on the counter-attack as Everton did, while the absence of Wayne Rooney and possibly Robin Van Persie will make life a little easier for the Newcastle defenders in this game.

This is going to be another tough game for the home team as confidence can't be in a good place with the way recent results have gone. Manchester United haven't won any of their 3 Premier League games since supposedly getting back into the title race with a win over Arsenal and they can't afford to drop more points in this one.

Newcastle United won't roll over for them, despite the 3-0 loss at Swansea, and they have enough quality in midfield to give Manchester United problems.

I do think the home team can recover from Wednesday and grab the three points in this one, but it will be tight for sure. Under David Moyes, United have rarely looked like a team that is going to blow others away, and Newcastle are playing well enough to make this very competitive.

United have won 6 Premier League games this season and half of those have come by a single goal margin. I think United just want to get out of this game with the three points and might have another nervy game but they could sneak by with a single goal win in this one.


Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: This looks like one of the more straight-forward picks of the weekend in the Premier League and that is picking Liverpool to win this game by a couple of goals.

Nothing is as it seems though and it has to be remembered that West Ham United have proven to be a stubborn away team for much of the season and won 0-3 at Tottenham Hotspur. However, they have lost their last 2 games and better finishing from Crystal Palace will have seen them score more than the one goal they managed.

Unfortunately for Sam Allardyce, they are running into a Liverpool team that boasts Luis Suarez up front and one that has scored plenty of goals in their recent games at Anfield. This is definitely one of the tougher grounds to play at so far this season and Liverpool can get swarming on teams in front of their own fans.

An early goal would be big trouble for West Ham United in my opinion and I think Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap is the pick.


Southampton v Manchester City Pick: It seems that the 1-0 loss at Sunderland has angered Manchester City who have won 4 straight games since then and have scored 16 goals in those games. The biggest win may have been the one they recorded at West Brom during the week as there may have been a mental block to overcome from their away games in the Premier League and that result should show how capable they are.

There are still some vulnerabilities at the back that Southampton will feel they can expose, but I can't help feel that this side has hit the wall a little over the last couple of weeks. Three defeats on the bounce and 4 of their last 5 games may have dented some confidence, although I don't think they know how the lost to Aston Villa during the week.

Southampton do press teams, but they won't kick a team off the park and that may play into the hands of Manchester City who have a lot of talent in the final third. While Southampton will cause some problems, I don't doubt that Manchester City will cause plenty of their own with Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Negredo, Yaya Toure and Samir Nasri in excellent form.

I think City will win the game, but their odds have been shortened after the results this Wednesday to the point that they don't look much value. Instead, sticking to City winning the game in which both teams score looks the better option as Southampton have been able to find the net at home and it is very unlikely that the away side doesn't concede at least once in my opinion.


Stoke City v Chelsea Pick: This is an important game for Chelsea to try and pick up the three points and give Arsenal 24 hours to think about the challengers that are building up behind them.

Chelsea looked very good going forward in the win at Sunderland, but looked pretty poor defensively and that has to be a concern for a manager like Jose Mourinho. He will be expecting a much better effort here at Stoke City, particularly as the home team have been struggling for goals all season.

That has been the big problem for Stoke who don't have a lot of options up front and it says a lot that they have won 1 of their last 4 home games even though they have only conceded 1 goal. I think Mark Hughes will look to try and get something out of this game with that defensive shape that has been a staple of this group of Stoke players and they did hold Manchester City scoreless earlier in the campaign.

The lack of goals means Chelsea might only need one to get the three points on the board and you have to believe they have enough quality in the final third to unlock the door in this one. Chelsea to win with a clean sheet looks the best option for the game and will be my call.


West Brom v Norwich City Pick: West Brom have failed to win their last 4 games in the Premier League, but they have had a run of tough games and I think the one positive for the Baggies is that they have scored goals.

That could prove to be the difference for them in this game against Norwich City who have been conceding goals at an alarming rate away from home, although they did battle to a 0-1 win at Stoke City earlier in the season.

Norwich's latest thumping was 5-1 at Liverpool during the week, but Chris Hughton wouldn't have expected to pick up points there even if the performance wasn't what the fans would have wanted. This game is a much more winnable one for the Canaries, but the problems defensively haven't been limited to games against the better teams in the League.

West Brom have now scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 games at home in the Premier League and I can see them hitting that mark again in this one. They have enough in their attacking third to cause problems for Norwich, although I do expect a better effort from the away team too. West Brom have conceded a fair few goals themselves lately so Norwich will feel they can get a result in this one, but their away record is too much of a concern for me.

However, the home win is far too short and instead I will back West Brom to score at least twice in this one at odds against.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win by One Goal @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
West Brom Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)

December Update: 4-1-1, + 6.01 Units (8 Units Staked, + 75.13% Yield)

November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 63-63-1, + 2.55 Units (200 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Week 14 Picks 2013 (December 5-9)

After a couple of pretty terrible breaks in the Thanksgiving Day games, I was a little wary of the rest of the Week 13 action and just a touch concerned that I could have one of the worst weeks of the season so far. Thankfully, the picks on Sunday went my way for the most part and that keeps the season ticking along nicely as we get set for the final four weeks of the regular season.

There are still a lot of Play Off implications to be resolved in the coming weeks, but things may become a little clearer all around after Week 14 is completed. This is also the final week of the regular season for most Fantasy Football players and I have been fortunate enough to make the Play Offs in two of my three pools, while I can make the final pool as long as I win this week, although a loss would see my opponent take my spot in the final four.

Week 13 Thoughts

Mike Tomlin's sideline mistake: I am a big fan of Mike Tomlin, but there is no way that he didn't know exactly what he was doing in the final Thanksgiving Day game against the Baltimore Ravens.

Jacoby Jones was returning a kick back for what looked like a Touchdown and Tomlin was standing at the edge of the field, only to move at the last second while viewing the play going down on the jumbotron. The move at the last second also meant Jones broke his stride just a touch and also moved towards the middle of the field, a move that allowed him to be tackled around 30 yards short of the end zone.

It proved to be a big tackle when it came down to the spread for the game as Baltimore essentially left four points on the field and the Steelers secured a back door cover despite losing the game. The NFL isn't foolish enough to think that no one is gambling on their games and they had to do something to show that they won't tolerate this, while Tomlin admitted that he had to accept the fine to ensure the 'integrity' of the NFL is kept intact.

A $100,000 fine for the Head Coach won't keep the guys in the Sportsbook happy, but the NFL had to show they can't accept these things to happen on the field and at least will keep people coming back to the counters in the coming weeks.

AFC Wild Card Race going to the wire: I read in a few places this week that the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers are in desperation mode after losing last week, but the final AFC Wild Card spot is still very open and I don't think either team is dead in the water just yet.

OK, I take that back- the New York Jets are not going anywhere with that atrocious Offense, but the Steelers have every chance to get back in contention by beating the Miami Dolphins this week.

Out of the teams chasing the Play Offs, I still think the Steelers have the best schedule to steal (pardon the pun) the final Wild Card spot ahead of the Ravens and the Dolphins, so I really believe their demise has been overstated by the media.

As I said at the beginning of the post, a lot of the Play Off implications could become clearer this week and a Miami win would put the Steelers away in my opinion... But if Pittsburgh win, the race for the Number 6 seed is still very much alive between a number of teams.

All NFC roads to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle: A couple of weeks ago, I made my opinion clear that the New Orleans Saints won't have enough to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks in the Play Offs.

I was then unsurprised to see Seattle knock off New Orleans on Monday Night Football and effectively wrap up the Number 1 seed in the NFC as they have the tie-breaker over both New Orleans and Carolina and are also far too ahead of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West.

Any team going into Seattle are going to find it very difficult to beat this Seahawks team, although I have called the two potential Wild Card teams (Carolina and San Francisco) as the two teams that have the best shot to do that.

I would expect both to wrap up Number 5 and Number 6 in the NFC, although Seattle are probably hoping Carolina can surpass New Orleans in the NFC South to hold off that potential game.

San Francisco have the Defense and an Offense that is getting healthier to cause problems for Seattle, although they have lost on their last 2 visits to that Stadium, while Carolina's Defense is another that could cause problems.

However, Seattle are hard to back against now to reach the big game in New York in February with home field advantage almost secured and I think Seahawks fans will be quietly confident of their chances as long as no major injuries affect them down the stretch.

My Play Off teams: These are only my predictions and there weren't too many results in Week 13 that actually changed my opinion from last week.

AFC: 1) Denver, 2) New England, 3) Cincinnati, 4) Indianapolis, 5) Kansas City, 6) Pittsburgh

NFC: 1) Seattle, 2) New Orleans, 3) Philadelphia, 4) Detroit, 5) Carolina, 6) San Francisco

Top Ten

1) Seattle Seahawks (11-1): Beat down of New Orleans and sowing up home field pretty much makes Seattle number 1.

2) Denver Broncos (10-2): Still in control of finishing with the Number 1 seed in the AFC after wrapping up AFC West.

3) New England Patriots (9-3): Escaped with the win in Houston, but Patriots are looking stronger in each passing week, although Defense is a concern.

4) New Orleans Saints (9-3): Dropped three positions from last week, but I still think they finish with Number 2 seed in NFC.

5) Carolina Panthers (9-3): Big game in the Superdome this week and a chance to move to the top of the NFC South and the Number 2 seed.

6) San Francisco 49ers (8-4): Offense getting healthier and Defense improved with Aldon Smith getting back to his best- big game against Seattle this week though.

7) Cincinnati Bengals (8-4): Likely going to win the AFC North, but a game to decide seeding place this week against the Colts.

8) Kansas City Chiefs (9-3): Dropped three straight and Defense banged up- Kansas City are fortunate to have the 9 wins in their bank.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (7-5): Important win over Arizona last week to prove they are for real, but another big test against the Lions this week.

10) Detroit Lions (7-5): Detroit's win over Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day may prove too much for the Packers and Chicago Bears to overcome.

Bottom Five

32) Houston Texans (2-10): Showed life in their loss to New England, but still came up short and have lost 10 straight games.

31) Washington Redskins (3-9): I thought Washington were going to beat the Giants last week with the way they played in the first half, but they couldn't put them away and have lost another game.

30) Atlanta Falcons (3-9): A win for Atlanta last week, but fortune smiled on them with Buffalo fumbling the games away.

29) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9): I didn't think Jacksonville would win one game, let alone three, and they deserve to move up the Rankings if not quite out of the bottom five.

28) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9): Tampa Bay played badly last week, but I was torn between them and Minnesota for this final place and I wouldn't be surprised if they are out of this section again next week.

Week 14 Picks

Thanksgiving Day was tough with Oakland kicking a field goal to cover in a game they were trailing by 10 points with 35 seconds left- it was the right decision, but I've seen too many Head Coaches screw that moment up to be happy. It only was compounded later by the Mike Tomlin incident and the back door cover from Pittsburgh.

However, Sunday was a much better day for the picks and that has kept the season totals moving in the right direction. Last season, it was between Week 12 and Week 16 that things got a little out of sync for me, so I have been glad to come through the first two of those weeks in a decent position for the season, With a little care and attention, hopefully the last four weeks of the season will go the same way.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: This could be a game that ends up deciding which of these teams picks up the Number 1 pick in the NFL Draft next year, but that doesn't mean it is one that will appeal to those tuning in for Thursday Night Football this week.

These two only met a couple of weeks ago at Reliant Stadium in a game that ended with a Jaguars win by a Touchdown and I am surprised by the fact that the Texans are now favoured by more than a field goal in this game.

We have seen Maurice Jones-Drew pick up his game in the last three weeks and he is giving the Jaguars a semblance of a running game and I expect him to find running room in this one. That will keep the Offense in third and manageable situations and I think Chad Henne will be able to move the chains in that position.

The Houston Defense has played the pass pretty well this season, but there have been signs that they are beginning to struggle in that area too over the last three games.

On the other side of the ball, I am not expecting Ben Tate to have the same big performance that he did against New England as Jacksonville have played the run strongly. Over the course of the season, they have struggled, but they have held their last three opponents to just 2.5 yards per carry and that will keep Case Keenum in a tough position to make his plays.

Keenum will have some success against this Secondary when he looks to pass deep to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, but it is a big ask of the rookie to keep making those plays from third and long situations if the running game struggles.

I also am surprised by how much weight so many are putting into the Houston game against New England- that was their 'Super Bowl' and they could have a let down in this one coming off a short week against a 'terrible' team like the Jags. Even if Houston win, I won't be ashamed of making this pick as a team losing 10 straight should not be favoured by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.

Jacksonville can't be trusted completely, so this will only be a one unit pick in a game the Jaguars have a real chance of winning outright.


Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Joe Flacco will be over the moon to see Dennis Pitta back as another receiving threat, just in time for the 6-6 Ravens to try and make a move that will see them return to the Play Offs to defend their Super Bowl title. That could be the all-important against the Minnesota Secondary that has continued to struggle and I expect Baltimore to make hay through the air.

The Vikings won't be able to contain the Offense by focusing on Torrey Smith and I expect Joe Flacco to be able to have his biggest game of the season. The Offensive Line has to protect Flacco more consistently, while rain is a concern, but Baltimore should get things going through the air in this one.

Ray Rice has also shown some signs of life in recent games, while the Vikings run Defense has begun to wear down as the season has progressed and they have allowed the last three teams they have faced to rush for almost 5 yards per carry.

I think the running game will be important with the weather conditions as they are, and Adrian Peterson has also found his game back on track in recent games. He is facing a Baltimore Defense that keys in on the run and will force Matt Cassel to make the plays with his arm, but I still expect Peterson to grab his yards in this one.

If Baltimore can keep Peterson in check, they will force Matt Cassel in third and long situations and I would back the Baltimore Defense to win that battle more often. With Minnesota coming off back to back overtime games against Divisional rivals, this doesn't look a great spot for them and I like the Ravens to cover with Joe Flacco making a few plays with his arm to see them cover.


Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Neither team has much left to play for this season, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown enough life in recent games to think they can win this game, especially against a Buffalo Bills team that lost their last game in heartbreaking fashion.

EJ Manuel hasn't played as well on the road this season either, although he will be able to hand the ball off to either CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson to keep the chains moving. Tampa Bay have struggled against the run in the last three games, so the Bills should be able to keep the team in third and manageable situations if they are not grabbing first downs with their running game.

I also think the Buccaneers can give the ball to Bobby Rainey to keep their Offense moving forward themselves, and that will give Mike Glennon the chance to hit the deep ball too. The run game may help slow down the pass rush the Bills will throw towards them and also give Glennon enough time to try and find his receiving threats.

Buffalo have been strong against the pass in their recent games, so it won't be easy for Glennon, but getting a running game will be critical for him and that may be enough to make the plays from third and short situations, while play-action will also be key.

Home-field and Buffalo coming off a loss in terrible fashion is enough for me to have a small interest in the Buccaneers.


Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots might still be winning games, but they have not been impressed with the way the Defense has been playing the last couple of games and will be looking for an improvement in this one.

It is going to be cold in Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon, but I don't think that will slow down what New England should be able to do with the ball in their hands. You have to credit the Cleveland Defense which has played well all season, but New England could match up with them very well when Tom Brady is throwing because I don't think Joe Haden will be as much of a factor as he has been this year.

Haden will cover one of the wideouts, but Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are unlikely to be in that position, while Shane Vereen is another threat coming out of the backfield. The Patriots will use the ground game to keep the Browns honest, but it will be down to Brady to move the chains through the air and I believe he is able to do that.

That means Jason Campbell, who looks one hit from being knocked out of the game, will have to try and keep up. He will look to Josh Gordon, but will find his best Receiver covered by Aqib Talib, even in his limited capacity. That means Campbell has to look elsewhere, and he will have to be careful of the pocket collapsing in on him with the injuries he has taken in recent weeks.

The Patriots have struggled to contain the run, but Cleveland have also struggled to open running lanes so New England should be able to force Campbell to make the plays with his arm. The last couple of weeks have seen the Patriots win games from behind, but I believe they have more control in this one and are able to get away from Cleveland and cover the spread.


Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: I am struggling to think of what the New York Jets have done in recent games to have them as a field goal favourite against any team and that includes the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders have had a few extra days to get ready for this game with a Thanksgiving Day appearance behind them and they have a Quarter Back in Matt McGloin who seems happy to throw the ball out of the pocket. They will need him at his best as the Jets are one of the toughest Defenses in football to run against and I don't think an Oakland team missing their top two Running Backs is going to gain a lot of yards on the ground in this one.

The pressure up front will be another concern for the Raiders whose own Offensive Line has struggled, but the Jets Secondary has struggled and McGloin could make some big plays in this one.

That doesn't account for how bad Geno Smith has looked in the last three games since coming back off a bye and the Offense is accounting for less than 7 points per game in those three losses. I expect the Jets will be able to use Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to at least run the ball effectively, but the Raiders will look to force Smith to make the plays with his arm.

I am expecting the Jets to at least keep Smith in third and manageable, but can Smith make the plays? Oakland are actually surprisingly effective at preventing the pass, while they should get pressure up front against this Offensive Line. That could prevent the Jets sustaining drives and I think the 3 point head start for the road team is a touch on the high side.


Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers Pick: This is another game where I don't understand why the home team are getting as many points to cover as they are.

The Green Bay Packers are missing Aaron Rodgers for another week and while they are in a desperate position to win, I don't think Matt Flynn is someone that I would want to lay 3.5 points on him doing so against a team like Atlanta that have picked up form and can score points.

Both teams should have success through the air, and both are capable of running the ball against the Defense they will face- Steven Jackson has shown signs of life in the last couple of weeks, but the Falcons may look to load the box and force the Packers away from Eddie Lacy in this one.

I think both will struggle to contain the aerial threat, but I would trust Matt Ryan more than I would Flynn and I can see the Falcons, who have lost Play Off home games to the Packers in the recent past, look to put another nail in the Green Bay post-season hopes in this one.

This looks like a game that may be decided by a field goal either way, so the 3.5 head start is hard to ignore.


Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos can't afford to drop a game in their bid to finish as the Number 1 seed in the AFC for a second year in succession and I think they will be able to see off Tennessee in this game.

The weather may be the only factor for the Denver Offense to worry about, while Tennessee can get a decent pass rush together, but it would still be a surprise if the Broncos didn't score at least 30 points in this one.

Tennessee's biggest hope is to establish Chris Johnson and try and sustain long drives which will keep Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense on the sidelines, but that will also mean Ryan Fitzpatrick making plays with his arm. He is an erratic Quarter Back that is capable of putting together a mistake-free game, but can end up in a vicious circle if he is forced to throw to keep the Titans competitive in this one.

The Titans are just not built to come back from large deficits and that is a real possibility against Denver- I just feel if the Broncos get a two score lead by half time, the Titans could unravel in this one and Denver pull away for a comfortable win.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This is a big rivalry game so I don't expect a let up from the Seattle Seahawks despite having a big lead when it comes to wrapping up the Number 1 seed in the NFC.

They would love to wrap up their Play Off berth with a win over the San Francisco 49ers, a win that would once again put their rivals Play Off hopes in a precarious position. However, the Secondary is a little banged up and the 49ers now have their full complement of weapons back this week so I think we may see a reverse from their game earlier this season.

I don't believe anyone would blow out the Seahawks, but the 49ers may hold the edge in a game that is far more important for their long-term hopes than it is for Seattle. Michael Crabtree's return to the line up means teams have to focus on more than Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin, although there is a concern on a couple of starters on the Offensive Line which would cause big problems for the 49ers.

Both teams are likely going to have more running lanes than would perhaps be expected when these Defenses are in town and Russell Wilson is a Quarter Back I wouldn't feel comfortable opposing too many times. I just feel the Seahawks put in a lot in their Monday Night Football win over New Orleans and may come up short in this one.

I believe Colin Kaepernick is ready to turn a corner for the season and has been improving the last three weeks- with his additional weapons, I like the 49ers in this one.


Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints Offense looked devoid of ideas in their loss on Monday Night Football, but they are back in their 'happy place' and I am expecting a big bounce back from them.

New Orleans are a completely different proposition when they play in front of their rabid fan base and while the Panthers Defense is legit, I do think the home field and match up problems will favour the Saints in this one.

The Saints Defense is also playing better against the run in recent games and I am not of the believe that Cam Newton can beat them solely through the pass, because he doesn't have the same weapons that Drew Brees can rely upon. Newton will be scramble around, but the Saints pass rush is pretty good and I can see Rob Ryan firing up the Defense to prove they are better than they showed last week.

There are not too many times that the Saints don't perform in front of their own fans and I like them to recover and take control of the NFC South in this Sunday Night Football affair.

MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 63-47-2, + 22.96 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units