NFL Week 15 Picks 2024 (Thursday 12th December-Monday 16th December)

There may only be four regular season weeks left in the 2024 NFL campaign, but there is little doubt that the biggest news story leading into the latest round of games actually involves College Football.

The Playoff Bracket was set, but even that has been overshadowed by the very surprising decision made by Bill Belichick to become the new Head Coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Most anticipated that Belichick would join a NFL team in the off-season as he looks to pass Don Shula in the list for all-time wins, but apparently there has not been enough interest in the former New England Head Coach to persuade Belichick to wait for offers and ignore the approach from North Carolina.

It is a coup for the Tar Heels and the rumour is that Bill Belichick has only accepted this job with the succession plan in place that would see son Steve take over as Head Coach when his father steps down. The younger Belichick is expected to leave the Washington Huskies and join up with Bill in what has to be one of the most surprising moves made by a College Football school in recent times.

There is no doubting that it is a huge boost for the Tar Heels, who have underachieved and who are looking to join the elite schools in becoming a regular that plays in the College Football Playoff, especially with the new expanded format set to only get wider in the years ahead. And some are still suggesting that there will be some break in the contract that allows Belichick to think again about returning to the professional ranks at the end of the 2025 season.

A lot of the talking heads will place their own opinion on the record during Week 15 of the regular season, but the players are only focusing on a strong end to the season and the chance to play for a Championship.

Some things did clear up after Week 14- the Kansas City Chiefs look like they have a clear edge to the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, while the NFC North might be down to a two-way battle for the Divisional Championship after the Lions edged past the Green Bay Packers.

The margin for error has certainly lessened a bit more with four games left and there are some big games on slate in Week 15 which is going to have an impact on both Conference Playoff pictures.

After a really strong start to the season for the NFL Picks, the fine margins have just turned and it was another tough week for the selections made.

In another week we could have easily finished 4-2, but it was a 2-4 record when all was said and done and that has just extended the poor run a little too long for my liking.

Week 15 offers another chance to bounce back with the selections kicking off on Thursday Night Football with a big NFC West Divisional battle.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Four weeks remain in the regular season and the tightest Division in the NFL will kick things off on Thursday Night Football in Week 15.

All four teams in the NFC West can still see a pathway through to the Playoffs by winning the Division, although time is a factor now. It does also mean that the Divisional games left on the schedule are hugely important for all four teams and you would say exceptionally so for the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) who are propping up the Division and who have a 1-3 record against fellow NFC West rivals.

That means tie-breakers are another factor that could come into play against the 49ers, a team that reached the Super Bowl several months ago and were considered the team to beat in the NFC in some quarters. Injury has made it very difficult for San Francisco, but the blowout win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday has snapped a three game losing run and this is a team that still believes, despite the adversity faced.

Next up is game against the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) who are a game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, but who have won two in a row including the back and forth with the Buffalo Bills. The Rams also hold a road victory over the Seahawks and look to have plenty of momentum in their bid to return to the Playoffs, despite playing with some inconsistency for much of the season.

Matthew Stafford's experience at Quarter Back has been hugely important for the Rams and helped them come through games even playing with third or fourth string Receiving options. Going into Week 15, Stafford will be very comfortable with the top names back and there could be another boost for the Offensive unit if Tyler Higbee is activated having recovered from a serious knee injury that has kept him out all year.

The Rams make the relatively short journey on a short week, but there will be confidence coursing through the team after the way they held off the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. There was a stubbornness to persist with Kyren Williams on the ground and the Running Back did have a couple of Touchdowns while working up to 87 yards, although it took 29 carries to reach that mark.

Once again the game plan has to be to attack the 49ers on the ground and there have been one or two holes up front that has prevented the Defensive Line from clamping down on the run nearly as well as they would have liked. Running the ball is key to the while Offensive plan that the Rams have so they will look for Williams to continue to pound the rock and see if that leaves their talented Receivers to find spaces to break into out of the play-action.

An experienced Super Bowl winning Quarter Back is obviously going to help, but Cooper Kuup continues to make things easier for Matthew Stafford. He also has an improving Puka Nacua fresh off a day in which he caught 162 passing yards, and the potential return of Tyler Higbee will be a huge boost too.

However, they will be throwing against a 49ers Secondary that can make plays as long as they are able to get some pressure up front from the pass rush. Nick Bosa looks set to miss out on the short week, which will impact that pressure, but the 49ers may still feel they can rush Matthew Stafford and try and stall drives.

Injuries to the likes of Bosa have impacted the Defensive unit, but it is the other side of the ball where San Francisco have really suffered and look to continue to suffer. Already down to a third string Running Back, Kyle Shanahan is only hopeful that Isaac Guerendo is able to go after seeing both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason ruled out for the season.

Running the ball has proven to be a very effective way of attacking the Los Angeles Rams, but being down to a potential fourth string Running Back is one probelm. Arguably a bigger one for the 49ers is the continued absence of Trent Williams on the Offensive Line, a player that has paved the way for the run, and it has just made things a little tougher all around for the 49ers.

Patrick Taylor Jr would be next up for San Francisco at Running Back and had decent numbers in limited appearances for the Green Bay Packers before signing with the 49ers. He did have a Touchdown last week and the 49ers will believe the system allows them to plug in a Running Back that can exploit some of the weaknesses on the Rams Defensive Line.

It certainly helps with Brock Purdy back at Quarter Back and he is likely going to have a bit of time to make his plays down the field with the limited pass rush pressure the Rams have produced in recent games. There are key players out in the Receiving department too, but Purdy has decent chemistry with those that are going to suit up and he can help the 49ers keep the chains moving.

Los Angeles somehow won the first meeting between the Divisional rivals and they have won two in a row overall against San Francisco.

However, you do have to wonder how much intensity they can bring after putting a huge emotional effort into beating the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Week 14. They are looking healthier at a good time, but San Francisco are desperate and the win over Chicago has just reminded the team what they can still achieve.

It could be a close, competitive game, but the feeling is that the 49ers will find a way to establish the more effective running game and ultimately Brock Purdy makes a play or two more than Matthew Stafford to help the home team pick up a very important win to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: They return from the Bye Week in a really strong position in the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (8-5) would love to wrap up the Division as soon as possible.

They do hold the tie-breaker over their nearest challengers, the Indianapolis Colts, but the Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens next with both on relative short weeks and the team will be keen to enter those contests with some momentum.

It is only the second year with DeMeco Ryans as Head Coach and CJ Stroud at Quarter Back, but expectations have been raised by reaching the Divisional Round of the Playoffs last season. 2024 has been tough in terms of consistency with injuries perhaps contributing to the feeling of underachievement, but the Texans are pretty much where they would want to be with the Division close to being secured, which would mean at least one home Playoff game coming up.

They have been hit with a couple of key injuries, but the Texans should be rested and ready to go with the run towards the Super Bowl beginning in Week 15.

Next up is a home game with the Miami Dolphins (6-7) who barely kept their own post-season hopes alive in Week 14 with an Overtime win over AFC East rivals New York Jets. Even then, it is going to likely need the Dolphins to win out and hope one of the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers or Baltimore Ravens slip up in their remaining four games with the Dolphins still two games out of the Wild Card spots.

It is a big ask, but the team and the Head Coach have spoken about focusing only on this Week 15 game with the Dolphins feeling in Playoff mode already. The 1-3 run without Tua Tagovailoa looks like being fatal to their hopes of making the Playoffs and there will be some big decisions that need to be made in the off-season with plenty of Miami fans feeling the window to win a Super Bowl may already be closed for the current roster.

Tua Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to the Touchdown drive to beat the Jets in Overtime last week, and the feeling is that the pressure will be on his shoulders again. In recent weeks the Miami Offensive Line have simply not been able to help establish the run as effectively as they would have hoped and they are not expected to get a lot of change out of this Texans Defensive Line.

Quick passes have been used in lieu of a traditional running game and that has helped Miami, while Tua Tagovailoa may feel there are holes in this Houston Secondary that can be exploited. Those may look a bit bigger after news that the Texans have lost Jalen Pitre for the remainder of the season, but much is going to depend on how much time the Dolphins Offensive Line can give Tagovailoa when he steps back to throw.

If in obvious passing situations, the Houston pass rush has the potential to disrupt drives as long as they can come up and tackle efficiently when the Miami Quarter Back decides to use quick passes to negate that rush.

Miami will feel they can drive the ball up and down the field, but the Houston pass rush might be key if the team are not able to run the ball and become one-dimensional in their play-calling.

That should not be an issue for the Texans who have found a decent balance on the Offensive side of the ball, even if CJ Stroud has perhaps not been as strong as his Quarter Back year. He has not been helped with Nico Collins missing time, but the top Wide Receiver is back for Houston and Joe Mixon has shown there is plenty left in the tank at Running Back.

Unlike Miami, Houston are going to be confident in being able to hand the ball to Mixon and have him keep the team in third and manageable spots, which also means the play-action becomes a real advantage for the Texans.

This should just offer CJ Stroud the time to attack a Miami Secondary that made Aaron Rodgers look more like the Green Bay version of the Quarter Back rather than the one that has been playing for the Jets this season. With Collins and Tank Dell around, the Texans may just be able to sustain drives that much easier than the Miami Dolphins and it may end up giving the home team the edge.

There is a desperation about the Dolphins that can inspire, but it has long been said that 'needing' to win games is not exactly a glowing recommendation about strength of the team involved. Coming out of a Bye Week, the Houston Texans should be healthy and ready to compete and they may just have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball that forces Miami into positions where they have to throw.

This is where the Houston pass rush could come into their own and they can win this game and just move a step closer to locking down the Number 4 Seed in the AFC.

Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints Pick: They return from a late Bye Week and the Washington Commanders (8-5) remain in a very strong position to earn a Wild Card spot into the Playoffs.

Winning the NFC East looks a long shot with four weeks left of the regular season and it would need Washington to win out and hope the Philadelphia Eagles slip up. The top two teams in the Division meet in Week 16, but the Commanders have to be focused on putting some momentum behind themselves rather than any real belief in winning the Division from their current position.

The Commanders could have Marshon Lattimore suiting up for the first time since his trade from the New Orleans Saints (5-8) and they are also facing a team that has lost their starting Quarter Back again. A decision has been made to give Jake Haener his first start for the Saints, and three wins in four have not really been enough to get back into the Wild Card mix.

In saying that, New Orleans are only 2 games out of the lead in the NFC South and so there is still some hope for the Saints.

They will need a couple of upsets if they are going to surprise and win the Division and that has to begin in Week 15 against the Washington Commanders.

An inexperienced Quarter Back can be potentially problematic, but the Saints have to lean on the Offensive Line and hope they can churn out the yards on the ground. Alvin Kamara is going to be the key to their hopes, especially as a safety blanket for Jake Haener in the passing game too, but the absence of Taysom Hill is another blow for this team.

Stopping the run has been an issue for the Commanders all season and they will need to strengthen up if they are going to have a deep Playoff run. However, in this game they may not have the same respect for the passing game as they would if Derek Carr was behind Center, and creeping up to stop the run and leave the young Quarter Back in third and long has to be game plan.

Jake Haener should be well protected, which will help, but you have to believe there will be some inconsistency in the passing game with the inexperience there.

The Commanders are not exactly bringing out a Quarter Back with a host of experiences at the NFL level, but Jayden Daniels came into the League with plenty of expectations and he has largely met those.

It certainly helps playing with this Washington Offensive Line that have helped open up some big running lanes for Brian Robinson Jr. They also know that Daniels is capable of picking up chunks of yards with his legs and the recent problems the Saints have had in stopping the run may be shown up.

Jayden Daniels will be under a bit more pressure when he steps back to throw, but establishing the run should make things a bit more comfortable. The Quarter Back will also be throwing into a New Orleans Secondary that have given up some significant yards through the air in recent games and it should mean a balanced approach to the Offensive side of the ball.

This should be the key to the game and Washington should be ready to compete after the Bye Week following a crushing win over the Tennessee Titans.

It is a big spread, but the Commanders might be able to rattle the New Orleans Quarter Back into a couple of mistakes and that can see them pull clear. There is a big game on deck for the Commanders, but the focus should still be on this one as they look to keep in touch with the Philadelphia Eagles before facing them in Week 16 and that should see the road team come through with a double digit win.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Two of the most disappointing teams in the AFC meet in Week 15 of the 2024 season and with elimination already confirmed.

The New York Jets (3-10) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) will have big decisions to make in the off-season, although the two teams did play hard in Week 14 and that will offer the fans some encouragement.

Some, but ultimately very little encouragement in a disappointing year.

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets have lost four in a row, but there is no suggestion that the Quarter Back will be shut down for the season. His longer-term plans are a bit more uncertain with many reports suggesting that Rodgers does not want to retire, but also does not want to continue playing for the Jets, but there were some positive signs in the defeat to the Miami Dolphins.

Facing a struggling Jacksonville team will help and the Jets should be able to get something going on the ground, even if Breece Hall is not able to suit up. While the Offensive Line has had problems in pass protection, the Jets are not going to be facing up to the fiercest of pass rushes from the Jaguars and it should give the road team a chance to sustain drives.

The Jets fans have not really had the spark at Quarter Back that they would have hoped when Aaron Rodgers returned, but he had a decent showing against the Dolphins. There is every chance that Rodgers can exploit the issues the Jaguars have had in the Secondary and that gives the road team an edge.

New York will have their first choice Quarter Back on the field, but the Jacksonville Jaguars will have to go with Mac Jones ahead of Trevor Lawrence again. The latter is out for the season, and it has been tough work Offensively without their starter.

It all begins on the Offensive Line and the issues that the Jaguars have had in trying to establish the run, something that will be very challenging against this Jets Defensive Line. This has forced Mac Jones into trying to make plays from third and long, which has been a big ask, and it has meant inconsistent Offensive play.

One of the big disappointments for the Jets has been the play of the Secondary so there may be opportunities for Mac Jones to hit some of his Receivers down the field. However, it should be noted the inconsistency displayed by the backup Quarter Back and Interceptions have been a real trouble for him, which could just give the Jets another edge.

Backing bad teams to win games is never much fun, but the Jaguars look weaker than the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers can out-duel Mac Jones to lead his team to a rare win.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Four losses in five games have likely ended any real hopes of working their way into the Playoffs, but the Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) kept faint dreams alive with the late win at the Dallas Cowboys.

They have to win out and hope for a lot of help from above them, but time is running out rapidly.

Next up is another road game on a short week, but the Bengals are facing a Tennessee Titans (3-10) team that have lost two in a row and who many not be massively focused on this game. That is down to the fact they finish the season with three straight Divisional games and playing spoilers for their rivals might be more important than putting in the effort needed to beat the Bengals.

The Titans will be given a boost by facing this Cincinnati Defensive unit that have struggled to make stops all season. It should allow Tennessee to establish the run and just ease the pressure on Will Levis at Quarter Back by keeping him in third and manageable spots on the field.

The jury remains out when it comes to making a verdict about Will Levis and his long-term prospects of being a franchise Quarter Back for the Titans. Will Levis will definitely appreciate the massive holes that the Bengals have continued to display in the Secondary, although the Quarter Back is expected to be under some duress at times when he steps back to throw and that could be the key to stalling some of the drives.

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Offensive unit have not had too many issues when it comes to their performance level on this side of the ball and they should be able to keep things going against this Titans team. In recent weeks the Titans Defensive Line have just allowed teams to get something going on the ground and that can only aid the Bengals with Chase Brown hitting the Line hard and making gains on the ground.

He is also an effective weapon coming out of the backfield, while the Wide Receivers continue to shine  in the system.

The Quarter Back has not always been given a lot of time in the pocket, which is one concern for the road team, but Joe Burrow has still found the big passes to keep things moving. With the team likely to be in third and manageable spots, Burrow may have more time than he has been used to and that should help the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to build up some head of steam before the end of the regular season.

It may already be too late to earn a Wild Card spot, but the Bengals can just keep their hopes alive through another week and they can beat a Tennessee team that might not be as focused as they need to be.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Week 14 performance at the San Francisco 49ers was extremely disappointing, but the Chicago Bears (4-9) are a team that know big changes are coming in the off-season with a new Head Coach to be appointed. That might have factored into the performance, while some players could have been looking ahead to Week 15 and Week 16 when the Bears have an opportunity to play spoiler for the two top teams in the Division.

They will also play the Packers, but there is perhaps more on the line for the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings (11-2).

On Monday Night Football it is the Minnesota Vikings who are hosting the Bears and they still have an opportunity to not only win the NFC North, but to finish the regular season with the top Seed in the Conference.

Merely making the Playoff would have been seen as an overachievement back in September, but the Vikings are here now and ambitions of the players will never have slackened.

Sam Darnold was supposed to be a placeholder at Quarter Back, but credit has to be given to the Coaching staff in Minnesota that he has looked the franchise Quarter Back that other teams had hoped for. He is still young, so at worst case scenario for Sam Darnold is that he is in line for a big contract somewhere.

He is helped by the Coaching staff, the Wide Receivers that Minnesota have and the Vikings Offensive Line that has given Aaron Jones the spaces to burst through on the ground. All of these elements of the Offense are going to be on display, but Darnold also has to be given credit for having the courage to make the plays down the field that has sparked the team.

The Vikings should be able to get things going on the ground, which is only going to open up the dangerous passing game.

In recent games the Bears have not looked the same Defensively as injuries have piled up and a long season moves into the final run. They have not had much success in stopping the run, while the Secondary is also suffering and you have to believe the Vikings will have considerable amounts of joy when they have the ball in the hands of the Offense.

However, we saw in the first game between these Divisional rivals that Caleb Williams and the Bears can move the ball pretty well too.

The Running Backs room is banged up so it may come down to the rookie Quarter Back, but Caleb Williams will note the amount of yards this Minnesota Secondary continue to give up. The one problem with not running the ball effectively is that Williams will left operating behind the Chicago Offensive Line that has not been very good at pass protection and it is always that much more difficult throwing when under duress.

Brian Flores will also know a bit more about this rookie Quarter Back and that may help him put a game plan together to just offer a few more unfamiliar looks. The Vikings may give up a lot of passing yards, but they have also picked up the Interceptions when needed and turning the ball over here might just give them the impetus to pull away for a solid win.

The Bears did force Overtime in the first game, but it should be remembered they were down 11 points with 22 seconds left so a lot went right for Chicago at the end of that game. Another backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but the Minnesota Vikings have momentum and they may just be a bit more keen to wrap this one up at home without the same kind of drama and a turnover or two may be what it takes to do that.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

New York Jets - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (December 15-17)

The next two Premier League GameWeeks are going to come in quick succession and that means Fantasy players will have to be aware of the next two deadlines.

The first will be on Tuesday afternoon at 4:30pm and the second will be Saturday morning at 11am before the majority of the Division have a week off through to Boxing Day. At that point the next two deadlines will be at 11am on a Saturday morning and 1:30pm on Monday afternoon with the quick turnaround in fixtures meaning rotations will be in heavy use.

With the first Blank GameWeek and Double GameWeek of the season coming up in early January, I will have a few more thoughts about the latest Fantasy week below.

After a weekend in which the majority of the Premier League leaders failed to win games, it does mean the entire Division has tightened up. There are some exceptions with Sheffield United continuing to struggle, but the likes of Burnley and Fulham have just dragged Brighton back towards them after many felt the three relegated clubs were going to come from the bottom four teams after poor starts to the season.

Another round of fixtures in the Premier League will see the table look quite different by the end of Thursday evening and I also don't think we are very far away from the first Sacking in the Premier League with the likes of Slaven Bilic and Mikel Arteta beginning to feel their seats warming up considerably.

Wolves v Chelsea Pick: It was a disappointing weekend for many of the top teams in the Premier League, but Chelsea have an opportunity to at least put the pressure on some of their potential title rivals.

They get to play first during the week in the latest round of Premier League fixtures and Chelsea look to have a good chance to extend the poor run of form Wolves find themselves in.

Wolves won at Arsenal, but they were inspired to play for their team-mate Raul Jimenez who suffered a nasty injury during the game. Since then Wolves have lost back to back Premier League games and failed to score a goal without their talismanic Mexican leading the line and I do think this is going to be a real concern for Nuno Espirito Santo for as long as Jimenez is missing.

A tight Division, those back to back losses have dropped Wolves into the bottom half of the table. The manager has insisted he wants to make Wolves a regular name in European Football, but they have not found the consistency they would have wanted without the demands of playing every few days.

That is something Chelsea have had to deal with, although it was no excuse for the 1-0 defeat at Everton on Saturday. Another mistake at the back was costly this time, but Frank Lampard will feel his team deserved more than they got on the day.

You do have to worry about some of the injuries in the wide areas and I do think that makes Chelsea less threatening. They had scored at least twice in 5 away games in a row before the loss at Goodison Park, but missing the likes of Christian Pulisic, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Hakim Ziyech does reduce the attacking options.

Pulisic could be back this week, but this could be a tight game against a Wolves team who are still defending pretty well. They have been much better at the back at home especially and I do think this could be a fixture in which one of these sides could struggle to break down the other.

An early goal could change the entire complexion of the fixture, but I do think both Wolves and Chelsea have defended well enough barring a couple of mistakes here and there. If they can play a cleaner game all around, both teams will feel they are set up well enough to keep the other at arm's length and it would be no surprise if one of these teams fail to hit the back of the net.

Manchester City v West Brom Pick: There may have been some criticism with the way Manchester City approached the derby on Saturday, but Pep Guardiola will point to a clean sheet, a positive result and the feeling that his team had the best chances on the day.

With the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur all dropping points after the Manchester derby was played, the manager may also see the draw at Old Trafford in greater light now.

Anything less than a win would not be acceptable in this League fixture though, but Manchester City have to balance the squad as they continue playing every three or four days. A big game at Southampton is on deck, but Pep Guardiola will be demanding his team continue getting on top of teams early at the Etihad Stadium.

In their last 2 Premier League games here Manchester City beat Burnley 5-0 and Fulham 2-0 and in both fixtures they scored early and often. That has to be a real concern for Slaven Bilic who saw his West Brom team concede inside a minute at Newcastle United on Saturday and also within ten minutes against Crystal Palace the previous weekend.

The manager has given his team a stable platform in games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United which will be encouraging, but much is going to depend on whether West Brom can get through the early minutes at the Etihad Stadium.

In 6 of the 9 games Manchester City have hosted this season the home team have scored inside 20 minutes and I imagine they are going to make a fast start in this one. Pep Guardiola will be looking for his team to get into a comfortable position as soon as possible so he can rest some players and give others some more minutes in the leg and I do think Manchester City have proven they are capable of doing that here.

To be fair to West Brom they have been pretty good at the beginning of matches away from home not including the performance at St James' Park this past weekend.

However it will be difficult to contain Manchester City in this fixture who have scored inside ten minutes against Leicester City, Burnley and Fulham in the Premier League.

The first goal could come early in this one barring another VAR intervention which chews up three or four minutes as we saw at Craven Cottage this past Sunday. Manchester City will be looking to get on top early and they are the ones most likely to do that.

Arsenal v Southampton Pick: Another home Premier League game ending in another defeat has really ramped up the pressure on Mikel Arteta. Reports are suggesting players are not happy with their manager and that the Spaniard may have lost the dressing room, but there isn't much time to recover from the really disappointing 0-1 defeat to Burnley.

They face a much tougher opponent on Wednesday and one that is in very good form after a comfortable 3-0 win over Sheffield United on Sunday.

Southampton have won at Aston Villa and scored plenty of goals when hosting Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, although defensive vulnerabilities have been clear in all of those games. That is something that has to encourage Arsenal, but Southampton will be aware that the likes of Leicester City, Aston Villa and Burnley have all won without conceding a goal at the Emirates Stadium.

Last week this would have been a very interestingly priced game- most layers had Arsenal down as an odds on favourite, but that price has disappeared and now the expectation is that this will be a much closer game.

I think I would have been interested in picking Southampton to avoid a defeat last week, but with those prices looking very short I do think this is a fixture that needs to be watched.

As poor as the Arsenal results have been, they have been creating chances at home at the very least and this Southampton team have been far more clinical in front of goal to overachieve. They could so the same here with Danny Ings and Che Adams up front, but I think it is a hard game to really feel confident about.

If the Arsenal players haven't given up on Arteta, I do think they have the potential to earn a result. However I also think Southampton have to be massively respected and this is a fixture that could go any which way.

Leeds United v Newcastle United Pick: This should be a decent game of football on Wednesday even if you don't always equate an attacking style with Steve Bruce.

That is largely down to Leeds United and the approach they will have to every Premier League game, although you do have to be concerned with their lack of final product of late. The final touch is the one that has been missing to the good football being played and it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Leeds United have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 5 League games here.

Delve a little deeper and you will note that Leeds United have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 Premier League games since beating Aston Villa 0-3 at Villa Park.

At the same time they have been a team that have been hit and miss at the back and that should encourage Newcastle United who have pace on the counter which they used very effectively in their last couple of Premier League games.

The Leeds United numbers do suggest they will eventually put a game together where they hammer someone as everything they touch turns to gold. This is a team who have been creating a lot of opportunities but poor finishing has let them down, but Leeds United should be able to challenge a Newcastle United team who could be missing their first choice centre halves.

Like Friday night, I do think the visitors will play their part here against a Leeds United team that leave spaces behind them when they get forward.

I was tempted with picking Newcastle United to avoid a defeat here considering the lack of goals being scored by Leeds United, but they may need to score twice to do that if the home team get things right in the final third.

My feeling is that they will eventually do that, but I will look for a high-scoring game for the second time in a row at Elland Road.

Leicester City v Everton Pick: After impressive home wins this past weekend, Leicester City and Everton are sitting in the top seven places in the Premier League table.

Brendan Rodgers and Carlo Ancelotti will both believe they have a squad that can at least earn a place in Europe next season.

However I would suggest that Leicester City are in a slightly superior position of the two teams with their squad looking a little healthier all around.

I was concerned with the chances of Leicester City winning home games after their start to the Premier League season here, but they have built some momentum. Leicester City have won 5 of their last 6 games here in all competitions and they have kept clean sheets in each of those victories including a 3-0 win over Brighton on Sunday.

A fast start means the players should at least be rested for this fixture having had twenty-four hours less than Everton to prepare.

There have been signs that Everton are returning to their early season form and their 1-0 win over Chelsea will give the entire squad plenty of belief too. However I do think they are not the same team without James Rodriguez, who is a doubt for the game, and Lucas Digne's absence means there is an imbalance at the back.

I do think Everton can cause problems, but Leicester City should have spaces to exploit and James Maddison and Jamie Vardy can build on their Sunday performance.

It should be a decent game of football with both teams looking to earn the three points and so taking some chances to get forward. The recent form of Leicester City looks encouraging ahead of two very big games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, and I do think they can edge to a victory against an Everton team who have not been picking up the best away results in the last month.

Fulham v Brighton Pick: If Fulham had shown even a little more cutting edge on Sunday they would have beaten Liverpool and it needed a somewhat controversial Penalty to prevent them winning that fixture.

In recent weeks Scott Parker has to be given credit for turning around Fulham's form and the team certainly look more capable of surviving at this level. They have used pace in the final third to become much more threatening going forward and there are small signs that Fulham are getting things right defensively.

A home game against Brighton has to be targeted as one that they have to win if they are going to avoid the drop, but the visitors are a team who can be hard to predict.

Graham Potter's men were dismissed in the first half at Leicester City on Sunday, but they have rarely produced back to back disappointing efforts. Once again Brighton are finding it difficult to balance their attacking and defensive responsibilities though and I do think this could be a highly competitive fixture.

I am surprised to see Fulham down as the home underdog with recent improved results in mind- they have not been the best at Craven Cottage, but Brighton can't really say they are playing up to the level of recent visitors to this ground so I would be surprised if the home team lose.

With that in mind I am simply not quite convinced about which Brighton will show up- at their best they could win here like they did at Aston Villa, but a lack of goals has to be a concern. Fulham also don't score as many goals as their recent play has deserved, but I do think the home team are the more likely winners of the fixture.

However there look to be better options out there during the week even though the 2/1 shout on Fulham will tempt a few in I'm sure.

Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There are going to be 2000 fans at Anfield for Liverpool's home fixture with Tottenham Hotspur and it should be a time for reflection after news of Gerard Houllier's passing on Monday.

The Frenchman had a huge impact in his time managing Liverpool at the turn of the Century and the fans and players will spend some time remembering him.

After that the focus will have to turn to try and win this Premier League game as Liverpool play this top of the table clash with Tottenham Hotspur.

Recent form has seen Liverpool doing enough to get through games, but they have not been dominant and I think that will give Tottenham Hotspur a chance here. A late Penalty helped Liverpool earn a point at Fulham on Sunday, but it does mean they have not scored more than a single goal in 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions.

Fatigue may be an issue or it may be the injuries at the back meaning they don't want to take as many risks going forward, but Liverpool have not conceded more than a single goal in any of their last 5 games. Finding the balance is the challenge for Jurgen Klopp and particularly against his opposite number.

I think you would have to be living under a rock if you are not sure how Jose Mourinho is going to approach this game- in recent games against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal we have seen Tottenham Hotspur looking to counter attack and defending in numbers and clean sheets in all 3 of those suggests Mourinho has been justified in setting up his team in the manner he has.

However it didn't work on Sunday as Tottenham Hotspur conceded late in their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace and this time Mourinho was not happy with the lack of control his team displayed.

Despite the points picked up against those three opponents I mentioned, Tottenham Hotspur have not been creating a lot of chances. They did manage a total of four in those three games, but it was clinical finishing rather than the number of opportunities created which helped Tottenham Hotspur score their goals and I think Mourinho will be looking to employ the counter in this one.

It may be successful, but I also think it may mean a fixture where we don't see a lot of goals.

In recent Liverpool games goals have not exactly been flowing, while Tottenham Hotspur have played low-scoring games in each of their last 5 Premier League fixtures. Defensively Spurs should be difficult to break down, but I don't think they will be taking too many risks in the opposite direction either.

Goals have tended to be flying when these teams have met in recent seasons at Anfield, but the sole Jurgen Klopp versus Jose Mourinho Liverpool versus Tottenham Hotspur game ended with a single strike. One goal may be enough for either to win this and I do think the layers may be underestimating the chance of this being a relatively low-scoring fixture.

West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: After having 2000 fans back in to see their last home Premier League game, West Ham United would have been hoping to have the same for this London derby.

However things have changed which means we are back to playing behind closed doors, but both West Ham United and Crystal Palace could entertain those who have to watch from home.

David Moyes and Roy Hodgson may be described as managers that will set their teams up to be well organised, but in recent games both West Ham United and Crystal Palace have been creating chances going forward.

At the same time neither has been particularly solid defensively and I do think we are going to see a decent game of football here. Both teams have allowed opponents to create some good chances against them and we should see goals between these clubs.

5 of the last 7 between these clubs have ended with at least three goals shared out including both last season. 5 of the last 6 hosted by West Ham United have done the same and there is every chance that both teams will score with an early one really opening the fixture up.

Goals are not really a huge feature of Crystal Palace games, but I do think they could have successes in this fixture with Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke looking dangerous in the last couple of games. The layers are not convinced, but recent fixtures played by West Ham United and Crystal Palace suggests there will be at least three goals in this game on Wednesday evening.

Aston Villa v Burnley Pick: Both Aston Villa and Burnley had impressive 0-1 wins in the Premier League this past weekend and they should have had plenty of time to prepare for this fixture.

There isn't much of a turnaround to the next set of Premier League fixtures, but the focus has to be on this one on Thursday as both teams look to build some momentum heading into a very busy festive period.

Playing at Villa Park has been far from easy for Aston Villa in recent weeks and they have lost all 3 games here since beating Liverpool 7-2. They have been scoring goals and creating chances, but Aston Villa have been defending poorly and that has to be a concern for them.

However I am not sure Burnley are going to expose those defensive vulnerabilities of the home team having scored a single goal in 4 away Premier League games.

Sean Dyche's men have long over-performed the underlying stats and that has to be respected- what I mean when I say that is that Burnley have tended to be resilient and keep themselves in matches even when teams are seemingly creating a lot of chances against them and that has allowed them to pick up some surprising results.

Burnley have only lost 1 of their last 5 Premier League games, but the opponent have had the majority of chances in 4 of those games. Aston Villa are likely to be the latest to do that, but they have also been scoring enough goals to believe they can punish Burnley if the visitors are still giving up as many opportunities as they have been.

Last season Aston Villa scored twice in both Premier League fixtures against Burnley and I think they will be able to manage that here. Burnley did come back twice at Villa Park to earn a 2-2 draw, but they have not been creating a lot of chances of late and I am not sure they have two goals in them this time.

Backing Aston Villa to win a game featuring at least two goals looks the play here in what could be a decent watch for the neutrals.

Sheffield United v Manchester United Pick: A draw against Manchester City has to be largely accepted as a decent result in most circumstances, but the Manchester United performance was not the best on Saturday.

Coming days after the Champions League exit it felt like the manager was a little unsure about taking risks to win the game and Manchester United created very few chances.

A positive is that they didn't really give up a lot either and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be looking for Manchester United to ease some pressure on him by winning yet another away Premier League game. They have won their last 9 on their travels in the League and Manchester United have scored a host of goals in those games, although one concern remains the fact they have continued to fall behind before fighting back.

It would be a big disappointment if Manchester United had to do that at Bramall Lane on Thursday when taking on a Sheffield United team that seem to be lacking any confidence.

A 3-0 defeat at Southampton means Sheffield United have lost 7 Premier League games in a row and they are rooted to the bottom of the table and expected to be sitting there on Christmas Day. Chris Wilder has really turned the fortunes of the club in his time in charge, but it is looking beyond him this season and the big question is do the Sheffield United board make a change to try and reverse the form.

Sheffield United have been better at home, but they are lacking goals and simply not defending as well as they did last season.

A better, more organised defence conceded three times in both Premier League games against Manchester United last season and the amount of goals Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team have been scoring away from home has to be a major concern for The Blades.

Teams are creating chances against Sheffield United and Manchester United are doing the same away from home in the League. They have even managed to score at least twice at Paris Saint-Germain and Leipzig in the Champions League and I do think Manchester United will be too good on the day.

Sheffield United have been tougher to score against here, but a lot of that has to do with some poor final third play from Manchester City and West Ham United. Those teams had the chance to match the two goals that Leicester City scored here with a better performance in the final third and I do think Manchester United have shown they have played better away from Old Trafford.

There may be a few goals on Thursday night, but the majority should go for Manchester United in another away win.

MY PICKS: Wolves-Chelsea Both Teams to Score- NO

Manchester City-West Brom First Goal Before 21 Minutes

Leeds United-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals

Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals

West Ham United-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals

Aston Villa & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 13

The week could have been better, but then again it could have been a lot worse after putting up 61 points in GameWeek 12 of the Fantasy Football game.

My decision to replace Harry Kane with Patrick Bamford was not one that worked to be honest, although it has meant I am able to at least replace Diogo Jota this week and with plenty of options available.

In fact I have enough money to purchase anyone outside of the top four Midfield options and so there are plenty of choices to be made- initially my idea was to bring in another Manchester City asset considering the good looking fixture list they have, but rotation is always a worry with Pep Guardiola and the schedule is not ideal especially not the Boxing Day (26th) and Monday (28th) coming up in the next couple of weeks.

Heung-Min Son continues to overperform and could be a valuable asset once Tottenham Hotspur get through their next couple of games, but the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford also look like good choices even though Manchester United have been hit or miss all season.

I did consider options further down the list with Pascal Gross now on Penalties for Brighton, a team who have a good looking set of games coming up beginning with Fulham on Wednesday.

With a Tuesday deadline fast approaching a decision will have to be made soon, but I am definitely going to be removing Jota who has been ruled out for up to two months.

So I have begun to do some potential research on GW18 already and that is because it is a midweek round of fixtures that are seemingly going to be split before and after GW19.

What is the importance of that? For any Fantasy player it should be the ring, ring, ring of a Double GameWeek and a Blank GameWeek in the relatively early part of the season.

In recent seasons we have mainly had to wait until March before the first really big Double GameWeek is in play, but the press release from the media suggests GW18 will be split in half with five games played in that round and a further five played the week after.

It will mean for ten teams there is a Double GameWeek in play and I can imagine managers looking at their Bench Boost and Triple Captain chips while salivating about the prospect of a monster week.

After looking at the FA Cup Third Round fixtures and assuming the GW will be split in half, my feeling is that these are the fixtures that will be played in GW18 and those that will be pushed back into the GW19 Double anticipated.

(Disclaimer: I am guessing here, but the January fixture announcement is fast approaching and we may have a real schedule sooner than we think. Also remember GW18 is in the midweek between the FA Cup Third Round and next set of Premier League fixtures in GW19).

GW18

Fulham vs Manchester United (Both play FA Cup games on Saturday)

Sheffield United vs Newcastle United (Both play FA Cup games on Saturday)

Wolves vs Everton (Home team play on Friday in the Cup, Everton on Saturday lunchtime)

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace (Arsenal play Saturday, Palace play Friday)

Liverpool vs Burnley (Home team play on Friday, Burnley on Saturday).

GW19

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs play on Sunday in the FA Cup)

Leicester vs Chelsea (Away team play their FA Cup tie on a Sunday)

Leeds vs Southampton (Leeds play their FA Cup tie on Sunday)

Man City vs Brighton (Both teams play on Sunday in the Cup)

West Ham vs West Brom (Already been announced to be moved to the midweek of GW19)

Now I could be wrong in the assumption that the schedule will be split exactly in half (although I wouldn't understand if it wasn't) and obviously the way I've split the fixtures is my guess with the FA Cup fixtures scheduled as they are.

It would mean DGW19 is the biggest one we will have in the Fantasy game this season, although much will depend on the FA Cup draws further down the line with the Quarter Final and Semi Final dates clashing with Premier League games currently in place.

I don't believe we are going to have a DGW for those clubs that are going to reach the League Cup Final though- my reason for that is that there is a midweek free between the scheduled date of the League Cup Final and the next set of Premier League fixtures and with at least one of those Finalists expected to be involved in European action there won't be much time to reschedule their League fixture further down the line and especially not if those same clubs have strong FA Cup runs.

We will know a lot more about that over the next month though and so I am not concerning myself about those fixtures in late February through to mid-April just yet.

Three games have yet to be played from the Premier League schedule up to this point- Aston Villa, Burnley, Manchester City and Manchester United all were missing in action in GW1, while the Aston Villa vs Newcastle United game is the only one that has yet to be postponed due to the Covid-10 pandemic.

If the split is how I have put together then it is unlikely that the Aston Villa vs Newcastle United game will be played in January, but it is a potential DGW candidate for late February/early March. Neither team is in Europe so there is a possibility it could be moved to an early kick off slot in one of those midweeks too, but this is definitely an extra DGW fixture.

The key for us players will be whether they have two good looking fixtures to want to double or treble up players, but I doubt that will be the case for Newcastle United players and my team at any time this season. I have already had a triple Aston Villa approach and I think their players could be mainstays in the squad despite the difficult fixtures coming up.

While the Aston Villa vs Newcastle United game has a number of slots in which it could be placed, that is not the case for the Manchester City vs Aston Villa and Burnley vs Manchester United fixtures.

Both Manchester clubs are still in the League Cup so there is a real possibility they will have another postponement when the League Cup Final is played in late February, and both are involved in Europe and have had deep FA Cup runs in recent years.

The point? I am not sure they can really wait too long to make up those GW1 fixtures which were postponed.

Again I am only assuming my fixture split is something like what we will see in early January, but if those do come out that way there is the possibility of Manchester City vs Aston Villa landing in GW18 and Burnley vs Manchester United landing in GW19.

Neither Manchester club will be happy they are still playing every few days through January and not earning the break that others may enjoy, but it may also present the best chance to make up for postponed games. That is especially the case this season where you don't want to leave too many games for the end of the season as postponements through Covid-19 can't be dismissed even though it has not had a deep effect on the fixtures to this point.

For those who have kept their first Wild Card it is possible to prepare for the split of GW18 better than those of us who can't, but I am not planning on doing too much with my team.

At this stage there is no need to think too hard about those fixtures until they are confirmed, but I am hopeful that we will get the January fixtures sooner than later. I could suggest the Free Hit being a potential play, but I would rather hold onto that until later in the season barring more than 50% of the Premier League clubs being knocked out of the FA Cup before the Fifth Round.

At least two are going out in the Third Round, and we will get the draw for the Fourth Round before GW18 is set to be played which may change direction for my approach towards it. However I do think it will be possible to take some short-term pain with long-term gain in mind.

As we move through the festive period I am sure I will address this again.

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (December 14-16)

The games keep coming thick and fast for those clubs in the English Leagues and it is another round of Premier League fixtures upon us this weekend.

These come at the end of the final Group fixtures in the Champions League and Europa League and fans of the English Premier League clubs will all be looking forward to where they may be heading in February when those competitions resume. Those ties will be drawn out on Monday so the focus this weekend will solely be on the Premier League at the start of a week in which the majority of teams will know will be their final chance to rest up wary legs ahead of the festive schedule.

The likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Everton, Aston Villa and Leicester City do have Cup commitments to come this week, but the other fourteen Premier League clubs will have a week to prepare for their next fixture following this one. We then have a thirteen day period in which FOUR full rounds of Premier League fixtures are going to be played including the traditional Boxing Day and New Year's Day commitments.

We do have a Winter Break this year... Except that is going to come in the second week of February and that means the festive time of the season is as busy as it ever is. Most managers won't appreciate the short time between games, and for fans it can also be stressful particularly those who make the effort to travel to fixtures.

Those sitting down in their warm homes to watch the games probably can't get enough with live fixtures throughout those thirteen days mentioned.


November was a pretty miserable month for the Football Picks, but December has opened much better and it was another winning week last time out. The Fantasy game did not go nearly as well for me as I continue to arrogantly overlook Leicester City much as I did four years ago, although I have at least been smart enough to ride them on their strong winning run as far as the Picks go.

My Fantasy thoughts were GW17 will be seen below as I consider the use of my first Wild Card of the season, but before that let's get on with the Picks from the games to come over this weekend.


Liverpool v Watford Pick: The first Premier League game of the weekend comes from Anfield and Liverpool are very firm favourites to extend their lead at the top of the table for a few hours at least.

A solid win at Salzburg in the Champions League during the week has helped Liverpool into the Last 16 draw in that competition and they continue having to face a busy fixture list during this festive month. Jurgen Klopp has rotated his squad efficiently, but there are plenty of days between the Salzburg, Watford and then the World Club Cup Semi Final to ensure he can pick the players he wants.

On recent showings it doesn’t really matter what kind of team is selected by Klopp as Liverpool have worked their past teams comfortably. Changed teams beat Everton 5-2 here and Bournemouth 0-3 at the Vitality Stadium and I think it is going to be a very difficult match for their visitors.

For the third time this season Watford players will have to listen to a new voice leading the dressing room. Nigel Pearson has surprisingly been given the task of picking the players up as they have found themselves 6 points from safety while occupying bottom place in the Premier League table.

The Hornets were a touch unfortunate not to beat Crystal Palace at home last weekend, but prior to that their three losses in a row had come in games they had been dominated. Better finishing from opponents would have seen heavier losses for Watford and Pearson is likely going to want his team to get back to basics and at least defend better than they have been.

However it is a big ask of them with injuries piling up and I think Watford might be in for another forgettable visit to this ground.

The last six visits have all ended in losses, but the last three have come by five goal margins each time as Watford have been outscored 16-1 in that time.

I can only see a relatively comfortable win for Liverpool who have had back to back clean sheets this week. Only two of Liverpool’s eight home wins have come by more than two goal margins which is needed to cover this Asian Handicap, but I think Liverpool will earn a push at the very least and recent history suggests they can blow this short of confidence Watford team away.


Burnley v Newcastle United Pick: These teams have slipped past one another in the last couple of weeks as Burnley’s form has plummeted at the same time Newcastle United have begun producing some big results.

It might have changed the feeling around the two clubs too, but I think you have to look a little deeper at the factors in play to determine what has been happening.

Newcastle United have earned 7 points from a possible 9, but to say they have been a touch fortunate might be an understatement. These two teams have both hosted Manchester City in the last couple of weeks and the underlying numbers were superior for Burnley compared with Newcastle United, but Burnley were beaten 1-4 and Newcastle United drew 2-2.

Even in the last couple of wins earned by The Magpies you could point out that they have been on the right side of the luck and I do think that is something that can’t be ignored.

Burnley have been very poor the last couple of games in terms of their defensive performances, but Sean Dyche has had a week to work with his players and I would expect them to be a lot better on Saturday. Aside from the Manchester City defeat, Burnley have actually played well at home and deserved more than what they got in their defeats to Chelsea and Crystal Palace.

Those teams mentioned are also stronger than Newcastle United in general and I can see Burnley bouncing back for a win this weekend. Being able to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw is tough to pass up and I will look for the home team to return to winning ways on Saturday.


Chelsea v Bournemouth Pick: For the most part I do think Chelsea fans are going to accept their current position as a young team continues to lack the consistency that those fans have become accustomed to. However Frank Lampard will point out how well his team are doing considering they are in the top four in the Premier League and in the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Recent results might have been disappointing and Chelsea concede too many goals, but they have flourished going forward and the removal of the transfer ban could see them improve further in January.

In saying all that, Chelsea are a pretty hard team to get a strong read on. They do play some very good football, but they are not clinical in the final third and that has meant some tighter than expected games. Take Tuesday as an example as Chelsea hammered Lille for a large majority of the fixture, but conceded and had to hold on a little bit in the 2-1 win.

Every team will come to Stamford Bridge and think they do have a chance to score goals, but Bournemouth might be short of some firepower this weekend. Injuries have really hurt a team who have lost 5 Premier League games in a row and 5 of their last 6 away from home in all competitions and it was more of the same last weekend.

Both Nathan Ake and Callum Wilson are set to miss out and that really hurts Bournemouth on both sides of the field. It may make it more difficult to keep a Chelsea team at bay who have been creating a lot of chances, while the loss of a threat like Wilson should make things a touch easier for Chelsea to deal with too.

Bournemouth have won 2 of their 4 visits to Stamford Bridge in the Premier League and they have been largely competitive in games. However they needed two very late goals to claw back a 3-0 deficit to Tottenham Hotspur in their last visit to London a couple of weeks ago and I think Chelsea can win by a comfortable margin.

The Blues are hard to trust to do that considering the amount of goals they have been conceding, but I think they have the attacking threats to pull away for a solid win this weekend.


Leicester City v Norwich City Pick: In the last few weeks Leicester City have been easy winners for anyone reading my picks, but they have perhaps been found out now by the layers.

During that time we have been able to comfortably back Leicester City at - 0.25 and - 1.25 on the Asian Handicap in home games in the Premier League, while we also hit a couple of games where we could back Leicester City to win fixtures that feature at least two goals.

All of those markets have been comfortably dominated by Leicester City in their 9 game winning run, but the layers are now asking them to cover a much bigger handicap. Forget about backing Leicester City to win a game with two or more goals as that is very, very short too, but I do think Brendan Rodgers has his team playing with a lot of confidence at the moment.

It is hard to see Norwich City changing that, although Leicester City have to be focused. They do have a big League Cup Quarter Final coming up in the week before facing Manchester City and Liverpool in the Premier League, so it is easy for fans and players to take a fixture like this for granted, but I would expect Rodgers to have drilled professionalism into his team.

If that is the case, I do think Norwich City will have a very difficult day as they continue to allow teams to create too many chances against them. Daniel Farke wants his team to play in a particular way, but that has not really worked out as planned and Norwich City are a team who can be punished by one like Leicester City.

I am going to take some of the juice out of this price as it is hard to see Leicester City clearing the bigger Asian Handicap. While they can do it when at their best, Leicester City have only won 1 of their 8 home League games by more than a two goal margin.

However 4 of those games have ended with wins by exactly two goals and so backing The Foxes to cover the smaller Asian Handicap is reasonable enough at the price.


Sheffield United v Aston Villa Pick: These two teams were both promoted together last season and both should be happy with the way things have gone for them so far in the 2019/20 campaign.

The happier are going to be Sheffield United, but they needed to come from behind to beat Norwich City last weekend and snap a run of 4 games without a win in the Premier League. Last time out here they were beaten 0-2 by Newcastle United and that makes it very hard to look at the odds on quotes for a home win and be satisfied with the price.

On the other hand Aston Villa have also been in poor recent form, although they have been involved in a difficult part of their fixture list having faced all of the current top six in their last 7 Premier League games. It won't surprise that they have lost a fair few of those games, but Aston Villa were only narrowly seen off by Chelsea and earned a draw at Old Trafford in the last couple of weeks.

Those results have to be respected and I think Aston Villa play enough attacking football to cause problems for the hosts. Defensively they look very vulnerable though and I think it makes this a very difficult game to call.

Backing at least three goals to be shared out appeals and both League games between Sheffield United and Aston Villa produced at least five goals last season. Recent Sheffield United games have perhaps been a little harder to get a read on with the team capable of strong defence, but also showing they can create chances and score goals.

However Aston Villa games have largely featured plenty of goal-mouth activity and I think that will be the case when these teams meet for the first time as Premier League clubs since 2006/07.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: In the last couple of months I have mentioned a few times that Southampton home games tend to be high-scoring and both teams scoring has been a regular occurrence.

For a long time the layers seemed to ignore this despite all the underlying stats suggesting it was not just a lucky trend, but one where teams were both creating chances and being challenged by Southampton regularly.

Now the layers are winning with very short prices on both the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score market. Some of that may also be down to the opponent as West Ham United have continued to concede far too many goals, but also score a fair few themselves.

Southampton have won back to back home games which has seen them placed at odds on to win this one, but that looks incredibly short to me. As good as they have been to win those games, you can't ignore one was against Watford and the other against Norwich City, while Southampton needed late goals to overturn the 0-1 deficit they faced against The Hornets.

They are facing another team who are struggling so Southampton are rightly expected to win this game, but I would want a better price than I am seeing. Even backing goals might not be ideal in this one considering how poor West Ham United have been away from home in recent games and the fact they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 on their travels in the Premier League.

Games between these two teams have been high-scoring in recent times, but I think this one I can move past.


Manchester United v Everton Pick: After beating Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, facing AZ Alkmaar was a slightly flatter game for Manchester United and for the first half you could see that in the performance.

However Ole Gunnar Solskjaer clearly fired up the players and reminded them of their responsibilities and Manchester United went on to win the game 4-0 and top their Europa League Group. They can put that competition to the back of their mind for a couple of months, while Manchester United will be hoping they can keep the momentum going with a fourth win in a row.

They are back at Old Trafford for the second of three straight games here and Manchester United have begun to find a lot more goals in recent games. They have scored at least twice in 5 straight in all competitions here and unsurprisingly Manchester United have managed to win 4 of those games with the sole exception being a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa.

Confidence is flowing through the squad at the moment and some of the key performers have been well rested on Thursday so they should be ready to go.

The same can be said of Everton though after being fired up by former player turned interim manager Duncan Ferguson who was beloved at the club. The fans will get behind Ferguson, someone I have admired for his play, and he was someone who loved scoring against Manchester United from his days on the field.

Duncan Ferguson will be hoping to take that former pedigree against Manchester United into his managerial career, but he is dealing with a few injuries in the Everton squad. It also doesn't help that the side are playing away from Goodison Park and Everton have been conceding far too many goals on their travels which makes it hard to see them earning a result here.

Manchester United have not have many clean sheets and I have no doubt that will encourage Everton, but I do think the defensive concerns override the ones at the other end. Injuries are not helping the cause for Everton and they have conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 7 away Premier League games.

The recent record at Old Trafford does not make for great reading either for Everton and I think Manchester United can keep the positive vibe going through another weekend. A rested set of players can come out and secure the win and I will back Manchester United to do that in a game featuring two or more goals too.


Wolves v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: I was a little surprised to note that this is not a game that was selected for television coverage considering how much fun the two Premier League games played between Wolves and Tottenham Hotspur were in the 2018/19 campaign.

Both were won by the away team who needed three goals to secure the points and it could be more attacking football on display on Sunday.

The television companies surprised me, but so did the layers who have Tottenham Hotspur as favourites to win here. Jose Mourinho has made an immediate impact since taking over what was an underachieving team, but 3 of the 4 wins earned have been secured at home.

As they did under Mauricio Pochettino, Tottenham Hotspur have struggled on their travels and they have been beaten at Manchester United and Bayern Munich in their last couple away from home. The latter was a dead rubber, but Tottenham Hotspur continue to concede goals for fun and only in 1 of the 6 games under Mourinho have they allowed fewer than two goals.

Wolves have been strong and they have managed their European and domestic commitments better than most would have expected. Over the last sixteen months they have constantly shown they can give the top teams something to think about and I don't think they will be intimidated by Tottenham Hotspur, especially not when you consider they have won 3 of their last 4 here.

The home team have been creating chances and scoring goals and that gives them every chance of upsetting Tottenham Hotspur in this one. I can only imagine it will be a fixture that features goals considering the recent form of the two clubs, but I can see Wolves avoiding defeat and that makes me want to go for a 'same game multi' at Paddy Power.

Backing Wolves to avoid defeat and adding the fixture to be one that features two or more goals can be found at odds against at that layer. Considering the recent level of Tottenham Hotspur it is very difficult to imagine them failing to score, but they concede enough to give the home team confidence to maintain their unbeaten run here and that looks the selection for me.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: If you are someone who enjoys watching high-scoring football matches I do think this could be the right match for you on Sunday afternoon when Arsenal host Manchester City.

Neither team has looked very comfortable at the back and teams are able to create chances against them, while both Arsenal and Manchester City have been productive in the final third when looking to attack.

Goals can quickly change games and I do feel the team to get their nose in front in this one will be difficult to pull back. I don't think either is playing with a lot of confidence, but both Arsenal and Manchester City have recovered from being a goal behind in matches this week and that may be the only encouragement for whichever team concedes first.

Arsenal are going to be playing in a difficult environment as the fans have been quick to get on the backs of players at the Emirates Stadium. I do think that is contributing to the poor run here and losing home matches to Eintracht Frankfurt and Brighton is not ideal preparation for a fixture like this one.

They have to deal with a Manchester City team who have arguably produced their two best away performances in wins over Burnley and Dinamo Zagreb this month. Playing away from home has given Manchester City the chance to exploit more gaps as their hosts have come onto them and I do think the defending Champions are still playing well enough to believe they can win here.

As I have mentioned, I would not be surprised if both teams score in this fixture and I am expecting goals. However my bigger feeling is that Manchester City are going to continue to be too good for an Arsenal team who have defended very, very poorly and I like the visitors to win here.

They have beaten Arsenal 5 times in a row and all of those wins have come by two or more goal margins including the last 2 at the Emirates Stadium. If Manchester City score first I can see them really hurting Arsenal with the spaces that are likely to be left behind by the home team and I will look for Pep Guardiola's to get back to winning ways in the Premier League in an Asian Handicap covering effort.


Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: Monday Night Football might not look that appealing on first glance, but any derby game should bring plenty on intensity to the fore.

The M23 rivalry is a strange one as Crystal Palace and Brighton really aren’t that close in terms of distance. It developed in a different way to most rivalries, but that does not mean it is any less fierce and there should be plenty of passion on display in the stands.

The atmosphere will help, but the bigger factor here is the improving Brighton team who are learning more and more about the style Graham Potter wants them to use. There is no doubting that The Seagulls are a lot more pleasing on the eye than when under the guidance of Chris Hughton, but importantly it is a style that is producing positive results too.

Brighton’s win over Arsenal and the draw with Wolves shows what they can achieve, although it is also a style that has made Brighton a little less solid defensively. That is the balancing act Graham Potter is playing with, but it does mean Brighton games have featured more goals than previous seasons.

Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace can’t really say the same though as they continue to be a functional side that relies on one or two special moments to win games. At home it has been hard for them as teams won’t be as open to leave spaces for Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend to exploit, but Crystal Palace have been dragged into high-scoring games by Brighton in recent times.

In fact the last four times this derby has been played it has featured at least three goals scored. I can see both teams having their chances in this one with Brighton showing good threat in the final third without being as tough defensively.

A lack of creativity continues to hurt Crystal Palace, but I expect them to have one or two more chances than usual at Selhurst Park and backing at least three goals to be shared out at a big price is the selection for the last Premier League match of this round of fixtures.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.71 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.62 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sheffield United-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Coral (2 Units)
Wolves/Draw Double Chance & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.07 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

December 2019/20: 9-6, + 4.56 Units (30 Units Staked, + 15.20% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 17

Just like Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park: The Lost World, my first reaction to seeing Jamie Vardy had scored yet again was 'hang on, this is going to be bad'.

And it was.

I had a terrible GameWeek 16 and one which has seen me fail to Qualify for the FPL Cup after a lowly 48 points for the week.

The last month has been pretty terrible to be honest and it has seen what was a very positive start lose a lot of momentum. The Vardy run has been a killer and it is more irritating that he has got away with some real luck in that time with a couple of penalties including a retaken one which produced a massive swing for those who had him in their squad and especially those who had Captained him.

Some may say it is my own arrogance that is doing me in, but I mentioned Vardy before the Southampton game and decided to go a different way when he was valued at less than 9 million. Now he is over 10 million and with the couple of big League games coming up I am going to take the pain of knowing he is facing a defensively inept Norwich City this weekend.

Another aspect which has hurt during this Leicester City run is the lack of returns from Youri Tielemans who was someone else I had considered removing from the squad. While the fixtures were decent I decided to leave him in, but have had little reward although he does have one more week to make up for it.

The Captain pick continues to let me down too an dI have left far too many points out there, although the frustration is expected to continue during the festive period when players are rotated in and out during a hectic time of the year.

Thank God for Anthony Martial and Danny Ings who at least helped me produce a semi-competitive score and I know am in a position where I believe I am going to be using my WildCard next weekend.

I can carry two transfers over and make enough changes to have a full eleven next week despite Liverpool and West Ham United not being in action, but my decision is leaning that way because I have gone big at the back with the League leaders (and typical they get a clean sheet on the one day when one of those defenders is rested having failed to have one in eleven previous games).

While both Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold have produced returns, a difficult run is coming up for Liverpool and as I don't support them I am hoping it will be one where they can drop points. It will mean making changes at the back, but I feel those are best served if I can make big improvements in the midfield and attacking areas to make those transfers worthwhile.

The reality is I am not making a vast change to the process- the Wild Card was either going to be used for the Boxing Day fixtures or the GW18 coming up, so I am maintaining what I want to do with my squad.

With that in mind I should have a fuller FPL portion of this thread next week as I write down some of my decision making in reshaping the squad. This week I am going to use my one transfer to remove Fiyako Tomori from my squad, although it is not one that is going to affect the first eleven I am selecting.

48 points was a terrible score last week, I am expecting a lot better this time around.

My GW17 Team

David De Gea- Manchester United have found some form and I do think the underlying statistics suggest they will get back amongst the clean sheets sooner than later. The next three games might be that opportunity for the team.

Andrew Robertson- rotation is a concern for Liverpool, but this is the biggest game they play this week. A chance for a third clean sheet in a row.

Trent Alexander-Arnold: one more booking will mean a suspension for the right back and that would come against Leicester City on Boxing Day if he gets it here. It might mean the full back is rested to avoid that scenario which would not be a big surprise despite Liverpool defensive injuries.

Caglar Soyuncu- Leicester City host Norwich City who have struggled for goals away from home all season.

Sadio Mane (C)- was rested against Bournemouth, but Liverpool played last Tuesday and will be next out with the first team on Wednesday. It should mean Mane is starting against Watford who have conceded 16 goals in their last three visits to Anfield.

Raheem Sterling- people are jumping off the Raheem Sterling bandwagon at an alarming rate, but he should have an opportunity to punish them against Arsenal.

Anthony Martial (VC)- a goal in the Manchester derby should give Anthony Martial a lot of confidence. Got 60 more minutes in the Europa League to build sharpness and is the Manchester United Number 9.

Youri Tielemans- has not really provided an attacking return even if he remains a quality midfielder. One more chance to impress me from a stats view, I already know he is someone I would love in the Manchester United midfield.

Dele Alli- a tough game at Wolves this weekend, but Alli was rested during the week and is Jose Mourinho's 'main man' in the Number 10 position at Tottenham Hotspur.

Lys Mousset- was taken off early last Sunday, but Chris Wilder says that had nothing to do with an injury. Should get the start against a defensively suspect Aston Villa.

Danny Ings- I brought him in because of the Southampton fixture list and Danny Ings has not disappointed. You would think he will have one or two chances to keep his own goal streak going when facing West Ham United at home.

Bench- Michael McGovern, John Lundstram (I don't mind him as the first sub as a potential midfielder coming in to play against Aston Villa who concede a lot of goals), Serge Aurier (Now this is the transfer I am using this week even though I am keeping Aurier as my second sub- my thinking is that he has established himself as the right back of choice at Tottenham Hotspur and offers attacking returns, while I think he has the potential of improving in value. A game at Wolves and then home against Chelsea isn't easy, but Spurs have a good set of matches after that in which I will be using Aurier more often than not and only 300K more expensive than Tomori who has been banged up), Xande Silva