On another day, the Tennis Picks could easily have ended with a 0-4 record on Monday, but some luck landed in favour of the selections and the final 3-1 return is a positive one.
Naomi Osaka should have won her match in all honesty- it was a miss while leading 4-2 in the final set tie-breaker that turned the match against her, but she won 7 more points than Peyton Stearns and it is yet another unfortunate loss suffered since returning to the Tour.
A final set 6-1 score helped Hubert Hurkacz cover, despite dropping the second set by the same scoreline. He won the first set 6-3, but served at 5-1 before seemingly losing his way, although the late rally saved the Pick.
Both Jannik Sinner and Mirra Andreeva had tough tests before covering big numbers of their own, but you have to be honest and appreciate some of the fortune that was needed.
It puts the Rome Masters in a decent spot, but using that luck and building on it is the key to ensure a winning tournament ahead of the French Open. On Tuesday there is another loaded schedule to get through, but two Picks have stood out from the rest and those can be read below.
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Arthur Fils: This looks a quality Fourth Round match and one that will offer the French crowd something as they look for the next stars who will push to try and win the French Open in the years ahead. This match is taking place at the Rome Masters, but the second Grand Slam of the season is fast approaching and there has been plenty to like about the performances of Arthur Fils.
The young Frenchman has yet to win a main draw match at the French Open, but his development on the clay courts looks pretty impressive in 2025. He reached the Final in Monte Carlo, so will know how it feels like performing on the red dirt in friendly environments, and Arthur Fils has been able to follow that up with a Semi Final run in Barcelona and put two more wins on the board in Rome.
Two of the three clay court defeats this season have been against Carlos Alcaraz, the defending French Open Champion, and that can only encourage the home fans to really believe in Arthur Fils and his capabalities.
Beating the Runner Up from the 2024 French Open Final can only increase that confidence, but this a significant test for Arthur Fils against one of the top clay courters on the Tour.
It has not been the best few weeks on the surface for Alexander Zverev, but he won another title in Munich and the World Number 2 will most definitely feel he is peaking as we approach the French Open. His defeats to Matteo Berrettini and Francisco Cerundolo on the European clay have been in close matches and there remains a lot to like about the numbers that Alexander Zverev is producing on the red dirt.
He will have a respect for the capabilities of Arthur Fils and it was the youngster who won their match in Miami in March, while they are 1-1 in previous clay court matches.
The last of those was also won by Fils, but he needed to save 21/22 Break Points played that day and took almost all of the chances that he was able to generate on the return. Overall there has been a clear edge in the serving numbers in favour of Alexander Zverev and that could be key for the higher Ranked player to come through with a win and earn his place in the Quarter Final.
Arthur Fils has had some big wins on the clay already this season, which deserve a lot of respect, but Alexander Zverev may edge this one in three sets.
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Tommy Paul: Both of these players are more comfortable on the faster surfaces, but that is not to say that Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur have not shown solid form on the clay courts.
The proof is that this match is being played in the Fourth Round and the two players have produced some very solid numbers on the surface over the last fifteen months. It should mean two confident players are heading out to the court in Rome, although the extra belief may be with Alex De Minaur having never been beaten by Tommy Paul on the pro Tour.
The Australian has produced some very solid numbers on the clay courts in 2025 and his three losses have been against Lorenzo Musetti (twice) and Carlos Alcaraz. Those are two players that are expected to have deep runs at the French Open and so De Minaur has to feel his current level is decent enough to push through to the second week of the Grand Slam that begins at the end of the month.
Over the last twelve months, Alex De Minaur has found improvement in his serve and that has entrenched him inside the top 10 of the World Rankings. That improvement has also been clear on the clay this season and it makes the World Number 8 dangerous with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play on the return.
Tommy Paul also deserves his credit for the way he has become a solid clay courter, but that has yet to be tested when playing some of the stronger players on the Tour.
The key to the match is that Alex De Minaur looks to be the superior return player and that may give him the edge at key moments.
Five wins from five previous meetings against Tommy Paul has really been based on the fact that Alex De Minaur has been the much better return player in those matches. The last three have needed to be decided over the distance, but they have not played for a couple of years and the feeling is that Alex De Minaur has made the clearer improvements in that time.
This should mean Alex De Minaur is comfortable enough in the match up and he can do enough to cover this handicap mark on his way to another clay court Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Rome Update: 9-6, + 1.67 Units (15 Units Staked, + 11.13% Yield)
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