French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 30th May)

There are just some tournaments that seem to fly in the face of 'normal' and it really feels like something odd is happening at the French Open, especially through the first week of the tournament.

Regardless of how much the top players dominate a match, it is like the lower Ranked guys or underdogs have been given a boost in power and that they are able to play the big points that much better than those who have been picking up titles and operating in the higher echelons of the sport.

Case in point- Day 5 proved to be another awfully frustrating day in which nothing is seemingly as it should be.

Two massive favourites blew 2-0 lead to be downed in five sets (Alex De Minaur being one of those), while another, Arthur Fils, only just about hung on a fifth set decider having allowed his opponent to recover from two sets down as well.

Or how about two players winning 31 and 28 points more than their opponents, but going 1-1 in terms of covering the same line- Alexander Zverev managed a late break to do that, but Andrey Rublev crushed Adam Walton everywhere barring the scoreboard. While both struggled, Jannik Sinner won 29 more points than Richard Gasquet and covered his bigger line set, but for the Tennis Picks the 1-1 from those two players mentioned has added to the tournament following the 2024 Australian Open in finding a way to have losing selections when everything has pointed to the match ending on the winning side.

It has been the story of the French Open and it makes little sense to understand- the numbers, in this case, are not being backed up by the final scores and the frustration about that is setting in.

You can accept losing selections, that will happen over the course of a tournament and over the course of the year, but this has all of the hallmarks of what happened in Australia last year when the tournament just trended in a negative direction and against all sense or reason.

Over the last three or four days, there have been a number of matches that have drifted away from a strong position and that is not something that can continue to happen without thinking about shutting down the selections and clearing the mind for the grass court campaign and run through Wimbledon.

It was not only the 2-3 record, but what has really frustrated me over the last couple of days is the absolute hardship that any winner has had, and the shocking way some of the losers have come in.

To sum it up, Jack Draper's miss by a single game.

Not only did he have 22 Break Points compared with Gael Monfils, but in the fourth set those numbers were 13 and 3, but take a guess who struck first and who had to fight back and barely miss any covering opportunity?! It has been happening time and again in this tournament, and the fact is that he won 27 more points in the match and was still only able to win by a six game margin.

Ultimately that is just annoying me, like it did in Melbourne a little under eighteen months ago and the lesson has been learned that some tournaments simply do not make any sense and it is no point trying to work them out.

Even the winning selections are in matches where players have barely covered, despite absolutely crushing opponents, while the Andrey Rublev missed cover was another joke if I am being honest. He could not have been any more on top and that match would end with a much, much more comfortable winning margin if played the same way, but just on another day.

There is so much of a season to go and I will continue to have some thoughts on upcoming matches, which will be researched as normal, and perhaps this Bizzaro World of the Roland Garros tournament will begin to make more sense.

But the reality is I am not prepared to blow the season work when there is clearly something amiss right now and now with so much tennis left to play in 2025.

Sebastian Korda v Frances Tiafoe: Two American players meet in the Third Round at the French Open and with what will feel like a big opportunity to reach the second week at a Grand Slam where they perhaps hold the lowest expectations.

Neither Sebastian Korda nor Frances Tiafoe can really point to a lot of quality form on the European clay courts and the warm up events have been about what is to be expected from them.

Both had losing records on the European clay, but Sebastian Korda can at least say that three of his four losses have been against top 30 Ranked opponents, including against solid clay competitors in Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud. The exception was a loss to Jaume Munar, but Frances Tiafoe has also lost to the Spaniard since arriving in Europe and the World Number 16 had lost his previous three clay court matches to those Ranked Number 44 or lower.

With that in mind, Sebastian Korda may feel he has been a victim of poor draws rather than upsets and he has beaten Frances Tiafoe in three straight matches to give him belief in winning this Third Round match.

The only previous clay court match was won by Frances Tiafoe in 2022, but he was a fortunate winner on that day having created half of the Break Points that his compatriot had against him.

Credit has to be given to both players for the solid wins they have earned at the French Open in 2025, and that will give them the confidence to take into this match. It feels like one that will need four or maybe even five sets, but Sebastian Korda has had more recent success at Roland Garros and that may still be a factor.

In recent matches between the pair, Sebastian Korda has looked the stronger player and his pre-tournament form does feel like an edge in his favour.

Hamad Medjedovic - 3.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: The best win that either of these players have produced in the tournament is the one that Daniel Altmaier secured over Taylor Fritz. This upset has opened up this little section of the draw and the opportunity to earn a spot in the second week of a Grand Slam comes with huge Ranking points, as well as being a confidence builder.

That is the opportunity for Daniel Altmaier and Hamad Medjedovic with both outside of the top 60 in the World Rankings at the start of the French Open.

Pushing inside those positions lead to entry into bigger events and the feeling is that the 21 year old Hamad Medjedovic is going to be the player who came come through this match.

It is the younger player who has gotten a bit more out of serve on the clay compared with Daniel Altmaier and that could be key, especially with both having similar kind of levels on the return. There is plenty of experience that Altmaier can call upon, which is a huge help, but his clay numbers have taken a serious dent when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents.

Unsurprisingly the same can be said for Hamad Medjedovic, but his numbers remain pretty significantly stronger than the opponent and he looks the right player to back in this tough Third Round of action on Friday in the French capital.

These players met on the hard courts earlier this season, also in France, and it was Hamad Medjedovic who came through in three competitive sets. However, it was a match in which he had 10 Break Points compared with 4 for Daniel Altmaier and the expectation is that the Serb will have the superior number in this one, which should eventually tell on the scoreboard, even if the tournament in general has flown in the face of the numbers produced by players.

MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda

Hamad Medjedovic - 3.5 Games

French Open Update: 5-14, - 9.56 Units (19 Units Staked, - 50.32% Yield)