The opening selections in Rome produced a 1-1 record, but the tournament has only just got underway and the Second Round action from the ATP Masters event is only getting underway on Friday.
There are a couple more selections from the Friday action compared with the opening Picks made, and the hope is that we can put some early winners on the board to build some positivity and momentum to take through the entirety of the event and then onto the French Open.
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: Winning the title in Madrid has previously been followed by early exits in Rome as far as Aryna Sabalenka is confirmed and she will be looking to avoid that fate in 2025.
She has had previous successes when playing in Rome, but before last year those were in tournaments after the World Number 1 had not performed as well as expected in Madrid. Things changed in 2024 when Aryna Sabalenka reached the Final of both Masters events in the lead up to the French Open and the top Seed is more than capable of adding a first non-hard court Grand Slam title to her collection over the next few weeks.
With Iga Swiatek not looking her dominant self on the red dirt, Aryna Sabalenka may be in a position to take advantage having won that title in Madrid and reached the Final in Stuttgart. This is still a challenging surface to deal with considering the heavy shots produced by Sabalenka do not have the same kind of impact as on other surfaces, but the Belarusian is playing with confidence and belief and could make a very strong start to the Rome Masters in this Second Round match.
Anastasia Potapova has to be respected on the clay having finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons on this surface. She has a 5-1 record on the clay this year too and reached the Fourth Round in Madrid, while a decent first serve can help the World Number 34 be competitive.
Having a win on the board in Rome means the conditions should be more familiar to the lower Ranked player, but Anastasia Potapova will know the kind of test that Aryna Sabalenka provides.
They were supposed to meet in Stuttgart last month, but Potapova had to withdraw and offer Aryna Sabalenka a walkover, but their only previous meeting were on those same clay courts in 2023. On that day it proved to be a comfortable win for Sabalenka and the expectation is for her to get on top of this match once getting through some sticky opening games as the adjustment from Madrid to Rome is made.
If Aryna Sabalenka's first serve is operating at close to full tilt, she should have enough to find the breaks of serve to end up covering what is a wide spread.
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 games v Eva Lys: It has been a testing twelve months off the court for Elena Rybakina and that has to have affected her focus on her tennis.
Results are still solid enough, but Elena Rybakina has not been playing a lot of tournaments and that has seen her drop out of the top ten in the World Rankings. There are some significant points to defend over the next few weeks and so there is some pressure on the 2023 Rome Champion to put some wins on the board in her return to the event.
Injury force Elena Rybakina to miss the defence of her title, but that did not prevent her from having a run to the Quarter Final at the French Open. In Madrid she was beaten earlier than expected and so this feels like an important tournament for the World Number 12 who has shown a solid ability to play on the surface.
First up is a Second Round match against Eva Lys of Germany, a 23 year old playing at her career best World Ranking mark and looking for an upset that could take her into the top 60 for the first time in her career. Stronger results have meant having direct entry into these big tournaments and Eva Lys has a 4-3 record on the clay in 2025 following her First Round win.
However, it should be noted that Eva Lys has perhaps benefited from kind draws and she has been well beaten by Jasmine Paolini and Jessica Pegula on the surface over the last month.
Eva Lys had lost five matches in a row against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts before the win over Moyuka Uchijima in the First Round and those losses had rarely been very competitive. While she has been able to have some success on the return in the matches against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, the Eva Lys serve has been incredibly vulnerable and a player like Elena Rybakina could be on the front foot for much of this match.
With a strong serve, Elena Rybakina could keep the pressure on Eva Lys and that should see her move into a position to break the serve pretty consistently. Those can add up to help Rybakina move into the Third Round without too many stresses and she is capable of covering the line set for this match.
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Magda Linette: For a long time, Maria Sakkari was keeping her Ranking high enough by putting strong results together outside of the Grand Slam events.
Those have dried up to such an extent that she has fallen down to World Number 81 and Maria Sakkari had to Qualify to take part in the Rome Masters.
In saying that, she has won two Qualifying matches and worked her way through the First Round and that will have given Maria Sakkari some confidence moving forward. Reversing the slide down the World Rankings would be a boost for a 29 year old who may be questioning her future in the sport and another victory in this match would back up the strong showing in Madrid.
Maria Sakkari got the better of Magda Linette in Madrid and she can frank that form here.
That loss is the only clay court match played by Linette this season and the World Number 32 has always been a little inconsistent on the clay courts. She will have one good season and one setback season and it does feel like Magda Linette is a vulnerable Seed in the draw considering her lack of time spent on the red dirt in the build towards the French Open.
It will be important for Maria Sakkari to serve as well as she did when the players met in Madrid, but she should be playing with enough confidence to come through any sticky moments. The Greek player may not be operating at the level that took her to World Number 3 a little over three years ago, but Sakkari is showing better signs during this clay court swing and can secure a solid win in this Second Round meeting on Friday.
Arthur Fils - 2.5 games v Tallon Griekspoor: The soon to be 21 year old Frenchman is still trying to find the consistency that would make him a truly serious player on the Tour, but Arthur Fils continues to develop really well. At the end of April he moved into a new career high World Ranking mark of Number 14 and Fils has to be looking forward to the French Open and perhaps giving the home crowd a new player to root for.
Strong runs in Monte Carlo and Barcelona have boosted the World Ranking, but Arthur Fils was disappointingly beaten very early in Madrid.
Now he has the chance to bounce back, but Tallon Griekspoor will offer a significant test for the younger player and the Dutchman can only take confidence from reaching the Final in Marrakech and Quarter Final in Munich on the red dirt. His loss to Jack Draper in Madrid does not look too bad considering the British player made it through to the Final of that Masters event and Tallon Griekspoor has beaten Arthur Fils on the big stage of the Australian Open in January 2024.
Their most recent meeting actually came in Monte Carlo last month and on that occasion Arthur Fils dominated and deserved to move past Tallon Griekspoor. The latter was perhaps fortunate to even win a set on the day, but the doubt is raised by Arthur Fils' inconsistency on the Tour.
Both have served well on the clay courts this season and that will stand them both in good stead in their bid to reach the Third Round.
However, it is Arthur Fils who has had the edge on the returning numbers and that was also the case when the players met one another in Monte Carlo. Those can be very fine margins in which the difference can be seen and you have to believe the confidence of Fils is well placed to ensure he franks the win from Monte Carlo by producing another one here in the Second Round in Rome.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (1 Unit)
Arthur Fils - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Rome Update: 1-1, - 0.13 Units (2 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
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