Whether it is some questionable late officiating, or teams blowing monster leads, it has been a Second Round where the NBA product has really been in the limelight and without necessarily interesting viewers as much as it should.
Living, or dying, by the three point shot has become such a feature of the sport, but there are times when it has produced truly ugly performances. On Sunday the Thunder and Nuggets combined to hit 2/33 three pointers taken in a horrible first half and you can see why ratings are down across the board when games are all played in very similar ways.
It also means relying on shooters to perform and that makes the NBA Picks that much more difficult to negotiate and it has been a real down period during this Playoff run.
Every Series is going to have a Game 5 to be played, so the Conference Finals are set to start next week, and we could see at least one upset through the Second Round after the Cleveland Cavaliers fell into a 1-3 hole.
The Oklahoma City Thunder may also be in some danger at 2-2 with the 2023 Champions Denver, although the Thunder have looked the better team and have got home advantage back following a split of two games hosted by the Nuggets.
NBA Playoffs 2025- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (May 13th-20th)
Tuesday 13th May
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: Just when you think you have an idea of where this Series is heading, the Cleveland Cavaliers came out and produced an embarrassing first half effort.
They had dominated the previous two games, albeit having to settle for a split, and the Cavaliers looked to have momentum with the injured trio of Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter and Evan Mobley back in the rotation.
None of those players covered themselves in glory and the task looks to have become even greater for the Cleveland Cavaliers after Donovan Mitchell was forced to miss the second half of Game 4. It has been Mitchell keeping the Number 1 Seed from completely unravelling, but without his Offensive firepower, Game 4 got away from the Cavaliers and they are now on the brink of elimination.
Returning home may give the team a boost, but the Cavaliers lost both games played here in the Series and all eyes are on Donovan Mitchell and whether he will be able to suit up.
The MRI will take place on Monday to determine his availability and it will be that much tougher for the Cavaliers if Donovan Mitchell is forced to sit out.
After a couple of poorer outings, the Indiana Pacers regained control of the Series by making the necessary adjustments and they continue to operated as a dangerous Offensive outfit. Spreading the ball around and exploiting the holes in the Defensive scheme helped the Pacers dominate from the opening tip on Sunday evening and they will have little fear of trying to win another road game.
Turnovers were critical in the win on Sunday and it may be asking too much for the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover this mark, especially if Donovan Mitchell is limited at best.
Favourites have not had the best time covering in Game 5 of the Second Round in recent years and those being asked to lay at least 5.5 points are just 11-17 against the spread in this situation.
Teams bouncing back from heavy losses have tended to play well in Game 5, but the Cleveland Cavaliers have been hit hard throughout this Series and they may have to battle right to the wire to simply win, with the cover looking that much tougher to achieve.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Are there fatigue issues at play in this Series?
Playing in Denver is always tough, but back to back games hosted by the Nuggets and the early start for the Game 4 clash all factored into the performance of the two teams. There is a bit more rest time before Game 5, which is played back in Oklahoma City, and the top Seed in the Western Conference showed they can win 'clutch' games just as much as they can blow teams away.
This could be a pivotal moment for the Thunder who have to be very happy with how they are performing Defensively, especially with room for improvement on the Offensive side of the court. They have not found it easy against this Championship-hardened Denver team and aside from the Game 2 blowout, it has been an Offensive struggle for the Thunder.
They can thank their Defensive intensity for levelling up this Series and Oklahoma City have to be excited with the way they have controlled and contained Nikola Jokic. You are never going to shut him down, but the Thunder are forcing turnovers and not allowing Jokic to feel any kind of comfort on the court, which is leading to the Serb to push a little too hard.
Denver know they need Nikola Jokic at his best with the others around him contributing in fits and spots, but not showing the consistency that may be needed to win this Series.
The under has been the play in the last two games as the accumulation of basketball has built up and that may be the case again in Game 5.
You can never tell when the Oklahoma City Thunder are ready to produce an Offensive masterclass, but it has been a tough Series for the top Seed. Memories of 2024 are perhaps weighing them down a little bit too and both Defensive units will feel they can put enough stops on the board to give their team an opportunity of winning.
The total number has dipped significantly from Game 3, but it may not have gone far enough to avoid a third straight 'under' from coming through.
Wednesday 14th May
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: No one can ever enjoy seeing an athlete go down with an injury and Jayson Tatum's MRI is going to determine how long the top Boston Celtics player is going to be missing. Not many expect him back for the Playoffs, never mind this Series, but the clearly suffering Tatum could be missing for several months if the injury is nearly as serious as it looked.
The Boston Celtics blew yet another big lead in the second half as they fell to 3-1 behind in this Second Round Series and the defending Champions return home looking to stave off elimination.
Being able to do that without Jayson Tatum is going to be extremely challenging, especially after Tatum was putting together the best performance in the Series in Game 4 and all of the pressure is on his team-mates. They did win eight of ten regular season games that were missed by Tatum and Boston also earned a win over Orlando in the post-season without him, but this is a much sterner test and the Celtics have to be much, much better Defensively if they are going to at least force a Game 6 back at Madison Square Garden.
That was the talk in the Boston locker room having failed to make any kind of stand in the second half of the Game 4 loss and allowing the New York Knicks to have their best Offensive performance of the Second Round by some distance. Losing Jayson Tatum will mean adjustments need to be made on this side of the court having given up too many Offensive Rebounds in Game 4 and the Boston Celtics have to use the energy of the home crowd to try and avoid becoming the latest defending Champion that has failed to reach the Conference Finals in the following season.
New York will feel they have the chance to close the Series as long as they still within touching distance of the Celtics going into the Fourth Quarter.
Clutch play has been the key for the Knicks throughout the Playoffs, but they will just have to be careful about thinking too far ahead or believing they have knocked the fight out of the Celtics, especially with Jayson Tatum expected to be sidelined.
Credit has to be given to the Knicks for fighting back as they have, but it does mean they have been at least 14 points behind in each of the four games played in the Second Round. They will accept that the Boston Celtics can get streaky, but the Knicks arrive here knowing that the favourite has struggled to cover the spread in Game 5 of the Second Round in recent years.
Hosts set as big favourites have had their issues, but the spread is down considerably from Game 1 and 2 after Tatum's injury. This has to be something that the Boston Celtics take inspiration from as they look to keep the Series alive and there remains a feeling that the Celtics will be in a position to have a big lead at some point in Game 5.
They have not been able to close the Knicks down, but you have to believe Boston will double down on the Defensive intensity in this one back at home. The Celtics have not allowed New York to score more than 100 points through the first three games of the Series (in regulation anyway) and the defending Champions may have one last big effort left in them.
Teams that have lost by at least 7 points in Game 4 have bounced back with an 18-6 record against the spread in the last twenty-four occasions that has happened and this Boston team is still good enough to force one more game at Madison Square Garden.
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Pick: As soon as Steph Curry left Game 1 with a hamstring issue, the Series took a major shift in favour of the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may have lost the opening game, even with Curry playing just 13 minutes, but Minnesota have been the much better team in the last three games and now stand one win away from a return to the Western Conference Finals.
Draymond Green spoke about not wanting to rush Steph Curry back and instead for the Golden State Warriors to fight for as long as needed before their best player can return to the rotation.
There has been nothing wrong with the effort being put in by the Warriors, but without Curry, the Offensive side of the court has been a real struggle.
The final scoreboard has looked close in the last couple of games, but Minnesota Timberwolves had a 20 point lead in Game 4 moving into the Fourth Quarter and they were never in danger of dropping any of the last three games. Unlike Golden State, the team are looking healthy and in rhythm and the Timberwolves will be looking to close out another veteran, Championship team in five games having done the same to LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the First Round.
Being back at home to close the show gives Minnesota the edge and they have been much more comfortable than the Golden State Warriors on both sides of the court. Adjustments made in the second half in Game 4 saw the Timberwolves take complete control of the Series and it is very difficult to know what kind of changes Golden State Head Coach Steve Kerr can make now.
Minnesota just need to clean up some of the turnovers that were allowed in Game 4 and doing that should put them in a position to win this one in a similar manner as to how they crushed Golden State here in Game 2.
On that day, the Timberwolves showed off their depth and they will be keen to avoid having to go back out on the road and instead prepare for the Western Conference Finals. The other Second Round Series is heading for at least six games, so it is a good chance for Minnesota to earn some rest and they might have too much for the Warriors again.
You can never completely rule out the capabilities of a team with the experience that Golden State have, but it feels a tall task without Steph Curry and that has been evident through the last three games.
Thursday 15th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets Game 6 Pick: It has been a real battle of a Second Round Series with the Oklahoma City Thunder trying to show how much they have learnt from their exit in this Round of the Playoffs twelve months ago. With some of the top Eastern Conference teams struggling, a real opportunity has opened up for those in the Western Conference and the Thunder have long looked the team best equipped to win a Championship.
Proving that on the court is always the challenge and the Thunder are being given everything they can handle by the 2023 Champions Denver Nuggets, although the younger Oklahoma City team may feel they have broken the back of the Series with the pivotal Game 5 win.
That makes it back to back wins for the Thunder to take a 3-2 lead, but it is also the manner in which they were able to win Game 5 that feels very important. They were down double digits in the Third Quarter and as many as 8 points behind with less than eight minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter, while the Thunder then closed with a strong run to show they can come up trumps in the clutch for a second game in a row.
Oklahoma City have shown a real confidence in their depth and you do have to wonder how much the Denver Nuggets have left, even as they prepare to host Game 6 of the Series.
Having struggled at times in the Series, Nikola Jokic produced a massive game for the Nuggets with 44 points scored and 15 boards brought in, but the Thunder were happy to restrict those around the Serb. Jamal Murray played his part, but Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook were a combined 11/39 from the field with 27 points scored and all are going to need to be a lot better if the Nuggets are going to be able to force a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City.
The lack of rest and recovery between games makes that challenging and the two teams may not be as strong as they were Offensively in the last game. Even then, the total points came up short of the line set and we could see something similar in Game 6.
The last fourteen Game 6s played in the Second Round have finished 10-4 in favour of the 'under', while Denver may take some encouragement from the way they have been pushing the Thunder in the last three games. Stronger Defensive effort may be needed to slow down the three point efforts from the Number 1 Seed, which proved to be very important to the final outcome in Game 5, and we could see a bit more fatigue built up in this one.
It can only aid the chances of this Game 6 finishing below the total points line set and that is the play for a second straight time in this Series.
Friday 16th May
The Second Round of the Playoffs are coming to a close and it has been a frustrating Round for the NBA Picks.
It really hasn't helped that a meaningless bucket at the end of another Minnesota-Golden State game has turned a winning selection into a push or a losing selection. The numbers could have been considerably different with some late drama being avoided, but it is what it is and we have to focus on the two Series that are still being played with the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves waiting in the Conference Finals.
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Game 6 Pick: It should not have come as a great surprise that the defending Champions Boston Celtics had a big response to falling 3-1 down in this Second Round Series and knowing that star player Jayson Tatum has a long recovery time in front of him.
Being at home would have helped the team rally together, but they now have to travel to Madison Square Garden for Game 6 on Friday evening and forcing a 'win or go home' game back at the TD Garden is going to be a huge challenge.
There was a lot to like from Game 5 with the likes of Jaylen Brown and Derrick White helping the team open quickly.
However, the spark really came from Luke Kornet from the bench who had 10 points and 9 Rebouns, while adding 7 Blocks that really got the crowd into the game. It is the kind of impact that players can produce in the Playoffs when playing at home, but the test for Kornet is going to be backing that up in a hostile environment.
There were other big contributors on the night as the Celtics completed their blowout, but now we will see how much the defending Champions really believe in their capabilities of going much further without Jayson Tatum.
New York will not be panicking with two more shots to close out the Series, although it does feel important to try and close out a Playoff Series at home for the first time this century. The Knicks had actually kept things very close in the first half and looked primed to strike, but Jalen Brunson produced five fouls in the Third Quarter and was gone in the Fourth Quarter, while the Knicks also had Karl-Anthony Towns on the bench for long stretches.
Players like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges struggled in Game 5, but they will feel much more comfortable in the home setting and that should help the Knicks. Keeping out of foul trouble is also very important for the Number 3 Seed who know they will be hosting the Indiana Pacers in a revenge Series in the Eastern Conference Finals if they can beat the Celtics.
Looking too far ahead is not something to you come to expect from the Coaching staff of the Knicks and this is a team that will want to try and avoid being down double digits again. They have shown their ability to fight back, but a Tatum-less Boston team should be more manageable for the New York Knicks to deal with now that some of the emotion has been used up.
Madison Square Garden can create some pressure on the home team when the expectations are high, as they will be on Friday, but it does feel like the Celtics role players will have a step back and that will afford the Knicks the opportunity to move through to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Sunday 18th May
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: The late regular season firing of Michael Malone raised eyebrows, but those involved in the decision making already felt justified when the Denver Nuggets came through a Game 7 success in the First Round of the Playoffs.
That does not mean the 2023 Champions would have been happy just to be here and they have played with a genuine belief that they could beat the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.
Game 6 saw the Nuggets put together a solid performance having lost the last two games in the Second Round Series and they have forced this elimination game opportunity. With the way the Playoffs have been shaking out, the Nuggets may feel another Championship opportunity will open up if they can upset the odds on Sunday and the team will head back to Oklahoma City with a real confidence around them.
Aaron Gordon pulled up in the Fourth Quarter, but felt pretty confident that the hamstring issue will be dealt with and he will be ready to go. The Nuggets need everyone if they are going beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they will be playing with two days of rest, which is important for a veteran team, and that should also be enough time for Jamal Murray to come through the illness that almost ruled him out of Game 6 on Thursday.
There is plenty of pressure on the young Oklahoma City Thunder and they need a couple of players to come out of a relative slump as they bid to work their way into the Western Conference Finals. Another Second Round defeat in the post-season would be tough to swallow and that does build pressure around a team that missed the first close out opportunity that was available to them.
Adjustments can be made with two days between games, and the Thunder have shown they can come through tough moments to win important games. We may need to see all of that again if they are going to match expectations and surpass the Playoff run of 2024, but it may prove to be another game in which the Oklahoma City Thunder are pushed all the way.
One blowout has been recorded by the Thunder, but the rest of this Series has been incredibly competitive and that may not change.
The last twelve Second Round Series that have had a Game 7 has seen the Game 6 winner go 10-2 against the spread, while the favourite is just 4-8 against the spread. The scoring came thick and fast early in Game 6, which contributed to a relatively comfortable 'over', but Game 7s have tended to be tighter affairs and that makes the points being given to the Denver Nuggets all the more appealing.
Avoiding getting into a hole when the Thunder are rolling is key, but enough has been seen from the Nuggets to believe they can keep this competitive and have a late opportunity to perhaps even upset the odds outright.
MY PICKS: 13/05 Indiana Pacers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets Under 221 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/05 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
14/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/05 Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/05 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/05 Denver Nuggets + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)
First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
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