Weekend Football Picks 2017 (December 16-18)

You do begin to understand how much football is being played by the top Premier League players at this time of the year when noting another round of fixtures are ready to be played so soon.

It is a big time for rotation and trying to get the best out of the players as teams look for vital points at the top and bottom of the Premier League table.


Before the Bournemouth game on Wednesday, I had written a short piece about Manchester United which can be read here.


Now onto another round of picks before we can all have a little break between this weekend and next Friday when it all goes again. The League Cup Quarter Finals are played on Tuesday and Wednesday, but for the majority of the big names this will be a week of rest before a run of four more games in the space of ten days to conclude the festive period.


Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: With the fixtures coming as quickly as they are at the moment, it can be difficult to know how much rotation Claude Puel and Roy Hodgson want to put into their starting elevens. Both will be looking at this as a very winnable fixture for Leicester City and Crystal Palace respectively, and the early Saturday kick off should be one in which both teams push for the win.

It is a big week coming up for Leicester City who play three home games against Palace, Manchester City and Manchester United. The middle game comes in the League Cup and Puel will take that seriously having guided Southampton to the Final last season, and I think the Leicester City players can come in with plenty of confidence to an important week for them.

Having 4 straight wins behind them helps and Leicester City have been playing very well at home. They have won 4 of their last 5 games at the King Power Stadium and so this is a team who will believe they have the ability to put another three points on the board and get a little closer to the top four.

They will have to work hard to break down a Crystal Palace team who are unbeaten in 6 games in the Premier League. However this is a team who have struggled for goals away from home and I think that could be a problem for Crystal Palace here at a ground where they have lost on their last couple of visits.

The lack of goals is something Hodgson is working on and even though they have earned back to back clean sheets at West Brom and Brighton, I do think Leicester City have more firepower which can be difficult to contain. It may be that Crystal Palace try and soak up the pressure and use Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend on the counter attack, but defensive injuries won't help the visitors here.

I imagine it will be a competitive game with little between them, but Leicester City have the confidence of plenty of wins in recent weeks and I think that helps them find a winner in this fixture.


Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: There have been a couple of excuses offered up by Arsene Wenger as to why his Arsenal side have underperformed in the draws at Southampton and West Ham United over the last eight days, but privately the Frenchman cannot be happy. While it can be difficult to keep fatigue out of the bodies of the players, Wenger and the Arsenal fans would have expected so much more.

Slipping down to 7th in the Premier League table is not a concern for now considering Arsenal are a point behind 4th placed Tottenham Hotspur, but The Gunners cannot afford to drop more points this weekend. They will feel they have to take advantage of the fact that Tottenham Hotspur travel to Manchester City and both Manchester United and Liverpool play away from home on Sunday, and Arsenal will at least feel better in familiar surroundings.

Arsenal were beaten 1-3 by Manchester United last time out at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League, but they have been very strong here going back a few months. Goals have been an issue on their travels, but that has not been the case at home and I really do feel like Newcastle United could be on the end of another tough day in the office.

If Arsenal fans feel their team is out of form, they will have to spare a thought for Newcastle United fans who have seen their team lose 7 of their last 8 League games to land just outside the relegation zone. The new ownership cannot take over quick enough and it has been a huge task for Rafa Benitez to get a tune out of a squad that currently does not look good enough at this level.

Newcastle United have recently taken the lead at both Manchester United and Chelsea, but on both occasions they were well beaten in a 4-1 and 3-1 loss respectively. I think they will find it tough to contain Arsenal too despite the tactical advice Benitez will give and Arsenal definitely play better at the Emirates Stadium than they do on their travels in the League.

Goals have not been a problem at home and Arsenal can extend their run to 6 straight wins over Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium. I expect The Gunners can match both Manchester United and Chelsea in winning this fixture by at least a couple of goals on the day and I will look for the home team to cover the Asian Handicap here.

5 of the 7 Arsenal home wins in the League have come by at least a two goal margin and 3 of their last 4 home wins over Newcastle United have done the same. I will look for that to occur here too.


Brighton v Burnley Pick: This is one of those games where you can't get your head around which team is favoured and that has made the 'underdog' an appealing team to back on the Asian Handicap.

Before I saw the price for this match, I actually thought Brighton would be around 2.88, the draw around 3.30 and the Burnley win to be around 2.50 considering how well the latter have been playing. Add in a poor run for Brighton and I really couldn't see anything other than Burnley being favoured to win here and at those prices it would have been a watching brief as far as I am concerned.

Instead Brighton are favoured and you can get a decent price on Burnley with a start on the Asian Handicap which seems ridiculous. Yes Burnley lost at Leicester City recently, but they have won matches at Everton, Southampton and Bournemouth over the last couple of months and no one will be able to tell me that Brighton are superior to those teams.

In fact Brighton were perhaps a little fortunate to draw with Stoke City at home recently and the 2-0 loss at Huddersfield Town last weekend says a lot about the confidence.

Burnley don't score a lot of goals which can make it difficult to trust them, but it is hard to see them losing at the Amex Stadium. That makes the start appealing enough which will return a winner in the case of the draw and Burnley are the more likely winners overall in my opinion and so look the right team to back.

I can imagine Burnley are tipped up quite a lot and we know that can burn everybody at the same time, but they look the right side for me.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: There were a couple of angles I considered for this fixture and both involved seeing a few goals on Saturday afternoon. I considered backing at least three goals to be scored and also considered both teams to score, but ultimately I have settled on backing Chelsea to keep their strong run at home going.

The Blues may have drawn with Atletico Madrid last time out at Stamford Bridge, but they had won 5 straight here in all competitions prior to that. There has been an improvement in recent performances from Chelsea barring the 1-0 loss at West Ham United and I also think having an extra day to recover for this fixture will work to the hosts favour.

Alvaro Morata should be back to lead the line for Chelsea having been rested during the win at Huddersfield Town, while Antonio Conte has the likes of Eden Hazard and Willian showing positive form. That should mean Chelsea are able to dominate the play against a Southampton team who can be well organised, but who have to pick themselves up from a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Leicester City.

I do think Southampton can cause some problems on the counter attack with the pace they have, but they had some key players last the full ninety minutes on Wednesday. Chelsea had the chance to give Hazard and Morata a rest and I think that can make a difference here.

You have to respect Southampton for the way they have played in narrow losses to Manchester United and Manchester City, while they also earned a home draw with Arsenal last weekend. However they were crushed at Liverpool recently and I think Chelsea will be able to take advantage of any tiredness that may exist in the Southampton squad.

Both games last season were won by a couple of goals by Chelsea and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Stoke City v West Ham United Pick: Games in December aren't going to be considered 'deciders' but this one has all the makings of a relegation six pointer for both Stoke City and West Ham United. It is of particular importance to Mark Hughes who is beginning to feel the pressure as manager of Stoke City and this is sure to be a big game on Saturday afternoon.

It is going to be interesting to see what kind of reaction the Stoke City players get having been confronted by some of the fans after the 5-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium. They were much better in the 1-0 loss at Burnley during the week and Hughes has to see if he can extract a similar level of performances from his players.

They can't afford to go behind though as the fans may make this a toxic atmosphere for the home team in that situation. However this looks to be a good spot for Stoke City who played on Tuesday while West Ham United produced another huge effort in their goalless draw with Arsenal on Wednesday.

That extra day of recovery from a game in which Stoke City were arguably considered the better side at Turf Moor can be huge compared with West Ham United who were putting plenty of effort in their games against Chelsea and Arsenal.

It will be interesting to see how West Ham United can freshen things up in time for this one, but I also think The Hammers can have more consistent success going forward. This time they are facing a Stoke City team who have conceded plenty of goals both at home and away and West Ham United can at least cause problems early in the fixture while the energy remains high.

There has been an improvement from West Ham United defensively in their last few games, but this is a team who have struggled away from home. West Ham United have conceded at least twice in their last 5 away games in all competitions and I can see both teams having their moments in this one.

It does feel the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals shared out. The last 8 in all competitions at the Bet365 Stadium have seen at least that number of goals returned, while 4 of the last 5 West Ham United away games have done the same.

Before last season there had been 3 games in a row at Stoke City between these clubs which had featured at least three goals and I will back the odds against quotes for that to happen here.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The big game in the Premier League this weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium and neutrals all around England will be hoping Tottenham Hotspur can stop the steamroller of Manchester City from continuing what looks like an easy march towards the Premier League title.

The recent form of Tottenham Hotspur will offer some encouragement, but Manchester City are playing at an extremely high level and they have already proven their worth with wins at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford this season. They have also recorded big wins over Liverpool and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium and it is tough to see how Tottenham Hotspur can slow them down.

As well as Tottenham Hotspur have done under Mauricio Pochettino's guidance as manager, this is a team who have struggled to match the top teams in England when having to travel to those grounds. This season Tottenham Hotspur have not played well in defeats at Manchester United and Arsenal, while Chelsea have also beaten them at Wembley Stadium.

The away record is the focus though and Tottenham Hotspur have lost 5 of their last 6 away games at the top English clubs (lost twice to Manchester United, lost at Chelsea, lost at Liverpool and Arsenal in that time). The one exception saw Tottenham Hotspur come back from 2-0 down to earn a 2-2 draw at the Etihad Stadium but suffice to say it is a completely different prospect trying to do that against this current Manchester City team.

Recent weeks have seen Manchester City find it a little tougher to win matches, but the confidence from the win at Old Trafford cannot be understated. I also don't think Tottenham Hotspur have been playing at their best defensively with three key pieces missing for them this weekend to add to those problems.

Tottenham Hotspur should be set out to at least challenge Manchester City on the counter attack and there is some pace in the squad that can cause problems for a backline that is not the best. However being that positive is likely going to mean Manchester City also have more spaces to exploit and I think they are going to be a little too good for their visitors on Saturday afternoon.

The defeats Tottenham Hotspur have suffered to the big clubs this season is a concern for them as they now face the one team who have been head and shoulders above all others.

Personally I would love to see Tottenham Hotspur find a way to stop the Manchester City winning run, but unfortunately I think they are not quite playing up to the level that is going to be required. With a poor recent away record in the Premier League, I think Tottenham Hotspur will need to ride their luck to avoid another away loss at a big six Premier League club.

With that in mind, I will back Manchester City to beat a third rival at the Etihad Stadium by at least a couple of goals and I will look for the home team to cover the Asian Handicap even if I would love to be wrong on this occasion.


West Brom v Manchester United Pick: There are a couple of ways you can play this fixture this weekend and I do think the first of the two live Sunday fixtures in the Premier League could be a surprisingly exciting game.

On the face of things it may not seem that way with West Brom likely to set themselves up to be hard to beat, but Alan Pardew has a different mindset to Tony Pulis. While Pulis would be content to frustrate Manchester United, Pardew will want his side to get forward and have a go at their visitors and I do think the additional space provided will work well for Manchester United.

West Brom have yet to score for Alan Pardew, but scoring goals has not been much of a problem for Manchester United of late. They have managed seven goals in away games at Watford and Arsenal, but Manchester United may also offer West Brom some encouragement having kept just a single clean sheet in the last 6 away from home in all competitions.

The chances that Watford and Arsenal created will make West Brom believe they can have success with a bit of positivity, while the home team should be a threat from set pieces. Both Manchester City and Bournemouth caused problems for Manchester United from set pieces so there are signs that West Brom could have success doing that.

I am a little concerned for West Brom considering the amount of energy invested in the goalless draw at Anfield though. While Manchester United also had to work harder than expected, the West Brom effort would have been both mental and physical in a tough environment and that is likely to have sapped some energy and with less options to rotate than Jose Mourinho has at United.

Both Manchester City and Chelsea have played here in the League this season and both managed to score at least three times. With Manchester United showing some real bite in the final third at Watford and Arsenal, they could become the latest to get in front at The Hawthorns and then pick off their hosts who will try and come forward.

That is why both the over 2.5 goals market and Manchester United covering the Asian Handicap appeal here. The tiredness factor could see United pull away in the second half with a couple of quick strikes to finish off their hosts, but I also think West Brom could play a part in this one before tiredness perhaps takes over.

I can see both markets hitting here at odds against.

The more likely feels like Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap and I will back that to happen in another important win for Jose Mourinho's men ahead of another big week, but I will also look for at least three goals to be scored in this fixture.


Bournemouth v Liverpool Pick: This is an important game for both Bournemouth and Liverpool who have not had the best weeks in terms of results. Both teams will feel they should have had a few more points on the board than they have earned, and now both Bournemouth and Liverpool are looking for vital points at the bottom and top of the Premier League respectively.

Games between Bournemouth and Liverpool have tended to be very good viewing for the neutrals in the last couple of years and this is another that should feature a few goals.

With the way Bournemouth approach things under Eddie Howe, this is a team that will challenge Liverpool and the porous defence which has been very weak when playing away from Anfield. Only three Premier League clubs have conceded more goals than Liverpool away from home to this point, and Bournemouth will feel they can at least create a few chances in a bid for the upset.

On the other hand it will be tough for Bournemouth to contain a Liverpool team who have scored 20 away League goals which is only surpassed by Manchester City who have also played one more away game. The Reds have been rampant in recent away games which makes them very dangerous and an attack that has not been at their best in the last couple of games never feels that far away from getting things turned back around.

Liverpool have scored at least three goals in wins at West Ham United, Stoke City and Brighton in the Premier League, while they were also 0-3 up at half time in Sevilla in the Champions League. That makes me lean towards them opening up against a Bournemouth team that will allow Liverpool to express themselves and I expect the away side to create chances here.

That makes it a fun game and the layers are not offering great prices on at least three goals being shared out. I expect that will happen here, but I also think Liverpool win the game and you can put those markets together for an odds against quote on Sunday.

All 4 Liverpool away Premier League wins has come in high scoring games, and Bournemouth home games against the big six English clubs have tended to produce goals. Recently Chelsea won here 0-1, but over the last three seasons Bournemouth home games against the top six clubs have ended with a 10-4 lean towards three or more goals compared with two and fewer.

I do think Liverpool are a dangerous away side and they can bounce back for a win here on Sunday and I will look for that to happen in a high scoring fixture.


Everton v Swansea City Pick: There has to be some real discussion at the Liberty Stadium as to whether they should be making a change in the manager's office as Paul Clement has struggled to get a consistent run together. Being bottom of the Premier League at Christmas has historically been a tough position to recover from and Swansea City have not shown the kind of form to think they can get out of their current predicament.

Now they have to travel to face an Everton team who have been rejuvenated by Sam Allardyce and have subsequently won 4 of 5 games in all competitions. The wins in the Premier League have come behind some strong defensive efforts and Everton are going for a fourth straight win at Goodison Park in the Premier League.

You have to think they can do that, although the short odds on Everton suggests the layers have completely forgotten about how much this club was suffering before Allardyce arrived.

That makes it hard to back Everton at short odds, especially as Swansea City have been a well organised team away from home. The problem both at home and on their travels has been the lack of goals being scored and that may be the difference here with Wilfried Bony potentially missing too.

Bony has scored the last couple of Swansea City League goals so his absence would be a blow and I do think Everton are the more likely winners.

Instead of taking them at a short price, I will have a small interest on Everton continuing their recent trend of clean sheets in their wins. All 4 wins in the last couple of weeks have come with a clean sheet including at Newcastle United during the week.

Swansea City have only scored 4 away goals in the Premier League and half of those came in a 0-2 win at Crystal Palace. I will thus have a small interest in Everton winning this one with a clean sheet at a nice looking price.

MY PICKS: Leicester City @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Brom-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (December 16-19)

This is the final round of domestic football until Boxing Day and there are some big matches in England before the mini-break for the players. They will then go into another week of three League games in a short space of time, while the rest of Europe heads into a Winter Break which will essentially last one week longer than England's.

It is a big weekend for the top teams in the Premier League who are trying to chase down the gap Chelsea have opened at the top of the table. It is Chelsea who come out and play before anyone else in the Premier League, and it could be a hugely enjoyable Christmas if they can win the game knowing Manchester City play Arsenal, and Liverpool and Manchester United have very difficult away games at teams inside the top eight of the Premier League.

They are already strong favourites and that position might have strengthened by the time the results are in the books on Monday evening.

The bottom clubs will be looking to avoid finishing in 20th place going into Christmas Day with that being death knell for so many over the last twenty-four seasons in the Premier League. Sunderland need at least a point and hope either Hull City or Swansea City lose and I think there is every chance they will avoid being bottom at the end of this round of games.

The Championship also continues, while the top European Leagues get ready for their short break.


It was another solid week for the picks during the week which has helped me turn December back around and into the black. It's only just back into that position though which means the last three rounds are all going to be big in determining whether this will be another positive month, or one when I take a setback.


Crystal Palace v Chelsea Pick: The Premier League leaders open this round of Premier League games and have a chance to really put the foot down and take complete control of the title race. A run of 10 consecutive Premier League wins in a row has seen Chelsea open a lead at the top of the table, but this is going to be far from an easy game for them.

A London derby against a team that can score goals will be a test for Chelsea who seem to have found a way to ride their luck and then show some real clinical finishing when chances are presented their way. They needed some big saves from the goalkeeper to preserve the win at Sunderland while there have been numerous times during their 10 game winning run in the League when teams have had chances to finish Chelsea off and missed those opportunities.

Do I really think Crystal Palace are capable of being successful where other teams haven't? No, I don't think they will be, but I do think they can play their part in what could be a high-scoring game.

The run of games featuring at least three goals continued for Crystal Palace in the 1-2 defeat to Manchester United on Wednesday, while that means both teams have scored in 7 of their last 8 Premier League games overall. I can see Crystal Palace causing a few problems, but they look vulnerable defensively and Chelsea are playing with another confidence in the final third to expose those problems.

Chelsea are slightly shorter to win here than Manchester United, but the bigger price of seeing at least three goals shared out is the one that appeals to me the most.


West Brom v Manchester United Pick: This is going to be a really big test for Manchester United when they visit The Hawthornes for the late Saturday afternoon kick off in front of the television cameras. As well as Manchester United have played, West Brom are a team high on confidence and scoring plenty of goals in front of their own fans.

They have a big team which is going to be able to cause problems from set pieces and West Brom have enjoyed their home games with Manchester United in recent seasons. The Baggies have lost 1 of their last 4 home games against Manchester United although I expect the away team to cause a few problems of their own with the likes of Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic beginning to stamp their authority on the team.

The performances have been solid from Manchester United all season, but now they are producing results although I would not be rushing out to back them at a very short price to win here. They are shorter than they were at Crystal Palace and West Brom have been in significantly better form than the former which makes the prices look completely wrong.

Instead I am going to focus on there being at least three goals shared out between clubs who have been showing plenty of attacking intent. Tony Pulis can be criticised for attempting to stifle big teams than having a go at them, but that wasn't the case at Chelsea last weekend and a similar performance will give West Brom a chance of the upset.

However I also think Manchester United will pose problems the other way when you think West Brom have had 1 clean sheet in their last 6 home games. There is enough attacking talent for Manchester United to create chances, and I would not be surprised to see goals at both ends.

Before the game last season, 8 in a row at The Hawthornes between West Brom and Manchester United had ended with at least three goals shared out. The game last season was spoiled by an early sending off for Juan Mata and a very negative response from a manager (Louis Van Gaal rather than Tony Pulis), but this one looks to have two teams in scoring form facing one another.

As much as I would like to see Manchester United win this game, I do think it will be in the balance at times as to which way it goes, but I am expecting at least three goals. At odds against that looks an appealing price and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out by these teams.


Bournemouth v Southampton Pick: During the week I picked Stoke City with a start on the Asian Handicap because I was not sure why they had been set as the underdog in a home game against Southampton. This weekend Bournemouth are a home underdog against The Saints and I still think the latter are being overrated considering their poor away form.

Losing Charlie Austin has taken away a big goal threat for Southampton and they struggled to break down a resilient Stoke City team without him despite the home team being reduced to ten men from the 23rd minute.

Southampton might find more space against a Bournemouth team that likes to get forward, but this is a team that have also been very strong at The Vitality Stadium. They have proven they can score goals and even getting one might be enough to ensure they avoid defeat.

Once again the layers are offering a small start on the Asian Handicap which will return some profits if Bournemouth avoid defeat. A full payout is only available if Bournemouth win the game, but I do think they are more likely to do that than Southampton who have won 1 of their last 9 away from home in all competitions.

The lack of goals in the Southampton squad without Austin has to be a big concern and something that needs to be addressed in the January transfer window, but for now I will back Bournemouth with the Asian Handicap start.


Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: There is going to be a seven day break for teams after this round of fixtures and the final two live games of the Premier League weekend look they could give the neutrals plenty of entertainment. The first comes from The Etihad Stadium on Sunday when Manchester City take on Arsenal which is a big game for both clubs to prove they are going to be a threat to win the Premier League title in the second half of the season.

Manchester City have not been in great form, but they at least beat Watford here during the week for a confidence boost. On the other hand Arsenal had been playing really well before throwing away the result at Everton and ending a long unbeaten run in the Premier League.

That means both teams will head into this fixture with something to prove but I am not anticipating a tight, tactical game. Instead I think Pep Guardiola and Arsene Wenger will want to send their teams out to express themselves and win this game and I think that leads to an entertaining game.

I am surprised Manchester City are a similar price to when they hosted Chelsea because of the absence of Sergio Aguero in this game. Arsenal also have a decent record at The Etihad Stadium in recent visits and I think there will be a few people out there tempted to back The Gunners to avoid defeat at a decent price.

Personally I think backing at least three goals to be scored in this game at a similar price is more appealing as both teams look decent going forward, but vulnerable at the back. Manchester City's defensive problems have been well documented and Arsenal have the likes of Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil and Theo Walcott who will feel they can create chances and score goals here.

On the other side of the field, Arsenal have not kept a clean sheet in 11 games in all competitions and they have conceded in 6 straight away games. Even without Sergio Aguero, Manchester City have solid players in the final third who can expose those defensive problems and I expect they can create chances too.

This has the feelings of a 2-1 kind of game with both teams capable of winning the fixture. I do think there will be at least one scored at both ends and I will back this game to produce at least three goals on Sunday afternoon for the neutrals to enjoy.


Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley Pick: The return of Harry Kane has seen Tottenham Hotspur rediscover their shooting boots at home and they head into this fixture having scored at least three goals in their last 4 home games, although one of those was at Wembley Stadium. Those goals being scored coupled with Burnley's struggles for goals away from home has seen Tottenham Hotspur put down as a short favourite to win this week and they are being asked to cover a two goal Asian Handicap for a full payout.

It should be noted that 3 of Burnley's 7 away League games have seen them lose by at least three goals, but only 1 of their last 5 and I am not willing to back Tottenham Hotspur to cover the number.

Instead I think the focus has to be the troubles Burnley have had in front of goal and look for Tottenham Hotspur to win their third straight game at White Hart Lane with a clean sheet behind them.

Both Swansea City and Hull City are struggling and have not scored in losses here, but they did have some chances. Tottenham Hotspur are going to have to ride out a couple of rough moments and Burnley did create a couple of really good chances against West Ham United, but Hugo Lloris has played really well and I think the return of Toby Alderweireld makes Tottenham Hotspur a little more solid.

I can't imagine Tom Heaton replicating his performance at Old Trafford and keeping Tottenham Hotspur from scoring and backing the home team to continue Burnley's struggles in front of goal looks the call.


Everton v Liverpool Pick: The Merseyside Derby rounds out the weekend in the Premier League and is the last live League game until Boxing Day. It looks like a fixture that can produce fireworks in what is going to be a raucous atmosphere between Everton and Liverpool.

There should be plenty of goalmouth action in the game as both teams have shown they are better going forward than they are defensively and that should produce a really good game of football. I have little doubt that both teams are going to find a way to score in this one despite Liverpool missing a couple of key performers, although the one concern in backing at least three goals is the 1-1 scoreline which has occurred in 3 of the last 5 Everton home games.

Draws have been the play in the last 4 Merseyside Derby games at Goodison Park too so the 1-1 is a real player, but this Liverpool team will keep things fairly open as they look to attack whenever they get a chance. It doesn't surprise me that 8 of their 11 away games in all competitions have resulted in at least three goals being shared out with the style of play Jurgen Klopp demands and 3 of the last 4 games between these teams at Goodison Park have seen both teams score.

2 of the 4 draws have featured at least three goals shared out and I am expecting chances at both ends throughout the ninety minutes of this game. The layers have not quite gone as short as I thought they might and I will look for another of the live television games of this weekend to produce the entertainment the television companies hope for.


Norwich City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The Championship fixture list opens with another Friday Night Football affair and this looks a decent game between Norwich City and Huddersfield Town. Both have shown some improvement over the last couple of weeks after hitting a slump in their form and the winner will have some confidence to take into the week after Christmas Day when another three League games have to be negotiated.

It is Norwich City who come into the game as the favourites and I have to say I do think the layers have got that right. This is a team that has performed very well at home and have recorded back to back wins at Carrow Road which should see the fans behind them in this one.

There has been improvement from Huddersfield Town too, but they have been inconsistent away from home all season and that may show up here. They have conceded too many goals on their travels although David Wagner's team has to be respected with some solid away results behind them this season.

However I think Norwich City will have that edge being at home where they have gotten the better of Huddersfield Town a number of times in recent years. The feeling is The Canaries will create enough chances to score at least twice in this one and that should be enough to earn them the three points against a Huddersfield Town side whose 5 away League defeats have come in their last 8 away games.

At odds against I will back Norwich City to earn another important three points to move back into the top six for at least one evening.


Bristol City v Preston North End Pick: There is no doubting that Bristol City and Preston North End come into this fixture trending in opposite directions in recent weeks, although Simon Grayson would like a few more wins on the board for Preston North End. Lee Johnson should be given the time to turn things around for Bristol City, but the pressure will only increase on him if they continue to slip down the League table.

Ashton Gate had been a comfort for Bristol City this season, but they've begun to stumble here in recent weeks and I am not sure they should be as short a favourite to win this game as the layers have them. It is true that Bristol City have earned the majority of their points at home, and they have won 6 of 10 League games here, but  3 of their last 4 in all competitions have ended in losses.

Add to that the fact that Preston North End have been very difficult to beat in recent games on their travels and you have a reason to back the away side to avoid defeat at a very decent looking price. This is a team that can score goals on their travels, and Simon Grayson has them working hard and fighting until the final whistle (and I don't mean with themselves in this case).

This is a club that has a very strong record against Bristol City in recent seasons as they have been in the same Division for four consecutive seasons. The previous three has seen Preston North End unbeaten in each League game and they have also won on their last couple of visits to Ashton Gate.

Backing Preston North End to avoid defeat against an out of form opponent looks to be an appealing price and I will take them with the Asian Handicap start.


Burton Albion v Newcastle United Pick: If ever Burton Albion wanted to know the level of competition they would be facing in the Championship, facing Newcastle United with an expensive squad they have will highlight that. The fans will love this visit of a top club in English football, but on the pitch it is going to be a real challenge for Burton Albion.

They have been playing well at The Pirelli Stadium in recent weeks with plenty of wins on the board, but Burton Albion will have had some confidence knocked in the 0-1 defeat to Huddersfield Town here during the week. It is clear that Burton Albion would not have played too many clubs of the level of Newcastle United at home and it is going to be very difficult for them to contain the visitors.

I have very little doubt that Newcastle United have the quality to score here, while the weather conditions in this part of England should mean the pitch is in good condition for the team relegated from the Premier League last season. The layers are taking no chances with the Newcastle United price which doesn't surprise me as I do expect them to win, but I think having a small interest on the 'Win to Nil' market may pay off here.

Burton Albion have actually failed to score in 2 of their last 3 home games, while Newcastle United have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 7 away games in all competitions. The layers are still offering a decent price for Newcastle United to win with a clean sheet and I will back that as they look to make it three wins and three clean sheets from the last eight days.


Leeds United v Brentford Pick: This is not going to be an easy game for Leeds United but they have been playing very well at Elland Road and I think that will give them the edge in this fixture when they host Brentford.

It has proven to be a difficult game for Leeds United having won none of their previous 6 League games against Brentford and facing a team that has had a couple of morale boosting wins over the last seven days. However Leeds United can match the confidence having won 3 of their last 4 here and bouncing back from a loss at Brighton to beat high-flying Reading 2-0 on Tuesday night.

Brentford will head to the North West to defend in numbers and frustrate the home team, and they have had 3 clean sheets in their last 5 away games. The Bees have also won at Brighton in the League this season so I am anticipating a close game with very little between them.

Home advantage can see Leeds United just get on the front foot for long enough to earn the three points in this one. At odds against the price looks decent too and I do think Leeds United have been playing well enough at home through the season to do just enough to break down a Brentford team that can be troublesome when they are producing their best.

I just feel Leeds United score goals at home and getting up to two goals should mean they have enough for the three points in a tough afternoon encounter.


Birmingham City v Brighton Pick: My first reaction to Gary Rowett's sacking at Birmingham City was complete surprise as one of the more promising manager's in the lower Leagues had been overachieving for the second season in a row at St Andrew's. It isn't just the fans and the media who have been surprised, but the players have also shown their dismay and I do think it is an awkward way to go into the final game before Christmas Day.

To make matters more difficult, they are facing a Brighton team who have been winning plenty of away games in recent weeks. Brighton have been very good defensively which will make life tough for Birmingham City and they have found some consistency in the final third to suggest they will have chances in this one.

The home form of Birmingham City has to be respected, but the Rowett sacking might just have a few players wondering what the future holds and that uncertainty can filter onto the pitch. I also think the fans could potentially voice their discontent about the decision to sack a popular manager and again that will put some pressure on the home players.

Playing a team that is very capable of exposing those cracks has me leaning towards Brighton to win this fixture. They have managed to do that in 2 of their last 3 visits including last season and I think Brighton can be backed at odds against to take advantage of any unrest and uncertainty in this live game and win another away game to maintain a strong position in the top two of the Championship.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Bournemouth + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Preston North End + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United Win to Nil @ 2.62 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Leeds United @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

December Update: 23-22, + 0.19 Units (86 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 142-145-8, + 10.70 Units (555 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Week 14 Recap 2015 (December 16th)

With the Play Offs just three weeks from being put together, the remainder of 2015 is going to bring up some really important games as teams and Head Coaches try and make sure their team is involved in the post-season.

Failing to do that automatically leaves Coaches on the hot seat and there are likely a number of vacancies that will need to be filled in the early part of 2016.

Some don't have to worry about that as the likes of the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals have all made sure they are amongst the last twelve teams standing in January. This week we will likely see a couple more teams added to the mix, while others are drinking in the last chance saloon as they try and give themselves a shot to make the post-season.

Andy Dalton's Injury May Cost the Cincinnati Bengals

You have to always use words like 'may' and 'might' in circumstances like this, but it would take a brave individual to suggest the Cincinnati Bengals are still a Super Bowl contender with Andy Dalton likely sidelined the rest of the way.

I won't criticise a Quarter Back that is willing to make a tackle when throwing an Interception, but Andy Dalton and the entire Cincinnati Bengals staff, owners and fans must have hoped he had decided against doing that in Week 14.

It was a decision that saw him fracture his thumb, but likely fracture Cincinnati's post-season ambitions. Dalton might not have won a Play Off game yet, but the Bengals were on course for a First Round bye in the Play Offs and he is arguably playing the best of his career so every chance he would have snapped his negative record in the post-season.

Now the keys are turned over to AJ McCarron who has led the Alabama Crimson Tide to a couple of National Championships. There is no shortage of confidence in the McCarron camp who effectively compared himself to Tom Brady after the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his actual performance was a little up and down and that inconsistency is not going to cut it in the Play Offs.

It's just hard to say this injury to Dalton isn't anything but a huge blow to Cincinnati and likely to extend their wait for a Play Off spot. I wasn't a huge fan of McCarron at Alabama either so I remain extremely unconvinced he has what it takes to be an effective NFL starting Quarter Back and the last three games of the regular season are huge for him to prove anything different and try to lead the Bengals into a First Round bye.

Jacksonville Jaguars Have an Offense Capable of Big Things, Now they Need the Defensive Pieces

For the last couple of years the Jacksonville Jaguars have looked an improving team, but the last couple of weeks have shown that the Offense is perhaps ready to take off.

Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas and TY Yeldon are young and effective and Jacksonville showed it all off by hanging 50 on Indianapolis this past week.

This is where the pressure begins to build on Gus Bradley as Head Coach, especially next season.

Bradley came over from Seattle where he had the Defensive Co-Ordinator role until 2012 but the Jacksonville Defensive unit is still a work in progress. They have to get better there if this team is to begin to challenge for the AFC South crown and perhaps get back into the Play Offs and the pressure will be on Bradley to get the answers so they can match what the Offense will give to them.

If the Jaguars fail because the Secondary keeps giving up too many big plays, I do think Bradley will be on the hot seat next season, but for now there is a lot of positives at Jacksonville for the fans to look forward to.

And they are also not quite out of the AFC South race this season too!!

Chuck Pagano and the Indianapolis Colts Will Part Way No Matter How the Season Ends

It was a bizarre Press Conference that Chuck Pagano held on Monday and his quotes makes it clear that he knows his time as Indianapolis Colts Head Coach is coming to an end.

This has been rumoured for much of the season thanks to a discord between him and the General Manager and looks to be the outcome even if the Colts were to win the Super Bowl.

It is quite sad that the relationship looks set to end that way as Pagano has done a good job with this Colts team that had been left in a poor spot when he took over. Yes he had Andrew Luck, but the Colts have looked improved the last couple of years and this year looked to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Unfortunately they haven't looked that good all season and even winning the poor AFC South isn't enough to paper over those cracks. Many had the Colts as a potential top two Seed in the AFC, but Luck didn't look right even before his injuries and the Defensive unit has been poor for the most part.

Next week is a huge game to see if the Colts will even be playing in the Play Offs as their grip on the AFC South looks tenuous to say the least, although I am not going to be watching a Charlie Whitehurst vs TJ Yates Quarter Back match up any time soon.

Khalil Mack is Going to be a Disruptive Force in the NFL for Years to Come

For the first time in his career, Peyton Manning must have been pleased he was unable to go for a Football game.

If Manning is banged up now, I have no idea what Khalil Mack would have done to him this past week.

Instead it was Brock Osweiler who took five Sacks from Mack alone as the second year player absolutely destroyed the Denver Offensive Line no matter which side of the Offensive Line he lined up.

Mack looked unbelievable and you can understand why so many Linemen described him as their biggest challenge after his ROOKIE season at the end of last season. He looks like a player that wants to make the best of all he has and Mack could be someone that is a future multiple time Defensive Player of the Year.

It was thanks to him that Oakland managed to come back and beat Denver in Week 14 on the road and his is going to be an integral pieced of this Defense for years to come.

With Derek Carr and Amari Cooper on the Offensive side and Mack on the Defensive side, Oakland have a bright future even if that might not be as the 'Oakland' Raiders.

Biggest Wild Card Threat- Seattle Seahawks or Pittsburgh Steelers?

Back in October when the NFL had a couple of their 'fan days' arranged in the UK, I began to mention the Pittsburgh Steelers as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and arguably the best team in the AFC.

As long as Big Ben could stay healthy.

Of course Ben Roethlisberger is battling through his injuries but the Steelers did lose Le'Veon Bell in that time, although the team is continuing to roll and now looks a real dark horse.

The problem for Pittsburgh is they need to win out and hope the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs or the New York Jets slip up. I definitely see the Jets failing to win all three games, but the point is that Pittsburgh have work to do if they are to get into the Play Offs.

If they do, the Steelers would be my answer to the question I have posed, but right now I have to go with the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are almost guaranteed of reaching the Play Offs via a Wild Card spot and not many teams are playing better than them right now. Russell Wilson looks very comfortable, the Defensive unit have upped their game and Seattle have the experience of back to back Super Bowl appearances which you just can't buy.

I have little doubt they finish Number 5 Seed in the NFC which means a road game against the NFC East winner and who would back against the Seahawks there? Things then become more haphazard with teams like Carolina and Arizona in the top two positions (remember both have won AT Seattle this season), but that is when the experience Seattle have can make a big difference.

Seattle tend to get hot in December since Wilson took over as Quarter Back and they are a real threat to get to a third consecutive Super Bowl on their current form. However, my only concern would be that they have picked up momentum a little too early and Seattle escaped a couple of fortunate bounces to win through the Play Offs the last couple of years.

Of course you need that luck, so Seattle are the answer to the question I posed right now... But if Pittsburgh make the Play Offs, I don't think anyone stops them from reaching the Super Bowl and perhaps winning a second one for Mike Tomlin and third for Ben Roethlisberger.

Top Ten

1) Carolina Panther (13-0): Home field is almost secured and this looks to be the best team in the NFL, but plenty of big challenges await.

2) Arizona Cardinals (11-2): I love what Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals have done this season, but I have a couple of concerns about their Defensive pass rush that might be exposed later in the season.

3) New England Patriots (11-2): They will likely win the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and perhaps are getting a little healthier Offensively, although Defensively they are picking up more health issues.

4) Denver Broncos (10-3): The Defensive unit is capable of leading the Denver Broncos all the way to the Super Bowl, but Quarter Back and Receivers have to get on the same page.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5): I honestly think if this team gets into the Play Offs, they are going to be very difficult to stop getting all the way to Super Bowl 50.

6) Seattle Seahawks (8-5): Very few teams have more experience than this Seattle team at going all the way to the Super Bowl and an extremely hot and dangerous Wild Card.

7) Green Bay Packers (9-4): If Eddie Lacy and James Starks can spark the running game, this team is going to be very strong in the Play Offs.

8) Kansas City Chiefs (8-5): Aside from the Carolina Panthers, no team is on a better winning run than the Kansas City Chiefs. Earning the Number 5 Seed might be good enough for a run to the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but I can't see them going much further.

9) Cincinnati Bengals (10-3): Andy Dalton's injury leads to a significant drop for the Bengals. How AJ McCarron performs in the last three weeks of the regular season will show us how far Cincinnati can go in the Play Offs.

10) New York Jets (8-5): The Jets might be getting hot at the right time, but they have a tough road to negotiate if they are to make the post-season and then try and make some noise.

Bottom Five

32) Tennessee Titans (3-10): I do wonder if Tennessee have given up on the season with an interim Head Coach and being blown out by the New York Jets.

31) San Diego Chargers (3-10): Philip Rivers is the most under-rated Quarter Back in the NFL in my opinion, but San Diego are so banged up on both sides of the ball that he can't carry this team beyond this point.

30) San Francisco 49ers (4-9): An awful performance on the road at the Cleveland Browns might only be saved if the 49ers earn a very high Draft Pick.

29) Cleveland Browns (3-10): Only thing left this season is to see if Johnny Manziel is not the dope he portrays himself to be and CAN be a franchise Quarter Back for the desperate Cleveland Browns.

28) Baltimore Ravens (4-9): You can't lose players like Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith and Terrell Suggs and expect to replace them with a 'next man up' frame of mind.

Week 14 Picks Recap

After going 8-3 in Week 13, I was just hoping to put together a very solid Week 14 to get the season totals back up after that horrendous 2-10 Week 12.

I got even more than I could have asked for with the picks going 8-2 in Week 14 to put together a very strong 16-5 two weeks that have covered the terrible Week 12.

That means the season totals are now in a very strong position again, but there are three more regular season weeks left and pushing on and improving on the last two weeks is the plan. I'll keep doing what has been successful the last two weeks and keep looking for the bounces to land my way as they have and we all need a little bit of luck for the picks to go the way we anticipate.