NFL Week 15 Picks 2015 (December 17-21)

I can't believe there are only three weeks left of the regular season in the NFL and more Play Off scenarios are likely to be decided as we reach Week 15.

A recap of Week 14 in the NFL as well as the Power Ranking and Week 14 Picks Recap can be found here.

Week 15 Picks

Week 14 was a very good one, but I hope to find the right picks again in Week 15 to make sure this is going to be a successful season.

I won't have a pick from Thursday Night Football as I really can't get a read on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St Louis Rams. The former lost in Week 14 which might have ended Play Off hopes, while the latter are so inconsistent that it wouldn't surprise me if they failed to back up their win over Detroit Lions by looking ahead to their final two Divisional games.

Next week St Louis play Seattle and try to snap that hot run so there is a chance they have looked ahead to that game, but I think this game easily comes down to which of the Running Backs makes a big play or two. I can't pick a game on that basis alone and these teams are evenly matched so I will wait for Saturday, Sunday and Monday games for any picks this week.

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: I hate the fact that there is so much money on the New York Jets but they look the far superior team than the current incarnation of the Dallas Cowboys.

I am not sure how much belief is left in Dallas with their Play Off spot just about gone after the blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers. I will give Dallas credit and say the Defensive unit continues to play hard, but they are getting next to no support from the Offense and it is no surprise that they are getting worn down and then beaten as games reach the third and fourth quarter.

Eddie Lacy and James Starks trampled Dallas last week and the absence of Rolando McClain is a big hole to fill at Linebacker. That could mean Chris Ivory has a chance of a decent game for the Jets, especially as Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well enough at Quarter Back that Dallas can't just load the box and hope to contain the run.

Fitzpatrick is aided by two top Receivers in Erik Decker and Brandon Marshall and I don't think the Dallas Secondary can contain both of those players.

So while I can see New York moving the chains pretty effectively, the same can't really be said for the Dallas Cowboys. Matt Cassel hasn't proved capable of making the throws necessary even teams try to shut down the run and I think that is more difficult for him this week.

Why? Because the Jets Defensive Line have dominated the run all season, but have been even more impressive over their last three games by giving up just 2.4 yards per carry. Dallas can't expect Darren McFadden and Ronnie Turbin to have too many big gains in this one and that means Cassel is throwing from third and long far too often for their liking.

The Jets Secondary does have some holes, but Dez Bryant isn't fully healthy and I think they can make enough plays to limit what the Cowboys can do. Add in the fact that the Jets also get a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back and I am struggling to see how Cassel can help the Cowboys keep this competitive.

I don't like the spread that much, but I do think the Jets will prove to be the better team as the Cowboys season effectively comes to an end. New York can't focus on anything but this game as they try to hold on for a Wild Card spot and the big games with New England and Buffalo might be meaningless if they were to lose. I think Fitzpatrick makes enough big plays to get the Jets into position to win this one by at least seven.


Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Chicago Bears might have seen their season come to an end with back to back losses, but they will have plenty of motivation in playing spoiler at the Minnesota Vikings this week. It still looks like the Vikings are in a position to take one of the Wild Card spots in what is a top heavy NFC, but a defeat might just give them a few more issues to contend with over the final three weeks of the season.

Injuries are hurting Minnesota at this moment, especially Defensively, so the Vikings have to make sure the Offense is back on the same page. Some mistakes on that side of the ball have been part of the reason that Minnesota have lost three of their last four games, although the lack of a consistent way to move the chains hasn't helped.

Teddy Bridgewater has had a couple of very good games this season which have suggested he is more than a game manager, but the majority of the time this team leans on Adrian Peterson. While the Offensive Line has struggled to open holes at times, I think Peterson is established in this game and can have a big running day.

That will make things easier for his Quarter Back, especially as the Chicago Secondary is actually a little under-rated. The Bears have also gotten a fierce pass rush generated in recent games which will give Bridgewater some problems if Peterson is not able to run the ball, something that has been a bit of an issue for Minnesota in their last few games.

Running the ball has been an issue for Chicago too but Matt Forte is back and he is a huge part of the Offensive picture for the Bears. Forte and Jeremy Langford could both have decent outings against the Vikings who are missing the likes of Anthony Barr at Linebacker and Harrison Smith has been hurt at Safety.

Establishing the run is important for the Bears to make sure Jay Cutler is kept in favourable third down situations. Cutler has limited his mistakes in recent games, and he should have some room to find the likes of Alshon Jeffery in this one to move the chains.

This is a revenge game for Chicago too having lost a close one at home to Minnesota and the recent games have all been very competitive. I am surprised that Chicago are being as many points as they with that in mind and the underdog has covered in three of the last four games in Minnesota when these teams meet here.

Too many points as far as I am concerned as Chicago remain competitive in their games and Minnesota will be happy with any kind of win.


Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Pick: The unbeaten Carolina Panthers will know they are visiting a New York Giants team that is desperately fighting for their Play Off future. They will also be aware that the New York Giants have a habit of playing up to the level of opponent they face and are capable of knocking Carolina from the land of the unbeaten.

With a 13-0 record behind them, Carolina are very close to wrapping up home field advantage in the NFC and the concern now has to be injuries. Last week Greg Olsen, Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton were all banged up Offensively, but it looks like only Stewart will be missing in this one.

Newton has been playing like the MVP in recent games and I can see the Quarter Back having a strong day in this one. The New York Giants have struggled for consistent pressure up front and the Secondary hasn't held up well through injuries and I do think Newton's makeshift Receiving corps can find the right creases in the coverage to help Carolina move the chains.

The Giants do continue to play the run well, but their Defensive concerns are in the Secondary and Newton has shown he can stand in the pocket and fizz passes to his Receivers around the field.

That does mean it will be up to Eli Manning and Odell Beckham to find a way to keep up with the Panthers, although Beckham's likely match up with Josh Norman is going to be a huge one for the fans to enjoy. Norman is arguably the best Corner Back in the NFL, while Beckham has the eye for the magical catch and it could be an even contest for much of the day.

Manning has to find his other Receivers in the passing game to perhaps open things up for Beckham, although they will also line him up in different positions to try and get him going. The Panthers will hope to shut down the New York Giants by shutting down the run and then trying to take away Beckham with Norman.

Carolina have played the pass very well in recent games and they do get a lot of pressure up front which is going to be tough for Manning if Ereck Flowers is out or limited.

I do like the Giants as a home underdog though and I think the Carolina injuries might mean they are slowed down just enough. The New York Giants have every chance of winning this game outright, but you can't disrespect Carolina who have played hard by suggesting it will happen. Instead back the Giants with more than a Field Goal worth of points to give another unbeaten team a really tough test.


Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins Pick: It looks like the sharp money in this game is coming down on the Buffalo Bills as this game has moved from a pick 'em to Washington Redskins being set as the home underdog of almost a Field Goal.

I am not sure I fully understand that move, especially as the Buffalo Bills are coming off what was an emotional and perhaps fatal loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. LeSean McCoy has to pick himself up from that and usually I would suggest this is a very good chance for the Running Back to establish the run.

However, this is an area where the Washington Redskins have played well in recent games and they might be able to slow down the Bills on the ground to force Tyrod Taylor to beat them through the air.

Taylor is capable of doing that as this Redskins Secondary has a number of holes in it. I am not sure how Washington will really contain Sammy Watkins, but they do get some decent pass rush pressure and will be looking for that to rattle Taylor who has been banged up.

Washington should have some success when looking to throw the ball themselves as Kirk Cousins has proved he can get the ball downfield. The Bills have struggled to impose their pass rush on teams and that has meant Quarter Backs have had the time to expose any issues in the Secondary.

Cousins may also be aided by the fact that the Redskins might be able to run the ball effectively for the first time in a little while. Both Alfred Morris and Matt Jones are tough runners and the Buffalo Bills have just begin to wear down when it comes to defending the run.

I can really see both teams having their success with the ball in hand in this one, but I can't have the Redskins as the underdog. The Buffalo Bills might already be out of the Play Off picture in the AFC, even if that is not made official just yet, and I think the loss last week is going to be a tough one to overcome.

That isn't to say the Washington Redskins are going to perform just because they are in a position to reach the Play Offs. However Kirk Cousins has been much better at home and has to have had some confidence from finally winning on the road last week. I just don't think they should be almost a Field Goal home underdogs in this one and a small interest on Washington to cover here is the call.


The Christmas rush and parties at this time of the year means I will add the remaining picks from Week 15 below.

MY PICKS: New York Jets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New York Giants + 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oakland Raiders + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos + 7 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Week 14: 8-2, + 10.12 Units
Week 13: 8-3, + 8.06 Units

Week 12: 2-10, - 14.18 Units

Week 11: 3-4-1, - 1.38 Units

Week 10: 3-6, - 5.54 Units

Week 9: 6-2, + 8.08 Units

Week 8: 0-1, - 1 Unit

Week 7: 2-4, - 4.23 Units

Week 6: 3-5-1, - 3.33 Units

Week 5: 3-5-1, - 3.48 Units

Week 4: 4-3-1, + 2.24 Units

Week 3: 8-2, + 9.03 Units

Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units

Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 59-54-5, + 10.14 Units

Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units

Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 14 Recap 2015 (December 16th)

With the Play Offs just three weeks from being put together, the remainder of 2015 is going to bring up some really important games as teams and Head Coaches try and make sure their team is involved in the post-season.

Failing to do that automatically leaves Coaches on the hot seat and there are likely a number of vacancies that will need to be filled in the early part of 2016.

Some don't have to worry about that as the likes of the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals have all made sure they are amongst the last twelve teams standing in January. This week we will likely see a couple more teams added to the mix, while others are drinking in the last chance saloon as they try and give themselves a shot to make the post-season.

Andy Dalton's Injury May Cost the Cincinnati Bengals

You have to always use words like 'may' and 'might' in circumstances like this, but it would take a brave individual to suggest the Cincinnati Bengals are still a Super Bowl contender with Andy Dalton likely sidelined the rest of the way.

I won't criticise a Quarter Back that is willing to make a tackle when throwing an Interception, but Andy Dalton and the entire Cincinnati Bengals staff, owners and fans must have hoped he had decided against doing that in Week 14.

It was a decision that saw him fracture his thumb, but likely fracture Cincinnati's post-season ambitions. Dalton might not have won a Play Off game yet, but the Bengals were on course for a First Round bye in the Play Offs and he is arguably playing the best of his career so every chance he would have snapped his negative record in the post-season.

Now the keys are turned over to AJ McCarron who has led the Alabama Crimson Tide to a couple of National Championships. There is no shortage of confidence in the McCarron camp who effectively compared himself to Tom Brady after the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his actual performance was a little up and down and that inconsistency is not going to cut it in the Play Offs.

It's just hard to say this injury to Dalton isn't anything but a huge blow to Cincinnati and likely to extend their wait for a Play Off spot. I wasn't a huge fan of McCarron at Alabama either so I remain extremely unconvinced he has what it takes to be an effective NFL starting Quarter Back and the last three games of the regular season are huge for him to prove anything different and try to lead the Bengals into a First Round bye.

Jacksonville Jaguars Have an Offense Capable of Big Things, Now they Need the Defensive Pieces

For the last couple of years the Jacksonville Jaguars have looked an improving team, but the last couple of weeks have shown that the Offense is perhaps ready to take off.

Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas and TY Yeldon are young and effective and Jacksonville showed it all off by hanging 50 on Indianapolis this past week.

This is where the pressure begins to build on Gus Bradley as Head Coach, especially next season.

Bradley came over from Seattle where he had the Defensive Co-Ordinator role until 2012 but the Jacksonville Defensive unit is still a work in progress. They have to get better there if this team is to begin to challenge for the AFC South crown and perhaps get back into the Play Offs and the pressure will be on Bradley to get the answers so they can match what the Offense will give to them.

If the Jaguars fail because the Secondary keeps giving up too many big plays, I do think Bradley will be on the hot seat next season, but for now there is a lot of positives at Jacksonville for the fans to look forward to.

And they are also not quite out of the AFC South race this season too!!

Chuck Pagano and the Indianapolis Colts Will Part Way No Matter How the Season Ends

It was a bizarre Press Conference that Chuck Pagano held on Monday and his quotes makes it clear that he knows his time as Indianapolis Colts Head Coach is coming to an end.

This has been rumoured for much of the season thanks to a discord between him and the General Manager and looks to be the outcome even if the Colts were to win the Super Bowl.

It is quite sad that the relationship looks set to end that way as Pagano has done a good job with this Colts team that had been left in a poor spot when he took over. Yes he had Andrew Luck, but the Colts have looked improved the last couple of years and this year looked to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Unfortunately they haven't looked that good all season and even winning the poor AFC South isn't enough to paper over those cracks. Many had the Colts as a potential top two Seed in the AFC, but Luck didn't look right even before his injuries and the Defensive unit has been poor for the most part.

Next week is a huge game to see if the Colts will even be playing in the Play Offs as their grip on the AFC South looks tenuous to say the least, although I am not going to be watching a Charlie Whitehurst vs TJ Yates Quarter Back match up any time soon.

Khalil Mack is Going to be a Disruptive Force in the NFL for Years to Come

For the first time in his career, Peyton Manning must have been pleased he was unable to go for a Football game.

If Manning is banged up now, I have no idea what Khalil Mack would have done to him this past week.

Instead it was Brock Osweiler who took five Sacks from Mack alone as the second year player absolutely destroyed the Denver Offensive Line no matter which side of the Offensive Line he lined up.

Mack looked unbelievable and you can understand why so many Linemen described him as their biggest challenge after his ROOKIE season at the end of last season. He looks like a player that wants to make the best of all he has and Mack could be someone that is a future multiple time Defensive Player of the Year.

It was thanks to him that Oakland managed to come back and beat Denver in Week 14 on the road and his is going to be an integral pieced of this Defense for years to come.

With Derek Carr and Amari Cooper on the Offensive side and Mack on the Defensive side, Oakland have a bright future even if that might not be as the 'Oakland' Raiders.

Biggest Wild Card Threat- Seattle Seahawks or Pittsburgh Steelers?

Back in October when the NFL had a couple of their 'fan days' arranged in the UK, I began to mention the Pittsburgh Steelers as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and arguably the best team in the AFC.

As long as Big Ben could stay healthy.

Of course Ben Roethlisberger is battling through his injuries but the Steelers did lose Le'Veon Bell in that time, although the team is continuing to roll and now looks a real dark horse.

The problem for Pittsburgh is they need to win out and hope the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs or the New York Jets slip up. I definitely see the Jets failing to win all three games, but the point is that Pittsburgh have work to do if they are to get into the Play Offs.

If they do, the Steelers would be my answer to the question I have posed, but right now I have to go with the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are almost guaranteed of reaching the Play Offs via a Wild Card spot and not many teams are playing better than them right now. Russell Wilson looks very comfortable, the Defensive unit have upped their game and Seattle have the experience of back to back Super Bowl appearances which you just can't buy.

I have little doubt they finish Number 5 Seed in the NFC which means a road game against the NFC East winner and who would back against the Seahawks there? Things then become more haphazard with teams like Carolina and Arizona in the top two positions (remember both have won AT Seattle this season), but that is when the experience Seattle have can make a big difference.

Seattle tend to get hot in December since Wilson took over as Quarter Back and they are a real threat to get to a third consecutive Super Bowl on their current form. However, my only concern would be that they have picked up momentum a little too early and Seattle escaped a couple of fortunate bounces to win through the Play Offs the last couple of years.

Of course you need that luck, so Seattle are the answer to the question I posed right now... But if Pittsburgh make the Play Offs, I don't think anyone stops them from reaching the Super Bowl and perhaps winning a second one for Mike Tomlin and third for Ben Roethlisberger.

Top Ten

1) Carolina Panther (13-0): Home field is almost secured and this looks to be the best team in the NFL, but plenty of big challenges await.

2) Arizona Cardinals (11-2): I love what Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals have done this season, but I have a couple of concerns about their Defensive pass rush that might be exposed later in the season.

3) New England Patriots (11-2): They will likely win the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and perhaps are getting a little healthier Offensively, although Defensively they are picking up more health issues.

4) Denver Broncos (10-3): The Defensive unit is capable of leading the Denver Broncos all the way to the Super Bowl, but Quarter Back and Receivers have to get on the same page.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5): I honestly think if this team gets into the Play Offs, they are going to be very difficult to stop getting all the way to Super Bowl 50.

6) Seattle Seahawks (8-5): Very few teams have more experience than this Seattle team at going all the way to the Super Bowl and an extremely hot and dangerous Wild Card.

7) Green Bay Packers (9-4): If Eddie Lacy and James Starks can spark the running game, this team is going to be very strong in the Play Offs.

8) Kansas City Chiefs (8-5): Aside from the Carolina Panthers, no team is on a better winning run than the Kansas City Chiefs. Earning the Number 5 Seed might be good enough for a run to the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but I can't see them going much further.

9) Cincinnati Bengals (10-3): Andy Dalton's injury leads to a significant drop for the Bengals. How AJ McCarron performs in the last three weeks of the regular season will show us how far Cincinnati can go in the Play Offs.

10) New York Jets (8-5): The Jets might be getting hot at the right time, but they have a tough road to negotiate if they are to make the post-season and then try and make some noise.

Bottom Five

32) Tennessee Titans (3-10): I do wonder if Tennessee have given up on the season with an interim Head Coach and being blown out by the New York Jets.

31) San Diego Chargers (3-10): Philip Rivers is the most under-rated Quarter Back in the NFL in my opinion, but San Diego are so banged up on both sides of the ball that he can't carry this team beyond this point.

30) San Francisco 49ers (4-9): An awful performance on the road at the Cleveland Browns might only be saved if the 49ers earn a very high Draft Pick.

29) Cleveland Browns (3-10): Only thing left this season is to see if Johnny Manziel is not the dope he portrays himself to be and CAN be a franchise Quarter Back for the desperate Cleveland Browns.

28) Baltimore Ravens (4-9): You can't lose players like Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith and Terrell Suggs and expect to replace them with a 'next man up' frame of mind.

Week 14 Picks Recap

After going 8-3 in Week 13, I was just hoping to put together a very solid Week 14 to get the season totals back up after that horrendous 2-10 Week 12.

I got even more than I could have asked for with the picks going 8-2 in Week 14 to put together a very strong 16-5 two weeks that have covered the terrible Week 12.

That means the season totals are now in a very strong position again, but there are three more regular season weeks left and pushing on and improving on the last two weeks is the plan. I'll keep doing what has been successful the last two weeks and keep looking for the bounces to land my way as they have and we all need a little bit of luck for the picks to go the way we anticipate.

NFL Week 15 Picks 2014 (December 11-15)

Week 14 Thoughts

Has Mike Pettine left it too late to make the move from Brian Hoyer to Johnny Manziel? On Wednesday, it was officially confirmed that Mike Pettine would make the switch at Quarter Back that many expected at least one week prior.

The Cleveland Browns were beaten by the Indianapolis Colts which leaves them behind their three Divisional rivals in the AFC North and also on the outside of a loaded Wild Card chase in that Conference and I can't help but feel the Head Coach may regret making the move so late.

Brian Hoyer played well early in the season, I won't dispute that, but he has shown himself to be nothing more than a back up in the NFL and the Browns have won a couple of games not because of Hoyer, but because of mistakes made by other teams over the last few weeks.

Overthrown balls, one which even had Manziel being caught on the sidelines saying 'I would have fu**ing hit that' and mistakes from Hoyer kept Indianapolis in the game last week and eventually led to the one point win for the Colts. That loss may haunt Pettine and Cleveland, a team that has been desperate for some consistent success ever since returning to the NFL, but it does feel it may be too late now.

However, the Browns host Cincinnati this week and win that game and they could very much be back in contention- they do need the likes of Pittsburgh and Baltimore to also falter if they are to get into the Play Offs, but Pettine may regret he didn't make the move at Quarter Back sooner if they don't make it.

Jeff Fisher trolls the Washington Redskins: What a great idea from Jeff Fisher to send out the six players that the St Louis Rams picked from the Draft Picks traded to them by the Washington Redskins in the RG3 trade!

It was one of the big talking points of Week 14 and was definitely a very sly dig at Washington that went unnoticed by the Redskins until blowing up on social media and the NFL Network through the rest of the day.

The fact that Fisher is very good friends with Mike Shanahan, the former Washington Head Coach who was fired at the end of last season for falling out with RG3, just adds to the 'trolling level' and makes this more than just a mere point being made by St Louis.

The Jim Harbaugh era at San Francisco is fast coming to a close: All season we have heard that the San Francisco 49ers and Jim Harbaugh were going to part ways at the end of this year after the team came close to trading their Head Coach to Cleveland during the off-season before this year.

While the 49ers were winning, this issue remained on the back-burner, but consecutive defeats have left the team on the brink of elimination from the Play Offs, which would be a real disappointment for this franchise.

The 49ers have reached three consecutive Conference Championship Games, although winning just one of those games, but Colin Kaepernick hasn't progressed at the speed expected and San Francisco seem to have moved from the power running Offense that has been such a success for them.

Too many mistakes from Kaepernick has prevented San Francisco moving forwards and it seems the discontent is too much to overcome in the locker room. Who knows where Harbaugh ends up next, but I would be absolutely stunned if he is still in San Francisco for the start of next season.

Give Aaron Rodgers the MVP award, but Defense needs to step up if Green Bay are to win the Super Bowl: It was another imperious display from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers Offense on Monday Night Football, but he has to be concerned with how the Defense played in the second half if the Packers are going to win the Super Bowl.

Rodgers is undoubtedly going to win the MVP award this season, especially if he finishes the season by guiding Green Bay to the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. The Packers have played very well at Lambeau Field and will be tough to beat there, but it all boils down to how well Rodgers has played ever since he told Packer nation to 'R-E-L-A-X'.

However, that Defensive effort was not good enough in allowing the Atlanta Falcons to produce a stirring comeback that was only a few points short of actually turning into a win. There wasn't enough pressure on Matt Ryan in the second half, while the Secondary couldn't get close to Julio Jones and I think it does raise some questions about the Green Bay chances to win it all.

They did play a lot better against New England so perhaps it was more complacency than a general trend, but the Packers won't get away with that against the Detroit Lions in Week 17 and certainly won't get away with it in the Play Offs unless they bring a better effort.

Play Off Predictions: AFC- New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Baltimore and Kansas City.

NFC- Green Bay, Seattle, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Detroit and Dallas.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (10-3): Still deserve to be Number 1, but Defensive effort has to be better going forward than what they showed on Monday Night Football.

2) New England Patriots (10-3): Impressive road win at San Diego and all roads to the Super Bowl go through New England in the AFC.

3) Denver Broncos (10-3): Denver can clinch a Play Off place by winning in San Diego this week and keeping the pressure on New England for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

4) Seattle Seahawks (9-4): Impressive win on the road at Philadelphia and the Defense is playing to the level that won Seattle the Super Bowl last season.

5) Detroit Lions (9-4): Defense is legit, and Detroit are not shooting themselves in the foot as they would normally do.

6) Philadelphia Eagles (9-4): Not quite good enough against the best teams, but can virtually clinch the NFC East Division title by beating the Cowboys again this week.

7) Dallas Cowboys (9-4): Dallas allowed Chicago to rally on Thursday Night Football, but they held them off for a vital win in the race for a Play Off spot.

8) Indianapolis Colts (9-4): Indianapolis can win the AFC South this weekend, but they don't have all the tools for a deep Play Off run in my opinion.

9) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5): Have control of their own destiny to win the AFC North, but can't afford to have a let down at the Atlanta Falcons this week.

10) Baltimore Ravens (8-5): A vital win at the Miami Dolphins gives Baltimore an inside track for one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC.

Bottom Five

32) Tennessee Titans (2-11): They were blown out by the New York Giants at home and this is a team that looks bad on both sides of the ball.

31) New York Jets (2-11): Something of a reverse Super Bowl this week as the Jets will travel to Tennessee to determine the 'worst team in the NFL' spot for next week.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11): Lovie Smith must be looking to the Draft as this season has lurched from worse to worse for Tampa Bay.

29) Washington Redskins (3-10): Awful team, awful franchise and Jay Gruden might be the next ex Head Coach.

28) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11): There are some pieces set for the future of Jacksonville, but Oakland deserved to come out of the bottom five with an improved Derek Carr and two wins from their last three games.

Week 15 Picks

So where to begin with Week 14? I have never seen a day go down the pan so quickly and rapidly with seemingly every bit of bad luck that could happen show itself.

There were some bad picks in there that never looked like winning, I will accept that, but some of the others just hurt because of the manner in which they went down.

Indianapolis didn't deserve to cover, but they did have the chance for a two point conversion which would have at least earned a push.

Tampa Bay got down to the Detroit 15 and had four clear shots to get into the endzone which would have at least seen them cover, but Josh McCown can't hit any of his big Receivers to do that.

Oh, but Buffalo can convert a 4th and 16 inside their own redzone to then march up the field and secure a Touchdown, with another 4th down converted, which allows them to finish within 7 of Denver.

San Diego played a close game with New England and were down 9 points with the ball at midfield and 4th down and 4 to go... So what do they do? Of course, they punt the ball away and get it back with almost no time remaining and deep in their own territory.

And just in case my week could not have been any worse, Green Bay blow a 31-7 half time lead and then were up big in the second half but allow Matt Ryan to pull the game to within 6 points... Yet James Starks produces a huge run and is only just pulled down on the Atlanta 10 yard line which would have been another push at the least!

If those five games go the other way, it is actually a winning week, but instead big losses thanks to some ridiculous plays that can't be justified.

Arizona Cardinals @ St Louis Rams Pick: I have made a point of saying that I don't believe the Arizona Cardinals will make the Play Offs this season since Carson Palmer went down with an injury, but they can effectively prove me wrong by winning this game. A few weeks ago, Arizona would likely have come into St Louis and been favoured to beat the Rams, but recent performances from the latter have made them a pretty strong favourite in this one.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of the public money is going on the 10-3 Cardinals as the underdog, but I think the St Louis Rams are the better team at this moment and might have enough to cover a pretty large spread.

Since reinserting Shaun Hill into the line up, St Louis have played better Offensively and giving Tre Mason more carries and not wasting time with Zak Stacy is another good example of good coaching. Hill is more than a game manager, but it is avoiding mistakes that is his biggest complement and the Quarter Back could have a decent game with Antonio Cromartie likely out of the Arizona Secondary.

Of course, Mason may just get a chunk of yardage on the ground as Arizona have begun to struggle a little in that regards and that should just make life easier for Hill.

The Quarter Back also has felt a little less pressure in the last four games considering how well the St Louis Rams Defense has begun to perform. The Defensive Line was considered one of the best in the NFL before the season began and they have really shown up of late and could give Drew Stanton more problems after his struggles in relief of Carson Palmer.

Stanton might not have the benefit of Kerwynn Williams picking up large amounts of yards on the ground either as this is where St Louis have begun to excel. If they can keep Arizona in third and long, St Louis should be able to tee off on Drew Stanton and pick up sacks and force incompletions and possible turnovers to take control of the game.

Arizona haven't been good playing on Thursday Night Football over the last three seasons, failing to cover twice in their two opportunities in that time. The Cardinals have been out-gained in three straight games since Stanton took over as the full time starter and St Louis are a decent favourite to back. It all points to St Louis covering a big number and putting more doubt on Arizona's Play Off credentials.


Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: This is the game that New England would love to secure another AFC East Division title and continue on the road to picking up the Number 1 Seed in the Conference as they look for revenge against the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins have won the last 2 games in the series, but those were in the warmth of home and it is a big ask for them to pick themselves up from a demoralising loss last week and win in Foxboro in the cold. Baltimore's win in Miami means the Dolphins already look out of the Play Off picture, but another defeat this week will ensure that and likely mean big changes in the Coaching staff in the off-season.

It is hard to see how Miami win this game as their Offensive game plan is unlikely to have the same success as when they met New England earlier this season. The read-option is a huge play for the Dolphins, but Lamar Miller is unlikely to establish the run to the same extent Knowshon Moreno did as New England have clamped down on that with their run Defense over the last three games.

That will mean forcing Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball and he has only been comfortable doing that in short to intermediate routes. Against this New England Secondary, that is unlikely to be a productive method of Offense and Miami might be playing catch up if New England can produce a strong Offensive game.

LaGarrette Blount has given New England a new punch in the running game and Miami have allowed 5.7 yards per carry over their last three games which could be exposed here. Bill Belichick showed he is willing to pound the ball against susceptible Defenses in the win over the Indianapolis Colts and that will only open the passing lanes for Tom Brady to connect with Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.

The Miami Defense has looked a little tired in the last few games and both Denver and Baltimore scored comfortably against them as the game wore on. Even the New York Jets were moving the ball with ease through the game, but lost it through missed Field Goals and New England are unlikely to make those mistakes.

New England have covered in 3 of their last 4 home games against Miami and they should be fully focused with revenge in mind. The cold weather likely won't help and I think the Patriots beat the big spread.


Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Houston Texans have given themselves a small chance of making the Play Offs with consecutive victories, but now they take on Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts who have dominated this Divisional series. The Colts have the added motivation of securing a place in the Play Offs with a win on Sunday and Luck has been very good in Division games since taking over from Peyton Manning as the Indianapolis Quarter Back.

It was another strong drive led by Luck that helped the Colts win their third game in a row last week and this game is likely to be driven by what he can do. Luck has enough scrambling ability to avoid the pass rush that Houston send for the most part, but he also has to eliminate some of the strip sacks and Interceptions he has had.

I would expect Houston to have some success throwing the ball themselves, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is due a couple of back breaking turnovers that have blighted him through his career. If Andre Johnson is out, there aren't a lot of options for Fitzpatrick in the passing game and that could lead to him forcing balls into tight windows that sees the Colts pick up short fields, much as they did in the first game.

Indianapolis have won 12 in a row at home against Houston in this series and 4 in a row overall. Andrew Luck has led the Colts to a 13-2 record against the spread against Divisional rivals since coming into Indianapolis, while they are 18-6 against the spread in home games.

As well as Houston have played on the road, they are just 2-4 against the spread as the underdog this season and I will look for Indianapolis to cover for the fifth time in a row at home against them.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a huge line for the Baltimore Ravens to cover, but it might be a good enough spot to back them to do so considering the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing out the string and perhaps are looking ahead to being in the spotlight on Thursday Night Football in an AFC South game against the Tennessee Titans.

The problem for the Jaguars is that their Offense is going to have a really hard time moving the chains against a Baltimore Defense that is giving up just 14.5 points per game at home this season. Granted they allowed 34 points in their last home game against the San Diego Chargers, but the Ravens had given up just 24 points in their three prior home games and have a pass rush that could have Blake Bortles consistently under pressure.

That pressure could lead to turnovers and short fields for the Baltimore Ravens to work with. As well as the Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive Line has played, Justin Forsett should still be able to earn his hard fought yards on the ground and Joe Flacco could use that to make plays against a Secondary that has given up plenty of yards through the air.

Baltimore have to be looking to make a fast start in this game and they can use a couple of turnovers to make sure they pull away from the Jaguars in the game. They are facing a Jacksonville team that have failed to cover in their two games as a double digit underdog this season and one that doesn't have a lot on the line.

The Ravens have dominated when playing teams with losing records and have the momentum from the win over Miami to cover this big number by beating the Jaguars while going away. The strong pass rush could just lead to the mistakes that help Baltimore do that, even in the absence of Torrey Smith.


Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The only concern you would have for the Green Bay Packers is to whether they have peaked too early in their quest to get back to the Super Bowl having won 5 in a row and being fairly dominant in those games. Most of those games were played at Lambeau Field where Aaron Rodgers has been particularly dominant over the last couple of seasons, but going on the road has proved to be a much tougher task for the Green Bay Packers all season.

The Offense is averaging nearly 20 points fewer on the road as they are at home and that has to be a concern if they don't secure the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. Green Bay also come up against a Buffalo Defense that has gotten a lot of pressure up front and has a Secondary that has held up well thanks to that pressure, including picking off Peyton Manning twice last week and snapping his long run of games with a Touchdown pass.

One key to the whole game in this one is how well the improved Offensive Line Green Bay can hold up against the pass rush- if they continue giving Rodgers the time he has had in recent games, the Buffalo Secondary can only hold up so long against speedy and elusive Receivers like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Neither team is likely to run the ball all that effectively and the question becomes whether Kyle Orton can do enough with the ball in his hands to keep Buffalo in the game. Orton would have been boosted by seeing the Green Bay Secondary torched on Monday Night Football, but he isn't as elusive as Matt Ryan and the Packers pass rush could certainly bring him down a few times.

Turnovers could also be key and Orton is more likely to make those mistakes compared with Rodgers, although the Bills pass rush may force more errant throws from Rodgers than we have come to expect. In saying that, I still expect Green Bay to perhaps come close to matching what New England did here and score 28 plus points and that will be tough for Buffalo to keep up with in my opinion.

Green Bay are just 2-2 against the spread as the road favourite this season and Buffalo have been a strong underdog, but I still believe this spread is too low. Unless Kyle Orton converts another 4th and 16 and then drives Buffalo to a backdoor cover like in Week 14, I like the Packers to win and cover here with too much Offense.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Sweeping a Divisional rival is a difficult task, but failure of the Cleveland Browns to do that against the Cincinnati Bengals likely ends Cleveland's Play Off push for another season. On the other hand, another loss for the Cincinnati Bengals puts them in a very difficult spot with the tie against Carolina then working against them rather than for them as it has in recent weeks.

Of course all of the news is about Johnny Manziel making his first start at Quarter Back for Cleveland, the right move that should have perhaps been made a couple of weeks ago. I can't help but feel that Marvin Lewis' comments about not worrying about a 'midget' is going to haunt him in this one, especially with the ability that Manziel has to scramble and make plays.

That scrambling is going to make life tough for a Bengals Defense that has struggled for much of the season and missing some important pieces on that side of the ball. I also think Manziel will prove to be a better passer than Brian Hoyer and Josh Gordon could become a real player in this one having been missed by the previous Quarter Back on some open plays.

While Manziel gives the whole Offense a boost, the Browns Defense has played well and may slow down AJ Green enough to give Cleveland a chance to sweep their in-State rivals. The Browns got a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck last week and could make Andy Dalton very nervous considering his near epic low performance against Cleveland earlier this season.

Cincinnati have not been a great team to back to revenge a loss and I think Manziel can lead Cleveland to the win and keep them in the Play Off hunt.


Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Pick: This is a vital game for both of these AFC West rivals as the Denver Broncos look to wrap up the Division, as well as staying in contention for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, and San Diego Chargers look to hold on to a Wild Card place.

The winner will be well on the way to achieving their goals for the season, but the loser, especially if that is the San Diego Chargers, could be in big trouble going forward. Philip Rivers and the Offense should have an easier time moving the chains than they found against the New England Patriots in Week 14 as Denver don't have the same strength in the Secondary, although the Broncos should get a tonne of pressure on Rivers.

San Diego's Offensive Line has struggled with injuries and the likes of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller could have another big day for Denver. Ryan Matthews might not have a lot of success running the ball which will only allow the Broncos pass rush to pin back their ears and get after Rivers and San Diego may have another tough day moving the chains.

The same could be said for Denver who haven't looked right in recent weeks, particularly Peyton Manning. However, I think Manning will enjoy the conditions in San Diego and will especially enjoy the fact that Julius Thomas looks set to return to the Offense.

That is a big body to use in the Red Zone where Denver have begun to struggle to throw the ball and I expect Thomas resolves those issues. The San Diego Defense played so well against New England in Week 14, but the Offense couldn't help them out, and there has to be some tired minds and bodies from that game. It may be a week to recover, but now they face another powerful Offense and I think Denver continues dominance of these Divisional games since Peyton Manning arrived.

Denver are 11-4 against the spread against AFC West rivals since Manning started playing for the Broncos and they have won both visits to San Diego by 8 points or more. The Chargers have failed to cover against a Divisional rival this season and they were outplayed by Denver in the first meeting- this will be closer but I still like the Broncos to win by a Touchdown.


San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: There has been a lot of sharp money going down on the San Francisco 49ers this week which has seen this spread come down by a point in their favour, but that now has me liking the Seattle Seahawks to cover.

Jim Harbaugh looks about done in San Francisco and the team has begun to collapse with injuries on the Defense coupled with Colin Kaepernick's obvious regression as he has been asked to throw instead of leaning on the power running game.

Now the Seattle Defense has begun to play to the level of 2013, it is hard to imagine how San Francisco can improve on their showing on Thanksgiving Day against them, particularly as this one is on the road. The Seattle home crowd are going to be going crazy and that noise could see Kaepernick self-combust and give the Seahawks the edge in the game.

Both Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch could help the Seahawks dominate on the ground again and I think San Francisco are going to have to go some to keep this close. However, I do have respect for this being the last chance saloon for Harbaugh and the 49ers so could see their absolute best effort.

This is enough points for the 49ers to earn a late backdoor cover, but Seattle have been so good at home and have blown out San Francisco in their last 2 regular season games here. If the Seahawks get ahead, maybe the San Francisco players lose their motivation a little with the season almost certainly over and that could see the Seahawks cover.


Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: In recent seasons I would have been absolutely convinced that this would the kind of game that the Dallas Cowboys would lose and subsequently find themselves failing to reach the Play Offs.

The loser of this game will certainly be in a difficult spot to get into the post-season considering they will be dropped to 9-5, but the real meaning of the game might only be highlighted by kick off. If Seattle, Green Bay and Detroit win, the losing team would be at least one game back in the Wild Card race with only one place left to battle for.

It would be especially daunting for the Dallas Cowboys as they would have likely lost the NFC East by being swept by Philadelphia and I expect a much better effort than the one they produced on Thanksgiving Day when destroyed at home by the Eagles. The Defense is still a problem and I expect Mark Sanchez to have a bounce back game from the one against Seattle last week.

However, I also think Tony Romo and the Dallas Offense will have a better game- I think the Offensive Line makes enough adjustments to protect him a little more and I expect Romo to have a better passing day thank he did on Thanksgiving. The Philadelphia Secondary isn't as good if Romo can get time to throw against them and I like the Cowboys to make this a much closer game.

The Cowboys are 13-6 against the spread as the underdog in the last three seasons and they have also played well in revenge spots. After the brutal way they were put away on Thanksgiving Day, I think Dallas are more effective in this one and I like getting more than a field goal head start in this one.

0 Unit Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points, New York Giants - 6.5 Points, Oakland Raiders + 10 Points, Carolina Panthers - 3 Points, New York Jets - 2.5 Points, Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points

MY PICKS: St Louis Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 4 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 56-63-2, - 13.46 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units