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Wednesday, 28 May 2025

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 28th May)

Wow, six Picks, six losers, and the start of the second Grand Slam of the 2025 season could not have gone any worse.

The most frustrating part is how incredible some of the performances have been- players moving into a position to win sets/matches and suddenly deciding that they don't want to be on the court has really added to the irritation around the manner in which the selections have fallen into a pit.

Daniil Medvedev was leading 4-2 in the first set against an opponent who has never won a set against him, never mind a match, but absolutely lost all focus in losing nine of the next ten games.

Even then he had a chance to cover in the fifth set when refocusing, but it was too late and that is yet another selection in which the player has not only failed to cover, but has lost outright as a pretty strong favourite.

All things considered, the next two days feels important- I have regularly mentioned the Australian Open 2024 when the tournament kiboshed my entire season and that was another in which strange results continued to dump on the selections made. Much like the opening in Paris, that tournament in Melbourne featured so many matches that had players right on the brink of becoming a winning selection, but then falling apart.

With that in mind, the Second Round is important here and the numbers need to start moving in a positive direction and perhaps even significantly.

If not, the next two weeks will still see me releasing my thoughts on each day at the Grand Slam, but I am refusing to throw what has been a positive year under the bus when outside factors are playing such a big part in the outcome of the selections.

So it will either be a change of luck, or it will be a tournament where a watching interest will be the outcome and the next official Tennis Picks will be made from the grass court season.

I said after Day 1 things can only get better, but the reality is that I am not prepared for them to get significantly worse before shutting it down at this event.


Victoria Mboko - 1.5 games v Eva Lys: The tennis world is always ready for the next breakthrough star and there is a feeling that 18 year old Canadian Victoria Mboko is ready to move her career forward on the WTA Tour.

There are other young players out there who have a bigger reputation right now, but Mboko has begun to earn some of the limelight too and winning four matches at the French Open can only be a positive for her. In recent months there have been plenty of wins away from the main WTA Tour, but three Qualifying wins and a success in the First Round without dropping a set has to give Victoria Mboko a lot of belief in her own game.

This looks to be another tough test when going up against Eva Lys, who upset Peyton Stearns in the First Round.

The 23 year old German does have plenty of clay court experience, but she will need to back up that level produced in the crushing win over Stearns and consistency to do that may be beyond Eva Lys. She will certainly not want to offer up too many looks at the second serve against an aggressive player like Victoria Mboko, while the amount of wins produced by the latter will make her believe.

Further to that, Mboko was able to take a set from Coco Gauff in Rome earlier this month, a player right amongst the favourites to win the title here.

Victoria Mboko has not only made hay by beating those she is expected to, but she has a 5-3 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts prior to the French Open. Her opening win has added to that collection and Victoria Mboko may have the confidence to edge past Eva Lys, even if the latter is able to push her into a deciding set.


Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Anna Bondar: The World Number 14 may not have faced too many issues coming through her First Round match, but Elina Svitolina is also going to be experienced enough to know that her own level will have to be lifted as she moves through the draw at Roland Garros.

The Second Round match looks very winnable on paper, but Svitolina will have a respect for Anna Bondar who has been on the Tour for long enough to avoid being overwhelmed by the occasion.

Anna Bondar had hit the top 50 of the World Rankings in July 2022, but it has been tough for her to remain competitive at the main WTA level. At the same time, the Hungarian has found the drop a lot more comfortable to manage and she has won titles below the main Tour this season and on this surface, which is deserving of respect.

In reality Anna Bondar has not really faced opponents of this level all too often in the last couple of years and it is a considerable step up. That step looks all the tougher when you think of how well Elina Svitolina has played in the build up to the French Open with one title secured and a Quarter Final and Semi Final run under her belt at the two Masters tournaments played.

Being an honorary Frenchwoman will help with the crowd firmly behind Elina Svitolina every time she steps on the court and that is another factor landing in her favour in this Second Round match.

In her clay court matches in 2025, Elina Svitolina has been really strong behind the serve and that has allowed her return to really put the pressure on opponents. If she can continue serving as she has been, Svitolina should be able to put the pressure on Anna Bondar and that could lead to some cracks as the Seeded player moves through with a cover of this line set.


Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 games v Caroline Dolehide: Both of these players had to battle through three setters in the opening Round, but both coulld have taken some confidence from the fact they were able to get through in the manner that they did.

Caroline Dolehide and Jelena Ostapenko dropped the opening set at the French Open before rallying and that should give the pair confidence ahead of this match.

The former may actually feel that there is an upset potential around this match having perhaps been the more consistent player on the clay over the last couple of years. The results have not always backed that up for Caroline Dolehide and she has not really competed at the top, top level in that time, which is backed up by the fact she has a 3-7 record on the clay when facing top 50 Ranked players.

In saying that, she has won three matches and Carolina Dolehide will know that there is every chance that Jelena Ostapenko will come out in a bad mood and just start spraying losing shots all over the court.

Ten times Jelena Ostapenko has played at the French Open and she has only surpassed the Second Round twice in that run- one of those ended in the Third Round so you may not feel this is a great tournament for the Latvian.

However, the other time Ostapenko was able to move past the Second Round was in 2017 when she went on to lift the French Open title and the World Number 21 also won a big event in Stuttgart in April during which she beat Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

Jelena Ostapenko is 1-2 since winning that title in Germany and she is not always capable of showing the patience you can need on a clay court. After a poor start to the tournament, Ostapenko is perhaps not the most appealing player to back, but a decent first serve and an aggressive return gives her an opportunity.

You have to respect Caroline Dolehide, but her serve has been vulnerable in those matches against top 50 Ranked players and she has not always been the most convincing of return players.

It is difficult to trust Ostapenko to produce her best tennis on any given day, but the momentum of the First Round win should carry over and the higher Ranked player should have the breaks of serve needed to move past this line when all is said and done.


Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Emma Raducanu: All four previous matches between these players have been won by Iga Swiatek, although it is something of a surprise to note that the two clay meetings have been much more competitive than the two hard court match ups.

In four hard court sets, Emma Raducanu has managed to win just five games, including just the single game when these two met at the Australian Open back in January.

However, it has been a different story on the clay, despite this long being Iga Swiatek's favoured surface, and in the four sets on this surface, Emma Raducanu has managed to win seventeen games. Those two matches were both played in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court, while the two hard court defeats have been outside and that may be an additional factor when these two face off in the Second Round at the French Open.

Emma Raducanu is playing through the pain, but showed some grit and determination which has arguably been missing in her young career. This should bode well for the former US Open Champion who has never really got back to those heights and Emma Raducanu will be looking to show how much she has learned from the humbling loss in Melbourne.

It is still a tough task, especially when not operating at 100%, even if Iga Swiatek is struggling to find her best level.

The defending Champion came through a couple of tough moments in what turned out to be a relatively straight-forward First Round win, but Swiatek will know that better has to come if she is going to win the French Open for a fourth year in a row.

Motivation will not be hard to find for Emma Raducanu, but she is still a significant underdog on this surface and has been on the wrong end of a couple of heavy losses over the last month. She will need to serve well and hope Iga Swiatek is having an off day, but that is going to be perhaps asking too much when you note that the Pole's worst results on the clay this season have been against top 20 Ranked opponents.

Outside of that, Iga Swiatek has produced better numbers- they may not have gotten up to the levels shown in recent years, but they are still solid enough and Swiatek may end up rolling through this match to move clear of the handicap mark set.


Diana Shnaider - 3.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: The First Round can be a difficult one to negotiate at the Grand Slam events with the pressure that is placed on the top Seeds and that may have contributed to the slow start made by Diana Shnaider. By the end she was rolling, but this is a considerable step up for the World Number 12 and Diana Schnaider is going to have to be that much more solid to negotiate the test.

Next up is Dayana Yastremska who had a huge run to the Australian Open Semi Final in 2024, but who has now dropped back into World Number 48.

The Ukrainian is capable of the clay courts, but Dayana Yastremska has tended to beat those she is expected to beat and lose to those that she is not.

Backing that up is the fact that her last seven matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts have all ended in defeat, including all three played in 2025. In those defeats, Dayana Yastremska has simply not been able to look after her serve and that puts a lot of pressure on the return game, which has ultimately led to those defeats.

Beating a Wild Card in the First Round and in impressive fashion will give Dayana Yastremska confidence, but Diana Shnaider is playing very well on the clay courts and closing the gap between them will be tough.

Much will depend on the Shnaider serve, and that has been an improving weapon for the 21 year old over the last couple of years. Those numbers have looked stronger on the clay court compared with last year and it gives Diana Shnaider the edge in this match, especially with what feels like a more consistent return game to go with it.

In their sole previous meeting on the Tour, Diana Shnaider thumped Dayana Yastremska for the loss of just four games on a grass court- the youngster is still developing her experience of being favoured in Grand Slam event matches and so this is expected to be closer, but with the higher Ranked player capable of winning and covering the handicap on her way to the Third Round.


Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Nuno Borges: In the last three French Open tournaments played, Casper Ruud has reached the Final twice and the Semi Final so suffice to say he is pretty happy with the conditions in Paris. Since 2022, you would have to consider Ruud right amongst the very best players on the clay courts, although the opportunity to win a major title is always going to be tough to take considering some of the other favourites in and amongst the draw.

He made a solid start to the latest bid to win the French Open and Casper Ruud is a strong favourite to come through this Second Round match.

A title was won in Madrid and Casper Ruud has reached the Quarter Final at both Barcelona and Rome events, although the stunning beatdown given to him by Jannik Sinner may have left one or two scars. That is something that could be in play the further we move into the tournament, but Casper Ruud should feel he is playing well enough to negotiate the early Rounds with the minimum of fuss.

Next up is Nuno Borges who reached the top 30 in the World Rankings just last September, but who has struggled for any kind of clay court consistency in 2025. He has an 8-7 record after the First Round win, but Nuno Borges found himself in a deep hole at two sets down against a Qualifier.

Turning that around has to give any player belief, but this is a considerable step up for Nuno Borges who has struggled to hold serve in matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts this season. He did beat an injured Holger Rune at the Monte Carlo Masters, but you cannot ignore the injury nor the fact that Nuno Borges won just two games a couple of Rounds later against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

A competitive set or two cannot be ruled out, but you have to believe Casper Ruud will be able to get the better of them with his superior serve and the likely help he will get when attacking the Borges serve. There should also be a moment when Ruud is able to move through the gears and stack the games together and that could see the World Number 8 begin to push towards clearing this handicap.

Their sole previous meeting saw Casper Ruud win 6-3, 6-2 on a hard court last year and his superior clay court tennis ability should see the Norwegian come through with a strong result on the scoreboard against Nuno Borges again.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: It is never ideal having to dig deep and come through an opening Grand Slam match in five sets, but doing so from two sets behind might just offer some momentum to take into the tournament. That is what Miomir Kecmanovic has to be hoping having gotten the better of a solid clay courter in Sebastian Baez in the First Round.

The test for the World Number 46 is recovering and preparing to face a hostile crowd when taking on one of the French players in the draw.

He is also going to be facing an opponent in Quentin Halys who benefited from a mid-match retirement in the First Round and that should mean the home player is in better physical condition to compete. It should be a boost, along with the crowd support, but Halys still has something to prove after an incredibly underwhelming build up towards the French Open.

The 2-5 record prior to the start of Roland Garros is one thing, but Quentin Halys had also taken in a couple of Challenger events this past six weeks and still could not turn his form around. He has one top 100 Ranked win on the clay this season and Quentin Halys has really been struggling on the return of serve, which has placed him under duress.

Miomir Kecmanovic has hardly been ripping up trees in his own preparation, but did take in the Challenger in Estoril and reached the Semi Final at that event. The clay court losses he has suffered feel much more reasonable compared with Quentin Halys, who has been beaten in some disappointing matches, and this could indicate that the narrow favourite is deserving of his position.

If it was not for the First Round matches ending in different ways for the two players, you have to believe Miomir Kecmanovic would be a stronger favourite here. Even then, he looks worthy of backing to make his way into the Third Round and Kecmanovic may just break a few home hearts on the way.


Holger Rune - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: Any player who has won thirty-two clay court matches this season at a 74% strike rate has to be respected, even if Emilio Nava has spent the majority of that time facing opponents Ranked outside of the top 100. Winning does breed confidence and the 23 year old American was able to beat one of those players in the First Round at Roland Garros and in straight sets too.

Prior to the tournament beginning, Wild Card Emilio Nava had lost four of five clay court matches played and so the opening win here in the French capital will certainly have him feeling a whole lot better.

And he will need to be a whole lot better when taking on one of the top ten Seeds in the men's tournament and a player who won a significant title in Barcelona in preparation for the second Grand Slam of the season.

Holger Rune has reached the second week in each of his last three appearances at the French Open and has twice been as far as the Quarter Final to underline his effectiveness and comfort on the clay.

Dropping the first set in the First Round was followed by an increasingly dominant Holger Rune rolling through the gears and a solid server could become very dangerous with a bit more consistency on the return. It is a part of his game that needs a bit of development on the clay courts, but Rune may be able to get into the return games in this Second Round match and his eventual quality should tell.

One of the issues Holger Rune has had in his relatively young career is making matches harder than they should be and that makes it tough to cover lines like the one that has been set in this Second Round match. However, he will know the Emilio Nava game, which will help, and the American's serve has been something of a vulnerability when he has stepped up to face a top 100 Ranked opponent.

A couple of competitive sets cannot be ruled out and it would not be a big surprise if Emilio Nava takes one, but Holger Rune showed in the First Round that he can get stronger within matches and that may see him take this one away from the less experienced player standing across the other side of the net.

MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jelena Ostapenko - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Diana Shnaider - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Holger Rune - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 0-6, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

1 comment:

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