NFL Week 15 Picks 2023 (December 14-18)

With four weeks left of the regular season, it is no surprise that tensions are ramping up as teams jockey for places in the post-season.

There is also some focus missing as teams and players begin to think of what is to come in January and, hopefully, February, but that can be dangerous as the Miami Dolphins found out on Monday Night Football.

Despite leading by 14 points with time ticking down in the Fourth Quarter, the team found a way to lose to the Tennessee Titans and all of a sudden the Number 1 Seed looks a long way away. So far away in fact that the Dolphins are perhaps actually looking behind them at the Buffalo Bills who are just two games behind in the Division race with four games to play, including a Week 18 game between the AFC East rivals.

The way the results were churned out in Week 14 has made the Wild Card Race rev up in both Conferences, while we also have the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and, most surprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs dragged back into Divisional chases too having all lost.

Week 15 will begin to clear a few more situations up and there are some big, big games on deck.

Most notable looks to be the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Buffalo Bills, but the two primetime games to close the schedule also have plenty riding on them.

It's that time of the season where every win matters that much more and every loss makes it feel like the PlayOffs are being pushed past the horizon.

I have been placing a top five Ranking in recent weeks and after Week 14, the following five teams make the list:

1) San Francisco 49ers (10-3): another loss for the Eagles has given the 49ers the inside track to the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and they have the schedule to secure that ahead of whichever teams wins the NFC East. That will make them favourites to reach another Super Bowl under Head Coach Kyle Shanahan.

2) Baltimore Ravens (10-3): after Miami were beaten on Monday Night Football, the Ravens are the only team in the AFC to have secured ten regular season wins going into Week 15. They rallied late to overcome the Los Angeles Rams, but the Ravens have a chance to prove how good they are with four tough games remaining.

3) Dallas Cowboys (10-3): earlier in the season the Cowboys could not be placed in the top five as they had not beaten a good team, but they have done that in the last two weeks. Most impressive was the dismantling of the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but winning the NFC East will not be easy considering games the two leaders have left.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (10-3): it has been a tough run of games for the Eagles, but the schedule softens now. Losses to the 49ers and Cowboys could have a mental impact in the post-season, but Philadelphia are still the favourites to win the NFC East, which would mean hosting two PlayOff games.

5) Detroit Lions (9-4): they would have dropped out of my top five if any of Miami, Kansas City or Jacksonville had won, but the Lions just about cling on. The defeat to the Chicago Bears will be a concern for fans hoping to see a deep PlayOff run, but the Lions are set for a top three Seed in the NFC, even if they are wearing down towards the end of the season.

A bad loss to the Tennessee Titans keeps the Miami Dolphins out of the top five and there will be a real concern about some of the injuries that were picked up in that game. They need to get back on the horse very quickly and try and wrap up the AFC East Division at the very least, but the Dolphins are still a team that needs to 'prove' they are for real.

The Defensive unit let them down late on in the Monday Night Football loss and the Offense looked out of sync without Tyreek Hill for large stretches of the game and so there is work for Mike McDaniels.

Both Kansas City and Jacksonville also suffered disappointing losses- the former shot themselves in the foot again, while the latter look worn down and neither can be sure of winning their respective Divisions right now.

Out of the two, the Chiefs have more potential but we are still waiting for them to get things right and Patrick Mahomes is potentially set to face a PlayOff road game for the first time.

In the case of the Jaguars, the Defensive unit does not look good enough to produce a deep PlayOff run barring a huge performance from a banged up Trevor Lawrence and the Offensive unit.

These seven or eight teams still look the main contenders to win the Super Bowl, but we still feel there are plenty of twists and turns to come between now and mid-February and a lot of good Football too.

Thursday Night Football might look an important game on paper, but it really is lacking quality again this week and the oddsmakers have placed the line in a position that makes it tough to pick a side.

The winner between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders will still be in contention to fight out for a place in the post-season as a Wild Card team, but it really does not appeal from anything other than a watching angle.

Picks from Week 15 will be added to this thread after a solid Week 14, even with two poor selections from Monday Night Football.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: You can feel Christmas Day getting closer and closer when the NFL begins to shift the schedule and have games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. That is the situation in Week 15 with three games to be played on Saturday with the first having big PlayOff implications in both Conferences.

The Minnesota Vikings (7-6) and Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) share the same record, but only the former would be involved in the PlayOffs if the season was to end today.

However, the Bengals have momentum having won back to back games and the absence of Joe Burrow has not been as devastating as many thought it might be for a team that would have been targeting a Super Bowl appearance for the second time in three years.

Jake Browning is not Joe Burrow, but he has been very important at Quarter Back and has led the Bengals to a road upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars and a strong home win over the Indianapolis Colts. Both could be important wins as far as the PlayOff tie-breakers go with four weeks of the regular season remaining, but Cincinnati also know a single loss could change the entire positive outlook.

There are six teams in the AFC with 7-6 records through fourteen weeks of the regular season,  but the Minnesota Vikings are one of just five teams with a winning record overall in the weaker looking NFC. However, the Vikings will know how quickly things can change for them with a defeat and so a decision has been made to replace Joshua Dobbs with Nick Mullens at Quarter Back.

It is not a surprising decision after an anaemic Offensive performance against the Las Vegas Raiders and it was only until Mullens was able to come in and set up a Field Goal drive that any points were scored on the day. The 3-0 win sounds more like a European Football score than a NFL one, but that should not disguise the fact that the Minnesota Vikings could offer more in this one against this Cincinnati Defensive unit.

Nick Mullens is experienced enough, although the Vikings will be without Alexander Mattison at Quarter Back. That leaves Ty Chandler as the main Running Back, but he should be able to at least offer the Vikings something on the ground, even if the Bengals have been pretty good at clamping down on the run in recent games.

All the Vikings will want to do is keep Nick Mullens in third and manageable spots and that should give the Quarter Back some time to make his plays in the passing game. There are holes in the Bengals Secondary, while the Vikings have had some positive news this week and that is Justin Jefferson looking like he will be able to suit up for the road team.

It should mean they are able to move the ball with a bit more consistency than what we saw last week and the Minnesota Vikings can have more Offensive success than produced against the Chicago Bears and Raiders in the last couple of games.

The really important part of the day for Nick Mullens and the Offensive unit is to avoid the turnovers that could cost Minnesota. Instead they have to be confident enough to want to lean on the Vikings Defensive unit that has been playing at a high level for much of the season and who are coming into this having shut out the Raiders to help their team win the game.

They will respect Jake Browning and what he has been able to do as a backup Quarter Back, but the Vikings can make things tougher for the inexperienced Bengals starter. For example, Minnesota's Defensive Line have been stout against the run all season so the Bengals cannot expect Joe Mixon or Chase Brown to have the kind of outings produced in the last couple of wins.

Both could be dangerous as pass catching Running Backs, but the key for Minnesota is to make sure Jake Browning has to beat them with his arm.

Placing Cincinnati in third and long spots will allow the Vikings to let their pass rushers get after Browning, while the Secondary have held up pretty well even as the Offensive unit have struggled. Jake Browning has played well and has a quality Receiving corps that have stepped up for him, but the Jaguars and Colts Secondaries have not played as well as the Minnesota one and so more drives are expected to stall.

Getting the hook with the points through the key number 3 would be ideal, but even with the Field Goal start, the Minnesota Vikings should be able to keep this one close. It was felt that the Colts could do so last week, but it is a surprise to see the Vikings actually receiving more points in this one with the oddsmakers perhaps expecting the public to be unable to ignore the Offensive performance from last week.

Defensively the Vikings can keep this one competitive and Nick Mullens may be able to exploit the Cincinnati Secondary better than Joshua Dobbs would have done. With Justin Jefferson available, the Vikings can do enough on both sides of the ball t make the points count.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Being able to oppose the public is the bonus of the first selection from Saturday and a similar position will be taken with the middle of the three games to be played.

This one involves the suddenly slumping Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) visiting the Indianapolis Colts (7-6) as a small underdog and the public are simply not going to ignore such a small spread. After losing to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots, most probably cannot understand why the Colts are such a small favourite to knock off the Steelers at home in this pivotal AFC clash.

Right now the teams sit as the Number 6 and Number 7 Seed in the AFC, but the losing team in Week 15 might find it is a long road back.

Prior to the loss to the Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh looked to be motoring towards the PlayOffs, but those back to back home losses to two of the poorer teams in the NFL are hard to ignore. However, Pittsburgh have had a bit more time to prepare for this one having last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 14, while the Colts had a four game winning run ended last time out.

TJ Watt is expected to be available for the Steelers and that is very important for them with the Defensive unit expected to be the key to any post-season appearance. They have been strong at the line of scrimmage, which is a feature of Pittsburgh Football, and Indianapolis will continue to miss Jonathan Taylor who is the best player on this side of the ball.

Zack Moss has stepped up, but the Offensive Line have not been at their best in recent games and the Steelers will certainly feel they are stout enough to make Gardner Minshew beat them.

The backup Quarter Back has not played badly, but is never that far away from a really poor mistake and that is tough to overcome for the Indianapolis Colts. He has done enough to help them put a four game winning run together that has brought the Colts back into contention in the Wild Card and Divisional race, but this is a tough Defensive unit to face and tougher still without much run support.

Gardner Minshew will likely face the TJ Watt pressure and the Steelers can rush his throws, which only helps the Pittsburgh Secondary.

Interceptions could play a part on this side of the ball, but, even without them, the Steelers Secondary will still believe they can stall drives and force Field Goals and Punts rather than Touchdowns.

This will shift the pressure onto the still struggling Offensive unit, which has not backed up the first performance after firing Matt Canada as Co-Ordinator. Losing Kenny Pickett at Quarter Back should not have seen a massive drop off, even if Mitchell Trubisky has proven to be a less than effective starting Quarter Back.

Grover Stewart was back last week for the Colts, but the Defensive Line are still giving up some big plays on the ground and that is important for the Steelers and their backup Quarter Back. Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren could have strong days on the ground and both will be key for Trubisky in the passing game to make sure the Steelers are not behind the chains.

Doing so should mean Mitchell Trubisky is well protected when he does step back to make throws down the field- he has a couple of solid Receiving options, even if the Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to really showcase them with their inconsistent Quarter Back play.

Avoiding turnovers will be key for the road underdog as they look for a big win to get back on track in the Conference and they can then look to their own Defense to make some big plays to give the Steelers a chance to win this one outright.

Mike Tomlin has heard some criticism, including from former Quarter Back Ben Roethlisberger, but has thrived when leading his team as the underdog. We may see more of that in Week 15 and taking the points on offer is the play with Pittsburgh expected to just edge out Indianapolis thanks to a big turnover or two from the Defensive unit.

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions Pick: Winning six of their last seven games after a miserable start to the season would not be quite good enough to take the Denver Broncos (7-6) into the PlayOffs if the season was to end today. Sean Payton will be glad to know there are still four games to play for the Broncos, who suddenly find themselves just a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, and who will believe three more wins should be enough to earn a post-season spot in the Wild Card places at the very least.

They will head into this inter-Conference game behind the big win over Divisional rivals the Los Angeles Chargers, and with a couple of good looking games to come. Winning here would be huge, but doing so will be far from easy for the Denver Broncos who enter the game as a significant underdog.

There has to be a reaction from the Detroit Lions (9-4) who have dropped two of their last three games, including a disappointing defeat to the Chicago Bears. That is the second loss to a Divisional rival, although the Lions remain firmly in control of the NFC North and will still have ambitions of a top two finish in the Conference Seeding.

Being back at home is a big help for the Lions and they will know the importance of trying to secure at least two home PlayOff games in their bid to reach the Super Bowl. Recent signs makes the Lions an outsider to do that, while they cannot afford to let the Minnesota Vikings back into the Divisional race with another loss this week and with two games to come against the Vikings.

Detroit will use a one-two punch at Running Back to try and ease the pressure on their Quarter Back with Jared Goff not playing the mistake-free Football of earlier this season. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are capable of breaking a big run or two on the ground and the Lions Offensive Line have still be cracking open some big lanes in their bid to establish the run.

After early struggles, the Denver Defensive Line have been better at stopping the run in recent games, but it will be tough on this fast, indoor track.

Moving the team into third and manageable spots will be the key for the Lions and it will also mean Jared Goff can just allow his Receivers to get into their routes when stepping back to throw. Easing the pass rush the Broncos have found in recent games is going to be very important, but establishing the run should do that and Goff can make some plays against an improving Denver Secondary.

While there will still be some difficult moments for the Lions Offensively, Head Coach Dan Campbell has to believe the Defensive unit can at least make it equally tough for Russell Wilson and the Broncos on the other side of the ball.

For starters, the Lions Defensive Line have been very good at clamping down on the run and so the Denver game plan may depend very much on Russell Wilson's arm with the veteran Quarter Back not as keen to run the ball as he once was. He is not as effective without that dual-threat, as seen in the last couple of years, while Wilson has been inconsistent throwing the ball as well as having some inconsistent performances from the Receivers.

As the season has progressed, the Lions Secondary have been banged up and Russell Wilson may have some success with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy capable of making big plays. However, Wilson has been guilty of some poor decisions in the passing game and Interceptions are tough to overcome in December and January, which has to be a concern if the Broncos are relying on third and long spots to be converted.

Russell Wilson should have some time to make his plays, but the Lions can step up at home and they look in a good position to bounce back from a disappointing Week 14 loss.

The Lions are 7-4 against the spread after a loss since the beginning of last season and they are a perfect 3-0 against the spread in that spot in 2023. Playing at home has been very productive for Detroit, while the Denver Broncos are playing a third road game in succession and have to be looking forward to returning home where they host the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers in the next two weeks.

While they are likely to be competitive for a while with a much more confident team, Detroit will eventually be able to wear down this Broncos team and the NFC North leaders can win and cover.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Losing to the struggling New York Jets will have been a blown to their PlayOff aspirations, but a bigger issue out of that defeat is the injury suffered by CJ Stroud. He is yet to clear concussion protocol and looks almost certain to miss out for the Houston Texans (7-6) as they prepare to hit the road to face a Divisional rival.

It is also a Divisional rival that is coming in behind a big Monday Night Football win and the Tennessee Titans (5-8) are still looking like a team that wants to play spoiler for others. Even winning out is unlikely to be good enough to sneak into the PlayOffs, but the Titans pushed the Indianapolis Colts into Overtime before the win over the Miami Dolphins and they play the Texans twice in three weeks.

Davis Mills will be the likely starting Quarter Back for the Houston Texans and he did play against the Titans twice last season. That experience will help, but Mills is a big drop off from what we have seen from the rookie CJ Stroud, while it does not help that the Receiving corps is as banged up as it has been all season.

Tank Dell is already out, but Nico Collins joined him and that makes life that much tougher for Davis Mills to be productive and get the Texans back on track.

There is expected to be little support from the Offensive Line and Running Backs trying to impose themselves on a Titans Defensive Line that continues to clamp down on the run. All that does is shift more pressure on Davis Mills to make plays with backup Receivers, while playing behind a banged up Offensive Line that has allowed far too many Sacks with a more gifted athlete at Quarter Back.

One of those Sacks led to the concussion withdrawal of CJ Stroud last week and Davis Mills is expected to be harassed for much of the afternoon.

The Titans are not exactly a powerhouse Offensive unit that can be expected to keep the chains moving with consistency, but Will Levis and company have shown a bit more in the last couple of games. Much like the Texans, the feeling is that Tennessee are going to have to rely on the arm of Levis rather than the legs of Derrick Henry with the Texans playing the run effectively in recent outings.

However, unlike Tennessee, the Houston Secondary has been guilty of allowing some big plays and that was evident in the loss to the New York Jets with Zach Wilson back behind Center. Will Levis may not be under the same kind of duress as Davis Mills after Will Anderson Jr was ruled out for this game and that extra time may allow him to find DeAndre Hopkins down the field and ultimately put the Titans in a position to win and push the Texans back down to 0.500 for the season.

You do have to worry about the intensity that the Titans would have needed to beat the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football and whether that has sapped a bit of energy from them. Playing a rival from the AFC South will help motivate them, and the Titans have posted a winning record against the spread even when playing with rest disadvantage over the last couple of years.

The Titans have yet to cover in three Divisional games this season, but this looks a good opportunity for them. They can harass Davis Mills into a turnover or two and Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins look to be on the same page again, which should lead to enough big plays for Tennessee to upset a Divisional rival and move a little closer to 0.500 for the season themselves, keeping the faintest of PlayOff hopes alive through another week.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: You have to be a little wary that this spread has not moved despite the Atlanta Falcons (6-7) being a very well backed public road favourite.

The home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14 means the Atlanta Falcons have dropped their lead of the NFC South and they are one of three teams within this Division with the same record. The loss suffered by the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday means the Wild Card race is very much one that the Falcons are interested in, but they do end the season with three road games in four to finish off.

They simply cannot afford to lose to the outlier in the NFC South and that is the Carolina Panthers (1-12) who are on course to hand over the Number 1 Draft Pick to the Chicago Bears. In a difficult season, the Panthers are the only NFC team playing in Week 15 that is officially eliminated from the post-season, and they have now lost six in a row since the only win of the season.

Frank Reich has been fired as Head Coach, but there are a lot of issues to be resolved Offensively and that starts and ends with what to do with Bryce Young. Overlooking CJ Stroud to make Young the Number 1 Pick in the Draft looks a poor decision right now, although Bryce Young may feel that he is not given the same kind of support as Stroud.

That may be a little bit of a whinge though, even if Bryce Young is going to be expecting better support in the years ahead if he is going to be the Carolina franchise Quarter Back as the Panthers hope.

In this game, Bryce Young is going to have to showcase that he can make plays in the passing game with the Atlanta Defensive Line proving to be pretty stout up front.

They will be looking to game plan the run away from the Panthers and see if Bryce Young can make quicker decisions behind his shaky Offensive Line. The Falcons may not have the fiercest of pass rushes, but they should be able to get to Bryce Young and rush his throws, which has been a problem for the rookie all season and potentially going to lead to mistakes.

Running the ball will also be a challenge for the Atlanta Falcons against an improved Carolina Defensive Line, although they should not forget to give Bijan Robinson the carries his talent deserves. The Running Back will play hard and hit the holes, while he is also more than a capable pass-catching option coming out of the backfield and Atlanta will go as far as Robinson can.

The Falcons can also have a bit more faith in their Quarter Back to make the plays needed with Desmond Ridder back behind Center having lost his job midway through the regular season. The key for Atlanta is to not force Ridder to feel like he needs to win the game himself, especially against a Carolina Secondary that has also stepped up to keep the team competitive even through the Offensive struggles.

Interceptions have been a big problem for Desmond Ridder, but the Falcons can try and control the clock and keep the Quarter Back in third and manageable by running the ball as they can. Even if they are not ripping off big gains, Atlanta will keep feeding the Running Backs and hope they can find something big, while Ridder should know he does not have to win the game, but has to make sure he does not lose it.

In reality it is hard to trust Atlanta in this spot seeing as they do not really blow any opponent out.

However, the Panthers have really been struggling Offensively and Bryce Young may have issues in moving the ball with any consistency against this Atlanta Defense. If that is the case, Atlanta should do just enough to cover this spread and make sure they remain in contention for a PlayOff spot via a Division win or a Wild Card place.

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints Pick: After a miserable start to the season and with Daniel Jones officially out for the season, the New York Giants (5-8) looked like a team that may already have begun to think about 2024.

Tommy DeVito came in as backup to Jones, and had a pretty miserable couple of games, but he has found some festive magic in Gotham and somehow the rookie Quarter Back has led the Giants to three wins in a row. After Minnesota Vikings were beaten, the New York Giants have every chance to move to within one game of the current Number 6 Seed in the NFC and fans will be thinking about the post-season having reached the Divisional Round last season.

It still feels like a long shot for the Giants who have to face the Philadelphia Eagles twice and have this tough road game at the New Orleans Saints (6-7) before those big Divisional games.

The Saints crushed the Carolina Panthers to join the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a 6-7 record and they can join the Vikings at 7-7 in the Wild Card race. They will need to avoid looking ahead to Week 16 when the Saints have been scheduled to play on Thursday Night Football, while New Orleans have to face both of those aforementioned Divisional rivals before the end of the regular season.

Derek Carr has been inconsistent at Quarter Back as he has continued to deal with injuries that have knocked him out of games, but not kept Carr sidelined. Some New Orleans fans feel that Jameis Winston would be the better option behind Center, but the Saints are sticking with Carr.

This is not a game in which they will want Derek Carr to be slinging the ball around, but the Saints will hope he can give them a bit more than he did in the win over the Carolina Panthers. That perhaps said more about the Panthers than it did about the Saints, while they will have to respect the fact that they are facing a Giants team that have performed with some confidence.

The Secondary have certainly stepped up, although Derek Carr should have time to throw the ball, and the bigger threat is clearly going to come from Alvin Kamara and the running game. As well as the Giants have done to win three in a row, they have really had some issues stopping the run and that could show up inside the SuperDome.

However, the Giants have to believe they are playing well enough Defensively to at least keep the team competitive and that will allow New York to have a game plan that has worked well for Tommy DeVito at Quarter Back.

Effectively it is leaning on Saquon Barkley and the Offensive Line and also allowing DeVito to move out of the pocket and scramble up the field. The Giants have been picking up some big plays on the ground during their winning run and New Orleans have had something of a weakness when it comes to stopping the run and that should see New York keep this one competitive.

They can control the clock and frustrate the Saints, while also protecting Tommy DeVito from having to put this game on his shoulders.

He will play his part, but the Giants do not want DeVito to have to throw too many times and this is a game in which the Offensive game plan should be simple.

With teams being able to run the ball very well against the Saints, the Secondary have had decent numbers. However, that may have something to do with teams looking to pound the rock against them, while it is important in this one to ease any pass rush pressure that may be generated against Tommy DeVito.

Playing on a Sunday after a big performance on Monday Night Football is going to be tough, but the Giants are helped by the fact that the Saints are back out in a few days time and could be looking ahead.

New Orleans are also 1-4 against the spread as a home favourite this season, although they covered in that spot in Week 14, and it looks like the Giants are the right side in this one.

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: It feels a lot longer than a couple of seasons since the Los Angeles Rams (6-7) won the Super Bowl in their own Stadium. Head Coach Sean McVay has considered leaving the role and moving into the commentator's booth, but he has to be proud he has stuck around the Rams are in the mix for the Wild Card places as they look to return to the post-season.

Things might have looked much more rosy if the Rams had been able to hold onto their lead over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 and make it four wins in a row, but they continue to play hard.

Los Angeles could not have asked for much more out of the remaining schedule, but they also cannot overlook any opponent knowing one more loss might make it difficult for them to earn the Wild Card berth they are chasing. They do have a Thursday Night Football game coming up that could have a big impact on those Seedings, but the Rams will also know that the game coming up will feel a lot less important if they were to lose to the Washington Commanders (4-9).

The latter are coming out of a Bye Week, but have a lame duck Head Coach in Ron Rivera and even winning their remaining four games is unlikely to prevent a change in Washington.

Injury has ruled out Brian Robinson, which is a blow for the Commanders and Ron Rivera has made it clear that all he wants is his players to act professional and come in and do a hard job.

Even without Robinson, the Washington Commanders will be trying to establish the run against a Rams Defensive Line which has allowed 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games. Establishing the run will just ease the pressure on Sam Howell at Quarter Back and, perhaps more importantly, it will slow down the Rams pass rush that will have success against this Commanders Offensive Line if the road team is in obvious passing situations.

Sam Howell will find some spaces to exploit in the Rams Secondary and Washington do have some solid Receivers that can help the Quarter Back keep the chains moving. The key for Howell is to avoid the turnovers that have blighted his recent performances, but he should be able to put together a decent game in this one, especially out of the Bye Week with more time to formulate a game plan.

A bigger test for the Commanders is going to be trying to find a way to slow down Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams Offensive unit.

The home team should be able to do what they like on this side of the ball- the Commanders Defensive Line have not been able to stop the run going into the Bye Week, while they have lost some key pass rushers which makes it hard to believe that Washington are going to get the better of this Rams Offensive Line.

Being in front of the chains opens things up for Stafford and the passing game and the Rams have a couple of playmakers in the Receiving positions that should hurt this Commanders Secondary.

Matthew Stafford is avoiding the big mistakes that Sam Howell has been guilty of making and that could be key to the outcome of this game. Washington should score a fair few points too, but those extra possessions are likely to land in favour of the Los Angeles Rams, which should give them the opportunity to not only win, but to cover this spread.

Three blow out losses in a row should give Washington some motivation to avoid another, but the Los Angeles Rams are on track to make the post-season and can secure a good win before hosting Thursday Night Football in Week 16.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings + 3.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

NFL Week 15 Picks 2022 (December 15-19)

The run up to Christmas is always a ridiculously busy time for families and it does make it difficult to write out fuller threads ahead of the latest week in the NFL.

We are edging closer and closer to the post-season and we will begin to see teams being eliminated.

At this stage of the season, Seeding has to be on the mind of teams and players too and I think the decision made by the NFL to have Divisional games dominating December should make it a very interesting and fun end to the season.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: In a seventeen game regular season, you can't really point out any good time to lose three in four games, but that is what is facing the Seattle Seahawks (7-6) as they prepare for a short week in which they host the NFC West leaders. The losses have seen Seattle lose the grip of top spot in the Division and right now there has to be one or two concerns that the Seahawks are trending in a direction where they are going to miss the PlayOffs completely.

In fact, if the PlayOffs were to start today, the Seattle Seahawks would be missing out on the top seven places in the NFC and the pressure is building on them. You can forgive the loss in Munich against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but home defeats to the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers are much harder to take and now the Seahawks are under pressure to respond against an opponent that continues to pick themselves up from key injuries.

An injury to one Quarter Back is a blow, but to lose the backup too would usually mean curtains for any team with Super Bowl ambitions... Well any team other than the San Francisco 49ers (9-4).

Trey Lance started the season at Quarter Back and Jimmy Garoppolo came in and took the 49ers forward, but having the very last Pick in the Draft, 'Mr Irrelevant' next up on deck should have been a problem. Brock Purdy is really well liked in San Francisco, but even with that in mind, I don't think many would have anticipated just how good he has been in the game and a half that he has played.

The system is one that is designed to make things easier for the Quarter Back, but Brock Purdy did more than manage the wins over the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it is clear that the San Francisco Coaching staff truly believe in him. With the games left, the 49ers are hoping to improve their current Number 3 Seed in the NFC, although they are not expected to chase down the Philadelphia Eagles for the Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season.

Winning the NFC West is likely going to mean either the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed in the Conference and the 49ers can wrap up the Division as soon as Thursday Night. A win would mean a 3 game lead over the Seattle Seahawks and the sweep of the Divisional series would give the 49ers the tie-breaker too.

Brock Purdy was a little banged up last week, but admitted he could have finished the game against the Buccaneers if it had not been firmly in hand. He should be good to go, although the loss of Deebo Samuel is a blow considering how many targets the Wide Receiver had been given since Purdy moved into the line up.

I don't think it is an insurmountable injury as the 49ers have dealt with plenty this season and found a way to get the 'next man up'. They will also benefit in this game from the running schemes that are drawn up by Kyle Shanahan and I do think Christian McCaffrey will have a very big game at Running Back.

The 49ers Offensive Line will open up big holes for McCaffrey when he is given the ball, while the Running Back is also expected to be a big threat in the passing game. For much of the season the Seattle Defensive Line have struggled to contain the run and that was in evidence in the home loss to the Panthers in Week 14 who had D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard piling up the yards on the ground.

Being in front of the chains should make things easier for Brock Purdy, who has shown he has some capable wheels of his own if necessary, and I do think the 49ers will be able to move the ball with some consistency. They have not always been at their best Offensively this season, but I do think they match up well with the Seattle Defensive unit and ultimately that will show up in this one.

It also means the pressure shifts onto Geno Smith and the Seattle Offense, which has just made one too many mistakes in recent weeks to fall on the wrong side of a number of games. All credit has to be given to Smith and the work ethic which has seen him become a serviceable starter in the NFL after replacing Russell Wilson, but some may believe that the errors being made of late are signs that the magic is wearing off and the Geno Smith most have seen in the NFL before is returning.

The Quarter Back could benefit from having Kenneth Walker III back on Thursday Night Football, but the Seahawks have not been running the ball as efficiently as they would have liked. They are unlikely to find a lot of room to get things going on the ground against the 49ers and it becomes even tougher for the Seahawks if they are down a couple of scores and have to move away from the run and focus on the pass.

Regardless of the score, I do think the 49ers Defensive Line will continue to largely clamp down on the run and that means Geno Smith will be asked to throw from awkward spots.

Third and long will favour the 49ers Secondary, even though there have been some holes to exploit in recent games. I expect Geno Smith to find Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in spaces at times, but the accuracy has weakened in recent games and that has led to balls being picked off, something the San Francisco Secondary thrives on doing.

Last week it was Tom Brady being lured into making mistakes and I would not be surprised if Geno Smith does the same in this one.

Those turnovers can be fatal and the Seattle Offensive Line has been having one or two issues protecting Smith in recent games. Like I said, I would not be surprised if Geno Smith has some nice passing numbers, but the 49ers are a team that will lull him into a sense of security before taking the ball away and I do think the road team can win and cover on Thursday.

San Francisco have covered in their last six games against Divisional rivals and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten on the road. They don't have the best record in Seattle and Brock Purdy has a different challenge playing in a loud atmosphere opposing him for the first time, but the Seahawks are trending in the wrong direction having failed to cover in four straight and the blowout loss in San Francisco won't be far from the mind.

This one should be much closer, but the 49ers can do enough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to edge past this Divisional rival and confirm their place as NFC West Champions.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: These two teams have very different ambitions between now and the end of the regular season, but that does not mean the spread isn't a bit too wide in favour of the home team. The Minnesota Vikings (10-3) failed to clinch the NFC North in Week 14 in a defeat to the Detroit Lions, but they are not likely to blow the lead they have built up, although the loss is more damaging when it comes to their hopes of finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

Four games are left and the Vikings are 2 games behind the Philadelphia Eagles, while they are also losing the tie-breaker to the Eagles. Ultimately it means the team is preparing for the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs and they will be looking for a strong end to the season considering the level of opponents that are left to face.

First up is this special Saturday scheduled spot where the Minnesota Vikings will be hosting the Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) coming out of a Bye Week and on the brink of elimination from the PlayOffs. This has been a remarkably tough year for the Colts, who have not been helped by injury, and the decision to trade for Matt Ryan has proven to be a poor one, and one that cost Head Coach Frank Reich his job.

The appointment of Jeff Saturday upset may around the Coaching circles considering the former Colt had no experience of the Head Coach role at any level of the game. A win over the Las Vegas Raiders silenced some of the critics, but the Indianapolis Colts have lost three in a row since then, including a monster blowout to the Dallas Cowboys before heading into their very late Bye Week.

Jeff Saturday has stuck with Matt Ryan at Quarter Back, but that does not mean the Colts are not expecting a much better all around performance from their team. Ryan and the rest of the Offense have wasted some of the big efforts that have been given to them by the Defensive unit through the season, but this may be an opportunity for the Indianapolis Colts to have success when they have the ball in their hands.

I don't think Matt Ryan has been helped by the inconsistent season Jonathan Taylor has had at Running Back, but he did pile up 82 yards in the defeat to the Dallas Cowboys and I think Taylor can at least get something going on the ground in this one. The Colts Offensive Line has not been in the best form, but I do think they can get the better of the Minnesota Defensive Line in this battle in the trenches and that should put Taylor in a position to keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains.

We have not seen that enough this season, but Matt Ryan also deserves the criticism he has received having underperformed at Quarter Back. Fumbling issues and playing behind an Offensive Line which has not offered enough time in the pocket has hurt the veteran, who has been sat down once already this season with many more voices believing Ryan should sit out the rest of the way.

For now Matt Ryan will get the start and he is facing a Minnesota Secondary which has continued to give up a huge amount of yards through the air. The Vikings have not really been able to generate a strong pass rush and that has only exposed those in the Secondary that much more, although Harrison Smith is expected to be back this week to bolster this side of the ball. Even then, Matt Ryan has to find some spaces to expose and with Taylor keeping the team in third and manageable, I do think the Colts could have better Offensive success than we have seen for much of the season.

A banged up Offensive Line did not help Minnesota last week, but they also look to be getting a couple of key Linemen back in time for Week 15. That is vitally important for Dalvin Cook and the whole Offense having struggled to run the ball without the Offensive Line being at full health, but they should be able to move the ball much more comfortably in this one.

The Colts have been trampled during their losing run and I do think Dalvin Cook will bounce back from a couple of rough outings. That is key for the Vikings who have just been struggling for some consistency on this side of the ball and also helps Quarter Back Kirk Cousins who is going to be facing a tough Indianapolis Secondary.

If Dalvin Cook is running the ball as he could, Kirk Cousins should be able to find his Receivers with quick passes and avoid the Colts pass rush, which has been playing pretty well. Justin Jefferson is not easy to stop, but I do think the Colts Secondary will feel they can play hard enough to limit the big plays made by Minnesota and that could help them keep this close.

I certainly think they can keep this game closer than the oddsmakers believe and the public are pounding the home team, although you have to respect the fact that the Vikings are getting healthier as we approach the post-season.

The thumping loss at Dallas is a worry for how the players could be responding to Jeff Saturday as the Head Coach, but I do think the Colts can come out of the Bye Week and make this one much more competitive against a Minnesota team that have regularly given up more yards than they have earned in games this season.

It is hard to back the Colts with a lot of confidence considering how poorly they have played this season, but I do think they can keep this one close against an opponent that may be thinking ahead to big NFC battles rather than this non-Conference tilt. Take away the blowout at the Cowboys and you also cannot ignore the fact that Indianapolis have at least been in competitive losses more often than not and a backdoor cover could be earned at the very least.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: A decision is yet to be made about who will be starting at Quarter Back, but Tyler Huntley has cleared concussion protocol and should be starting for the Baltimore Ravens (9-4). Lamar Jackson is edging closer to a return, but not expected to suit up in Week 15, while Anthony Brown is an Undrafted rookie and won't have nearly enough experience to guide the Ravens, even if he has been taking first team reps in practice.

I am not sure Tyler Huntley is capable of winning too many games, but he is not going to lose games and that is all the Ravens can ask as they rely on their strong Defensive unit to guide them through games, even when Jackson is available and starting.

That Defensive unit will be looking to test Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns (5-8) who were beaten by the Cincinnati Bengals last week and probably one more loss away from being out of PlayOff contention. It is no surprise that Watson has been shaking off the rust having been out of action as long as he has, but he was better in the loss against the Bengals than the win over his former team Houston.

I don't think it would be harsh to suggest that this is going to be the toughest Defense that Deshaun Watson is going to face on his return to the NFL and it could be a very difficult day for the Quarter Back. Next season should be a much stronger one for Watson and the Browns, but in Week 15 of the 2022 season, I do think they are going to have a tough time moving the ball with any consistency in this game.

The Cleveland Browns do want to get a push behind the Offensive Line and get Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt pounding the rock, but recent games have been a bit of a struggle for them. Last week was particularly tough for Chubb and the Baltimore Defensive Line is one that has been very proud of the way they have been able to shut down runners.

Doing that completely to Nick Chubb is not something I would expect every week, but the Ravens can at least limit the damage done on the ground and in turn force Deshaun Watson to try and beat them through the air.

Pressure up front makes the Ravens that much more dangerous and Watson may need a bit of time to work out a strong Defensive unit in front of him, time that won't be afforded to him when throwing in obvious passing down and distances. Quarter Backs have had some success throwing into the Baltimore Secondary in recent games, but there is not a lot of encouragement there for Deshaun Watson who is still working his way back to full strength after missing as much time as he has over the last couple of years.

No one will be expecting a lot out of the Baltimore passing game either, but a key difference for the road team and current AFC North leaders is that they are likely going to be able to run the ball much more effectively than the Cleveland Browns. A Committee approach is taken by the Ravens and Tyler Huntley is also capable of moving the ball with his legs and I expect the Ravens to be able to establish the run for much of this game against this Browns Defensive Line.

They allowed Joe Mixon to have a decent return last week and I think Baltimore will find a way to pound the rock in this one and keep Tyler Huntley in front of the chains.

The Quarter Back should be able to employ play-action and short screen passes to get something going through the air, but the Ravens can control the clock with their ground and pound approach and I do think the underdog can be backed to cover the spread.

Baltimore have a very good record against the Cleveland Browns having produced a 5-1 record against the spread in the last six between them, while also going 6-1-1 against the spread in their last seven visits to Cleveland.

The Ravens have been strong on the road this season and they are 2-0-1 against the spread in three games when set as the underdog, including an outright win at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14. Cleveland, on the other hand, are 1-3 against the spread when favoured by less than 7 points this season and I do think the Browns could end up coming up short with Deshaun Watson still working his way back.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Back to back road losses will have stung the Miami Dolphins (8-5) and it has also meant they have lost control of the AFC East, and that makes this a very important game for the team. Losing at San Francisco is one thing, but the performance in the defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers was simply way below the kind of standards that have been set in 2022 and will have some fans worrying.

A number of losses to teams in and around the AFC Wild Card Race could be problematic for the Miami Dolphins in the weeks ahead. They also have to play three Divisional rivals in their final four games and those could be pivotal in deciding the final position for the Dolphins within the Conference.

First up is a trip to AFC East leading Buffalo Bills (10-3) who just about edged out the New York Jets in Week 14 and they have not been as convincing since early November, despite the fact that the Bills have won four in a row. Josh Allen and company will be hoping for better conditions on Saturday with this being another game scheduled into a standalone spot, although there will be a confidence in the Bills as they prepare to face a banged up Miami Defensive unit that put in a huge effort in limiting the Chargers in the Sunday Night Football defeat last week.

Injuries are piling up, but the Dolphins will be asked for another big effort in their bid to sweep the season series from the Buffalo Bills. Conditions are really not favourable to a team coming out of a warm weather environment, but the Dolphins Defensive Line have played well enough of late to believe they can have some success at slowing down the Bills rushing attack.

Of course it is hard to clamp down completely because Josh Allen is just as capable of moving the ball with his legs as he is his arm, but forcing the Bills to have to throw from third and long spots on the field will be considered a big win for Miami. Doing this will allow the Dolphins to unleash their pass rush, which is greatly improved by the addition of Bradley Chubb, and I do think the Miami Defensive Line can penetrate into the backfield and try and harass Josh Allen if the Quarter Back is looking for time to make his throws down the field.

Buffalo have a team that is more than capable of winning the Super Bowl, but you also have to factor in the recent performances. They have averaged less than 200 passing yards per game in their last three wins and Allen had a tough game against the New York Jets Defensive unit last week as Buffalo just about cracked 20 points.

That was enough for the win in Week 14 and the last two road performances of the Miami Dolphins will have to be vastly improved if 20 points isn't going to be enough to beat them too. The Dolphins were getting high praise for the performance of the Offensive unit as they moved to the top of the AFC East, but they have only scored 17 points in each of the last two games and last week it was a miserable all around Offensive performance.

Despite facing a banged up Los Angeles Chargers team, Miami could not run the ball and Tua Tagovailoa had another inaccurate game. These are the moments when the Quarter Back position once again comes under the microscope, although Tagovailoa may have been playing a little banged up over the last couple of weeks.

Tyreek Hill wasn't himself either, while Jayden Waddle has not been the kind of factor that the Dolphins would have hoped in the last couple of weeks. He is another that may not be operating at 100%, but the Dolphins will need all of their players to step up, especially in the passing game.

With Jeff Wilson likely out, Raheem Mostert will get the majority of the carries for Miami, but he is not expected to have a lot of success against the Bills Defensive Line. That only puts Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game under more pressure and a banged up Offensive Line may not give the Quarter Back as much time in the pocket to locate his Receivers down the field.

However, there are one or two issues in the Buffalo Secondary that have seen the likes of Mike White have opportunities to make plays down the field and I am expecting Tua Tagovailoa to have those in this game.

In a game where both Defensive units will feel they can make big plays at the line of scrimmage, I do think the recent struggles of both passing games will continue here. The weather may not be ideal for throwing the ball in Buffalo on Saturday evening and this makes me believe it will be a close game, which makes the points offered to the Miami Dolphins look pretty appealing.

The Dolphins have been blown out a number of times in recent years when visiting this Divisional rival, which is a concern, but I do think they bounce back after two back to back poor efforts.

Miami have not been very good on the road in recent weeks, but they have a strong record against the spread when facing Divisional rivals, including beating Buffalo at home earlier in 2022.

The underdog is also 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five games between these AFC East rivals and I do think the points being offered to the Dolphins look big enough to back the road team. With Josh Allen and the Buffalo passing game not quite operating at full tilt, Miami should be able to keep this one competitive even in a losing effort and I think the Dolphins can show they are better than the efforts of Week 13 and Week 14.

Detroit Lions @ New York Jets Pick: If you go back to August, neither the Detroit Lions (6-7) nor the New York Jets (7-6) would have been tipped up by too many to make the PlayOffs, but both have two very strong Head Coaches that have extracted the very best out of the roster. If the post-season was to begin this week, both teams would be just missing out, but there are four games left to turn that around.

Turning things around is the mindset for the Jets more than the Lions- New York have lost some momentum with four losses in six games. On the other hand, Detroit have won five of their last six games and Dan Campbell may actually feel it would be a massive disappointment if the Lions are now not able to push into the top seven in the NFC with the Seattle Seahawks faltering in front of them.

The Lions also have a decent schedule to end the season if they are able to win in this Stadium for the second time this season having already upset the New York Giants. It would not be the same kind of upset in beating the Jets, but Detroit have to show they can handle the increased sense of expectation around this team in their bid to end a long wait for a return to the post-season having last done that in 2016.

Jared Goff has to be given credit for the way he has worked in this system, but this may be the toughest Defensive unit he has faced in some time this season. Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh has gotten the New York Defensive unit playing at an incredibly good level in just his second season with the team and this is a Secondary that simply does not give up many yards.

The Lions Offensive Line will be key in trying to help the team establish the run and that has been a slight weakness on the Jets, although not to any great extent where it will be easy to move the ball with a lot of consistency on the ground. However, it will be important to keep an Offensive balance for Detroit and it will also be key for Jared Goff to be kept in third and manageable spots and that is going to be difficult for the Lions against the Jets Defensive unit.

I expect the Lions to give Goff some time in the pocket, but this is a stout Secondary that does not give up many yards and I think that will be a tough test for this Lions team.

My feeling is that things should be a touch more simpler for the New York Jets when they have the ball in their hands and especially with Mike White trending towards starting this game. He has been a huge upgrade on Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson at Quarter Back and I can imagine his team-mates are impressed with White for continuing to fight against the Buffalo Bills despite taking two huge hits that forced him to sit out a couple of plays last week.

Showing toughness can get others on your side and Mike White will have the Jets playing hard for him as they look for a vital win that can keep them in contention in a loaded AFC. Winning the East Division looks beyond them after the loss to the Bills in Week 14, but they are still in touch with the top seven places and I think White will have a strong outing to set New York up for a win.

The Quarter Back is likely to be helped by the Jets running attack, which should be able to find a bit more consistency than the Detroit Lions on the other side of the ball.

Keeping Mike White in third and manageable spots should aid him against a Lions Secondary that have given up some huge yards through the course of the season. Recent games have been more of the same for the Secondary and being in third and manageable should open up the playbook for Mike White as he looks to help the Jets earn the victory.

I have to lean with the New York Jets to win this game and the sharps seem to have shifted the line from a small home underdog into a small home favourite, largely down to the fact that Mike White is looking set to start. I would not want to be on Zach Wilson at Quarter Back to win this game, but White looks the much superior Quarter Back and I think he will put the Jets in a position to win this game.

Ignoring how well Detroit have played against the spread would be a mistake, but the New York Jets are 5-0 against the spread when playing off a straight up loss. Robert Saleh and Dan Campbell are strong Head Coaches that deserve respect and I think this will be a competitive game with a lean towards the home team covering in a winning effort.

[UPDATE]: Soon after posting this Pick, Zach Wilson was confirmed as the starter for the Jets on Sunday- this is far from ideal, d'oh!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: For most teams sitting at 5-8, the post-season would feel a long way away, but the Carolina Panthers (5-8) are fortunate in a couple of ways after winning in Seattle in Week 14. For starters they are still only a couple of games out of the Number 7 Seed in the NFC, despite being three games below 0.500, while they are also playing in the worst Division in the NFL and that means they are only a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the lead in the NFC South.

Winning the Division would mean hosting a PlayOff game and the Panthers still have to visit the Buccaneers in the regular season so will feel like they are firmly in the PlayOff mix. They can ill-afford to overlook the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) who lost a tough home battle with rivals the Baltimore Ravens last week and are almost certainly going to hand Head Coach Mike Tomlin his first losing season of his career with the Steelers.

There is still an opportunity for the Steelers to avoid that fate, but reaching the PlayOffs looks beyond them after the narrow loss to the Ravens. Kenny Pickett is likely going to be sat down the rest of the season at Quarter Back after entering concussion protocol again and that means Pittsburgh have to go with either Mitchell Trubisky or Mason Rudolph at Quarter Back.

Neither looks a good option, but the Steelers could benefit by getting a little more out of their run game this week against this Panthers Defensive Line. That is key for Pittsburgh who won't want to take massive risks by throwing against a Secondary that turned the ball over a number of times last week in the win over Geno Smith and the Seahawks, but being in front of the chains should make life that much more comfortable for either Trubisky or Randolph when it comes to finding their Receiving options.

The Pittsburgh Offensive Line have been able to offer their Quarter Back a touch more time than previous seasons, although it has helped that Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky have been happy to move out of the pocket. Mason Rudolph may not be as keen to do that and it could lead to some issues for the Steelers when it comes to moving the ball, although I do think the Offensive Line will help in pounding the rock at the Panthers in this one.

It is going to be a similar approach for the Carolina Panthers who bled the clock at the end of the win over Seattle by handing the ball off to D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard over and over again. The game plan is not expected to be much different in Week 15 and both Foreman and Hubbard could have strong games against the Steelers Defensive Line that could not stop the Baltimore Ravens last time out.

Even though the Panthers have not really had the home run Back since trading Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers, they won't change their approach and Foreman and Hubbard can wear down Defensive Lines. I think they will have success running the ball against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh may also choose to bring extra men towards the line of scrimmage if they do not respect the ability of Sam Darnold to throw the ball against them.

Sam Darnold starting games again is a surprise, but he is only being asked to manage games much as possible and the numbers in the Carolina passing game reflect that. They want to play 'old school' Football and that means relying on the run and trying to stay in front of the chains and Darnold may not be asked to do too much.

He does have DJ Moore practicing again, but this whole game has the feeling of a grind it out kind of contest and one that makes the points being given to the road underdog that much more appealing.

Having a full three points with the Steelers looks hard to ignore, especially as they have largely been competitive this season and Carolina's Offensive game plan is not one that will lead to a lot of blowout wins.

As well as the Panthers have done to remain in contention in the NFC South, you cannot avoid the fact that it is down to how poor the Division is rather than Carolina pulling up any trees. They have been a poor home team to back against the spread and Carolina have a 3-9 record against the spread in their last twelve games against a team with a losing record.

Carolina are also 0-3 against the spread when favoured this season, while a well Coached Pittsburgh team are unlikely to give away anything easily. This could end in a push, but I think the Steelers are worth backing with the points against a team that has a lot more to lose and who have struggled in a favourite spot.

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos Pick: This has been a season of huge regret for the Denver Broncos (3-10) and the Arizona Cardinals (4-9) having begun the year with real expectations of making the PlayOffs. Instead, the Broncos are eliminated ahead of Week 15 and the Cardinals are likely to soon join them following a defeat on Monday Night Football and I think there are going to be a lot of questions as to the direction of the two teams in the off-season.

Head Coaches are usually the first to pay and I would not be surprised at all if the Broncos and Cardinals are searching for new leaders once the season is completed.

Nathaniel Hackett has never looked comfortable with the Broncos and the trade for Russell Wilson could not have gone much worse with the team struggling on the Offensive side of the ball. In Week 14 they put in a huge effort to try and upset their Divisional rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, but Wilson was knocked out of the game with a scary looking concussion and it would not be the worst decision in the world for the Broncos to sit him the rest of the regular season.

Russell Wilson is pushing to play this game, but he has yet to clear concussion protocol and it would feel like a poor decision to play him considering the elimination from the post-season has already been confirmed. That would mean Brett Rypien taking over at Quarter Back, as he did last week, but regardless, this feels like another game in which Denver may struggle Offensively.

The Broncos may be able to establish the run, especially against the Arizona Defensive Line, but you do have to wonder what the motivation is for players after putting in so much into the defeat to the Chiefs. They have another go at Kansas City to come and this non-Conference game may not mean a lot to a team who are missing some key players on this side of the ball.

If Brett Rypien starts, I really do think the Broncos could have issues moving the ball, even with the run likely to be established. The Quarter Back is playing behind an Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection all season and Rypien is simply not a player that can be relied upon to make throws with the injuries at Receiver.

Denver may have some success considering Arizona are on a short week and virtually eliminated from the PlayOffs, but the Broncos have shown little consistency Offensively all season and their backup Quarter Back is hard to trust.

The Cardinals will also be playing with a backup after Kyler Murray went down with an ACL injury, but Colt McCoy is a veteran who should have a decent outing. Kliff Kingsbury is another Head Coach firmly on the hot seat in Arizona, and you do have to wonder if the players have given up on what they may feel is a lame duck Coach, but the match up is one that can be exploited by Colt McCoy.

One concern for McCoy is the Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection, but I do think he will get the ball out of his hands much quicker than Kyler Murray, who was always willing to run with the ball if Receivers haven't broken open. It will be down to McCoy to make the right reads with the Cardinals not expected to establish the run with any consistency, but the Quarter Back does have Receivers who can win their battles against this Secondary and I think the Broncos are a vulnerable favourite this week.

Of course it isn't easy to trust the Cardinals on a short week having effectively been eliminated from the PlayOffs, but I do think Colt McCoy will give them a push.

The Cardinals have tended to bounce back from losses and have a surprisingly strong 11-4 record against the spread in their last fifteen road games, while the Denver Broncos have not covered in five attempts as the favourite this season. Add in the huge effort in coming up short against the Kansas City Chiefs last week and it is easy to imagine a scenario where the Broncos find themselves struggling to match the motivational levels of Week 14 and ultimately fail to cover this spread too.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts + 4.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens + 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

New York Jets - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals + 3 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

NFL Week 15 Picks 2017 (December 14-18)

This is the time of the year when families are getting ready to celebrate Christmas with each other, but also means a time of the year when the NFL begins to separate out their games to cover a few more holiday games for national consumption.

Week 15 means there is little room for error for teams and this is also the time when you can start looking around to teams who have gotten hot and potentially have a run to the Super Bowl within them.

Unfortunately 2017 is likely to be remembered as one where injuries and suspensions hurt some of the top names in the NFL. The latest to go down is Carson Wentz who had led the Philadelphia Eagles to the best record in the NFC before suffering an ACL injury which is likely going to keep him out until deep into the pre-season in 2018.

It was also a bitter blow for the Eagles who likely have seen their Super Bowl hopes end barring Nick Foles playing the best Football of his career. That has also blown open the NFC and it could all be working out for one team.

The Green Bay Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is back this week after two critical Overtime wins for the Packers, although they have three tough games to win to have any chance to make the Play Offs. If the Packers can do that, I honestly think they could have the momentum to go all the way to the Super Bowl, although there is plenty of football to be played before everything is separated and the two Super Bowl contenders are set.


Like every week, the results can quickly change the way the Play Off picture looks. This week the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers may well decide which of those teams wins the AFC West, while the Los Angeles Rams go to the Seattle Seahawks with the potentially decisive game in the NFC West on the line.

Add in the New England Patriots trip to the Pittsburgh Steelers which could determine the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and Week 15 looks another fantastic week to enjoy.

My current Play Off twelve looks like this:

AFC- Pittsburgh, New England, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee and Baltimore.

NFC- Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, Atlanta and Green Bay.


Last week was a disappointing one for the NFL Picks after the last two picks went down, but hopefully this will be a better week all around. Onto the Week 15 Picks.


Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There was some real disappointment in the Baltimore Ravens locker room last week after blowing a big Fourth Quarter lead in the topsy turvy game at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The loss has put them in a difficult position, but the AFC is not a loaded Conference when it comes to the Wild Card places and the Ravens will feel they still have enough to make sure they finish in those spots.

They are a big favourite to bounce back and beat Divisional rivals the Cleveland Browns who look set to be the second team to finish with a 0-16 record alongside the Detroit Lions. The Browns are also trying to recover from what has to be a crushing defeat when they blew a 14 point lead in the Fourth Quarter against the Green Bay Packers in a game they should have snapped their poor losing run.

That loss looks like one that will have confirmed the end of the Hue Jackson era as the Head Coach in Cleveland and there are already some big changes being made by the franchise. While the Browns do have some good pieces to build upon, in today's NFL there is only so far you can go without having full faith in the Quarter Back you trot out onto the field.

DeShone Kizer has shown some promise since his big time Receiving weapons have returned to the starting line up, but some of the mistakes are really hard to ignore. It is hard to see Kizer returning as the starter for too much longer in 2018 with the Browns likely to pick a new Quarter Back, but the last three games gives him a chance to show he should be given a chance to compete for the starting job.

It will be very much on Kizer's shoulders on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns can't really rely on a consistent running game despite how well they have been playing of late. This time they are taking on a Baltimore Defensive Line which knows it is the strength for the Ravens and they have been incredibly strong up front which should limit what Isaiah Crowell is able to do on the ground.

The pass rush is going to be another issue for Kizer to deal with, but the Quarter Back is one that can get out of the pocket and try and make some plays with his legs. That could at least buy a little more time and Kizer is going to be throwing into a banged up Secondary where his big Receivers should be able win their battles and at least give Cleveland the chance to move the ball.

Cleveland will need to do that because the Baltimore Offense looks to be showing a bit more life in recent games compared with the rest of the season. Joe Flacco is beginning to hook up with the long pass, while the Offensive Line have enjoyed opening holes for Alex Collins who has been running very effectively.

It has to be said the Browns Defensive unit has played well enough to give their team a chance to win though and they have a Defensive Line which can be tough to run the ball against. There are playmakers up front who will want to get to Flacco and prevent him having the time to make the big throws as well as disrupting the quick throws which have been a part of the Ravens Offense.

Ultimately I do think Baltimore will have success Offensively to make sure they avoid the upset loss. However it may be a tougher day in the office than the layers think and the Browns in receipt of a Touchdown worth of points has to be considered after seeing how disappointed the Ravens will have been in losing to the Steelers in Week 14.

Games in Cleveland tend to be a little closer with the Browns fanbase always ready for the hated Ravens and the number of points at least protects against another late collapse from the Browns. The Ravens may be 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games in Cleveland, but the last three wins have come by 5, 6 and 2 point margins.

You can't ignore how bad Cleveland have been even against the spread, but I think they can play this one closer against a Baltimore team who are off that emotional loss to the Steelers. The Ravens just want to win by any means necessary and I think that could mean a close game and I will take the points here.


Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have got their Christmas wish.

Aaron Rodgers is back to Quarter Back the team the rest of the season.

However it will still need something of a Christmas miracle for the Green Bay Packers to make the Play Offs who have to beat the Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks. All of those teams have winning records, but the return of Rodgers certainly feels like the lift that the Packers have wanted.

Rodgers himself has been speaking about 'lifting' his team mates rather than saving the Green Bay season and I think there will be a little better effort from all of the players with their star player back. To be fair to Green Bay, they have come up big in back to back Overtime wins which has kept the Play Off hopes alive although this is a big game for Rodgers to make his return.

Earlier in the season it may have looked a really difficult game for the Green Bay Packers when the Carolina Panthers were playing some stifling Defense. That has not been the case in more recent games and so Green Bay will feel Rodgers is able to spark something significant for them in this one.

The Packers have been able to run the ball effectively in recent games and I expect they will look to keep things going on the ground with the space that is likely to exist now teams can't focus on stopping the run. With some struggles up front that Carolina are dealing with, Green Bay should be able to find some significant yards on the ground and that should at least make things a little more comfortable for Rodgers.

It will be interesting to see how Rodgers takes the first big hit, which will surely come from this tough Panthers team, but I do think he can come in with some confidence. Rodgers has apparently been lights out in practice for two weeks already and the Packers running the ball effectively means the pass rush is just slowed a little.

Some holes have just begun to show in the Carolina Secondary with the issues stopping the run and I expect the Green Bay Packers will be able to move the chains through the air. This all means there is some pressure on the Panthers to respond Offensively as they look to keep their own Play Off hopes going.

The battle at the line of scrimmage is going to be key when Cam Newton has the ball as the Panthers have been able to establish the run very effectively. They should be able to rip off big gains against the Green Bay Packers too who have begun to have a few injuries wear them down up front, although perhaps the Offensive boost can see the Defensive Line go back to the level they have performed at for much of the season.

It is hard to think Carolina are not able to run the ball though and it will be a key to keeping Rodgers and the powerful Packers Offense on the sidelines. Staying in front of the downs and distances is important for the Panthers who have lost some big Receivers even if Newton is capable of having a big game against a banged up Secondary.

Newton has been plagued by Receivers dropping his passes though which have affected the numbers and he will also have to be aware of the pass rush Green Bay have generated. Suffice to say Newton's ability on the ground means he can get away from the pressure and even run the ball himself, and that is something Green Bay have to be wary of with their issues to stop the run of late.

The Packers were crushed here by the Panthers two years ago, but I do like the visitors with the points this week. The Panthers have not been as strong as a favourite against the spread as they have been when given points this season and the underdog is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight in this series.

Even though Rodgers is coming back from an injury, getting the points with this star Quarter Back is tough to ignore and I think Green Bay could pick up their play in all three phases of the game with the boost in confidence received. It won't be easy against this Carolina team who look capable of making the Play Offs themselves, but I will take the Field Goal start for the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers here.


New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There won't be any panic from the New Orleans Saints having dropped two of their last three games, especially with their destiny still in their own hands. The fact they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 14 means they have also had a little more time to get ready for this game against the New York Jets who have been eliminated from the Play Off picture despite overachieving this season.

The extra days off have been very good news for Alvin Kamara who is set to return having been knocked out of the game against the Falcons and put into the concussion protocol. All signs are pointing to Kamara being back and it was seen how important the Running Back is to what the New Orleans Saints have been doing Offensively this season.

Kamara provides a one-two punch with Mark Ingram at Running Back, while he is also someone that is a huge factor in the passing game and the absence really highlighted that in Week 14.

New Orleans have found a really strong balance on the Offensive side of the ball this season and I do think this is a team that could be very dangerous in the open looking NFC Play Offs that are coming up. The Saints will certainly use all of that balance to keep the Jets guessing as to what is coming and I think the Saints will be able to move the chains and score a fair few points in this one.

There have been signs of wear and tear on the Jets Defensive Line and it would be a surprise if New Orleans are not picking up some big gains on the ground. That only opens the door for Drew Brees to continue making his own big plays from the Quarter Back position and the Jets Secondary is not as strong as it once was.

Brees should be able to see a few short passes to the likes of Kamara go some distance and the Saints are more than capable of putting up a big number against the Jets here.

It's made all the tougher for the Jets when seeing Josh McCown go down with an injury last week which has ended his season. The veteran Quarter Back has played well for New York and now the keys are turned over to Bryce Petty against a New Orleans Defensive unit which have been one of the surprises of the season.

Petty has experience at Quarter Back, but the problems will begin with the Jets unlikely to be able to run the ball with any consistency and that means Petty being left in obvious passing situations. Against this improved Secondary it looks difficult for Petty to have a really strong outing, while he will also have to be aware of the pass rush that New Orleans can generate led by Cameron Jordan.

It looks a tough day for Petty who has to avoid the Interceptions which could see this game really get away from the Jets and I am struggling to see anything other than a big New Orleans win. The spread is a huge one for the Saints to cover, but I think the Jets may have lost some motivation in the blow out defeat at the Denver Broncos last week and that may carry over in a non-Conference game.

The worry for this spread is clearly that it only takes a couple of mistakes for a team to fail to cover, but I like the Saints in the spot. They will be looking to recover from a loss in Week 14 and I think they are well placed to win this one by a wide, wide margin.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: The injury to Carson Wentz in Week 14 was not only a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles fans, but also for all NFL fans with the Play Offs just a few weeks away. Before the injury Philadelphia looked like one of the best teams in the NFL, but losing Wentz means they have taken a significant step backwards even if Nick Foles has played his best professional Football during his time with the Eagles.

Foles can step into a familiar situation and there is plenty of talent on the Eagles roster which can help the Quarter Back keep the train on the tracks. A tough road Divisional game will help us see where Foles and the Eagles stand, but at least the Quarter Back doesn't have to put all the pressure on his own shoulders.

The expectation is that Foles is going to lean heavily on the Philadelphia running game which has been effective and that will then mean the Quarter Back is able to come through with some play-action passes. Being in third and manageable spots also helps Foles who should be able to make enough plays from that position.

Running the ball should slow down the New York pass rush, although Foles has to be aware of where the pressure is coming from. He will have to scramble away from that before firing downfield and I think that is going to be the biggest problem for Foles as he works that into real game time.

Avoiding mistakes is probably the key for Foles as he can lean on the running game and also an under-rated Defensive unit. The New York Giants have struggled Offensively all season with the injuries they have faced and I think the Eagles are going to have a significant edge on that side of the ball which can help them finish with another victory on the board.

Eli Manning may be back behind Center, but the Giants Offensive Line has struggled both in pass protection and running the ball and that is not good news against this Philadelphia Eagles team. The Eagles Defensive Line has really been a huge part of how well they have played this season and they should be able to control the Giants on the ground and leave Manning in third and long situations.

At that point Manning is going to have find a way to avoid the pressure the Eagles can get up front while also being careful in throwing the ball against a Secondary who have been playing at a very high level. The whole day looks like being a tough one for the Giants who don't look to match up well with Philadelphia and they are going to need Foles to have a bad day in the office to really keep this one close.

It isn't easy for the Eagles to play a third consecutive road game, especially as the last two were on the West Coast and now they are back on the East coast. However I think the Eagles players will want to show they can still win even though they have lost a key part of their team in Carson Wentz and that motivation can see the rest of the team step up.

The Giants are also playing out the season and players have to be wondering what the future holds for them with the changes being made throughout the franchise. That may have been part of the reason they imploded in a home loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14 and I think that game would have been more important than this one against the Eagles so I don't anticipate motivation to be much higher.

Philadelphia are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games at the Giants. I think they come out with something to prove on Sunday and they can cover a big number on the road with a couple of key turnovers helping them pull away from the Giants in the second half.


I've added a couple of late plays from the Sunday games to the 'MY PICKS' section below.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams + 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)