Weekend Football Picks 2013 (September 14-16)

With the latest round of international games behind us, the domestic Leagues will be back in action before the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage begins next week and the next four weeks are an important time for clubs.

That is the time between the last international round of games and the next one and there are a number of games to be played in that time as the Premier League and the Cup competitions really get going. I always think you can begin to get a feel for how a League will develop after 10 games are played, a quarter of the season, and we will almost get to that mark by the time the next round of World Cup Qualifiers come around.

I have written the latest 'United Corner' focusing on Manchester United and the first month of the season and that can be read here.


The transfer window closed at the end of the last round of Premier League games which means there are a few moves made on the final day which will see players making their debuts for their new clubs. That could be very interesting to watch in the coming weeks as managers have to find the right blend with the squads they have put together until January and it will be an exciting time for the fans attending the games too.


It was a tough first month of the season mainly down to the last weekend when anything I expected to happened went the opposite way, but there were a couple of months like that last season too so hopefully I am getting that out of the way. This is the start of a new month and hopefully the games settle down now that the squads are set for the next three months and players should be focused with things on the pitch moving forwards.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: A disappointing transfer window and a tough start to the new season has made this a more important match for David Moyes to find the winning solution than it perhaps looks like on the face of things.

Manchester United's defeat at Liverpool means they have failed to score in their last two Premier League games, while the media will love to continue pointing out that Moyes has never won a match at Old Trafford, especially if United fail to win this weekend.

The international break will mean Carrington was a lot quieter over the previous two weeks than Crystal Palace would have been and that could cause the home team to perhaps start off a little slower than the fans at Old Trafford may like. The early start won't help, but I expect United to take control of the game in the second half and they should be able to move away from Palace for the win.

Crystal Palace fans will point to their 1-2 win here in the League Cup in 2011, but they had lost 7 in a row at Old Trafford prior to that game and the side are going to do well to keep Nani, Ashley Young, Antonio Valencia, Robin Van Persie, Danny Welbeck and Javier Hernandez quiet. I very much expect United to win this by a couple of goals with the way Crystal Palace have defended at times, and there is every chance the result could be even more comfortable for a United side that will want to kick start their season with another tough match at Manchester City to come next weekend.


Fulham v West Brom Pick: Martin Jol may be feeling his manager seat becoming a little warmer if he can't guide Fulham to wins in the coming weeks. Under the Dutchman's guidance, Fulham have seen the fortress Craven Cottage breached a number of times and they are no longer as tough to play here as they were in the years under Roy Hodgson and Mark Hughes.

Fulham may not have played that well recently, but they have players like Bryan Ruiz, Dimitar Berbatov and Darren Bent in the squad so they do have goals- that may show up against West Brom who are missing Ben Foster and the Baggies have also struggled to open the season.

If the results from the second half of the season were taken alone last season, West Brom would have finished bottom of the Premier League and those struggles have continued at the beginning of this season. Fulham have dominated this fixture in recent times and I think they are worth backing to once again get the better of West Brom.


Stoke City v Manchester City Pick: Mark Hughes has certainly made an impact at Stoke City in his short time as manager of the club and the fans must have been very impressed with the way the Potters passed West Ham United to death in their last League game.

It will be interesting to see if Hughes continues trying to get his team playing football when the bigger clubs in the Premier League face them, particularly at the Brittania Stadium, or whether Stoke will revert to the tactics that have proved so successful in the top flight since they were promoted a few seasons ago.

The first test of that will come against Manchester City who will not want to show the defensive frailties of the first month of the season as they make the short trip to this ground. Manchester City were terrible defensively in their surprise loss to Cardiff City in August and even Hull City created enough chances to perhaps steal a point at the Etihad Stadium ahead of the international break.

Stoke have held City to draws in their last 4 home Premier League games against them and that really puts me off the away win price which looks remarkably short considering how well Stoke played last time out. However, City did win here in the FA Cup last season and they could be good enough to take the 3 points here.

Stoke lost half of their home games against the top six last season and while Hughes will fire them up to give his former club all they can handle, Manchester City may just nick this by a single goal margin.


Sunderland v Arsenal Pick: It does seem that Arsenal are going to be one of the more popular picks of the weekend football as the signing of Mesut Ozil gives them more attacking firepower, although I am mainly opposing Sunderland in this one.

Paolo Di Canio has brought in a lot of new personnel to the Stadium of Light and it is clear that it could take a few weeks for the players to get on board with what the Italian expects of them, although I can't see them avoiding a fight against relegation.

Injuries are also taking a toll and the suspension of John O'Shea leaves them a little short at the back. Sunderland have struggled for goals and how can they keep up with an Arsenal side that comfortably dismissed Fulham at Craven Cottage last month as well as winning in Turkey against Fenerbahce.

There are goals in the Arsenal side and I can't see anything but an away win from this game, even at the horribly short odds that are being offered.


Tottenham Hotspur v Norwich City Pick: The loss of Gareth Bale will certainly be felt by Tottenham Hotspur, even if only for the first few weeks of the season until the new players get accustomed to what is expected of them at their new club.

Spurs have looked a little disjointed at times in their opening three games, but they have won two of those games and that is a positive to take forward, even if the 1-0 loss at Arsenal would have disappointed the fans.

They have to get enough service to Roberto Soldado if they are to take advantage of the Spanish striker's movement and finishing as he does his best work inside the opposition penalty box and Andre Villas-Boas will be hoping the likes of Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela can provide the ammunition and also help fill in for Bale's goals from last year.

I do expect the home side to create chances against Norwich City who were fortunate to pick up four points from home games against Everton and Southampton. The Canaries were disappointing in a 1-0 loss at Hull City and they will give Spurs a chance to put another three points on the board.

I do believe Spurs will win this one by a couple of goals, although they may still be in the settling in period for the new signings and it may be a disjointed match at times.


MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Fulham @ 2.15 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win by 1 Goal @ 3.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 1.70 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)


August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

College Football Week 3 Picks 2013 (September 12-14)

There is no doubt that the entire national attention for Week 3 is the rematch between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Alabama Crimson Tide with the winner having a big inside track to playing in the National Championship Game in January.

There are strong reasons to think either team could win this game- the Aggies have an Offense that will cause Alabama problems, while the Crimson Tide didn't set the world alight with their own Offensive display in their win in Week 1 against the Virginia Tech Hokies.

However, Nick Saban has an incredibly strong record in rematches and the gut feeling I have is that the Crimson Tide will be ready and able to overcome their trip to College Station, although I am not so sure they cover the spread. Whether the Aggies make it as one of my picks this week is yet to be decided...

Week 2 saw big wins for the Georgia Bulldogs who I said were not out of the National Championship Game if they could run the table despite the defeat to Clemson in Week 1- the Bulldogs have a decent schedule from here on out and I expect them to represent the SEC East in the Conference Title game in December... Win that and Georgia could be picked to play the National Championship Game next January.


It was the second positive week of the season as Week 2 concluded and I have been fortunate to miss the backdoor covers that blighted the picks I made last season, especially early in the season. Hopefully I can continue to miss those beats, even if two of the losses this season have come thanks to touchdowns scored i the last minute of games.


Akron Zips @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: The Michigan Wolverines picked up an important win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last week and that game wasn't as close as the final score suggested. They do look the team that could prevent the Ohio State Buckeyes playing in the National Championship Game and there are lots of positives for Brady Hoke to take out of their first two games.

Hoke has made it clear he doesn't expect a letdown for his team after such a positive result last weekend, and it is hard to see how they could blow this game against the Zips. Michigan should be able to move the chains all day and they have been decent in their position as a home favourite by improving to 10-5 against the spread in that position under Brady Hoke.

Akron could certainly scupper this pick with late scores, especially with the spread as big as it is, and they have an Offense that will feel they can put up points. However, I do think Michigan are going to score at will and I expect them to win this by 39 points or more.


Louisville Cardinals @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: Teddy Bridgewater could easily be the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft next year, especially if Jacksonville Jaguars are in that position, and he has opened the season with the confidence of a player that knows what he can do on a football field.

Bridgewater has won his two starts against Kentucky and will look to complete a hat-trick with a strong Offense helping out. He should have time to carve up the Wildcats Defense and the Cardinals will play with the knowledge that this is as good an opportunity to show what they can do against a SEC team to compare with some of the other teams fighting for the chance to play in a big Bowl game.

Kentucky won easily last week, but were beaten by Western Kentucky to open the season and the Cardinals do look a lot more talented in almost all aspects of the game. The rivalry will likely make this a close, competitive game at first, but Louisville look too talented to not put up a lot of points and to clear this spread.


Tennessee Volunteers @ Oregon Ducks Pick: The Oregon Ducks haven't slowed down despite seeing Chip Kelly depart for the NFL and the internal appointment of Mark Helfrich has certainly helped in that regard.

While Tennessee are also unbeaten, they were fortunate to have as many turnovers as they did last week against Western Kentucky and were actually down on the stats that suggested the Hilltoppers could have won without the mistakes. Oregon are less likely to make those mistakes and they have such speed and score points so rapidly that this could be tough for Tennessee to keep up.

The Ducks will look to make a statement against an SEC team that others can match up against when it comes to the National Championship Game discussion. Tennessee are also 2-5 against the spread as the road underdog in the last couple of seasons and this could end in a similar manner to when Oregon visited Knoxville three years ago and end with a comfortable Ducks win.


Northern Illinois Huskies @ Idaho Vandals Pick: This looks a real mismatch in favour of the Northern Illinois Huskies, especially with a two week break to prepare for this game. Jordan Lynch is the best Quarter Back in the MAC Conference and he should have his way, be it through the air or on the ground, against the Vandals Defense.

Idaho have been blown out twice this season already and there was a concern that they may not be motivated to their full levels as an Independent like they are this season. Being heavily beaten by Wyoming and North Texas does not bode well against a talented team like the Huskies but they can at least enjoy being at home in this one.

The Vandals are just 2-6 against the spread as the home underdog over the last three seasons and the level of talent difference between the two teams doesn't bode well for them.  Northern Illinois are well rested and there is a real feeling they can get to another big Bowl Game having competed in the Orange Bowl last year and I just expect the Huskies to blow out the Vandals here.


Maryland Terrapins @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: The Maryland Terrapins look to have the edge in this game and I can't help feel that the Connecticut Huskies are being a touch over-rated from last season.

Defensively, there has been a sharp drop off of talent from a year ago and Connecticut could find it tough against a Maryland Offense that has a number of playmakers and should be able to score plenty of points all season.

It was a poor performance all around by Connecticut to lose to an FCS school in their first game of the season, especially considering they were over 16 points favourites to win that game. They gave up almost 400 yards in that loss, while the Offensive Line struggles could be exposed and stunt their own drives.

My biggest concern is that the Huskies are 15-3 against the spread as a home underdog in recent years, but Maryland should be able to win this by a Touchdown or more.


Kansas Jayhawks @ Rice Owls Pick: The Rice Owls may have lost their opening game at Texas A&M, but a replication of that level of performance should see them beat the Kansas Jayhawks with some room to spare.

Rice moved the ball very effectively on the ground in the game against the Aggies and I think that is an area they will cause Kansas some problems in this one, especially as the Jayhawks just aren't as talented as the Owls look.

Charlie Weis needs a couple of top recruiting classes to get this program back on track but at the moment Kansas don't look like they have a lot of talent to improve too much on their 1-11 season last year, even if they have already won their first game.

I am expecting Rice to be able to move the chains much more effectively than Kansas in this one and they should be able to pull away for the win and cover. The Jayhawks are 3-8 against the spread as the road underdog in the last two years, while Rice are 9-2 against the spread as the home favourite in recent years too.


UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies Pick: Both of these teams will be expected to move the chains easily enough in this one as both have an edge with their Offenses being slightly stronger than the Defense they face. I expect both teams to score well, but I also believe UTEP have the talent edge that could see them create one big play to turn the momentum in their favour.

The Miners might be able to create an extra turnover, make a critical stop on a fourth down play or just break a big play Offensively in the game that helps them cover the spread in this one and win their first game of the season.

UTEP have won 4 in a row against the Aggies in this series, winning on their last 2 visits to New Mexico State, while the Aggies are 6-11 against the spread as the home underdog. 


UTSA Roadrunners @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: The UTSA Roadrunners scored 28 points in the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys last week to secure a backdoor cover in that game, but they may struggle to replicate that effort at the Arizona Wildcats.

The Roadrunners would have been looking forward to the game against the Cowboys and they did put in a lot of effort in front of their own fans, but it can be a little more difficult on the road. They are also facing an Arizona Wildcats team that looks very powerful Offensively and one who will look to make a statement before their bye week and then a big game against Pac-12 rival Washington.

One concern is that the Wildcats didn't play that well as the home favourite last season, going 2-4 against the spread, but they can focus fully on this game and I expect they can score enough points to see off UTSA and cover the spread.


MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 37 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 14 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 28 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Northern Illinois Huskies - 28.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Maryland Terrapins - 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Rice Owls - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
UTEP Miners - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 24.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)

Season 2013: 10-5, + 4.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 28.60% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

NFL Week 2 Picks 2013 (September 12-16)

It was a strange first week of the new season with some surprise results and some clear blowouts, but the majority of games were decided by just one possession.

I did say last week that Week 1 is always a tough one to predict as some teams just seem to click quicker than others, while Defenses are slightly ahead of Offenses and that was shown by the number of 'under total points' games we saw last weekend. Below I have a few thoughts on Week 1, have my top and bottom five teams and then will have the picks from the Week 2 games posted below that.

Week 1 Thoughts

New Orleans Defensive Improvements: Last season we saw the New Orleans Defense give up all sorts of record numbers as the whole Saints organisation suffered after the Bounty-Gate scandal that saw a number of players and Head Coach Sean Payton suspended.

Steve Spagnula was released as Defensive Co-Ordinator and the fiery Rob Ryan came in this off-season… If the first game is anything to go by, and it usually isn’t to be honest, the Saints Defense could be serviceable enough to help take New Orleans back to the Play Offs after missing out a year ago.

There was a feel good factor in the Dome anyway on Sunday, but the Defense more than did their part by holding a potent Atlanta Offense to just 17 points and also ensuring the win by stopping them four times in the Red Zone within the last minute of regulation time.

It was a big win for the Saints, but a bigger one for a Defense that was roundly criticised for their performances last season. If New Orleans continue playing as well as they did on Sunday, the Offense will comfortably score enough points to possibly lead to 10 wins and a return to the Play Offs either as Divisional winners or a Wild Card team.

New Orleans have another test of their newly inspired Defense as they travel to Divisional rivals Tampa Bay next weekend, but it was a very positive beginning to the season for that unit.

 Potential New England Offensive Problems: They may have won the game, but the New England Patriots didn’t look comfortable with an Offense that is missing many pieces of what made them so successful in recent years.

Wes Welker had a big performance for the Denver Broncos last Thursday and Tom Brady has to be missing his Receiver already, despite decent performances from Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman.

Rob Gronkowski is still not healthy, while Aaron Hernandez will consider football the least of his worries at the moment and the Patriots do look weaker across the board on that front.

I don’t foresee a lot of problems for New England within the Division because of the weakness of the Jets and Bills, even though Buffalo had more positives coming out of Week 1, but will this Offense be able to score enough points against someone like the Denver Broncos or San Francisco 49ers, the leading contenders for the SuperBowl?

At this moment in time, I wouldn’t envision the Patriots beating either of those teams, while the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are possibly other teams in the AFC that I would place above them.

Maybe things will click the more time New England have together, and while Tom Brady is behind Center they will remain a threat, but winning shoot-outs isn’t likely for this current roster and so the pressure will shift to the Defense to make enough plays to keep the Patriots in front.

It was those Defensive plays that won the game in Buffalo, not the Offensive ones, and even last drive that set up the game winning field goal shouldn’t paper over some of the cracks

Jacksonville Jaguars have prime position for the Number 1 Pick in next year’s Draft: Wow, that was an ugly performance from the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, the team that will give those ‘lucky’ fans in London a chance to watch them next month.

The Offense was as bad as advertised and there was no real surprise for me on that front considering Blaine Gabbert is still the starter there- my only reasoning for that is because the Jaguars want the Number 1 Pick next April in the Draft and the opportunity to take Teddy Bridgewater or Tajh Boyd as the new potentially franchise Quarter Back for this ailing club.

I do respect what Kansas City have in terms of talent on their Defense, but the Jaguars were horrendous Offensively and that unit failed to score a point in the game. This week, Gabbert has been ruled out so the chance for Chad Henne, who looked ok in his starts for Jacksonville last season, will get the opportunity to put a win on the board as they travel west to take on the Oakland Raiders.

This could be the game that ends up deciding which of those teams gets the top pick in the Draft next year, but Oakland looked a lot more competitive than Jacksonville and it is hard to see the latter win on the road in that contest.

A defeat would mean the Jaguars are going to be hard to shift from having the worst record in the NFL this season and thus give the new owner, General Manager and Head Coach a chance to begin anew next season with a brand new Quarter Back to lead the team forward.

Who will stop the powerful Denver Offense? How good did Peyton Manning and the Denver Offense look last Thursday night after they settled into the game with the reigning SuperBowl Champions the Baltimore Ravens?

This looked like an Offense that was going to be tough to stop on paper, but the emergence of Julius Thomas at Tight End and the arrival of Wes Welker from New England has added more options for Manning along with Erik Decker and Demayrius Thomas.

What do Defenses do? Focus on taking away the top two Receivers and having Julius Thomas and Welker create mismatches in the middle of the field or take away the middle and hope to beat the two Wide Receivers? It just doesn’t look like a lot of good options for Defenses going forward, although one saving grace is that the Broncos don’t have a dominant running game to add to their passing options.

Even then, it is going to be very difficult for Defenses to stop the Broncos doing what they want this season for most of the games they are scheduled to play and I feel comfortable picking Denver to end with the Number 1 seed in the AFC.

Replicating the numbers Manning had in Week 1 would almost certainly see Denver reach the SuperBowl next year in New York too.

San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers could meet again to decide NFC representative in the SuperBowl: It was a fascinating game between San Francisco and Green Bay in Week 1 and there is clearly some tension between the teams after some of the late hits and scuffling we saw in that game.

The 49ers got the better of Green Bay for the third time within the last twelve months, but this was the best I have seen Green Bay play in those games and they could have won the game if the referees hadn’t botched an earlier penalty call.

Eddie Lacy could give the Packers the running game that has made their Offense one-dimensional at times last season (although that was still good enough to beat the majority of teams they faced) and that added crease makes Green Bay a tougher out than they were last season.

The Defense played better and the Packers have a schedule that could give them a Number 1 or Number 2 seed in the NFC and a chance to go deep in the Play Offs.

San Francisco also showed off an added crease to their Offense and showed even the absence of Michael Crabtree is unlikely to slow them down. Anquan Boldin had a huge game, while Colin Kaepernick showed off the arm that makes him a dangerous dual-threat Quarter Back while his chemistry with Vernon Davis has improved significantly from last year.

Both teams are going to be a tough out for anyone this season and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if this exact same game decides the NFC Championship next January.

Top Five

1. Denver Broncos: Had Denver as the team to beat in the AFC, but was still blown away by their spectacula  start to the season.

2. San Francisco 49ers: Impressive performance to hold off the Green Bay Packers and could easily represent the NFC in the SuperBowl for the second season in succession. 

3. Houston Texans: Showed heart in coming back from a 21 point deficit to beat the San Diego Chargers, although more will be expected from a Defense that was carved apart by Philip Rivers in the first half.

4. Seattle Seahawks: It was a tough game at Carolina with the early start and a tough Defense in front of them… Still, Russell Wilson made a big play and Seattle now host NFC West rivals San Francisco next Sunday primetime.

5. New Orleans Saints: A surprise to have them this high, but this Offense will score plenty of points and they could be a real threat in the NFC if the Defense steps up to the same level they showed on Sunday against Atlanta.

Bottom Five

32. Jacksonville Jaguars: It’s no surprise I consider them the worst team in the NFL as they just don’t have a lot of talented pieces anywhere on the team and look like a team that could be fighting for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft next April.

31. Cleveland Browns: There would have been a real expectation the Browns could turn a corner this season, but that was a mistake-filled start against the Dolphins and Brandon Weeden’s noose just got a little tighter.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I did expect much better from Tampa Bay this season, but they made the New York Jets look a lot better than they are and then giving away the game in the bonehead way they did just made matters all the worse.

29. Oakland Raiders: The Raiders played much better than I thought they would, but that could say more about the Indianapolis Colts than Oakland. Big game this week as they host Jacksonville and they won’t have a better chance to put a W in the column.

28. Carolina Panthers: The Defense will certainly keep them in games if they play as well as they did last Sunday, but the Offense lacked imagination and there were too many mistakes from Receivers with drops.

Week 2 Picks

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Baltimore Ravens have had ten days to sort themselves out after the embarrassing beating they took in the opening game of the season at Denver,but they should be able to get back on track against the Cleveland Browns.

What makes me take a step back on the pick though is a Cleveland Defense that is much stronger than people think and one that completely bottled up the Miami rushing game last week. Joe Haden should deal with Torrey Smith, but Baltimore will be hoping Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson don't drop as many balls as they did last week.

I also trust Joe Flacco way more than Brandon Weeden and I can't help thinking that the latter may make a couple of key mistakes that gives the Ravens the win by a Touchdown or more. Baltimore are 7-3 against the spread against Cleveland and have won 4 of their last 5 at home by at least 7 points against the Browns.

St Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The St Louis Rams are going to be a tough team to play for anyone in the NFL this season including their two NFC West rivals the 49ers and Seahawks, but I still like the Atlanta Falcons to find a way to win this one and clear the spread.

Atlanta have a very strong Offense, although Roddy White could be limited again like last week, and they have a strong record under Mike Smith following a loss by 6 points or more. However, Matt Ryan will hope for better protection against a vicious pass rush that St Louis send, although Atlanta will be given confidence with the way that Arizona moved the chains against this Defense last week.

There is also the possibility that this is closer than I imagine if Sam Bradford is protected as well as he was last week, but the Falcons are a strong home favourite. The Falcons are 21-11 against the spread in this spot, while they are 13-4 against the spread as the home favourite playing a non-Divisional rival.

St Louis were a strong road underdog under Jeff Fisher last season, but I did think this spread may have been a couple of points higher.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Both teams won their respective Division and made it to the Play Offs last season, but one could be in a very difficult spot after falling to 0-2 this week. That is not a position that too many Play Offs team would have begun the season with so the losing team will have a mountain to climb.

The Green Bay Packers should have plenty of success on the Offensive side of the game in this one, particularly with Eddie Lacy giving them an effective running game, even if it wasn't at full tilt last week against the tough 49ers Defense. I am expecting Lacy to show his talent in this one, while that should open things up for Aaron Rodgers to dissect this Washington Secondary.

I also believe the Packers have a better Defense than the San Francisco Offense made them look last week and Green Bay should be able to make a couple of big plays on that side of the ball to win this game with the cover.

The Packers are 20-10 against the spread as the home favourite over the last few seasons and they are also 12-4 against the spread coming off a straight up loss.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I was really hoping this spread would just move half a point more in the direction of the Dallas Cowboys, but I still like them to cover with the field goal head start in this game.

I know Kansas City were impressive last week, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are hardly an acid test of any teams ability- Andy Reid will also know the level of talent in the Dallas roster having competed against them for years as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles but there have been enough changes in the Cowboys in the off-season to cause problems.

Tony Romo and Dez Bryant were hurt last week, but both will play and I still think Dallas can find some success with their Offense, even if the Chiefs Defense is under-rated. I also think Monte Kiffin's new look Defense will make it difficult for Alex Smith to keep the chains moving, particularly if Dallas are as effective bottling up Jamaal Charles as they were with the Giants running game last week.

I don't imagine a lot of points to be scored but Dallas have the more talent in my opinion as long as they can steer clear of mistakes that Kansas City are unlikely to make. Dallas are also 12-5 against the spread as the road underdog in recent years, while the Chiefs are a terrible 3-14 against the spread as the home favourite.

Add in the fact that Kansas City will be playing at Philadelphia in a big game for Andy Reid in four days time, and Dallas may just surprise.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: Back to back road games is always tough in the NFL, but it is even tougher when both of those road games are against Divisional rivals which is what faces the Minnesota Vikings this week.

Even with teams loading the box to stop Adrian Peterson, Christian Ponder continues to struggle at Quartet Back, but I am expecting a much better effort from Minnesota than they had last week in Detroit.

The Defense is also good enough to give Jay Cutler and the Chicago Offense some problems and I do think this game is going to be closer than the spread indicates. However, I don't trust Ponder enough to put down more than a unit, especially with their poor recent record on the road against the Bears, but I also don't believe Chicago were as fluent on Offense last week to think they should be giving up more than a field goal in this one.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: This is the spread of the week where I can't understand why the New Orleans Saints are not favoured by at least 6 points to win this game, even it is on the road.

The Saints are a team that can put up a lot of points when they are firing and Tampa Bay may just struggle to keep up if Josh Freeman cannot get his head into the game. A bonehead play cost them the chance of winning the game last week, but they didn't show enough on Offense throughout the game, although the Saints Defense isn't even close to being as effective as the New York Jets Defense.

Even so, Drew Brees is likely going to make the bigger plays than Freeman, while the Saints are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 visits to Tampa Bay.

Denver Broncos @ New York Giants Pick: This looks like a game where both teams will be able to move the chains up and down the field all day, but I trust big brother Peyton to get the better of Eli for the third time in a row.

Both Defenses can be passed against, but I just believe the Broncos are less likely to make critical mistakes that end up costing them the game.

I also think the additional rest time for the Broncos could prove critical in the game, while I believe Denver's Offense is less likely to be stopped in the game of the two units. The Giants Secondary is very attackable and while that wasn't shown up by Dallas last week, I am expecting a lot more from the Broncos and I like them to win this game by a Touchdown.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 3 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (3 Units)
Denver Broncos - 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

United Corner- Month Review, Champions League Group Stage, Transfer Window (September 10th)

   United Corner- First month of the Premier League Season, Champions League Group Stage Draw, Transfer Window Closing (September 10)





So we have come through the first month of the Premier League season and are just about to get through a two week international period which makes for a good time to review the August period for Manchester United. Let's face facts, this always expected to be a tough start to the League campaign after the fixture list didn't fall kindly back in June and my personal expectation was that we may only end up coming out of the first three games with just three points on the board.

I thought we would likely draw all three games at Swansea, at home against Chelsea and at Anfield so techinically the side have surpassed the expectations that I had by picking up four points from those games.

The performances have been steady, if not spectacular so far, but there seems to have been a hugely negative reaction to the defeat at Anfield- I am certainly never happy lose to the lot from down the M62, but this has proved to be a difficult fixture for United in recent seasons so I was a little surprised that David Moyes seemed to get as much criticism for the result as he did.

United have lost 4 of their last 6 previous visits to Anfield before this season and we all know that they are going to raise their game when United do turn up for their game there. The bigger issue may have been the lack of chances United created in their last two League games and even the 1-4 result at Swansea was highly flattering thanks to some superb finishing from both Robin Van Persie and Danny Welbeck.

It has to also be put into context that United earned four points from these same three games last season so it hasn't been a bad start, if not the firing on all cylinders that some would have wanted to see. Outside of the visit to the Etihad Stadium, next month United have a much more negotiable Premier League schedule and I would expect another six further points on the board at the end of the next three games, while David Moyes will have had more time to put his stamp on the team.


One thing that has been learnt from the opening three games of the League season is the much fawning over the likes of Michael Carrick and Tom Cleverley are seriously misplaced.

I haven't been a fan of Michael Carrick for a few seasons now and will never hide that opinion- there are a lot of fans out there that love to throw statistics around when it comes to Carrick as if that validates their opinion on what a good player he is for United... The common one is his pass completion rate or number of passes he makes in a game, but how many of those are the probing passes that United desperately need from the centre of the park?

Every time I watch United, Carrick makes a lot of his passes sideways or backwards, while he hasn't put his stamp on any game in a way we have become accustomed from our centre midfielders through the years. Maybe I am wrong, but I would love to know which games Carrick has turned when United are losing or chasing an equaliser, while I am not still sure what exactly he does for the team.

He doesn't create enough chances, is regularly not in a great position in defensive areas and I cannot fathom why he is rated so highly. Can't believe it's not Scholes? Bloody hell, I can!!

One thing I will give Carrick is maybe he would be a much more functioning player if he had someone decent to sit alongside him in the middle of the park and that is when I turn to Tom Cleverley- I read some remarkable comments about how he dominated the game against Chelsea at Old Trafford, but maybe I missed something while watching a game where Chelsea sat back and allowed United to have the ball... It must have been all the fantastic chances he created in that match that had people falling over themselves to say how good he was, but I didn't see it.

Cleveley's positioning is absolutely shocking and that is a huge crime for a centre midfield player- he never demands the ball when United are losing a game, rarely picks up and drives the ball forward and doesn't score enough goals. Whereas I could argue that Carrick would get into a couple of the midfields of sides that finished in the four positions below United last season, Cleverley would not as far as I am concerned.

He could be a useful squad player that can come in when we have home games against the lesser teams in the Premier League/Europe to give our starters some time to rest, but there is no way Cleverley should be first choice in that centre midfield.

As much as Anderson has his critics, he at least offers some drive in the middle of the park when he hasn't gorged himself on cheeseburgers, and it is a big problem in the middle of our team. In the last couple of League games, neither Carrick nor Cleverley got into a position on the field to support the front two players and neither is comfortable moving forward with the ball.

This is an area of the pitch that United fans have been desperate to see some improvements over the last few seasons and that is because none of the midfielders really inspire with their play and we do need new faces in those areas to really kick on as a team while the rest of our rivals have strengthened this summer.


Over the last few seasons, Manchester United have avoided the really awkward Group Stage in the Champions League, even if we did somehow manage to mess up a Group containing Basel, Otelul Galati and Benfica a couple of seasons ago, but it looks a much more difficult Group to come through this time around.

I have been surprised that so many people have labelled this section as an 'easy' one for United to come through and its seems I have a lot more respect for Shakhtar Donetsk, Real Sociedad and Bayer Leverkusen than many others do.

I am heartened by the fact that Shakhtar no longer have a couple of key performers from the team that knocked out Chelsea at this stage last season, but technically they looked a strong side and they will pose problems, particularly in the Ukraine. I don't know a lot about Bayer Leverkusen, but any team that finishes in the top three in Germany has to be afforded some respect, while Real Sociedad have a young team that won't be afraid of playing anywhere.

You can't under-estimate Sociedad after seeing another young Basque side outplay United over two legs a couple of seasons ago in the Europa League- Athletic Bilbao were technically brilliant in both of those games a couple of years ago and I can definitely see Real Sociedad causing plenty of problems for United in both games.

However, in saying all that, I do expect United to win all three home games against these sides, with Sociedad being the most difficult of those games. That should leave the team needing just a point from one of their three away games and it would be a surprise if they couldn't get that, but I certainly think the Group won't be the cakewalk that some seemed to think after it was made.


It has been a really disappointing summer when it comes to the transfer activity at Old Trafford, but I think it has been made worse by the disastrous policy taken on by Ed Woodward and the club with high-profile rejections and what can only be described as a 'scattergun' approach to purchasing new players.

I was very happy that David Moyes had identified the centre of midfield as a weak spot in the squad as most fans have been calling for reinforcements there over the last few years. However, it seemed that United were stuck in not being entirely sure how they were going to resolve that problem.

The signing of Maruoane Fellaini is not one that I am against like some people seemed to be, although I would have liked someone more creative to also have been brought into the squad so I was a little surprised that United didn't make a move for Mezit Ozul. What made the move for Fellaini altogether stranger was the ridiculously small bid that was initially made for the Belgian and Leighton Baines (only half a million less than United ended up paying for Fellaini), while David Moyes would have been aware of the 23 million pound release clause in the Fellaini contract that could have been activated before August.

What made things look a little more strange were the bids for Ander Herrera and even more bizarrely for Samir Khedira, the latter coming with just hours of the transfer window closing remaining.There just doesn't seem to have a been a real plan of identifying targets and making sure the club went out to get them as they spent far too much time chasing Cesc Fabregas.

Ed Woodward's reputation has been tarnished in his first foray into the transfer market, but I would be hopeful that he has learnt something and we will see more productive attempts to strengthen the squad coming in January and next summer.


I've read a few times over the last two weeks that David Moyes has not won a game as manager at Old Trafford, Anfield, Stamford Bridge or the Emirates Stadium, but expect those people that love talking about that to be silenced in the next game against Crystal Palace on Saturday after the international break.

However, I think there is some real importance that needs to be placed on the home game against Liverpool in the Capital One Cup as I think it will relieve a lot of pressure on Moyes if he can lead the side to a win in one of the big games to begin this season.

Don't misunderstand me- I would love that win to come at the Etihad Stadium where United will be visiting three days before we play Liverpool, but it  is a big ask to win there for a second year in a row and I would settle for a draw from that game.

The Liverpool Cup game would be at the end of a run where United have played Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City in the Premier League and there is every chance that United won't have a win in those games so the League Cup is going to have extra-importance for Moyes.

United have a real chance to go on a run in the League with games against Palace, West Brom, Southampton and Stoke at Old Trafford and trips to Manchester City, Sunderland and Fulham and I would be very happy if United pick up more than 18 points from those games, but I think a win over Liverpool in the League Cup will at least take away the pressure that will continue to build on Moyes as we reach the next 'big' game against Arsenal on November 10.

Some 'fans' are already on the manager's back for a loss at Anfield, but a win in over our old rivals will at least keep them quiet as they continue sharpening their knives in the corner... However, a loss to City and then in the League Cup will have these same 'fans' very much in the light with radios and the media all joining the outcry and that is the last thing Moyes needs just 4 months into the job at Old Trafford.

US Open Men's Final Pick 2013- Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal (September 9th)

It was a fascinating Final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka yesterday and I am expecting no less from Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the men's Final which will take place on Monday afternoon.

Both players will have their supporters in this one and those that backed Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament would have a chance to lay off their units, although I am still of the belief that Nadal will come out on top in this one.


Whenever I have watched Rafael Nadal in the last two weeks, I have been impressed with his performances and I  have been reminded of the way he blitzed his way through the draw in 2010 when he won his sole US Open title. In that Final, Rafael Nadal took care of a tired Novak Djokovic in four sets and it will be interesting to see how the World Number 1 responds to his five set match against Stanislas Wawrinka on Saturday afternoon.

Wawrinka gave Djokovic almost everything he could handle and we saw a flat Djokovic come out in the Wimbledon Final off a similar rest period back in July- if he is lacking intensity in this one, he will be given a torrid time by someone like Nadal that will play every point hard and who will not give the Serb an easy way into the match.

Like in 2010, Nadal has looked very effective behind his serve and he is playing with an aggression that could break through the Djokovic defences in this one. The World Number 1 has lost a number of big matches since winning the Grand Slam at the Australian Open last January and that is making it hard for me to shake the belief that Nadal will prove too strong.

However, Djokovic is probably the best fighter on the Tour when things are going against him and he should really have beaten Nadal at the French Open earlier this season, but that loss coupled with the one in Montreal means the Spaniard has begun to get the better of this rivalry again.

The extra aggression that Nadal has shown, plus the protection of his own serve being stronger in the tournament means I have a feeling he will prove too good for Djokovic and win his second Grand Slam since returning to the Tour in February.

If Djokovic's backhand is working, it could be another close match between these two, but that shot has not been at its best in the tournament so far and unless there is a marked improvement in this one then it is hard to see the Serb come through. I hope we see another good Final between the two, but I believe it will be decided in four sets in favour of Rafael Nadal.


MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-39, - 11.22 Units (114 Units Staked, - 9.84% Yield)

US Open Women's Final Pick 2013- Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka (September 8th)

Both the women's and men's events will be decided by the top two seeds in the draw this year and the Sunday has been reserved for the women's Final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka.


There is no doubt in my mind that Serena Williams is capable of wiping the floor with any opponent she plays on any given day and she is going to begin this Final as a big favourite considering the form she has shown in the last two weeks.

If she brings that into the Final, Serena should win this one very comfortably, especially if Victoria Azarenka serves as poorly as she had over the last few matches. If Azarenka can improve that area of her game, she has shown she can match Williams off the ground and some of their matches over the last year have been close with the odd blowout for Serena thrown in.

Azarenka has power and accuracy, but most important of all, she has the mental belief that she is capable of hanging around with Williams and all of those factors could make this a closer Final than some people may think. Of course, Azarenka cannot be as generous in allowing her serve to fall as she has been in the last couple of matches because she just won't get a lot of chances on Williams' serve if the American is serving as well as she had.

I also am expecting Serena to have some nerves as she knows the significance of winning more Grand Slams to cement her legacy as one of the best, if not the best, female player to have ever played, while she will also want to be the player that picked up 2 Grand Slam tittles this year. A loss means Azarenka is the player with 2 Grand Slams to finish 2013 and there is the feeling that the World Number 2 has unfinished business having served for the title a year ago.

Azarenka has won the last 2 matches on the hard courts between the players and I do think she is mentally focused on winning this match- whether she has enough quality over two/three hours to actually get through is another matter, but taking 4.5 games on the underdog looks a lot considering how close their matches on the hard courts have been. She has to serve better, in case you haven't gathered that from this post above, but I believe this is the match Azarenka has been focusing on for two weeks and I expect a full performance from her.

I hope she can pull the win as my outright choice at the start of the tournament, but I believe Azarenka can make a Final of this and nerves to perhaps affect Serena if the World Number 2 can stick with her in the early goings.


MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-38, - 9.22 Units (112 Units Staked, - 8.23% Yield)

US Open Day 13 Picks- Men's Semi Finals 2013 (September 7th)

The US Open has reached the business end of the final Grand Slam tournament of the season and we still look on course to see the Final that everyone would have wanted at the start of the event as Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal need to win one more match to set that Final.

I was expecting Djokovic to have the more difficult Semi Final today and, while that is still the case in my opinion, I don't think many people would have predicted Stanislas Wawrinka to be the last man standing in the Serb's way for that place in the Final.

This is a big tournament for Djokovic to underline the fact that he is still the World Number 1- even though he won't lose that position as long as he reaches the Final, even a defeat in that match to Rafael Nadal will change the perception of most people as to who the real World Number 1 is.

Nadal is likely to finish the season in the top spot in the Rankings no matter how this tournament ends now as he has no points to defend in the final two months of the season and will be adding points from the World Tour Championships as well as two Masters events in Shanghai and Paris. It has been a fantastic season for the Spaniard since returning to the Tour last February, but both he and Djokovic will be looking for their second Grand Slam title of the season and that will be the most important statistic that either player would like to look back on in 2013.

Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Stanislas Wawrinka: The first Semi Final should be a fascinating one to watch as long as Stanislas Wawrinka can bring in the form that saw him push Novak Djokovic all the way at the Australian Open back in January and the form that saw him blitz Andy Murray in the Quarter Final a couple of days ago.

Of course there will be some nerves for the Swiss man as he has never reached this stage of a Grand Slam before and he may also feel there won't be too many more chances for him to reach the Final of a major. Those factors can make a player tight and struggle to find their form, but Wawrinka does have a lot of tools in his game that can cause problems for Djokovic in this one.

Wawrinka has a big serve that can set up points and he is capable of ripping the ball off both wings on the ground, while Djokovic doesn't have a dominating serve himself which should give the Swiss player chances to break. With Djokovic's return game, there are bound to be plenty of breaks of serve in this one, after they combined for 14 breaks of serve in five sets back at the Australian Open.

You have to believe the experience of Djokovic of winning majors will give him the edge in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he drops his second set of the tournament on his way through to the Final.

Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Richard Gasquet: There is a video on YouTube where you can see Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet taking on one another in an under-14 tournament that Gasquet wins in three sets.

That is about as much success as the Frenchman has had against Nadal with his sole win on the professional circuit coming in their first meeting back in 2003 after Nadal was forced to pull out of the match after the first set.

Rafael Nadal has won 10 straight matches since that match on the Challenger circuit and he has only lost 4 sets in that time and his form during this tournament suggests this will likely end in another straight sets win for the Spaniard.

He has yet to be broken in the tournament and Richard Gasquet has come through two tough five set matches in a row and I can see him losing heart if he doesn't win the first set. If Nadal can take that one, I believe he will be able to move away from Gasquet as the match develops and I expect Nadal to come through with a 64, 62, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.60 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-36, - 6.22 Units (109 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)