The second week at the Rome Masters begins with two really busy days as the entire WTA Fourth Round is played on Monday alongside the remaining ATP Third Round matches.
Tuesday will feature all of the ATP Fourth Round matches and the big names continue to focus on putting a strong tournament in the books to lay down a marker for the French Open. We are now under two weeks away from the First Round beginning in Paris at the second Grand Slam of the season and a very open tournament is set to take place, which can only be a positive for the fans who will be attending and following over the fortnight.
The two Sunday Picks came back with a 1-1 record which means a very narrow profit is still being held onto at this last big event before the French Open gets underway. However, there is plenty of work to get through before the Tour moves through the Italian capital and the hope is that Monday can put some momentum behind the selections moving into the weekend.
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Peyton Stearns: The Rome Masters has moved into the second week and that means Fourth Round action begins for those playing in the WTA event.
This remains the last big chance to put down a marker for the upcoming French Open and some of the biggest names on the Tour remain in action.
There is no doubting the power of the Naomi Osaka name, although it has been a struggle for her to get back to the consistency that once helped her take home four Grand Slam titles. They were all won on the hard courts and playing on the clay has long been something that Osaka has struggled with, but a title has been won on the surface prior to the event in Rome and two wins here will only help the confidence.
It has to be remembered that Naomi Osaka pushed Iga Swiatek all the way in their match at the French Open in 2024 and she is capable of using a big serve to at least set things up on the slower surface compared with her favoured hard courts.
In the Fourth Round, Naomi Osaka is up against Peyton Stearns, a player who has put plenty of wins on the board in this clay court season and who is about to set a new marker for a career-high World Ranking. Last year, the 23 old American won a title on the clay and reached the Third Round at the French Open and Stearns has to be further respected for winning six of eight matches on the surface in 2025.
This should be a tough match for both and they are going to be very reliant on serving well to try and keep the opponent under pressure.
Naomi Osaka has not been quite as good on the return, but her first serve feels like a big difference maker and that may be the way this Fourth Round match develops. Both players would feel much better on the hard courts, but the performances have been solid on the clay and it may be a match where Osaka's serving gives her the edge across three sets and it could be enough to see the former World Number 1 cover this handicap mark.
Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 games v Clara Tauson: Bigger expectations are always that much tougher to be met and there is some pressure on Mirra Andreeva to deliver, even at her tender age.
Once you move into the top ten of the World Rankings, people are going to expect you to go deep into the biggest events and Mirra Andreeva has all of the qualities needed to win a Grand Slam title as soon as this calendar year. There is a target on her back though, which may mean facing opponents that bring their best tennis to the court every time they see Andreeva across the net, but the World Number 7 has shown a really good temperament.
After breezing through the first set and being pushed in the second, Mirra Andreeva was able to get on top of Linda Noskova in the Third Round. Now she takes aim at another younger player on the Tour who could be a rival for years to come, and Mirra Andreeva would to keep the wins ticking over against Clara Tauson.
Both previous wins have been relatively comfortable on the scoreboard and Andreeva may feel she has more of an edge over Clara Tauson on a clay court compared with a faster surface.
Clara Tauson has won two matches in Rome having lost the previous two matches played on the clay, and her returning numbers have not been to the level that is going to be needed to win a big Fourth Round match like this one.
Last year the World Number 23 reached the Fourth Round at the French Open, so Clara Tauson can clearly perform on the surface, but this has not been a good match up for her and Mirra Andreeva is a solid clay courter.
She should have more returning success than in the previous two matches, especially on the clay, but Tauson has to be concerned about how ineffective her serve has been in the defeats to Mirra Andeeva.
We could see more of that in this Fourth Round match and Mirra Andreeva could secure another strong win against this rival.
Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 games v Marcos Giron: Injury has just made things difficult for Hubert Hurkacz over the last several months and he has missed much of the clay court season.
However, a solid Second Round win over Pedro Martinez is a reminder of the kind of comfort that the Pole displayed on the red dirt in 2024.
Serving well is always the key for Hubert Hurkacz, but he should also be pretty comfortable with the match up against an opponent who has shown little appetite for playing on the clay courts.
Prior to the two wins in Rome, Marcos Giron had won just two of the six matches played on the clay courts in the build up to the French Open. He did win more matches than he lost on the surface two years ago, but in the main Marcos Giron accepts this is a period of time on the Tour in which he tends to suffer plenty of early defeats.
The win over compatriot Taylor Fritz will give Marcos Giron confidence and being able to handle a big server like that could set him up for more in this Third Round contest.
We know how much Hubert Hurkacz relies on his serve, but there will be considerable pressure on Marcos Giron to make sure he is looking after that aspect of his tennis. He will be well aware that in three losses to the Pole, Marcos Giron has really struggled to get himself into the Hurkacz serve and the comfort on the surface should give the Seeded player the edge.
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Jesper De Jong: He is playing at a career best World Ranking mark and Jesper De Jong has taken advantage of being given a Lucky Loser spot in the Rome Masters by winning two matches here. That means he is set for another improvement in the World Ranking from the current Number 93 next to his name and the Dutchman may feel he is playing with 'house money'.
The two wins here in the main draw have been solid victories for De Jong, but this is a huge step in terms of level of opponent now that the World Number 1 is standing in his way.
Returning from a three month suspension in front of the home fans who adore him will certainly have helped Jannik Sinner, but he will also be aware that tougher tests will be coming up. A controversial ban was accepted and so many of his peers, as well as fans, have not been happy with the deal done that allowed Jannik Sinner to compete and win the Australian Open and then return in time for the second Grand Slam of the season.
Unsurprisingly, Jannik Sinner did not have the easiest Second Round match, but the victory will help and he was able to crush Jesper De Jong at the Australian Open in 2024.
He lost just six games in cruising past De Jong and the returning numbers on a much faster surface should mean Jannik Sinner enters this match with a lot of belief and confidence.
The timing was not quite right on the return in the Second Round, but having that match under his belt should help the Italian. Jannik Sinner will feel that the match is going to be played on his terms and he has to be encouraged by the drop in service numbers produced by Jesper De Jong when he has faced a top 100 Ranked opponent on this surface over the last twelve months.
In that time frame, the likes of Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev have recorded strong wins over Jesper De Jong and Jannik Sinner may follow suit.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Rome Update: 6-5, + 0.25 Units (11 Units Staked, + 2.28% Yield)
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