Boxing Picks 2023- Day of Reckoning (December 23rd)

It has already been a quality month of Boxing, but the card that has been put together by Saudi Arabia and led by Frank Warren has plenty of star power attached to it.

Eddie Hearn will also be in Riyadh for the 'Day of Reckoning' with the likes of Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder headlining separate events. There is every hope that a win each would mean we have a fight between the two that has been long in the making and potentially landing in the first quarter of the 2024 season.

Plenty of other big name Heavyweights and also the leading Cruiserweight and, arguably, the leading Light Heavyweight will also be showcased on this card just two days before Christmas.

Earlier this month, Devin Haney really showed what he is about by shutting out Regis Prograis after knocking down the Light-Welterweight World Champion before a wide, wide Decision on the cards.

That is huge news for Haney who continues to look like a fighter that can move even higher in the weight Divisions.

Most exciting is that Devin Haney is willing to make the big fights and there looks to be some really good looking bouts involving the American over the next couple of years.

He looks special and will move into the Pound for Pound Rankings, but Bam Rodriguez arguably impressed even more when Stopping Sunny Edwards.

Bam is going to be moving up the weight Divisions and is chasing a fight with Juan Francisco Estrada after the superb all around performance in beating Edwards. He is another that is still young enough to grow further and perhaps even become a three or four weight World Champion and the statement win on Saturday will mean plenty are going to be watching his career with real interest.

It has been a really good year for the Boxing fans around the globe with some quality fights, although my Picks have not been able to have the successes of 2022.

That is a disappointment, but there are two more cards to come before the end of the season and there are already some really good looking nights on the schedule in January and February.

As fans, we have to be excited by what is to come and the hope is that there are some seriously good fights yet to be announced- we may have news as soon as the 'Day of Reckoning' is in the books and it should be another fun year for all to enjoy.

One fight we are not expecting to get over the line is the Conor Benn vs Chris Eubank Jr one that had been rumoured for Saturday 3rd February- I expect that to be revisited later in the year if Benn can finally clear his issues with the British Board, but for now both will move in different directions and Benn's next fight is expected to be announced imminently as he looks to get out on that date anyway.

Day of Reckoning- Anthony Joshua vs Otto Wallin/Deontay Wilder vs Joseph Parker

The money has been lined up to put this stacked card together in Saudi Arabia, although the excitement of seeing so many big names on the same bill has perhaps overshadowed the match making.

In reality this is the fight before THE fight for a lot of the favourites on show in Riyadh.

The headliner and expected main event is Anthony Joshua who has made good on his promise to become more active this year after back to back losses to Oleksandr Usyk. This will be the third time he has been in the ring since April and it should only help improve him as a fighter, while also rebuilding what may believe is shattered confidence.

Being 'gun shy' in the Heavyweight Division is a recipe for disaster, but Anthony Joshua has gone to work with Ben Davison and this is expected to help him uncork a few more combinations. The talk is that he will head back to Texas to work with Derrick James, but the Davison link up is interesting.

Tyson Fury's former Head Trainer, Ben Davison was let go after the close win over Otto Wallin when he was heavily criticised by John Fury. He had some decent work put together with Fury and Ben Davison has also been pretty important for other big name British Boxers.

Having that insight into Wallin should help and Anthony Joshua is expected to be well prepared, although will need to be better than he was against Robert Helenius.

It was a brutal Knock Out, but Otto Wallin is not nearly as shop-worn as Helenius. He has won six in a row since the loss to Fury, when his stock rose significantly, and the Swede is a big Southpaw, which is going to be a tough test for the former Heavyweight Champion.

At the same it should be noted that Wallin has not nearly built on the performance against Fury in the manner expected- his best wins since that defeat are against Dominic Breazeale (UD) and Murat Gassiev (SD), but this is a considerable step up.

Otto Wallin has shown he has decent fundamentals, but the feeling is that he lacks top level power and may not be able to test the Anthony Joshua chin much more than Jermaine Franklin and Robert Helenius.

The Southpaw stance will cause some problems, but Joshua might be able to get into a position where his combinations can be unleashed. The power is still there when he throws and Anthony Joshua looks like he could make a real statement on this Day of Reckoning by forcing a Stoppage of a potential banana skin of an opponent.

The chief support is supplied by Deontay Wilder who faces Joseph Parker, a meeting between two former Heavyweight Champions who could put three of the four World Titles on the line if they had come together for a Unification in 2019. Instead it was Anthony Joshua who took on Parker and beat him to Unify, but both Wilder and Parker have spoken about the excitement of finally being able to lock horns.

Back in March 2018, both Anthony Joshua and Joseph Parker were unbeaten World Champions and the latter became the first to complete all Twelve Rounds against AJ. He still lost on the day, but Parker has continued to be in and around the UK scene, while getting closer to another World Title shot.

Ultimately he has come short thanks to losses to Dillian Whyte and Joe Joyce and there is still the feeling that he 'lacks the mongrel' to really take on the best.

There are attributes to respect- Joseph Parker is athletic and quick and has decent pop, but his three wins since being Stopped by Joe Joyce have been against middle of the road Heavyweights.

Now he takes on one of the best.

Deontay Wilder's inactivity is perhaps the biggest worry, although the power of that right hand will still be very much active.

One Round in over two years cannot be good for anyone though and you have to believe Joseph Parker will offer a bit more than Robert Helenius who was wiped out just before the end of the First Round by the American former WBC World Champion.

There is still talk about becoming Undisputed, but that is a long way away for Deontay Wilder and especially with some of the Belts expected to fracture once the Tyson Fury-Oleksandr Usyk fight on 17th February is completed. At 38 years old, time is not on the side of Deontay Wilder and instead the focus might be on targeting a massive payday against Anthony Joshua.

Rumours are that a fight between the two has been agreed as long as both come out of the Day of Reckoning with another win on the resume.

Andy Lee will devise a strong game plan for Joseph Parker and Tyson Fury will have given him some insight- what cannot be denied is that Deontay Wilder got to Fury a number of times across their three fights, and the question is whether Parker has the same power of recovery.

It feels like that time might have gone for the New Zealander who has been put down by Whyte, Chisora and down for good by Joe Joyce. Deontay Wilder sets up his right hand well enough to believe he will be able to find the shot or two he needs and Joseph Parker may no longer have the kind of resistance needed to push the American as deep into this fight as he would be targeting.

It is a Heavyweight night in Saudi Arabia right up and down the card.

One of the Super-Heavyweights making noise in the lead up to the Day of Reckoning is Jarrell Miller who takes on Daniel Dubois in a fascinating clash.

In another universe Miller has not made the mistakes and poor decisions that saw a potential home fight with Anthony Joshua fall apart and perhaps it was him, not Andy Ruiz Jr, who caused a monster upset in June 2019. In our world, Jarrell Miller is rightly criticised for the failed drugs tests that led to a ban from the sport, although Boxing will sweep issues under the carpet when it comes to chasing the cash.

There is little doubt that Miller is an excellent character for those looking for a soundbite, and he has been very good at that during this run towards December 23rd. However, the American is a significant underdog in this fight with Daniel Dubois, even if the confidence is seeping out of every pore and every time Jarrell Miller speaks.

The two defeats suffered by Daniel Dubois has aided that confidence- losing to Joe Joyce and Oleksandr Usyk is no disgrace for a relatively young Heavyweight, but a perception that Dubois 'quit' in both losses is much harder to shake.

The feeling about the bout is that Daniel Dubois has plenty of punch power and speed that makes him very dangerous early... However, what is he going to do if this huge American is still standing after Six Rounds and still plodding forward throwing his punches in bunches?

Jarrell Miller is not the biggest hitter, but he throws a lot and wears down opponents mentally and physically.

Not to be that guy, but I am unsure what the testing procedures have been for this event that was announced in a pretty small window.

Since returning from his ban, Jarrell Miller has not really impressed, although he has banked some Rounds. The Sixth Round win over Lucas Browne last April is nothing to write home about, but Miller has shown durability and he will need all of that in this fight.

It is early when Daniel Dubois will have the majority of his success- only one of his victories has come beyond the Fifth Round, while both of his losses have been late in those fights with Joyce and Usyk. He might be winning early, but Dubois is going to have to show something that he has not before and this looks like potentially being the one big upset on a card stacked with favourites.

This is a expected to be scheduled as a Ten Rounder, so it is possible that Dubois can bank enough Rounds early on to win this one even if it gets to the cards.

What has to be shown is the ability to handle the pressure and being able to ignore the negativity of when a fight is going against him- you know Jarrell Miller will bring as much mental pressure as physical pressure, and a small interest in the New Yorker to come through with an important win has to be taken.

Some were surprised that Jarrell Miller would get the call on such a big card after his previous issues, but Mark de Mori being asked to fight Filip Hrgovic really came out of left field.

The last most would have seen of de Mori is losing to David Haye in the First Round in January 2016.

He has won all eleven fights since that defeat, but those have been against much lower level than facing someone like Hrgovic who will have World Title ambitions.

Filip Hrgovic can be something of a slow starter, but Mark de Mori has openly stated that he is going to come forward and try and make this a fight and that can only be bad news.

There are two other Heavyweight bouts on this deep card and one that is perhaps more intriguing than the other.

Arslanbek Makhmudov is going to be well supported in Saudi Arabia, but Agit Kabayel will also have plenty backing him.

Both are unbeaten and will be looking to push on for a World Title shot in 2024 once the Belts fracture after February 17th.

The feeling is that Kabayel has not really kicked on his career as he should have and he has been relatively inactive. He might try and move and frustrate the big Russian, but the expectation is that Arslanbek Makhmudov will test the Agit Kabayel chin pretty early.

Most have not been able to stand up to that power and the man with seventeen Stoppages in eighteen wins can secure another relatively early ending to the work.

Frank Sanchez is expected to have too much for Junior Fa who has lost to Joseph Parker and Lucas Browne when stepping up his level of competition.

The loss to Browne was really stunning and this looks a match up in which Cuban Flash can impress.

A couple of British fighters have been afforded a big opportunity to take on arguably the best in class in their respective Divisions.

While this is a Heavyweight loaded card, both Dmitry Bivol and Jai Opetaia are also defending their Light Heavyweight and Cruiserweight World Titles.

Most would accept that Opetaia is the man to beat at Cruiserweight, but Dmitry Bivol needs to get business sorted with the winner of the Artur Beterbiev-Callum Smith fight to prove he is the man at Light Heavyweight.

Dmitry Bivol should have too much for Lyndon Arthur, although the question marks are around the fact that the World Champion has not been in the ring for thirteen months.

He has been dealing with injury and Dmitry Bivol can sometimes coast to an easy Decision, but Lyndon Arthur has looked a little worn down at times in recent fights.

Anthony Yarde Stopped him and other opponents have hurt him, which is a problem for the British fighter and Bivol can force an end before needing the judges to determine the winner.

If the feeling is that Lyndon Arthur is stepping up, it is certainly the case for Ellis Zorro.

He is unbeaten in seventeen, but Ellis Zorro has never been in with anyone of this level and the lack of Stoppages on the record is massive concern against someone like Jai Opetaia.

The latter crushed Jordan Thompson in Four Rounds to take that unbeaten record from a British fighter and Jai Opetaia is expected to have his own way in this one.

A vicious puncher, this is a good chance for Opetaia to just remind all that he is still the man to see in the Cruiserweight Division, even after being ridiculously forced to drop his IBF World Title by agreeing to head to Riyadh for this bout.

MY PICKS: Anthony Joshua to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Deontay Wilder to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Jarrell Miller @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Filip Hrgovic to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arslanbek Makhmudov to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Frank Sanchez to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)

Dmitry Bivol to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jai Opetaia to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 58-107, - 41.33 Units (305 Units Staked, - 13.55% Yield) 

NFL Week 16 Picks 2018 (December 22-24)

Like Week 15, we start Week 16 on Saturday in the 2018 season as we get down to determining those teams who are going to be playing Football in January and those who will be preparing for changes ahead of the 2019 season.

There were no Picks last weekend because of events outside of my control, but the Week 16 Picks will be added to this thread in the next several hours.


Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans Pick: In Week 16 of the NFL season there are always going to be games of tremendous importance and it no longer matters whether the games you are playing are Divisional, Conference or non-Conference ones at this stage of the regular season. The two teams who open up Week 16 will know all about it when the television cameras head to Nashville for this Saturday afternoon game.

The Tennessee Titans (8-6) are hosting this one and they are chasing what is likely to be the Number 6 Seed in the AFC, although the likes of the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens are their main rivals for that spot. The Titans have won two games in a row when it looked like their season might be going down the toilet and that will give them confidence to take into this game.

Their opponents are the Washington Redskins (7-7) who came back to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 to stay alive in the NFC East. The win over the Jaguars means Washington are just a game behind the Dallas Cowboys for the Division lead with two games left to play, but the Redskins will only be able to overcome all of their injuries and make the Play Offs if they win out and receive a bit of luck from other teams in the Conference.

Washington are down to their fourth choice Quarter Back having seen Alex Smith and Colt McCoy lost to serious injury, while the decision to pick Mark Sanchez to come in was quickly realised to be a poor choice. Now it is Josh Johnson who will be playing for the Redskins at Quarter Back and leading the team to a win in Jacksonville means the fans will be behind him even if many are questioning why Washington refused to consider Colin Kaepernick.

That decision may be the one that prevents Washington in making the Play Offs, but they don't deserve much else when giving Sanchez an undeserved shot at redemption in the NFL. I don't like being too harsh on players, but Johnson is not a serviceable Quarter Back at this level and Washington are going to have to use a lot of deception if they want to move the ball in this one.

Running the ball straight at the Titans will not really work with the Tennessee Defensive Line showing they can clamp down on the run all season. They've been even more improved in that department as they have embarked on a winning run to close out the season and keeping Washington in third and long spots will mean the Titans are exactly where they want to be.

Johnson isn't going to have a lot of time even if he was a prototypical NFL Quarter Back because the Offensive Line is banged up and the Titans have a powerful front four who can get to the Quarter Back. The pressure up front has meant it is difficult to throw the ball against this Secondary and I do think Tennessee's Defensive unit is going to make it very difficult for Johnson and Adrian Peterson to get going and thus make it hard for the Redskins to move the chains consistently.

Being alive in the Play Off race should give Washington plenty of motivation to perform, but the Defensive Line and Linebackers have to show they are willing to make the big tackles to do that. It has been possible for teams to run the ball on the Redskins of late and Tennessee might be playing as well as any team when it comes to crashing through the trenches with their Running Backs.

Derrick Henry has been the star over the last couple of weeks and he can continue from where he left off in Week 15. In recent games the Redskins have given up some big yards on the ground and Henry could be able to have a huge game in what is usually Championship Weekend for Fantasy Football players around the world.

Marcus Mariota is able to run the ball from the Quarter Back position too, although the Titans won't risk their starter and instead will use Henry and Dion Lewis in tandem in the backfield. The Quarter Back has not been concerned with how the Titans have looked to win games and I don't think he will mind not having to throw the ball as long as Henry and Lewis continue to rip off huge gains.

It will open up the play-action passes for Mariota and I do think it could be difficult for Washington to remain motivated if they are struggling in the trenches on both sides of the ball. We saw them collapse against the New York Giants, while their Play Off hopes may still be alive but they are also facing a very motivated Tennessee team.

The Redskins had been blown out in back to back games before the win over the Jaguars in Week 15 and I think they could suffer a big loss here. The spread is a big one, but Tennessee have won a couple of games in a row by a wide margin and they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine home games.

As well as Washington did to win last week, they will have much more trouble stopping the Tennessee Offensive Line from opening lanes for Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. They have struggled to back up straight wins in the last couple of years as the Redskins are 5-11 against the spread in the last sixteen after a win and I am going to have a small interest on Tennessee being able to come through with a big win that ends Washington's season.


Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: All credit has to be given to Head Coach Anthony Lynn who decided he would go for two points at the end of regulation in Week 15 as the Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) managed to beat the Kansas City Chiefs and earn a Play Off spot. If you think the team will be satisfied with that then you would be mistaken and the Chargers will know if they win out and the Chiefs trip up then it will be Los Angeles receiving the Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season.

In fact winning out and finishing 13-3 will be enough for the Chargers to have home field advantage throughout the Play Offs if the Chiefs lose one of their final two games. That has to be giving Philip Rivers huge motivation as he is also one of the leading contenders to win the MVP award while he may not have too many more chances to reach a maiden Super Bowl.

Week 15 looks a difficult game for the Chargers though as they host the Play Off chasing Baltimore Ravens (8-6) who have found a spark since Lamar Jackson was given the starting Quarter Back spot ahead of Joe Flacco. That has been a decision that has not gone down well with Flacco, but the Baltimore players are much more confident in Jackson and they have responded with four wins from five games with the sole loss coming in Overtime at the Kansas City Chiefs.

It may not be an ideal match up for the Ravens as they are facing a Chargers Defensive Line who have really tightened up against the run. In general the Defensive unit have been playing very well, but Jackson is a different kind of Quarter Back than to any they have seen so far this season with Baltimore essentially using the run option to get things going for their team.

The Baltimore Offensive Line has relished blocking for the Running Backs and Quarter Back to move the chains on the ground, but Jackson is a capable passer too. He hasn't shown that too much at the moment, but running the ball should mean the Ravens are able to employ pass-action and at least give their young Quarter Back to make plays down the field.

This is going to be a test for Jackson at Quarter Back, but veteran Philip Rivers is not going to have things all his own way when playing one of the top Defenses in the NFL. I love how Rivers has been playing for the Chargers and they are looking more dangerous when you think Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen both are expected to be available for their starts.

Gordon has been banged up and I am not sure he is going to be able to have a huge game here considering how well Baltimore have played the run. I also think Gordon will have to share carries in the backfield as the Chargers won't want him running on empty in January so the Ravens could at least force Rivers to try and beat them through the air.

There is no doubt Rivers is playing some confident Football at Quarter Back and the way he rallied his team to beat Kansas City underlined that. However this week he is playing a much better Secondary than the one the Chiefs have and Rivers found himself under siege last week by the Kansas City pass rush and there could be something similar at play in Week 16.

Baltimore are able to get to the Quarter Back and the Chargers Offensive Line are going to have trouble giving Rivers a lot of time to make his plays, although shutting down the veteran completely is asking a lot. What I do think will happen is that Baltimore will be able to control the clock with the Offense and the Defensive unit will be able to keep them in this game and so getting more than a Field Goal worth of points is appealing.

The underdog has gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series. Baltimore have an 18-7-4 record against the spread in their last twenty-nine road games against a team with a winning record at home, while the Chargers are just 2-5 against the spread in home games since moving to Los Angeles.

Both teams have plenty on the line on Saturday, but I will take the points with the road underdog and make a play on the Baltimore Ravens.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Only a miracle play at the end of the Divisional Game against the New England Patriots in Week 14 kept alive the hopes of the Miami Dolphins to make the Play Offs. However they were crushed without much of a fight in Minnesota to drop back to 7-7 and that means the Dolphins are clinging onto their post-season hopes by their fingernails as they look to win out in the final two weeks of the regular season and hope for plenty of help.

With the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers dominating the AFC West it does mean one of those teams would take one of the two AFC Wild Card spots. That has left Miami as one of a number of teams battling out for the final Wild Card spot, but the loss to the Minnesota Vikings means the Dolphins are already at least one game behind a number of other teams which means chances of reaching the Play Offs are slim to say the least.

They are still far better than the disappointing Jacksonville Jaguars who have followed up a run to the AFC Championship Game by producing a 4-10 record. Instead of cutting Blake Bortles at the end of the 2017 season, the Jaguars were fooled by the run to the Championship Game that they had a serviceable Quarter Back and they have found out the hard way in 2018 that Bortles is not good enough for them.

Cody Kessler has not really impressed in relief so the Jaguars look to be a team that is going to be looking for a new Quarter Back in the off-season. The most likely suggestion is they look to bring in a veteran that can help a talented Defensive unit take the team very far into the Play Offs in what is a small window of success open for Jacksonville.

The Jaguars won't worry about trying to get Kessler to produce the kind of game that he has not been able to since taking over as starter of the team from Bortles. Instead the Jaguars will look to have the kind of success many teams have had against the Miami Dolphins and that is by running the ball and then attacking the Secondary with play-action passes once the pass rush has been negated.

Leonard Fournette could be missing for Jacksonville, although I still expect the Jaguars to have some big runs on the ground. Any time Miami can at least make some stops they should have a chance to get to Kessler and that is going to be the key for them.

If the Dolphins can stall a couple of drives, they will feel their own Offensive Line is playing well enough to open some big holes for the Running Backs in this one. Frank Gore has suffered a season ending injury, but Miami showed they can crack some big runs without last week in the defeat in Minnesota and they are facing a Jacksonville Defensive Line that has been gashed in recent games.

It will be music to Ryan Tannehill's ears if Miami can dominate on the ground and ease any pass rush he is going to be facing from the Jaguars. The Offensive Line has not really protected Tannehill as they would like and the Quarter Back has had his fair share of injuries over the last couple of years and he could be a little banged up here which means he will need more support from the running game.

Tannehill has played better at home and Miami as a whole have been strong in front of their own fans which may give them the edge here. Motivation for Jacksonville is hard to determine, but I have a feeling they may be more interested in trying to play spoiler at the Houston Texans in Week 17 than facing Miami in Week 16 even though this is an in-State rivalry.

In this series the favourite has improved to 5-2 against the spread in the last seven between these teams. The Dolphins are also 6-1 against the spread at home this season and I think they can round out their home schedule with another win to just about stay alive in the Play Off race for one more week.


Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: I don't like the New England Patriots, but I absolutely respect them and it has become something of the norm to expect this team to not only make the Play Offs, but have home field advantage in January. Go back a couple of weeks and you would think they are very much on course to do that, but back to back losses to the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers have knocked the Patriots down to 9-5 for the season and they are chasing a Bye through to the Divisional Round.

When you have become so used to seeing a team dominate like the Patriots have tended to do, it is no surprise that people have questions about what is going wrong. This week there have been suggestions that Tom Brady is playing through some kind of injury, while New England had some bad news when Josh Gordon was suspended indefinitely as off-field issues continue to blight his career.

Rob Gronkowski has not played as well as expected and all in all things don't feel great for the New England Patriots.

However I think you can write them off at your peril and the feeling is that they will bounce back and produce a big game against Divisional rival the Buffalo Bills who are 5-9 in what is a rebuilding year. Even though a losing record has long been secured, the Bills are clearly playing with some heart and determination and that has seen them put more wins on the board than losses over their last five games.

Josh Allen may split opinions as to whether he can be a franchise Quarter Back for the Bills but he has been playing well enough. The majority of the positive plays Allen has put together have been with his legs though and Buffalo are going to try and become the latest team who can rip off some huge gains on the ground against New England whose Defensive Line has been suffering.

This is a Bill Belichick Defensive unit though and I think he is going to focus on making sure the rookie, who didn't play against New England earlier in the season, is not able to have the success that has made him comfortable in games. I would expect Belichick has spent the entire week focusing his Defensive play-callers on working out a way to clamp down on the run and make sure Allen has to beat them with his arm.

LeSean McCoy will likely be able to suit up to give Buffalo another running threat, but his biggest impact may be to catch the ball out of the backfield. Josh Allen should be able to make some decent throws in this one, but he could be under pressure from the Patriots pass rush if the run game has been controlled and Allen has also had a tendency to throw a pick too.

In that case the Buffalo Defensive unit have to step up as they have continued to play at a high level for much of the season. This is a team that is strong up front and has a Secondary who thrive thanks to the pressure those players on the Defensive Line get up front.

Tom Brady had some success against them earlier in the season though and the likes of Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead can help spark some of the run game in this one. The latter two could be a big threat coming out of the backfield, while Julian Edelman will look to find the soft spots in the Secondary and step up his play with Josh Gordon sidelined.

New England have dominated the last four games in this series and I think they are going to be able to bounce back from back to back losses and get back on the winning trail. The Patriots have covered in each of the last four games against the Buffalo Bills and they are 5-1 against the spread at home this season while finding a way to dominate their Divisional rivals again.

The Patriots have some stunning home numbers, especially against teams with losing records, and the Buffalo Bills are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen Divisional games.

I know the consecutive losses the Patriots have suffered makes it hard to trust them, but this is the kind of spot in which New England have USUALLY thrived. Since 2001 they have gone 8-3 against the spread when playing of back to back losses and they have won those games by an average of 17 points per game.

It makes it a little more comfortable to back a team to cover this kind of monster spread and I will look for New England to show they are not quite as finished as some have suggested over the last couple of weeks.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: You don't want to lose momentum in Week 15 of the NFL regular season when chasing spots in the Play Offs, but the Dallas Cowboys feel their defeat to the Indianapolis Colts will stand them in good stead. That loss dropped them to 8-6 for the season which means they are a game clear of the Philadelphia Eagles going into Week 16, but two wins over the Eagles means the Cowboys are still firmly in control of earning a Play Off spot for the second season in a row.

A win in Week 16 will do it for the Dallas Cowboys, but they will be feeling intense pressure if they are not able to get the better of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whose season is effectively over. The Buccaneers are a disappointing 5-9 for the season and they are about to make some big changes with likely moves as far as the Head Coach and potentially the Quarter Back position are concerned.

Jameis Winston may essentially be auditioning for his next job in the final two weeks of the season and he is coming off a tough outing against the Baltimore Ravens when the entire Tampa Bay team struggled for Offensive consistency. Everyone knows how strong the Ravens are Defensively, but the Dallas Cowboys will feel they are playing at a very good level and can also shut down what Tampa Bay want to do.

Running the ball against a strong Defensive Line has been very difficult of late and the pressure Dallas can get up front has led to improved numbers from the Secondary too. I would expect the Cowboys may be able to break through this Tampa Bay Offensive Line and force Winston to move around the pocket before trying to hit Mike Evans down the field.

Evans is going to make some big plays as the top Receiver he is, but the Cowboys have been very good Defensively and will believe they can stall enough drives to give the ball back to Dak Prescott and his Offense.

It's hard to know what to feel about Dak Prescott and whether he really is the franchise Quarter Back that the Cowboys think he is. The arrival of Amari Cooper has been a boost for Prescott and the Cowboys, but they may go back to their fundamentals in this one and that is running the ball for much of the afternoon through Ezekiel Elliot.

The Buccaneers Defensive Line has really struggled when it comes to stopping the run and I am not sure how high the motivation will be to get down and dirty in the trenches in this one. There are a couple of banged up players on the Offensive Line for the Cowboys, but I think they will still enjoy getting a push and opening things up for Elliot who should be able to crack some big runs.

That only makes life easier for Prescott who should be able to use play-action and run-option plays to make sure he is able to throw the ball to Cooper. Last week the connection struggled as the Cowboys made numerous mistakes in the Indianapolis half of the field and failed to convert a number of Fourth Down attempts, but I expect a much more focused effort from Dallas this week and I do like them to win this game and by some comfortable margin too.

Dallas have bounced back from blow out losses by going 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following a loss by 14 points or more. The Cowboys are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home and I think they may be facing an opponent who is not completely focused in wanting to dig deep enough to win this game so I do like the home team here.


New York Giants @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: At this point of the season motivation of players has to be considered when spreads are being created for games and I have no doubt that is part of the reason why the Indianapolis Colts are seen as such strong favourites to beat the New York Giants.

The Colts are 8-6 and still very much chasing a place in the Play Offs which begin in a couple of weeks time and they need to win this game and then are potentially locked into a winner takes all game with the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. On the other hand the New York Giants are 5-9 and were officially knocked out of the Play Offs last week when beaten by the Tennessee Titans.

Add in the fact that Odell Beckham Jr is going to be sitting again and the Giants are playing a non-Conference game and the motivation simply may not be there. An even greater factor could be that the Giants are looking past the Colts as they finish off the season hosting the Dallas Cowboys and could potentially have a chance to ruin the season of one of their biggest rivals.

Aside from a really strange performance at the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts have been flying in recent weeks as Andrew Luck has really settled back into the team. No will doubt the talent Luck has at Quarter Back and he has sparked this team, although give a huge amount of credit to the Offensive Line who have been able to give Luck all the time he needs to throw the ball.

Indianapolis have plenty of balance Offensively too and Marlon Mack's performances have cooled down suggestions the Colts will make a play for Le'Veon Bell in Free Agency. Mack was the superior Running Back on the field in Week 15 despite sharing the limelight with Ezekiel Elliot and the Colts should be very comfortable moving the chains however they want to do it in Week 16.

That should especially be the case if the Giants are not playing quite as hard as they could and it means pressure on Eli Manning and the Giants Offense to try and keep up with the Colts. Manning is surely playing his last couple of games for the New York Giants and is looking to bounce back from a performance in which his team failed to score a point, although it is tough without Beckham Jr on the field.

Saquon Barkley has been huge for the Giants and proven his worth as a high Draft Pick, but the Colts have been strong up front and found a way to shut down the run. I am convinced the focus will be on stopping Barkley by any means necessary and making Manning ask more out of the other playmakers on the field and that would be the smart Defensive move with OBJ out of the team.

The Colts Defensive unit have perhaps flown under the radar with fans concentrating on how well Andrew Luck and the Offense have been playing. However this is an Indianapolis Defense which is much improved from last season and have an ability to slow the run and get to the Quarter Back, while the Secondary have been able to make plays against opponents throwing under pressure.

It would not be a big surprise if the Colts create one or two turnovers to really take control of this game and I like them to win and cover. I have to respect the Giants for covering in their last six road games, but the focus could be on finishing up against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17 and trying to play spoiler for them rather than a non-Conference opponent they see once every four years.

The Giants are also 4-10-1 against the spread in their last fifteen games against a team with a winning record at home. Add in how well the Colts have played against teams with losing records and I will look for the home team to cover a big number.


Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets Pick: Aaron Rodgers has declared he is going to finish up the season for the Green Bay Packers in what has been a poor season by the standards set by this team. At 5-8-1 the season is over and Rodgers has been playing through multiple injuries which meant it was suggested Green Bay shut him down for 2018, but Rodgers himself wants to be a leader by taking to the field in the last two weeks of the regular season.

It is all change for the Green Bay Packers in the off-season with some serious decisions to be made. A new Head Coach is coming in and Clay Matthews needs his contract rejigged so there are questions about a team who are desperate to help Rodgers win a second Super Bowl ring which is the minimum they would have expected with the best Quarter Back in the NFL.

With Rodgers declared available, I can't say I am surprised the public are pounding the Packers in Week 16 against the New York Jets who are putting the finishing touches on another losing season. There may be changes in the Jets management roles in the weeks ahead too, but this is a team who have been competitive no matter what the 4-10 record will suggest.

That competitiveness may be the reason the sharps are on the Jets this week with the spread coming down below a key number 3 in a number of places ahead of this game. You can still find the full Field Goal start with the Jets and that is the play in this one as far as I am concerned.

Sam Darnold is playing Quarter Back for the Jets as he looks to take on more experience while growing as the franchise Quarter Back of this team. Darnold has played well at home to be honest and I think he can have a good game against an injury hit Green Bay Secondary that may be playing out the string.

The Quarter Back showed an ability to scramble away from pressure in the loss to the Houston Texans in Week 15 and Darnold should be able to have success finding Robby Anderson down the field when he is given some time. He should be aided by the Jets being able to run the ball against a weakened Green Bay Defensive Line and I think the Jets can give their visitors all they can handle.

I would expect Green Bay to be able to move the chains too as long as they making the right play calls- when you have a Quarter Back like Aaron Rodgers it can be easy to decide to pass way more than you run the ball, but Joe Philbin has to have done some homework and that means giving the ball to Jamaal Williams to run the ball.

Williams takes over from Aaron Jones and played well in the Week 15 defeat to the Chicago Bears and he should have more room for success against this New York Defensive Line. The Green Bay Offensive Line have paved the way for some big runs, but they have not been so effective protecting Rodgers when he drops back to throw. And that is an area where the Jets will feel they can really get after Rodgers who may be a little gimpy from the knee and hamstring issues he has been dealing with.

Rodgers doesn't turn the ball over too often, but I do think the Jets can stall some drives and I like them with the points. The Jets are 9-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog off a home loss and Green Bay have struggled on the road all season both straight up and against the spread.

The underdog are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in the series between these teams and I like the Jets here.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: He hasn't looked right for a few weeks now and the decision has finally been made by the Carolina Panthers that they will not play Cam Newton in Week 16 and he is very unlikely to play in Week 17. It isn't a surprise after the Panthers were beaten at home by the New Orleans Saints in Week 15 which has seen their record slip to 6-8 and with their Play Off hopes in tatters after six straight losses.

It is the kind of losing streak which will have Head Coach Ron Rivera sitting on the hot seat as Black Monday approaches. At one point it looked like the Carolina Panthers would be able to challenge the New Orleans Saints for the best record in the NFC, but instead they will be missing out on the Play Offs and wondering what might have been this season.

The same could be said for the Atlanta Falcons who are 5-9 and arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL along with the Jacksonville Jaguars. There is so much talent on the Falcons roster, but the window for success in the NFL is very small and there has to be some questions as to how 2019 can be a lot better than this season has been.

Julio Jones is banged up and could be missing for the Falcons in Week 16, but they are still favoured to win on the road against an opponent who could be deflated after events in Week 15. Losing a game they should have won to stay alive in the Play Off mix and then seeing the starting Quarter Back shut down will hurt and it is Taylor Heinicke who will be making his first career start at that position.

Without Cam Newton, you have to believe the Falcons are going to look for a way to slow down the run by clamping down on Christian McCaffrey who has had a very strong season for the Panthers. His threat is helped by the running ability of Newton, but I don't think the Falcons will respect Heinicke in the same way and instead will try and force the inexperienced Quarter Back to beat them through the air.

By forcing Heinicke to throw the ball, I do think the Falcons are going to be in a position to stall drives as the Secondary have improved in recent games. They crushed Josh Rosen last week and I don't think Carolina have the playmakers outside of McCaffrey who can really hurt the Falcons consistently so the visitors have every chance of winning this game.

The spread moved a whole six points once Newton was ruled out, although my one doubt about backing Atlanta is how poorly they have played. Matt Ryan and the Offense have not been anything like as good on the road as they have been at home and even then they have struggled in most venues this season.

Losing Jones would be a blow, but I think Atlanta will be able to rip off some big runs through Tevin Coleman in this one as the Panthers energy level may not be where it was against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15. The Defensive players may be focused on the revenge game with the Saints in Week 17 which could prevent New Orleans finishing with the best record in the NFC, and that could mean Atlanta are able to take advantage of this spot.

Matt Ryan has to be aware of the pressure Carolina can get up front, but running the ball should slow down any pass rush and I do like the Falcons here.

Atlanta have matched up well with Carolina in recent meetings as they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these Divisional rivals. Both teams have struggled when playing teams with losing records as they have not been able to cover the spread, but the Falcons look like they could have the energy to find the win in this one against an inexperienced Quarter Back and a Defensive unit that is just off an A++ effort.


Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: If you think the Chicago Bears are going to be satisfied as NFC North Champions behind their 10-4 record you will have to think again. This is a team that believes they can win the Super Bowl and that means finishing out the season hard enough to try and secure a Bye into the Divisional Round of the Play Offs by winning out.

They will have to be careful when they head west to take on the San Francisco 49ers considering how much confidence their hosts must have picked up. This is the third home game in a row for the 49ers and they have won the last two as the underdog so they won't worry about their spot here as they bid to improve their 4-10 record in what has been a disappointing season.

High hopes have long gone with injuries hurting the 49ers, but they remain competitive and wins over Play Off chasing teams Denver and Seattle show how tough they can be at home. There has been some fortune attached to those wins and Nick Mullens and the Offensive unit may need more of that if they are going to be competitive against the Chicago Bears who look to be heating up at just the right time.

The Bears will feel they have enough Offensively to move the chains consistently in this one. As well as San Francisco did in controlling Philip Lindsay when he played for the Broncos here, the Defensive Line has struggled against the run and they are going to get a heavy dose of that from the Chicago Bears who also have a Quarter Back capable of making plays with his legs.

That should give the Chicago Offensive Line time to protect Mitchell Trubisky when he does step back to throw the ball and I think the Bears will be able to score their points.

However, like with every game this season, the key is the Chicago Defensive unit who may be the very best in the NFL. Matt Breida may actually have more room to run the ball than he has in recent games as there has been some problems for the Bears to stop the run on the Defensive Line. In recent games Breida has been a threat but has not exploded for huge gains and the 49ers will need him if they are going to create a third upset at home in a row.

Nick Mullens will need everything Breida can get on the ground because he is likely to be under intense pressure whenever he is in obvious passing downs. The San Francisco Offensive Line is not the best anyway, but now they face a Bears Defensive Line that loves causing havoc in the backfield and I think it will be difficult for Mullens to move the ball through the air barring more funny stuff from the officials like we have seen in the Seattle win last week.

The Bears also create a lot of turnovers so they will feel they can give their Offensive unit more possessions and I like Chicago to keep their chances of receiving a top two Seed by winning this week.

Chicago do have a poor recent record in San Francisco, but this is the best Bears team to visit in a long time. Despite the home covers in each of the past two weeks, San Francisco are just 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two home games and they are 7-17-1 against the spread in their last twenty-five when playing a team with a winning record.

The Bears are now 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games and I will roll with them through one more week at least.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The pressure on the Pittsburgh Steelers has built up, but they have only themselves to blame after blowing games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders. A battling win over the New England Patriots helped their cause in Week 15, but the tie with the Cleveland Browns very early in the season means the Steelers are 8-5-1 and just behind the Baltimore Ravens who are flying towards the Play Offs.

It does mean the Steelers either need to win both of their remaining games or hope to split their final two games and hope the Ravens slip up in Week 17. A team with the Super Bowl aspirations Pittsburgh had back in August will have some major questions to answer if they are failing to make the Play Offs so the Steelers have to find their best in Week 16.

Only the best is expected to be good enough when the Steelers visit the New Orleans Saints who have a 12-2 record and one more win will be enough for the Saints to make sure they hold home field advantage through the Play Offs. The Saints showed they can win in a different way when beating the Carolina Panthers in a low-scoring battle in Week 15, but that was on the road and New Orleans have been considerably better at home.

Much is likely to be on the shoulders of Drew Brees who has not been at his best in this month. While the Saints have two dynamic Running Backs in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been very good at playing the run so their biggest impacts will potentially be as Backs coming out and catching short passes from their Quarter Back.

Drew Brees should still have time to pass the ball even in obvious passing downs because of the performance of his Offensive Line. He is also facing a Pittsburgh Secondary which has holes in it, but Brees has to hope some of the other Receivers step up outside of Michael Thomas who is likely to be followed by Joe Haden.

I do think some will, but New Orleans have some questions to answer about themselves Offensively, although the Saints are also much improved Defensively.

The Steelers will be hoping James Connor is going to be able to play this week, but they showed in the win over New England that the Offensive Line is very capable of paving the way for whoever starts in the backfield. It is likely to be more difficult against the New Orleans Saints whose Defensive Line has played very well in clamping down on the run, but they have just been in a physical game with the Panthers and that may offer Pittsburgh more chances to establish the run.

The Secondary have stepped up in recent games too which will give New Orleans encouragement, but stopping the Pittsburgh Steelers through the air is difficult. JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a huge weapon for the Steelers and he is expected to suit up which makes it difficult to control him and Antonio Brown and I would expect Ben Roethlisberger to have a solid game here.

It makes the points being given to the Steelers that much more appealing.

Pittsburgh are 19-6-2 against the spread in their last twenty-seven games against a team with a winning record at home although it is never easy to oppose the New Orleans Saints at home. The Saints have some incredible numbers, but the Steelers are desperate and I think Big Ben can at least produce a drive to get within this number.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Titans - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens + 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 4 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

NFL Week 16 Picks 2017 (December 23-25)

The final two weeks of the NFL regular season has plenty on the line for teams who are getting ready to take their place in the Play Offs which will kick off in two weeks time.

Nothing is guaranteed for many teams just yet and we saw in Week 15 how quickly the landscape can change for any team if they are not able to keep producing the wins that are required.

It cost the Green Bay Packers in Week 15 and the decision has since been made to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines the rest of the way with their Play Off berth gone. The NFC South could be next in line to see some of their leading contenders go down with big games coming up between all four teams which will determine who can make it through to the Play Offs with at least one Wild Card spot likely going to a team from the NFC South.

Other teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers suffered some major losses in Week 15 which may cost them a place in the Play Offs.

Expect more of the same on Week 16 which is played from Saturday through to Christmas Day.

Onto the NFL Week 16 Picks.


Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Baltimore Ravens know exactly what they need to do if they are going to make the Play Offs and that is to win out and reach 10-6 having failed to do that a season ago from the exact same position. The schedule certainly seems favourable and I do think the Ravens are going to be playing post-season Football next month.

First up for the Ravens is the home game with the Indianapolis Colts who are going to miss out on the Play Offs again. The injury to Andrew Luck has to be a real concern for the organisation having missed as much playing time as he has and the Colts look like a team with a lot of holes to fill in the off-season to recover their once dominant place in the AFC South.

It isn't often that Indianapolis have been out of contention by Week 16 and this looks like being a really tough day for them.

Jacoby Brissett has played as well as could be expected after coming in from the New England Patriots at the start of the regular season especially with very little help around him. That hasn't changed in time for this game and the pressure on Brissett is increased when thinking of how well the Baltimore Defensive unit have been able to play even through the injuries they have sustained in the Secondary.

It can't be expected that Indianapolis will have a lot of success in this one as the team have not scored more than 17 points in any of their last five games. Despite the numbers that the Baltimore Secondary have allowed since Jimmy Smith went down for the season, Brissett has not been given the time to find Receivers downfield and is unlikely to have a lot of time in this one either.

Brissett is playing behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect him and give the Quarter Back time to make plays and that may be the case again this week. With little likelihood of Frank Gore helping the Colts by getting the run established, it will be down to Brissett to make the big throws and it feels like a long shot against this Baltimore Defense who are still able to make big plays.

The Colts also seem to be coming up against an improving Baltimore Offense which has finally shown some life after a struggle for much of the season. Joe Flacco is beginning to connect with some of the deep throws that propels this Ravens team and he has been well backed up by Alex Collins giving the run game a burst.

Baltimore should be able to move the chains with a little more consistency than the Indianapolis Colts with the team able to play out of third and manageable spots a little more often than their visitors. With Flacco in decent form and the Colts perhaps losing some of their motivation as they play out the season, I do think the Baltimore Ravens can record what would be a big cover on Saturday.

Indianapolis are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight on the road and I like Baltimore to make the big plays on both sides of the ball which allows them to pull clear behind a strong Defensive effort.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The air has been taken out of this game in Week 15 when the Green Bay Packers lost to the Carolina Panthers and saw their Play Off hopes go up in smoke. The fans will still want to see their team perform in the final home game of the season and try and spoil the Minnesota Vikings season, but it is a big ask for the Packers who are down some key performers.

Aaron Rodgers being moved to the IR was no surprise once the Packers were eliminated from the Play Offs and that means Green Bay go back to Brett Hundley at Quarter Back. Hundley had a tough time in his first appearance of the season when filling in for Rodgers who broke his collarbone against the Minnesota Vikings, and his challenges won't have lessened with the Vikings still performing as one of the best Defensive units in the NFL.

The problem for Hundley is that Green Bay are also going to be without Davante Adams who has proven to be his favourite Receiving target in his time at Quarter Back for the Packers. It only increases the challenges for Hundley to try and move the chains through the air against a tough Minnesota Secondary who can get a lot of pressure up front and are likely to be chasing the Quarter Back whenever the Green Bay Packers get into third and long situations.

Green Bay could have success if Hundley tucks the ball in and tries to run for First Downs or by handing the ball off to whoever starts at Running Back. The Vikings have not been as stout against the run as they would have liked in recent games, although I do think that number is skewed by their game with the Carolina Panthers and I would expect Minnesota's Defensive unit to make the big plays to set the team up in a strong position.

I am expecting the Vikings to win this game behind that Defense, but the cover of a big number is a little more awkward. However I do think Minnesota have done enough Offensively to think they can get the better of a Green Bay team who are going to find it tough to pick themselves up from the disappointment of knowing their season ended in Week 15.

This is also a Green Bay team who are suffering some real problems in the Defensive unit with injuries and lack of form from players in the entire back seven. They can still be tough up front, but Minnesota have a couple of capable Running Backs and the ability to have those players leak out and catch balls to take a number of yards down the field which should keep the Offense in third and manageable spots.

Case Keenum is having a career year at Quarter Back and has talented Receivers to expose the problems Green Bay are having in the Secondary too so I do think the Vikings move the chains with some consistency. Recently the Offensive Line has had some troubles so perhaps the Packers can get to Keenum and maybe force a couple of errant throws, but I expect the Vikings to win the field position battle for the most part and I like their chance to not only win, but win big.

I feel better knowing Brett Hundley won one out of four home games that he has started for the Packers and the three losses have come by 9, 13, and 23 points with some Offensive issues. While some players would want to play spoiler for the Vikings, who are still chasing the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, the majority will be feeling what this could have been if Rodgers had not been injured and I think that may be the overwhelming emotion in the whole Stadium.

A steady performance from the Vikings should then be enough to win this game by double digits and see Minnesota build the momentum for the Play Offs.


Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The NFC South is a very competitive Division going down to the final two weeks of the regular season and in Week 16 the 10-4 New Orleans Saints host the 9-5 Atlanta Falcons. It has only been a couple of weeks since these teams met in Atlanta in a game that was won by the Falcons, but the New Orleans Saints have to believe they can earn a measure of revenge this time around.

One of the key moments of the first meeting between these teams was the early hit that knocked out Alvin Kamara. It just underlined how important Kamara has already become for the New Orleans Saints with his ability to run the ball but also the featured player Drew Brees looks to when it comes to a safety blanket for the Saints.

Kamara didn't miss a single game after being knocked out of the game at Atlanta and was looking sharp in the win over the New York Jets in Week 15. The Saints will still want to clean up some of their play with stupid turnovers and dropped passes taking a few points off the board in that victory, especially as the Falcons are one of the better teams out there.

Atlanta have shown some power at the Defensive Line as they have been able to slow down the run in recent games including a big effort in the first game with the Saints. Once again I would suggest a healthy Kamara would have made a big difference along with Mark Ingram in that game and I do think the Saints will have more success in this one.

They can also use short passes to Kamara and get the Running Back out into space from where he can make plenty of yards after the catch. That will ease any pass rush and also open things up for Drew Brees against an Atlanta Secondary that have some playmakers, but also showed their vulnerabilities in the Monday Night game with Tampa Bay in Week 15.

With the Saints moving the ball more successfully than they did in the first game with Atlanta, the pressure will be on Matt Ryan and company to try and fight fire with fire. They do have an explosive running game which should at least give the Falcons a chance to move the chains and it is important for the Falcons to do that against one of the more under-rated Defensive units in the NFL.

Kenny Vaccaro being moved onto the IR is a big blow for the Saints, but this is a Secondary who have been the most improved Secondaries in the NFL this season. They should be able to find a way to clamp down on the Receiving threats Atlanta bring to the field, while I also think Ryan is not playing as well at Quarter Back as he would have liked.

It has meant settling for Field Goal attempts rather than Touchdowns and I think that is going to be a problem for the Falcons in Week 16. The other issue that almost cost the Falcons the win in the first game with the New Orleans Saints were the Interceptions thrown by Ryan and he is going to have to be a lot better with a healthier looking Secondary even with the absence of Vaccaro.

I do like the Saints for some revenge over the Falcons and the win would put them pretty much into the Play Offs. They would likely have won in Atlanta if not for the Alvin Kamara injury and I think the Running Back has a big game in revenge for the hit that knocked him out of that game two weeks ago.

New Orleans are also playing the better Football on both sides of the ball and I don't think they make the same mistakes that almost certainly made things a lot tighter than they needed to be in Week 15 against the New York Jets. On the other hand Matt Ryan has not played to the level he produced in 2016 and I think Drew Brees outplays him and helps the Saints win this by around a Touchdown.

The Saints also have an incredible 22-4 record against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record on the road and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Divisional games. I will back the Saints to win in Week 16 to move one step closer to securing the NFC South.


Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Sometimes you have to admit when you are wrong and I have to say I jumped off the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon a little early. I saw a team who had no momentum and a poor run and I could not see how they could turn things around, but the Chiefs have won back to back games in impressive fashion which means the Chiefs may be the favourites to win the AFC West.

The win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week was a big one for the Chiefs who dominated on both sides of the ball and that means winning out will be enough for Kansas City to take the Division. In fact one more win will be enough for the Chiefs who are destined to finish with the Number 4 Seed in the AFC which means hosting a Wild Card game in a couple of weeks time.

Hosting the Miami Dolphins, who are out of Play Off contention after another non-show in a loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, looks to be the chance for the Chiefs to keep the wins coming.

With Kareem Hunt looking like he has broken through the rookie wall, the Chiefs have been running the ball very effectively again, although that will be tested by a stout Miami Defensive Line. That Line is still playing hard, but there is a reason to think they could be waiting for the revenge game against the Bills next week where Miami can spoil a Divisional rivals season.

Even if the Defensive Line does show up to play tough, Kansas City know they can use Hunt as a Receiver coming out of the backfield where he can make players miss in the open field. Alex Smith will likely use Hunt as a check down option and perhaps even employ a few screens just to open up the running game by getting Hunt out into space.

Smith has to be given a lot of credit for the way the Kansas City Chiefs have been playing as he has been producing some big time throws at Quarter Back. The deep ball has returned to the Offense, while Smith continues to look after the ball with the kind of success that will see teams looking to bring him in if he does leave Kansas City in the off-season as most are expecting.

Battling a tough Miami Defensive unit will see some drives stall, but I think Smith can have a solid outing against them by mixing in the short passes with a few deep balls to open things up. I certainly think the Chiefs have every chance of moving the ball with some consistency and they will also feel they can win the field position battle on the other side of the ball.

It won't go all Kansas City's way, especially when the game is close as I do think Kenyan Drake has offered Miami the kind of running game that Jay Ajayi failed to do before being traded to Philadelphia. Drake has hit the holes where they are and his hard running has sparked the Dolphins, although the challenge will come against the Chiefs Defensive Line who have picked up their play significantly in recent games.

The main issue is always going to be which Jay Cutler decides to come and play in Week 16- he is making all the right noises about wanting to play in 2018, but Cutler could easily go back to the broadcast booth after Week 17 and so it is hard to see how his motivation levels are gong to be for this game.

Cutler had a great game against the New England Patriots two weeks ago, but last week he was pretty terrible against the Buffalo Bills to end the Miami lingering Play Off hopes. He will be under pressure from the Kansas City pass rush if the Dolphins are not able to move the chains on the ground, while Cutler has to be aware of the way the Chiefs have been able to turn the ball over of late.

That could be the reason Kansas City are able to cover a big spread as they earn the extra possessions to get this done. The number does offer Cutler the chance for a backdoor cover which is a concern, but the Chiefs have blown out their last couple of opponents who are both superior to Miami and I think they are able to do the same here.

Kansas City are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home and Miami have struggled against the better teams they have played outside of that win over New England. I will look for the Chiefs to force a couple of turnovers which helps them move clear of the Dolphins in a big home win which sees Kansas City book their Play Off spot.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The Carolina Panthers ended the Green Bay Packers hopes of making the Play Offs, but they have to be careful that their own are not left in a precarious position. Their destiny is clearly in their own hands as the Panthers will make the Play Offs by winning out, and could also potentially win the NFC South by doing that, but losing their remaining two games would likely leave Carolina on the outside looking in.

Two Divisional games are a tough way to conclude the season, although they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have underachieved significantly in 2017. Some had the Buccaneers down as the favourites to win the NFC South Division so their 4-10 record is likely going to lead to some significant changes in the off-season.

The Buccaneers at least played hard in a narrow loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football and they still have a big part to play in who gets to the Play Offs with games against Carolina and New Orleans to finish the season. Tampa Bay may feel they should have knocked off the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, but I don't think they will spend too much time feeling sorry for themselves knowing they have nothing to lose.

Injuries have really hurt Tampa Bay all season, but at least Jameis Winston will get a chance to finish the season at Quarter Back. There is still plenty of believers who think the Buccaneers can win with Winston at Quarter Back, but the whole team will need better luck with health and also perhaps some better Coaching to fulfil the potential they have.

Doug Martin could be missing for a second week in a row having been suspended by the team ahead of the Week 15 game with the Falcons. Peyton Barber took his chance at Running Back with a good performance and I think he has every chance of some strong gains on the ground against the Panthers Defensive Line which has had a few issues stopping the run.

That would be huge for the Buccaneers and Winston who had a good showing last week and was only let down by a couple of key mistakes. One was a fumble inside the red zone while the Buccaneers would have tied the game with a Field Goal at the end which was missed. Winston will be glad of the run support from Barber to ease the pressure the Panthers will bring up front against this poor Offensive Line, while the absence of Thomas Davis does mean there should be more passing lanes for the Quarter Back to exploit.

It does feel like a game in which Tampa Bay can move the chains and have success in scoring points against the Panthers, but I also think Cam Newton is playing at an extremely high level and is likely going to lead his team to a win. Newton might not have many Receiving weapons these days, but Greg Olsen is back and last week he showed how well he is playing by out-battling Aaron Rodgers.

Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey should all have success running the ball against the Buccaneers who have struggled up front all season. That should help the Panthers control the clock and keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots, while also meaning Newton is able to find some big passing lanes to move the chains through the air too.

I do think the Panthers win this game and likely do it fairly comfortably, but Tampa Bay have every chance to earn a backdoor cover in this one with the way they have been playing. The way Carolina will control the clock on the ground might mean the number in the spread is a little too big to cover and the game with the Falcons might also be distracting if the Panthers move into a two score lead which allows the Buccaneers a way back in to cover.

Tampa Bay have enough Offensively to score enough points to keep this close and I will take the points on offer here.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets Pick: The Week 15 game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers felt like a Division decider between those two teams. It was the Chiefs who came out on top, and that has left the Chargers in a desperate position to try and make it two teams from Los Angeles playing Play Off Football in January.

The only way it works for the Chargers is by winning out and hoping the likes of the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills collapse. They will likely need two of those teams to lose both games they have remaining, but that is a possibility and the Chargers have to take care of business of their own.

Playing back to back road games is tough for any team especially when you think the Chargers have to play on the East Coast in an early kick off. That has to be the biggest factor going against the Chargers in this game at the New York Jets who have overachieved this season but who are now dealing with the injury bug.

Josh McCown's injury at Quarter Back really hurts the Jets and that means Bryce Petty is back behind Center for a second game in a row. One of the problems for Petty is the inconsistent performances from the Running Backs and they may not be able to take as much advantage of Los Angeles' struggles up front with that in mind.

It wouldn't be a surprise if the Chargers also make more of an effort to stop the Jets running the ball and making sure they force Petty to beat them through the air. If they can put the Jets in third and long spots, the Chargers pass rush and strong Secondary play could give Petty plenty of problems and lead to drives stalling or, in a worse case scenario, turnovers and a loss of field position.

The key to this game as far as I am concerned is how quickly the Chargers can bounce back from what was a really poor performance in the loss at Kansas City. Philip Rivers had been playing at a high level prior to that loss and he does have the chance to get the Chargers back on track and at least have a shot to make the Play Offs in Week 17.

Rivers should be supported by Melvin Gordon who will be running against a Jets Defensive Line dealing with injuries and expected to be shorthanded. The Defensive Line has been the strength of the Jets, but you can see the impact injuries have had up front and the Chargers should be able to move into third and manageable spots from where Rivers can take over through the air.

The Quarter Back has produced some nice numbers in recent weeks and is throwing into a Secondary who do give up some big yards. Rivers has to make sure he looks after the ball after seeing the Jets give Drew Brees some issues last week, but his Receivers can help by securing the football and I do think Los Angeles can move the chains with success throughout the afternoon.

Rivers should be throwing from a clean pocket and he has some big Receiving weapons here even though Hunter Henry is out for the rest of the season. I do like the Chargers to cover here and improve their 14-6-1 record against the spread in their last twenty-one road games.

All respect to the Jets who have played well as the home team against the spread, but I think the Chargers will prove a little too good on both sides of the ball and win this one by double digits.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: So the Jacksonville Jaguars are almost certainly going to be playing Play Off Football this season and still have an outside shot at winning a First Round bye. They need to win out and hope the Pittsburgh Steelers drop both remaining games, but ultimately this has been a season of success with the Jaguars almost certainly going to finish with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC.

That will be wrapped up this week if they can win at the suddenly live San Francisco 49ers who knocked off the Jaguars Divisional rivals Tennessee at home in Week 15. Jimmy Garoppolo has come in as the starting Quarter Back for the 49ers and I really do think they have found their franchise passer who has helped San Francisco win all three starts since he took over from CJ Beathard.

Wins over Chicago, Houston and Tennessee are decent enough, but this is the biggest test Garoppolo and the 49ers have faced since he took over as starting Quarter Back. The Jacksonville Defensive unit is right up there with the very best in the NFL and Garoppolo can't afford any errant throws in this one.

To be fair to Goroppolo, the problems are that there isn't a lot of Receiving talent for him at San Francisco and he is making the best use of what he has got. There is a hope he can hand the ball off to Carlos Hyde to make some plays on the ground, but the San Francisco Offensive Line has had problems both in run blocking and pass protection and so I think the majority of work will have to be done by Garoppolo.

He will be under pressure at times and that is where he has to think like his mentor Tom Brady and make sure he is not pushing the ball into difficult positions. The Jaguars will be a tough Secondary to deal with considering the turnovers they are able to create, while Garoppolo has to make sure he looks after the ball if he is being taken to the ground by the Defensive Line.

I do think Garoppolo has shown the talent to think he can have some success in this one, but he is facing a Quarter Back in Blake Bortles who is doing his best to ram his critics words back down their throats. Many believe the Jaguars are 10-4 despite Bortles rather than him being a key piece of the team, and that won't have changed despite three top games from the Quarter Back.

Bortles is going to be at his very best in this one too because he is facing a San Francisco Defensive unit that are far greater than the sum of their parts. The key for the Jaguars is to not turn the ball over and Bortles has been looking after the ball, but the pressure will be on the Quarter Back with the San Francisco Defensive Line finding a way to shut down the run.

That has also helped the Secondary who have made some good plays in recent games, although facing Mitchell Trubisky, Tom Savage and a hurt Marcus Mariota has helped. Bortles has been playing better than those three Quarter Backs and could have Allen Hurns back in one of the Receiving positions, but I am also not convinced that Bortles can continue playing at the level he has been.

It all adds up to the points looking very favourable here for the home underdog. I love how San Francisco have played with a competent Quarter Back at the helm and they are doing enough Defensively to keep this close. The key will be how much Jimmy Garoppolo can look after the ball against a team who have turned over the ball on a regular basis, but I think he is playing well enough to do that and I like the 49ers with the points.

The Jaguars will be focused with a chance still there for home field advantage, but they could be looking ahead to the Tennessee game and earning revenge over a Divisional rival who beat Jacksonville earlier this season. With the improved performances from the 49ers, the home underdog can bark in this one.


Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Two 8-6 teams meet in Week 16 with their futures very clear- both the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks need to win out and hope for the dominoes to fall their way if they are going to make it back to the Play Offs.

It makes the big game in Arlington that much more important with everything on the line and the Dallas Cowboys have the benefit of getting a fresh Ezekiel Elliot back in the line up. They have not played badly without him, but Elliot is a special runner and he opens everything up on the Offensive side of the ball.

A few months ago that may not have mattered against a tough Seattle Defensive unit, but the 'Legion of Boom' has been decimated by injury. Only Earl Thomas can really say he is playing with any health and we saw how Bobby Wagner struggled with his injury last week as Todd Gurley trampled all over the Seahawks in a stunning loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

It might be difficult for Elliot to pick up from where Gurley left off simply because of the lack of Football he has played, but the Running Back looks in fantastic shape. The Dallas Offensive Line is playing as well as they have at any point this season, although I am concerned about the Tyron Smith injury which may keep him out, and I do think they can pave the way for some big runs from Elliot and his back ups.

Things are helped by the injuries to the Linebackers of the Seahawks and that has seen the Defensive Line worn down and giving up some big plays. With Elliot likely making some big gains on the ground, things should open up for Dak Prescott who is going to employ bootleg and play-action to attack a Secondary that has missed their top talent for a few weeks now.

Writing off Russell Wilson is tough though with the Quarter Back showing he is capable of just 'winning' when you don't think it is possible. Wilson is due a bounce back after a tough outing against the Rams, but it might be a tough ask for the competitor when the Defensive unit are not helping out.

It means Seattle have to score almost every time they have the ball and that is difficult when the Offensive Line doesn't offer much protection and the running game just hasn't been there. This Dallas Defensive Line have played at a high level of late and they will feel they can get the better of the Seattle Offensive Line and at least force Wilson to scramble and make the plays in adverse situations.

Wilson has shown he can do that, but the Cowboys Secondary have stood up with a pair of young Corner Backs showing signs they could be a quality duo for years to come. The concentration will be tested as Wilson extends plays, but the Cowboys have shown they can turn the ball over too and I do like their chances to keep their Play Off hopes alive through to Week 17.

The Seahawks have shown they are a team that does bounce back from a loss in the right manner, but the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball are hard to ignore. You have to think they play hard after the embarrassing way they were blown away by Los Angeles Rams last week, but I think Elliot takes the headlines on his return and he can help the Cowboys win and cover in this Week 16 game.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 10 Points @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers + 4 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)